Labour market reforms and the Great stagnation g Phili Philippe - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Labour market reforms and the Great stagnation g

Phili A k (CNRS CMH ENS PSL) Philippe Askenazy (CNRS-CMH-ENS-PSL) « Chaire travail » Workshop, June 2019

Italy and France: too different?

• Fig. 1: Huge educational gap. Working age population 25-64 by ISCED

l l i 2015 d 2018 Milli ( EU LFS) levels in 2015 and 2018. Millions (source: EU-LFS)

A different society

• Fig. 2: Persistent gap in women participation.

Rate in % for women aged 25 64 in 2015 and 2018 (source: EU LFS) Rate in % for women aged 25-64 in 2015 and 2018 (source: EU-LFS)

Dolce vita versus tripalium ?

• Fig. 3a: Presenteeism at work.

“O th t 12 th did

• Fig. 3b: Commuting time. “How

i t d d “Over the past 12 months did you work when you were sick?”. % of Yes (Source: 2015 European Working many minutes per day do you usually spend travelling to and from work?”. % by duration ( p g Conditions Survey) y (Source: 2015 EWCS)

The Italian productivity disease

• Fig. 4: GDP per hour worked in 2010 PPP$, 1995-2017 (source: OECD)

+7% +18% +6%

France seems a new victim (and many other OECD countries)

Productive innovation model à la Aghion et al. with

• Key parameter: the firm market power is replaced by its

bargaining power (WIP)

• Key parameter: the firm market power is replaced by its

relative bargaining power β

• β = (monopsony, labour supply, labour rules etc.)
• Low β = workers capture the productivity gains => low

margins => poor investment, no incentive to gain in productivity

• High β = low labour costs => “easy game”
• High β = low labour costs => easy game
• Moderate β = permanent wages pressures=> improving

productivity for maintaining profitability

=> U-inverted curve in β

Productivity

Hard game Easy game

β

Productivity Italy Low educated Article 18 Dependant self-employed (Parasubordinato…) Branch agreements

β

agreements

β

Productivity Italy

Fornero +Renzi’s Jobs act ?

Low educated Article 18 Dependant self-employed (Parasubordinato…) Branch agreements

β

agreements

β

Productivity France 7 million very-short term contracts in 2000 11 million in 2008 A t t t t Auto-entrepreneurs status in 2009 18 million very short in 2018 1 2 illi i t i

β

1.2 million micro-entreprises

β

Productivity

El Khomri + ’ l i il Macron’s loi Travail ?

18 million very short in 2018 1.2 million micro-entreprises

β

1.2 million micro entreprises

β