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KEY ELEMENTS OF NATIONAL FRAMEWORK ON MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE S AUT M L UBIS 9 TH AUGUST 2011 (C) (C) The he Ran ange ge of of the the D Dif iffer eren ence ce be betw twee een n Emis Emissi sion ons s in in 19 1990


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KEY ELEMENTS OF NATIONAL FRAMEWORK ON MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

SAUT M LUBIS 9TH AUGUST 2011

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Scenario Category Region 2020 2050

A-450 ppm CO2-eqb Annex I

  • 25 % to – 40 %
  • 80% to -95 %

Non-Annex I Substantial deviation from baseline in Latin America, Middle East, East Asia and Centrally- Planned Asia Substantial deviation from baseline in all regions B-550 ppm CO2-eq Annex I

  • 10% to -30%
  • 40% to -90%

Non-Annex I Deviation from baseline in Latin America and Middle East, East Asia Deviation from baseline in most regions, especially in Latin America and Middle East C-650 ppm CO2-eq Annex I 0% to -25%

  • 30% to -80%

Non-Annex I Baseline Deviation from baseline in Latin America and Middle East, East Asia

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  • Source: IPCC Working Group III, Chapter 13, Box 13.7, page 776.
  • a) The aggregate range is based on multiple approaches to apportion emissions between regions (contraction &

convergence, multistage, Triptych and intensity targets, among others). Each approach makes different assumption about the pathways, specific national efforts and other variables.Additional extreme cases – in which Annex I undertakes all reductions, or non-Annex I undertakes all reductions – are not included. The range presented here do not imply political feasibility, nor do the results reflect cost variance.

  • b) Only the studies aiming at stabilization at 450 ppm CO2-eq assume a (temporary) overshoot of about 50 ppm

(See Den Elzen and Meinshausen, 2006)

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REDUCTION IN BOX 13.7

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DIFFERENT PERIOD OF STABILIZATION LEVELS

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KATEGORI NAMAs

  • Unilateral NAMAs/Domestically Supported NAMAs

(unsupported or self supporting): autonomous mitigation actions undertaken by developing country Parties on their own to achieve certain emission reduction level without international (outside) support under the UNFCCC framework

  • Internationally Supported NAMAs: mitigation actions

by developing country Parties supported directly by developed country Parties as internationally supported mitigation actions under the UNFCCC framework

  • Credited NAMAs (credit generating NAMAs): mitigation

actions in developing countries, which generate credits to be sold on the carbon market .

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  • 1. UNILATERAL NAMAS/DOMESTICALLY SUPPORTED NAMAS

(UNSUPPORTED OR SELF SUPPORTING): AUTONOMOUS MITIGATION ACTIONS UNDERTAKEN BY DEVELOPING COUNTRY PARTIES ON THEIR OWN TO ACHIEVE CERTAIN EMISSION REDUCTION LEVEL WITHOUT INTERNATIONAL (OUTSIDE) SUPPORT UNDER THE UNFCCC FRAMEWORK

  • 2. INTERNATIONALLY SUPPORTED NAMAS: MITIGATION ACTIONS

BY DEVELOPING COUNTRY PARTIES SUPPORTED DIRECTLY BY DEVELOPED COUNTRY PARTIES AS INTERNATIONALLY SUPPORTED MITIGATION ACTIONS UNDER THE UNFCCC FRAMEWORK

  • 3. CREDITED NAMAS (CREDIT GENERATING NAMAS):

MITIGATION ACTIONS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, WHICH GENERATE CREDITS TO BE SOLD ON THE CARBON MARKET

KATEGORI NAMAs

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BAU

  • The current policy, and future if exists without

any climate change policy intervention and action,

  • Market trends and its features,
  • Associated uncertainties,
  • Evolution of supply and demand,
  • Cost effectiveness, and
  • Expected performance of the system.

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national business as usual baseline

  • Establishment of aggregated business as usual

baseline of each sector, and

  • Establishment of national business as usual

baseline (aggregated business as usual baseline).

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some important issues to be addressed in establishing NAMAs

  • Establish aggregated business as usual baseline of sectors using

sector’s development plan and future evolution of activities without explicit new climate change policy intervention and action,

  • Propose list of potential mitigation emission reduction actions of

sectors in the order according to sector’s cost effectiveness and level of implementability,

  • Integrate sector’s aggregated business as usual baseline to establish

national business as usual baseline (aggregated),

  • Construct list of national aggregated mitigation emission reduction

actions based on national cost effectiveness and level of implementability,

  • Establish NAMAs from the national aggregated mitigation emission

reduction actions in meeting the national emission reduction target, and

  • Linkage NAMAs to the UNFCCC level.

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