Key Note Arjen DEIJ ETF Key note speaking points 21 century skills - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Key Note Arjen DEIJ ETF

– 21 century skills - changing demands – Where are the jobs of the future? – Linking Jobs to Qualifications – Breaking trends, building a vision for a better future – How to get there –facilitating effective lifelong and lifewide learning

Key note speaking points

21 century skills ≠ 20 century skills

World

Asia Africa Europe Germany

BiH

Russian Federation

2010

population 0-14 1,842,237 27 1,060,076 25 424,072 41 114,050 15 11,133 13 670 17 21429 15 population 15-64 4,543,439 66 2,821,198 68 571,630 55 505,284 68 54,610 66 2,606 68 103374 72 population >65 530,507 8 284,166 7 35,381 3 120,975 16 17,275 21 570 15 18815 13 total 6,916,183 4,165,440 1,031,083 740,309 83,018 3, 846 143,618

share world population

100 60 15 11 1.20 0.056 2.08

2050

population 0-14 2,034,447 21 925,669 18 771,113 32 109,036 15 9,158 13 430 13 20643 17 population 15-64 6,026,928 63 3,337,993 65 1,481,951 62 409,378 58 39,665 55 2,002 60 75477 62 population >65 1,489,570 16 901,000 17 140,111 6 190,653 27 23,743 33 900 27 24776 20 total 9,550,945 5,164,662 2,393,175 709,067 72,566 3,332 120,896

share world population

100 54 25 7 0.76 0.035 1.27 change 2050/2010 % 38 24 132

• 4
• 13
• 13
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GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENTS 2010-2050

38% MORE WORLD CITIZENS, BUT WORLD WIDE AGING SHRINKING POPULATIONS IN EUROPE SHRINKING LABOUR FORCE WORLD WIDE

Imbalances and international labour shortages and surpluses will lead to more mobility, people in Europe have to stay longer active

21 century skills

ROUTINE TASKS ARE INCREASINGLY TAKEN OVER BY MACHINES OR SOURCED OUT

Findings on 21 century skills

• Increased need for information processing skills and HL cognitive and

interpersonal skills in addition to occupation specific skills

• Access to computers and ICT is widespread and growing and ICTs are changing how

services are provided and consumed

• Focus on core skills and cross disciplinary skills integrated into the

curriculum

• More emphasis on competence as the ability to apply rather than on academic

abstract skills

• Recognising that there is more than one pathway to obtain learning outcomes
• More blended approaches to learning including in real life and work situations

From skills to jobs… Are higher skills generating more jobs?

EU Labour force 2000-2020 by qualification level

Trends in Education and Jobs in BiH 2006-2013

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Primary school and less Secondary school Higher education 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Primary school and less Secondary school Higher education

In BIH HIGHER EDUCATION IS OFFERING BETTER JOB PERSPECTIVES, BUT INCREASED ATTAINMENT LEVELS DID NOT INCREASE EMPLOYMENT

0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 2006200820102012 employment 15- 24 unemployment 15-24 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

n° HE students

Employment by attainment level

Education attainment Youth employment

Sectors likely to grow or shrink

Some sectors offer better prospects than others

Jobs in demand in Europe

41% 44% 14% 22% 78% EU Jobs in demand in care and leisure, retail, domestic services, business and finance in particular to replace existing workers

Jobs in demand in US

US 2012 Employment Matrix title 2012 2022 increase % salary

Total, All Occupations 145,355.8 160,983.7 15,628.0 10.8 $34,750 Industrial-organizational psychologists 1.6 2.5 0.9 53.4 $83,580 Personal care aides 1,190.6 1,771.4 580.8 48.8 $19,910 Home health aides 875.1 1,299.3 424.2 48.5 $20,820 Insulation workers, mechanical 28.9 42.4 13.5 46.7 $39,170 Interpreters and translators 63.6 92.9 29.3 46.1 $45,430 Diagnostic medical sonographers 58.8 85.9 27.0 46.0 $65,860 Helpers--brickmasons, blockmasons, stonemasons, and tile and marble setters 24.4 34.9 10.5 43.0 $28,220 Occupational therapy assistants 30.3 43.2 12.9 42.6 $53,240 Genetic counselors 2.1 3.0 0.9 41.2 $56,800 Physical therapist assistants 71.4 100.7 29.3 41.0 $52,160 Physical therapist aides 50.0 70.1 20.1 40.1 $23,880 Skincare specialists 44.4 62.0 17.7 39.8 $28,640 Physician assistants 86.7 120.0 33.3 38.4 $90,930 Segmental pavers 1.8 2.4 0.7 38.1 $33,720 Helpers--electricians 60.8 83.3 22.4 36.9 $27,670 Information security analysts 75.1 102.5 27.4 36.5 $86,170 Occupational therapy aides 8.4 11.4 3.0 36.2 $26,850 Health specialties teachers, postsecondary 190.0 258.6 68.6 36.1 $81,140 Medical secretaries 525.6 714.9 189.2 36.0 $31,350 Physical therapists 204.2 277.7 73.5 36.0 $79,860 Orthotists and prosthetists 8.5 11.5 3.0 35.5 $62,670 Brickmasons and blockmasons 71.0 96.2 25.2 35.5 $46,440 Nursing instructors and teachers, postsecondary 67.8 91.8 24.0 35.4 $64,850 Nurse practitioners 110.2 147.3 37.1 33.7 $89,960 Audiologists 13.0 17.3 4.3 33.6 $69,720 Dental hygienists 192.8 256.9 64.2 33.3 $70,210 Meeting, convention, and event planners 94.2 125.4 31.3 33.2 $45,810 Therapists, all other 28.8 37.9 9.1 31.7 $53,210 Market research analysts and marketing specialists 415.7 547.2 131.5 31.6 $60,300 Substance abuse and behavioral disorder counselors 89.6 117.7 28.2 31.4 $38,52

In US health and construction jobs offer great prospects

Jobs in demand in Canada

Priority Occupations in Canada

Restaurant and Food Service Managers Psychologists Primary Production Managers (Except Agriculture) Social Workers Professional Occupations in Business Services to Management Chefs Insurance Adjusters and Claims Examiners Cooks Biologists and Related Scientists Contractors and Supervisors, Carpentry Trades Architects Contractors and Supervisors, Mechanics Trades Specialist Physicians Electricians (Except Industrial and Power System) General Practitioners and Family Physicians Industrial Electricians Dentists Plumbers Pharmacists Welders and Related Machine Operators Physiotherapists Heavy-Duty Equipment Mechanics Registered Nurses Crane Operators Medical Radiation Technologists Drillers and Blasters – Surface Mining, Quarrying and Construction Dental Hygienists and Dental Therapists Supervisors, Oil and Gas Drilling and Service Licensed Practical Nurses

Good prospects for health and construction jobs in Canada, where there are also good

• pportunities in business, catering, and mining

Sought after: good doctors

• German’s health market could do with another 5,000 doctors. Both clinics and doctors’

surgeries are finding it difficult to find successors. Urgently needed: experts in technology, IT, and science

• Numerous developments in the natural sciences, IT, mathematics and technology have

made the German economy very successful. Companies are looking for qualified staff in this area, hence job prospects are promising. Wanted: innovative engineers

• There are vacancies in many technology-driven companies in Germany. Right at the top of

the wish list of many businesses are specialised mechanical and automotive engineers, as well as electrical engineers. In demand: Experts with vocational qualifications

• If you are a professional with vocational qualifications, you will not require a university

degree to work in Germany. For EU citizens with vocational qualifications that are recognised in Germany, employment prospects are currently good. Since July 1, 2013,

citizens from non-EU countries holding vocational qualifications have also been able to take up employment in Germany. Jobs in Germany

• In many countries the relative share of higher level jobs is

increasing, but often less than the number of higher educated people coming on the labour market. Many of them therefore end up in intermediate or lower level jobs.

• Over education is increasing and under education is decreasing
• There is a need for professionals rather than for generalists.
• What people choose to learn matters.

Findings on 21 Century skills

From Jobs to Qualifications

A new concept of qualifications

Traditional qualifications for initial training Determined by providers Based on curriculum Learning in a set context Used for first job entry Focused on young learners Foresee mainly vertical progression Overseen by a single authority, often MoE led Only full qualifications recognised Modern qualifications for lifelong learning Defined by stakeholders Based on learning outcomes Alternative pathways Used for different purposes, including job entry, changing jobs, further learning & career change For all types of learners Horizontal & vertical progression and mobility Involves different institutions and stakeholders Partial recognition (unitisation) key principle to facilitate validation of non-formal and informal learning

Labour Market

developing qualifications

Labour Market

Anticipation of Skills Needs

developing qualifications

Labour Market

Anticipation of Skills Needs OS1 OS2 OS3

Labour Market

Anticipation of Skills Needs OS1 OS2 OS3

developing qualifications

Educational Policy Objectives

Labour Market

Anticipation of Skills Needs OS1 OS2 OS3

developing qualifications

Educational Policy Objectives

Labour Market

Anticipation of Skills Needs OS1 OS2 OS3

Access & Progression

developing qualifications

Educational Policy Objectives

Labour Market

Anticipation of Skills Needs OS1 OS2 OS3

Access & Progression

Qualification Types

developing qualifications

Educational Policy Objectives

Labour Market

Anticipation of Skills Needs OS1 OS2 OS3

Access & Progression

CBQ

Qualification Types

developing qualifications

Educational Policy Objectives

Labour Market

Anticipation of Skills Needs OS1 OS2 OS3

Access & Progression

CBQ

• Spec. Cert

Qualification Types

developing qualifications

Educational Policy Objectives

Labour Market

Anticipation of Skills Needs OS1 OS2 OS3

Access & Progression

CBQ

• Spec. Cert

2ndary VQ

Qualification Types

developing qualifications

Educational Policy Objectives

Labour Market

Anticipation of Skills Needs OS1 OS2 OS3

Access & Progression

Qualification Types

CBQ

• Spec. Cert

2ndary VQ

Qualification Standard

developing qualifications

Educational Policy Objectives

Labour Market

Anticipation of Skills Needs OS1 OS2 OS3

Access & Progression

Qualification Types

CBQ

• Spec. Cert

2ndary VQ

Qualification Standard Final Assessment

developing qualifications

Educational Policy Objectives

Labour Market

Anticipation of Skills Needs OS1 OS2 OS3

Access & Progression

Qualification Types

CBQ

• Spec. Cert

2ndary VQ

Qualification Standard Final Assessment

Education Standard Core curriculum School curriculum

Taught curriculum

developing qualifications

Educational Policy Objectives

Labour Market

Anticipation of Skills Needs OS1 OS2 OS3

Access & Progression

Qualification Types

CBQ

• Spec. Cert

2ndary VQ

Qualification Standard Final Assessment

Education Standard Core curriculum School curriculum

Taught curriculum

Further Studies

developing qualifications

Educational Policy Objectives

Labour Market

Anticipation of Skills Needs OS1 OS2 OS3

Access & Progression

Qualification Types

CBQ

• Spec. Cert

2ndary VQ

Qualification Standard Final Assessment

Education Standard Core curriculum School curriculum

Taught curriculum

Further Studies

Feedback from and about graduates

developing qualifications

Using NQFs for reforming vocational qualifications

• Few partner country vocational certificates are currently issued against achievement of

specific learning outcomes, most qualifications are still based on completing curricula

• QFs are reform tools for VET, implying “regulated frameworks” to be populated by “quality

assured” qualifications.

• Partner countries started introducing occupational standards to define new VET

qualifications, but occupational standards can not be translated easily into qualifications.

• Qualification types are a tool for developing different kind of (vocational) qualifications
• Important to deal with qualifications that are beyond the responsibility of Ministries
• f Education, in particular for adult learning.
• Are all the stakeholders involved/consulted?

Findings

• The link between the NQF and qualifications is important. No need for empty

frameworks.

• Clarify what a qualification is, how different is it from EQF definition?
• Avoid an educationally oriented approach; departing from the curriculum, try to start from

identified needs from labour market and learners

• A real effort is needed to accommodate stakeholders beyond MoEs

QFs Tools with Vision? Breaking trends, using foresight and building a vision for a better future

Foresight

Assist the accession countries to formulate a shared vision for skills 2020, with priorities and a roadmap. Skills will be in the centre of the foresight component, addressing the question:

Which skills should we (in our country) develop towards 2020, and how can these skills be generated by the education and training system?

ETF is working together with national policy leaders and stakeholders to define what should be achieved in the mid-term, by 2020. What are possible, feasible and preferred options, based on resources and capacities? How the education and training system should be adapted in order to produce the necessary skills.

• Foresight: a medium-term vision for skills, with re-conciliated

priorities of different strategies as well as a road-map, endorsed by key stakeholders

• Review of Institutional Arrangements : a prioritized and

agreed capacity development plan for institutions in charge of HRD

• Monitoring: a tool for the assessment of progress towards the

vision for skills 2020 will be finalised.

• Regional: regional cooperation and mutual learning enhanced,

in line with SEE Strategy 2020 in cooperation with RCC

35

FRAME expected results

Anticipation National and international labour supply and demand projects, where existing

36

Drivers Macro-economic trends, innovation, research, demography and migration, foreign direct investments, finance and politics EU integration Europe 2020 and SEE strategies IPA funds, education and employment specific EU benchmarks Dimension Social cohesion, equal opportunities, competitiveness and growth, territorial coherence, sustainable development Strategies Coherent national, regional and sectoral strategies with skills relevance

FRAME APPROACH

Skills Vision for BiH

Vision formulated under FRAME “Bosnia and Herzegovina, a state and member of the EU, is a prosperous and competitive modern society, with an effective, flexible and inclusive system for the continuous development of knowledge and skills, adapted to the needs of an open, global and sustainable economy, providing all its inhabitants with a safe and happy place for living.” Vision formulated for QF in BiH The Qualifications Framework in Bosnia and Herzegovina (QF BiH) will allow every citizen the acquisition of recognised and identifiable qualifications harmonised with and comparable to European ones, as well as access to lifelong learning; it will improve competitiveness and social inclusion, links to the European labour market and education area. It will also contribute to the development of an education system linked to the labour market, as well as economic and societal development of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The QF in BiH is part of a larger set of measures to support BiH to develop the skills needed for more prosperity

How to make Visions come true through lifelong & lifewide learning

Tool box: Skills anticipation, qualifications frameworks, recognition of prior learning, quality assurance arrangements What kind of tools can we use to promote the quality and efficiency of lifelong learning? Building partnerships Quality providers with special attention to teachers and trainers Information about opportunities and guidance and counselling Sustainable funding Building Lifelong learning systems

Learning from each other

All countries have started, let us break the trends and create better opportunities Let’s share experiences in

• NQF development and implementation,
• recognition of qualifications,
• how to incorporate labour market needs into the

vocational education system.