Key Issues in Agricultural Science Professor John Beddington - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Key Issues in Agricultural Science Professor John Beddington Professor John Beddington Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government and Head of the Government Office for Science 5 January 2010 5 January 2010 The Frank Parkinson Lecture Oxford
Key Issues in Agricultural Science
Professor John Beddington Professor John Beddington Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government and Head of the Government Office for Science
5 January 2010 5 January 2010 The Frank Parkinson Lecture Oxford Farming Conference
Post Copenhagen? Post Copenhagen?
The Copenhagen Accord provided a commitment to hold the increase in global temperatures below 20C, but key questions remain: y q
practices in mitigation and practices in mitigation and adaptation? H i d i i
support the farming industry?
to fill the technology gaps?
Climate change is only part of a Climate change is only part of a Perfect Storm Perfect Storm of global events
Perfect Storm Perfect Storm of global events
Increased demand 45% by 2030 (IEA)
Energy Energy
population 2 I i l l f
Climate Change
urbanisation
Water
Increased demand 30% by 2030
Food
Increased demand 50% by 2030
g g alleviate poverty
(IFPRI) (FAO)
Key questions Key questions
equitably healthily and
Increased demand 45% by 2030 (IEA)
Energy
equitably, healthily and sustainably?
Energy
demands on water?
energy to supply the growing
Climate Change
energy to supply the growing population coming out of poverty? 4 Can we do this whilst
Water
Increased demand 30% by 2030
Food
Increased demand 50% by 2030
mitigating and adapting to climate change?
(IFPRI) (FAO)
science help in preventing and adapting to this perfect storm scenario?
Impacts of global temperature Impacts of global temperature rise rise
PROBLEMATIC
rise rise
DISASTROUS
stress
extinctions around the globe
Europe + 2 Europe + 2°C
2 P d ti f
some cereal crops may increase (green ring) ring)
patterns (blue ring)
as frequent (red ring) as frequent (red ring)
across Europe could b h 6°C be as much as 6°C warmer (pink ring)
Source: Met Office
Europe + 4 Europe + 4°C
danger (grey ring) danger (grey ring)
in river and t fl (bl stream flow (blue ring)
and storm surges (green ring) 11 Drought in
Mediterranean basin (red ring)
Europe up to 8 °C ( i k i ) warmer (pink ring)
Source: Met Office
Climate change effects on the Climate change effects on the UK UK UK UK
Changes in mean precipitation to 2080, 50% probability estimate
Winter S Winter Summer
Source: UKCP09
Increased demand for food Increased demand for food
World food requirements
4000.00 4500.00 Milk and dairy (excl butter) Meat (carcass weight) 3000.00 3500.00
s o f fo
Vegetable oils, oilseeds and products Pulses Sugar R t d t b 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00
illio n T
n es
Roots and tubers Cereals, food 500.00 1000.00
M i
0.00
1969/71 1979/81 1989/91 1999/01 2030 2050
W ld f d d ti t i b 50 % b 2030 t
Source: FAO / UN
World food production must rise by 50 % by 2030 to meet increasing demand (Source: UN 2008)
The problem of land The problem of land availability availability availability availability
More people means less cultivated land per person for food, feed, (agro)- fuel and fibre production fuel and fibre production
2030 – 8.3 bn people 2030 – even less 2030 – even less farmland per person
Demand for biofuels: potential Demand for biofuels: potential competition with food? competition with food? competition with food? competition with food?
Ethanol production
mostly from grain feedstocks except for Brazil Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2017
The challenge for agriculture The challenge for agriculture Need: 50% more production on 50% more production on less land, with less water, using less energy fertiliser using less energy, fertiliser and pesticide … b 2030 …by 2030 … whilst not increasing GHG emissions
The Challenge: The Challenge: Increasing fresh water use Increasing fresh water use Increasing fresh water use Increasing fresh water use
Source: United Nations Environment Programme 2008
The Challenge: The Challenge: Diseases in crops and livestock Diseases in crops and livestock Diseases in crops and livestock Diseases in crops and livestock
Current losses due to pests and diseases worldwide Major livestock diseases:
Maize Rice Potatoes Wheat
ercentage lo
Pe
(Oerke, 2006)
The Challenge: The Challenge: Soil management Soil management
Areas potentially at risk from il i Carbon Dioxide equivalents stored in UK f t d il
Soil management Soil management
soil erosion UK forests and soils
Source: Defra Source: Boardman, J. and Evans, R. (2004). Soil Erosion in Europe. Source: Defra
Opportunities for science Opportunities for science and engineering and engineering and engineering and engineering
i ld th h d ht t l d yields through drought tolerance and pest resistance
fertilisers and pesticides
protection in the field and to store crops safely
Plants grow in an oasis next to the desert in Dunhuang, Gansu province
manage soil
Techniques and technologies from many disciplines, ranging
g
Benefits examines the contribution of
from biotechnology (including plant genomics and genetic modification) and engineering
biological sciences to food crop production
) g g to nanotechnology will be needed
The Challenge: Regulation on The Challenge: Regulation on biotechnology and GM biotechnology and GM
Global area of biotech crops 1996-2008 (million hectares)
biotechnology and GM biotechnology and GM
140 100 120 60 80 ctares illion) 20 40 60 Hec (m 20 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
25 countries that have adopted biotech crops
Source: ISAAA, 2008
Year
Regulation should be proportionate Regulation should be proportionate and evidence based and evidence based and evidence based and evidence based
“All substances are poisons there All substances are poisons, there is none which is not a poison. The right dose differentiates a poison from a remedy.” Paracelsus, 1493-1531 ,
Risk = Hazard x Exposure
Food research is complex Food research is complex and multi and multi-disciplinary disciplinary and multi and multi-disciplinary disciplinary
Source: Food 2030, Defra, Jan 2010
UK food research needs UK food research needs a co a co-ordinated strategy
a co a co ordinated strategy
Areas of Focus: Areas of Focus:
collaboration
(e g skills translation) (e.g. skills, translation)
UK food research UK food research
Government food research spend 2008 / 09
UK is recognised internationally for its research
g
modelling
Food safety
Estimated total spend = £415m (from £408m in FY07/08) (from £408m in FY07/08)
Source: UK Government Food Research and Innovation Strategy, Jan 2010
Research Skills Research Skills
Perceived supply gaps in niche skills base:
crops, plant physiology, pathology and general botany, plant-soil interactions, d i t l / t bi l weed science, entomology/pest biology, chemicals and pesticides, agricultural engineering, post-harvest storage, soil science and conservation agricultural science and conservation, agricultural economics;
veterinary microbiologists/pathologists/ veterinary microbiologists/pathologists/ parasitologists, animal genetics, animal physiology and nutrition;
Fish production freshwater taxonomists/ecologists; and
management, wildlife conservation. a age e , d e co se a o
Source: Food Research Partnership Working Group
Mitigating GHG emissions Mitigating GHG emissions
Areas of Focus:
For example, % change in emissions per tonne product through genetic improvement (1988-07)
systems and evaluation tools to reduce
CH4 NH3 N20 GWP100 Layers
Broilers
10
emissions;
agricultural waste; and post-harvest t h l
Broilers
10
Pigs
Dairy
technology;
from renewable agricultural sources; h i bl d d
Beef Sheep
Route of Livestock Emissions % contribution Enteric fermentation 39
harnessing renewable energy and reduce
t t i d ti i t
Enteric fermentation 39 Manure CH4 4 Manure N2O 3
strategies; reduction in water usage; evaluation of water footprint on farm; and
i i ) d th h i l i t
Indirect eg Energy for feed 53 Sources: Project for Defra by Genesis Faraday and Cranfield University (AC0204), 2008; Gill, 2009
inorganic) and other chemical inputs.
Sustainable Ecosystems Sustainable Ecosystems
Changing world agricultural practice
Areas of Focus:
approaches to approaches to land management practices;
Maintenance of natural resources;
competition for competition for farm land;
ecosystems ecosystems services;
Sustainable food production and Sustainable food production and supply supply – – Crop Production Crop Production pp y pp y p
Production threatened by climate change For example, range and severity of phoma stem canker increased by global warming
Areas of Focus:
Production threatened by climate change
Enhanced nutritional composition;
pests, disease and weeds; Enhancing tolerance to abiotic
stresses;
breeding programmes; breeding programmes;
diseases and insect pests;
legume crops; and
Source: Rothamsted Research 2007
Sustainable food production and Sustainable food production and supply supply -
Livestock Production pp y pp y
Areas of Focus: Rates of genetic change expected in
improved yield, quality, and welfare;
3 5
Rates of genetic change expected in farm livestock ;
use of rare breeds;
2 2.5 3 3.5 % of mean)
endemic and exotic diseases;
0 5 1 1.5 2 netic gain (%
Improved diets and associated management systems;
0.5 Poultry Pigs Sheep Beef Gen
Reduced impact of GHG emissions; and
and surveillance of
Expected response to selection for growth rate
and surveillance of animal diseases.
Innovation Chain Innovation Chain
We need to…
relationships with users at each stage stage
communications channels and communications channels and networks h d t d th ti l t t
for farmers
A co A co-
and innovation strategy and innovation strategy and innovation strategy and innovation strategy
Highlights:
research programme
g Innovation Platform
scheme
Farming Futures - looking out to 2050 and will take a global view of the food g
2010