Key trends in shipping markets ESPO Conference, 2018 30 th May, 2018 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
key trends in shipping markets
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Key trends in shipping markets ESPO Conference, 2018 30 th May, 2018 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

May 26, 2023 511 likes •771 views

Key trends in shipping markets ESPO Conference, 2018 30 th May, 2018 www.drewry.co.uk Content Trade patterns How US shale is transforming oil and gas markets Iron ore shifts East Brakes on for Thermal Coal Service patterns

slide-1
SLIDE 1

www.drewry.co.uk

Key trends in shipping markets

ESPO Conference, 2018

30th May, 2018

slide-2
SLIDE 2

www.drewry.co.uk 2

Drewry Maritime Advisors – ESPO 2018

Content

  • Trade patterns

‒ How US shale is transforming oil and gas markets ‒ Iron ore shifts East ‒ Brakes on for Thermal Coal

  • Service patterns

‒ Alliances, ULCVs and liner network development

slide-3
SLIDE 3

www.drewry.co.uk

US transforms gas and oil markets

slide-4
SLIDE 4

www.drewry.co.uk 4

Drewry Maritime Advisors – ESPO 2018

Overview of global LNG trade (2012)

Qatar was the biggest LNG exporter, export volume stood at 78.0 million tonnes, 32% of total LNG

  • trade. LNG trade also gained momentum on the Russia to Asia trade lane

Source: Drewry Research Database, BP Statistics Nigeria - Europe 8.6 Mt Australia - Asia 20.7 Mt Indonesia - Asia, 18.5 Mt Qatar - Asia 48.9 Mt Algeria - Europe 11.2 Mt Qatar - Europe 23.0 Mt Trinidad & Tobago-S. and central America 7.4 Mt Russia-Asia 10.9 Mt

slide-5
SLIDE 5

www.drewry.co.uk 5

Drewry Maritime Advisors – ESPO 2018

Overview of global LNG trade (2017)

Qatar remains the biggest LNG exporter , challenged by Australia. US emerging strongly and is expected to be the third biggest exporter of LNG

Source: Drewry Research Database, GIGNL report Nigeria - Europe 8.8 Mt Australia - Asia 55.5 Mt Indonesia - Asia, 18.5 Mt Qatar - Asia 52.1 Mt Algeria - Europe 10.5 Mt US-Europe 1.8 Mt Qatar - Europe 17.7 Mt US-Asia 4.8 Mt

slide-6
SLIDE 6

www.drewry.co.uk 6

Drewry Maritime Advisors – ESPO 2018

US is expected to have total capacity of 105mtpa by 2022

Lake Charles 15mtpa

Corpus Christi T3 4.5mtpa Dominion Cove Point 5.8mtpa Elba Southern LNG 2.5mtpa Cameron LNG (T1-T3) 10mtpa Sabine Pass T1-T3 13.5mtpa (operational), T4-T5 10 mtpa (under const.) Lousiana LNG 2mtpa Texas LNG 2mtpa Corpus Christi T1-T2 9mtpa Freeport LNG 13,2mtpa

Golden Pass T1-T3 15.6mtpa Magnolia T1-T4 8mtpa

Cameron LNG T4-T5 10mtpa

Global Venture 10mtpa

Operational Liquefaction Plants Planned Liquefaction Plants Under construction Liquefaction Plants Kenai 1.6mtpa

Source: Drewry research database

slide-7
SLIDE 7

www.drewry.co.uk 7

Drewry Maritime Advisors – ESPO 2018

Overview of global LNG trade (2022)

The US is expected to become the largest LNG exporter, followed by Australia. Meanwhile, China will rise as a major LNG importer in the Asian market importing about 60 million tonnes of gas

Source: Drewry Research Database

25 105 2017 2022 (f)

USA liquefaction capacity (Mt)

22 49 2017 2022 (f)

Nigeria liquefaction capacity (Mt)

69 91 2017 2022 (f)

Australia Liquifaction capacity (Mt)

15 26 2017 2022(f)

Russia's liquefaction capacity (Mt)

20 40 60 80 100 120 mtpa Current 2022

slide-8
SLIDE 8

Overview of Global Trade – Crude Oil

Cargo volumes based on 2016 trade data

The Middle East has been largest exporter of crude.

The Middle East is the largest exporter of crude oil; it and with West Africa have been main suppliers of crude oil to Asia. The US is however becoming a prominent supplier of crude to the world amidst supply cuts enforced by the OPEC. The US Gulf refineries, which account for most of the US’s refined products production, use heavy grade for their slate, which is imported from the Latin Americas and Canada, by pipeline. The lighter crude from the US is exported to Asia and Europe. Crude from Northern sea enters Europe via the Baltic Sea.

Cargo volumes based on 2016 trade data

slide-9
SLIDE 9

www.drewry.co.uk 9

Drewry Maritime Advisors – ESPO 2018

US crude production taking off

9,243 12,133

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2022

US crude oil production (kbpd)

45.6% 2.0% 41.3% 7.2%

  • 5.0%

5.0% 15.0% 25.0% 35.0% 45.0% 55.0% 2007 2012 2017 2022

slide-10
SLIDE 10

www.drewry.co.uk 10

Drewry Maritime Advisors – ESPO 2018

Crude oil trade on major routes

xxxx

Source: Drewry Research Database, BP Statistics

29% 33% 34% 20% 30% 40% 2007 2012 2017 ME-Asia 5% 5% 4% 0% 10% 2007 2012 2017 ME-USA 12% 12% 11% 10% 11% 12% 13% 2007 2012 2017 FSU-Europe 1% 2% 4% 0% 5% 2007 2012 2017 FSU-Asia 6% 5% 6% 0% 10% 2007 2012 2017 ME-Europe

*NE Asia: Japan, South Korea, China

6% 7% 5% 0% 5% 10% 2007 2012 2017 Africa-Europe 1% 3% 4% 0% 5% 2007 2012 2017 Latin America-Asia 4% 4% 3% 0% 5% 2007 2012 2017 Latin America-USA 5% 6% 7% 0% 5% 10% 2007 2012 2017 Africa-Asia Pacific 0% 0% 0.6% 0% 1% 2007 2012 2017 USA-Asia Pacific

slide-11
SLIDE 11

www.drewry.co.uk

Iron ore shifts East

slide-12
SLIDE 12

www.drewry.co.uk 12

Drewry Maritime Advisors – ESPO 2018

Iron ore trade overview

771 1,099 1,511 2007 2012 2017

Global iron ore trade (Million Tonnes) Global iron ore imports (% share)

71% 84% 85% 20% 9% 7% 2007 2012 2017 Asia EU Other

China 84% Japan 9% South Korea 5% Taiwan 2%

China accounted more than four-fifths

  • f Asian imports in 2017

Europe imports widespread

Netherlands 25% Germany 16% France 15% UK Italy 7% Spain 6% Others 24%

Demand is growing fast and shifting East

CAGR- 7.3% CAGR- 6.6%

Asia imports by country, 2017 EU imports by country, 2017

Source: GTIS, Drewry

slide-13
SLIDE 13

www.drewry.co.uk 13

Drewry Maritime Advisors – ESPO 2018

Iron ore exports (million tonnes)

Australia and Brazil are the top iron ore exporters and contribute 80% of global trade. Very rapid growth.

24 32 42 500 1,000 2007 2012 2017

Canada

269 327 373 500 1,000 2007 2012 2017

Brazil

30 54 66 500 1,000 2007 2012 2017 74 30 33 500 1,000 2007 2012 2017

India

267 492 828 500 1,000 2007 2012 2017

Australia 55% Brazil 25% South Africa 4% Canada 3%

  • ther

11%

Share in 2017 exports Australia South Africa

Source: GTIS, Drewry

slide-14
SLIDE 14

www.drewry.co.uk

Brakes on for Thermal Coal

slide-15
SLIDE 15

www.drewry.co.uk 15

Drewry Maritime Advisors – ESPO 2018

Thermal coal trade overview

Global coal trade (million tonnes)

Sharp slowdown in coal volume growth

562 786 829 2007 2012 2017

Global coal imports (% share)

Share of the EU in coal imports is declining steeply. During 2007-12 the share was taken by the rising imports of major Asian importers, However, 2012

  • nwards minor Asian importers and Turkey is taking

up the share CAGR- 6.9% CAGR- 1.1% India 27% Japan 25% South Korea 20% China 18% Taiwan 10% Malaysia 32% Thailand 24% Philippine s 22% Pakistan 12% Vietnam 10%

Asia coal imports, 2017 (% share) Major Asian importers, 2017 Minor Asian importers, 2017

Source: GTIS, Drewry

23% 16% 12% 52% 66% 63% 10% 10% 15% 15% 9% 10% 2007 2012 2017 EU Major Asian importers Minor Asian importers Other

slide-16
SLIDE 16

www.drewry.co.uk 16

Drewry Maritime Advisors – ESPO 2018

Thermal coal imports (million tonnes)

Major importers decline or slow; minor players grow

131 122 96 2007 2012 2017 15 21 32 2007 2012 2017 294 519 526 2007 2012 2017 40 57 91 2007 2012 2017

EU Major Asian importers Minor Asian importers Turkey

  • 1.4%
  • 4.7%

12.0% 0.3% 7.7% 8.3% 7.3% 9.9%

Coal imports (million tonnes), CAGR (in %) __ : CAGR below world’s average __ : CAGR above world’s average

Source: GTIS, Drewry

slide-17
SLIDE 17

www.drewry.co.uk 17

Drewry Maritime Advisors – ESPO 2018 41 12 7 2007 2012 2017

EU thermal coal imports sources

Colombia and Russia are the EU’s major sources of coal

Share in EU imports, 2017 US Colombia South Africa Russia Intra- EU

8 25 13 2007 2012 2017 7 9 7 2007 2012 2017 24 26 27 2007 2012 2017 31 38 36 2007 2012 2017 Colombia 38% Russia 28% United States 13% EU 7% South Africa 7% Others 7%

Source: GTIS, Drewry

slide-18
SLIDE 18

www.drewry.co.uk

Alliances, ULCVs and liner networks

slide-19
SLIDE 19

19 www.drewry.co.uk

Drewry Maritime Advisors – GIC

Containership sizes double on most trades

  • · ·

Evolution of average ship sizes on major trade routes

Source : Drewry Maritime Research Source : Drewry Maritime Research

Trade Route (TEU) 1Q09 1Q12 1Q15 1Q18 Far East/N Europe 7,779 9,552 12,235 15,291 Far East/Mediterranean (direct) 5,488 6,848 8,625 10,998 Transpacific headhaul 5,079 5,869 6,740 7,828 Transatlantic headhaul 3,609 3,872 4,458 4,703 ECSA/Far East 5,074 3,240 8,314 9,236 WCSA/F East 5,100 2,681 7,207 7,751 Eur/S Africa 3,301 3,116 7,657 8,096 Far East/S Africa (direct) 5,255 3,651 7,061 5,068 Eur/W Africa (direct) 1,965 1,636 2,578 2,965 Far East/W Africa (Direct) 2,755 2,220 4,846 5,490 Asia/Mid-East and South Asia (direct) 2,926 3,692 5,594 5,409

slide-20
SLIDE 20

20 www.drewry.co.uk

Drewry Maritime Advisors – GIC

Consolidation and alliances

Major industry consolidation among companies and alliances

2017 Hapag- Lloyd UASC HL merges with UASC MOL NYK K-Line Ocean Network Express 2018 (Container Operations Only) Maersk Hamburg- Sud Maersk acquires Hamburg Sud 2016 CMA-CGM APL CMA-CGM acquires APL COSCO CSCL COSCO merges with CSCL OOCL 2017

2M Ocean THE

slide-21
SLIDE 21

21 www.drewry.co.uk

Drewry Maritime Advisors – GIC

Vessel sizes and service frequency

Vessel sizes rise and service frequency declines. Volume is being concentrated…

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18

Average vessel size (TEU)

Asia-North Europe Asia-Med 5 10 15 20 25 30 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18

Number of services (per week)

Asia-North Europe Asia-Med

slide-22
SLIDE 22

22 www.drewry.co.uk

Drewry Maritime Advisors – GIC

Port coverage: Asia – North Europe

…but extended port coverage is being maintained…

Poland Sweden Denmark Germany Netherlands Belgium France UK Le Havre Southampton Felixstowe London Gateway Dunkirk Hamburg Aarhus Gdansk Gothenburg 2M Alliance: Ocean THE Rotterdam Antwerp Zeebrugge Wilhelmshaven Bremerhaven

slide-23
SLIDE 23

23 www.drewry.co.uk

Drewry Maritime Advisors – GIC

Direct calls: Asia – North Europe

…with direct calls; received wisdom about large vessels = transhipment was wrong

2M Ocean THE

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

AE10 AE2 AE1 AE7 AE5 AE6 FAL5 FAL6 FAL2 FAL3 FAL7 FAL1 FE4 FE5 FE1 FE3 FE2

slide-24
SLIDE 24

24 www.drewry.co.uk

Drewry Maritime Advisors – GIC

Volatility

Concentration of volume creates new risks

40.0% 45.0% 50.0% 55.0% 60.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Antwerp and Rotterdam volume share (%)

Antwerp Rotterdam Linear (Antwerp) Linear (Rotterdam)

slide-25
SLIDE 25

www.drewry.co.uk

CHINA Unit D01, Level 10, Shinmay Union Square Tower 2, 506 Shangcheng Rd Pudong District, Shanghai China, 200120 T +86 21 5081 0508 SINGAPORE #13-02 Tower Fifteen 15 Hoe Chiang Road Singapore 089316 T +65 6220 9890 UNITED KINGDOM 15-17 Christopher Street London EC2A 2BS United Kingdom T +44 20 7538 0191 INDIA 4th Floor, Tower C Pioneer Urban Square Sector 62, Gurugram 122102 India T +91 124 497 4979

The primary source of market insight, analysis and advice trusted by the global shipping industry.

Robust, objective market analysis and forecasts to inform business decisions Bringing together the expertise, insight and resources clients need to achieve their commercial ambitions Tools, resources and tailored advice to support every stage of the ocean freight procurement process A truly independent investment research and advisory service

  • n companies operating within

the maritime industry Market Sectors Container Shipping Ports and Terminals Dry Bulk Gas Shipping Tanker Shipping Specialised Shipping Ship Management Logistics Management Intermodal Transport Advisory Expertise Market Analysis Strategy and Planning Market Entry Analysis Operational Due Diligence Technical Due Diligence IPO Support Advisory Expertise Ocean Freight Cost Benchmarking Ocean Freight Procurement Support Network Design and Optimisation Commercial Due Diligence Hinterland Logistics Analysis Market Sectors Container Shipping Container Manufacturing Ports and Terminals Dry Bulk Gas Shipping Tanker Shipping Advisory Expertise Credit Analysis Bond Analysis