Kansas Comprehensive Needs Assessment
Preliminary Findings
Prepared by DATACORP
Innovative Research and Design Consultants
and PAXIS Institute
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Kansas Comprehensive Needs Assessment Preliminary Findings Prepared - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Kansas Comprehensive Needs Assessment Preliminary Findings Prepared by DATACORP Innovative Research and Design Consultants and PAXIS Institute Photo courtesy of www.forcademedia.com Study Sponsor Study Sponsor Social and Rehabilitation
Prepared by DATACORP
Innovative Research and Design Consultants
and PAXIS Institute
Photo courtesy of www.forcademedia.com
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Social and Rehabilitation Services
Kansas Department of Health and Environment
Dalyn Schmitt
Department of Revenue, Alcoholic Beverage Control Control
Kansas Department of Transportation
Kansas Bureau of Investigation
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DATACORP
Nicoletta Lomuto, M.A.
Susan Janke, M.S.
PAXIS INSTITUTE
Dennis D. Embry, Ph.D.
Estimate treatment need
Understand county needs
Understand population needs
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How many people need treatment?
Are there patterns in need and unmet need?
Where are the gaps in the system?
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Synthetic estimates
Social indicators
Capacity analysis
Gap analysis
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DSM-
IV abuse or dependence
2003 NHSDUH prevalence rates
MSA designations
Kansas demographics
Age, race, and gender calculations
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Exclude those who receive treatment
Felt a need for treatment, and and
Tried to access treatment, and and
Did not get it
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Alcohol and drug indicators (2001 – – 2004) 2004)
Reliable, valid indicators
Mean rates across years
Combined into alcohol and drug indices
Created one overall index
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Too Many Zeros Indirect Drug-Related Deaths Reliability Direct & Indirect Alcohol-Related & Direct Drug-Related Deaths Validity Liquor Licenses
Alcohol: Crashes Arrests Hospital Discharges Drugs: STDs HIV/AIDS Arrests Hepatitis B and C Hospital Discharges
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DATACORP • Innovative Research and Design Consultants
Synthetic estimates provide numbers
Unmet need liberal
Unmet demand conservative
Social indicators provide ranks
High need – – Low utilization = Biggest gap Low utilization = Biggest gap
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Strategic planning
Resource allocation
Proposal writing
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DATACORP • Innovative Research and Design Consultants
Slower growth than the nation
Some counties growing rapidly
Less diversity than the nation
Some populations growing rapidly
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10% 24,574 Adolescents 10% 200,581 Adults % in Need Number in Need
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Youth Youth Adults Adults
ADa
0 to 200 201 to 400 401 to 600 601 to 800 801 to 35,699 Estimated Number of Adults Estimated Number of Youth 0 to 100 101 to 200 201 to 300 301 to 400 401 to 4,067DATACORP • Innovative Research and Design Consultants
Adults Adults Youth Youth
Estimated Percentage of Youth 0.00 to 3.50 3.51 to 4.00 4.01 to 4.50 4.51 to 5.00 5.01 to 5.22DATACORP • Innovative Research and Design Consultants
Adults Adults Synthetic Estimates Social Indicators Index
Substance Abuse Problem Severity Index 0 to 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 40 41 to 53 Estimated Percentage of Adults 0.00 to 7.30 7.31 to 8.60 8.61 to 9.90 9.91 to 11.20 11.21 to 13.60SI = crime, hosp dc, std, HIV, alc crash SE = NHSDUH DATACORP • Innovative Research and Design Consultants
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146,206 28,651 25,724 32,077 8,092 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 Adults in Need Alcohol Only Any Drug Only Alcohol and Drugs Cocaine Methamphetamine
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10,561 7,898 6,115 3,536 1,577 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Adolescents in Need
Alcohol Only Any Drug Only Alcohol and Drugs Cocaine Methamphetamine
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Synthetic Estimates Synthetic Estimates Social Indicators Social Indicators
Alcohol Problem Severity Index 0 to 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 40 41 to 63DATACORP • Innovative Research and Design Consultants
Synthetic Estimates Synthetic Estimates Alcohol Arrests Alcohol Arrests
Rate Per 10,000 Youth 0 to 60 61 to 80 81 to 100 101 to 120 121 to 341DATACORP • Innovative Research and Design Consultants
Rate of Adults in Need Rate of Adults in Need SI Index of Need SI Index of Need
Drug Problem Severity Index 0 to 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 40 41 to 54DATACORP • Innovative Research and Design Consultants
Estimated Percentage of Youth 0.00 to 1.75 1.76 to 2.00 2.01 to 2.25 2.26 to 2.50 2.51 to 2.71
Synthetic Estimates Synthetic Estimates Drug Arrests Drug Arrests
Rate Per 10,000 Youth 0 to 15 16 to 30 31 to 45 46 to 60 61 to 88DATACORP • Innovative Research and Design Consultants
Rate of Adults in Need Rate of Adults in Need Rate of Youth in Need Rate of Youth in Need
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Rate of Adults in Need Rate of Adults in Need Rate of Youth in Need Rate of Youth in Need
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2005 2003 2002 2004 DATACORP • Innovative Research and Design Consultants
0 to 20 21 to 40 41 to 60 61 to 80 81 to 2,596 0 to 5 6 to 10 11 to 15 16 to 20 21 to 115
Number of Adults in Need Number of Adults in Need Number of Youth in Need Number of Youth in Need
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Rate Per 10,000 People 0 to 6 7 to 12 13 to 18 19 to 24 25 to 32
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Rate of HIV/AIDS Cases Per 10,000 People 0.0 to 1.8 1.9 to 2.3 2.4 to 2.8 2.9 to 3.3 3.4 to 7.7
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11,850 12,724 Adolescents 66,926 133,655 Adults Female Male
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20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 Alcohol Only Any Drug Only Alcohol and Drugs Cocaine Meth
Males Females
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Adult Males
73% 13% 14% Alcohol Only Any Drug Only Alcohol and Drugs
Adult Females
72% 17% 11% Alcohol Only Any Drug Only Alcohol and Drugs
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1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Alcohol Only Any Drug Only Alcohol and Drugs Cocaine Meth
Males Females
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Adolescent Males
40% 34% 26% Alcohol Only Any Drug Only Alcohol and Drugs
Adolescent Females
47% 30% 23% Alcohol Only Any Drug Only Alcohol and Drugs
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DATACORP • Innovative Research and Design Consultants
Heavy drinkers – 8-12% Drug dependence – 13% Non-dependent drug use other than marijuana –
26%
Sources: Bing et al., 2001; Galvan et al., 2002 DATACORP • Innovative Research and Design Consultants
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Estimates vary widely
Can be difficult to detect
Lower bound, conservative estimate: 26%
Source: Libby et al. 2006
Upper bound, liberal estimate: 79% %
Source: Besinger Besinger et al., 1999 et al., 1999
Applies to children out of home for 5 months or more
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Number of Families Served 0 to 20 21 to 40 41 to 60 61 to 80 81 to 393
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Number of Children Placed Out of Home 0 to 20 21 to 40 41 to 60 61 to 80 81 to 1,500
*
2005 0 - 8 9 - 16 17 - 24 25 - 32 32 - 53 2004 0 - 8 9 - 16 17 - 24 25 - 32 32 - 85 2003 0 - 8 9 - 16 17 - 24 25 - 32 32 - 48 2002 0 - 8 9 - 16 17 - 24 25 - 32 32 - 56Note: * - Over 1,000
Children in Foster Care Children in Foster Care Meth Lab Seizures Meth Lab Seizures
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15,365 Adolescents 157,236 Adults Number
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22% 78%
Met Need Unmet Need
37% 63%
Adults Adults Adolescents Adolescents
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Adults with Unmet Need Adults with Unmet Need Youth with Unmet Need Youth with Unmet Need
Estimated Number of Youth 0 to 150 151 to 300 301 to 450 451 to 600 601 to 2,378DATACORP • Innovative Research and Design Consultants
79% 21%
Women Women Men Men
77% 23%
Unmet Need Met Need
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66% 34%
Unmet Need Met Need
59% 41%
Females Females Males Males
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Synthetic Estimates Synthetic Estimates Social Indicators Social Indicators
Greatest Unmet Need
50 100 Finney Johnson Jackson Morton Doniphan Leavenworth Stevens Kingman Seward Grant
Greatest Unmet Need
20 40 60 80 100 Douglas Miami Stevens Leavenworth Doniphan Johnson Grant Seward Stanton Haskell
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Synthetic Estimates
Greatest Unmet Need
20 40 60 80 100 Gove Woodson Jew ell Morris Hamilton Osborne Wallace Mitchell Marshall Sheridan
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Estimated Number of Adults 0 to 200 201 to 400 401 to 600 601 to 800 801 to 28,083
Synthetic Unmet Need Synthetic Unmet Need Social Indicator Index Social Indicator Index
Substance Abuse Problem Severity Index 0 to 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 40 41 to 53
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Synthetic Unmet Need Synthetic Unmet Need Social Indicator Index Social Indicator Index
Estimated Number of Adults 0 to 200 201 to 400 401 to 600 601 to 800 801 to 28,083 Substance Abuse Problem Severity Index 0 to 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 40 41 to 53
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Synthetic Unmet Need Synthetic Unmet Need Social Indicator Index Social Indicator Index
Estimated Number of Adults 0 to 200 201 to 400 401 to 600 601 to 800 801 to 28,083 Substance Abuse Problem Severity Index 0 to 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 40 41 to 53
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Synthetic Unmet Need Synthetic Unmet Need Social Indicator Index Social Indicator Index
Estimated Number of Adults 0 to 200 201 to 400 401 to 600 601 to 800 801 to 28,083 Substance Abuse Problem Severity Index 0 to 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 40 41 to 53
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Synthetic Unmet Need Synthetic Unmet Need Social Indicator Index Social Indicator Index
Estimated Number of Adults 0 to 200 201 to 400 401 to 600 601 to 800 801 to 28,083 Substance Abuse Problem Severity Index 0 to 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 40 41 to 53
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Estimated Number of Youth 0 to 150 151 to 300 301 to 450 451 to 600 601 to 2,378
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Estimated Number of Youth 0 to 150 151 to 300 301 to 450 451 to 600 601 to 2,378
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Estimated Number of Youth 0 to 150 151 to 300 301 to 450 451 to 600 601 to 2,378
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Estimated Number of Youth 0 to 150 151 to 300 301 to 450 451 to 600 601 to 2,378
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Estimated Number of Adult Women 0 to 150 151 to 300 301 to 450 451 to 600 601 to 10,698
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Estimated Number of Adult Women 0 to 150 151 to 300 301 to 450 451 to 600 601 to 10,698
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Estimated Number of Adult Women 0 to 150 151 to 300 301 to 450 451 to 600 601 to 10,698
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Estimated Number of Adult Women 0 to 150 151 to 300 301 to 450 451 to 600 601 to 10,698
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Estimated Number of Adult Women 0 to 150 151 to 300 301 to 450 451 to 600 601 to 10,698
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Number of HIV/AIDS Cases 0 to 4 5 to 20 21 to 35 36 to 42
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190 Adolescents 2,944 Adults Number
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Adults Adults Adolescents Adolescents
Estimated Number of Youth 0 to 2 3 to 4 5 to 6 7 to 8 9 to 27DATACORP • Innovative Research and Design Consultants
58 132 Adolescents 1,123 1,821 Adults Female Male
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DATACORP • Innovative Research and Design Consultants
Twice as many men need treatment for any drug as women any drug as women
Alcohol is the most prevalent substance for adults for adults
Alcohol treatment need is about equal for men and women men and women
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About equal numbers of boys and girls need Tx
Girls are more likely to need alcohol Tx
Girls slightly more likely to need meth Tx
Adolescents more likely to need Tx for drug use than adults than adults
Adolescent meth Tx need prevalence 2.4% higher than adults higher than adults
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Most who need Tx do not get it
Adolescents receive Tx at 1.7 times the rate of adults rate of adults
Boys Tx needs are met at a higher rate than girls than girls
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Counties with largest adult Tx gap:
Grant
Seward
Leavenworth
Johnson
Stevens
Doniphan
Divided between high and low population counties
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Counties with largest adolescent Tx gap:
Sheridan
Marshall
Mitchell
Wallace
Osborne
Hamilton
All relatively low population counties
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Counties in need without a detox detox program program
Finney
Seward
Geary
Cherokee
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Finney County has high need but only provides adult OP Tx provides adult OP Tx
Hard to provide family-
based adol adol Tx Tx
Women’s Tx programs are few – – even in even in areas of great need areas of great need
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Nicole LeBoeuf Research Assistant Kelly Breeden Analyst Kirbie Brown Research Assistant Melissa Boucher Administrative Assistant DATACORP • Innovative Research and Design Consultants
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Eliminate or radically reduce intensity and rate of reduce intensity and rate of need need for treatment for treatment
Never get to place of needing treatment treatment
Get cleaned up earlier (e.g., “ “raise bottom raise bottom” ” or banish
“ “unmet demand unmet demand” ”) )
Close gap in treatment where needed needed
Reduce need for repeat treatment or relapses treatment or relapses
Reduce violent victimization
Children
Spouse/partner/ or others thers
Reduce property losses
Robbery, theft, embezzlement
Environmental damage
Reduce related morbidity and mortality
Health (e.g., cancer, cardio-
vascular, HIV, Hep Hep B or C) B or C)
Mental (e.g., “ “kindling kindling” ”, depression, bipolar, personality disorders) , depression, bipolar, personality disorders)
Reduce intergenerational “ “contagion contagion” ”
Reduce other welfare, economic and educational burdens
$58,000
$34,300
$74,100
$475,700
$894,00
$1,536,100
Pre-
birth & infancy $58,000 $58,000
Early childhood years $34,300 $34,300
Elementary school years $74,100 $74,100
Secondary & teen years $475,700 $475,700
Other adult years $894,00 $894,00
Total $1,536,100 $1,536,100
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How will your proposal address these specific policy and political goals? political goals?
What measurable effect will your proposal have on county, multi multi-
county areas or state-
level indices?
How does your proposal address issues of unmet demand, unmet need, and service surplus? unmet need, and service surplus?
What new new ways do you need to do your business/service to ways do you need to do your business/service to achieve these goals? achieve these goals?
What ways of doing business/service do you need to give up give up to to achieve these goals? achieve these goals?
How do these different ways of doing business/service change the ways you propose to business/service change the ways you propose to deliver services, be located, be staffed and be deliver services, be located, be staffed and be reimbursed? reimbursed?
What new relationships do you need to form to achieve these goals? achieve these goals?
What incentives do you propose for achieving these goals? goals?
How will you and others know that you are making progress on the goals (your local data dashboard)? progress on the goals (your local data dashboard)?
How do you have to change your management plans, products, procedures and structures to plans, products, procedures and structures to achieve these goals? achieve these goals?
What evidence do you have that your plan or proposal will work to achieve the goals? proposal will work to achieve the goals?
What can the state or others do to help you achieve the goals? (Besides writing more achieve the goals? (Besides writing more checks to you) checks to you)
Identify modifiable risk or protective factors are low counties versus high counties doing differently? counties versus high counties doing differently?
Environmental?
Enforcement?
Early screening and intervention?
Provide funding for strategies to reduce per capita need need
Provide county level incentives for reducing per capita need capita need
Legislative or Policy
Screening via health care, drivers license and arrests
Incentives for sobriety
Health care
Insurance
Business credits
Testing negative on bio-
assays
Disincentives
Variable consumption taxes
Eliminate alcohol deduction for entertainment
Variable liquor license fees based on contribution of licensee to per capita
alcohol related crimes (Australian and New Zealand research) alcohol related crimes (Australian and New Zealand research)
Get some answers:
How does the poly-
drug use of teens change treatment and prevention? (One in 18 for adults use Meth v. Alcohol; one in 7 prevention? (One in 18 for adults use Meth v. Alcohol; one in 7 adolescents use Meth versus Alcohol) adolescents use Meth versus Alcohol)
What is the “ “gender equity gender equity” ” in treatment need among adolescents in treatment need among adolescents saying about treatment and prevention services? saying about treatment and prevention services?
Identify modifiable risk or protective factors in low versus high counties versus high counties
Environmental?
Enforcement?
Early screening and intervention?
Developmental history and interventions
Synthetic Estimates of Need
Synthetic Estimates of Unmet Need and Unmet Demand Unmet Demand
Alcohol and Drug Related Arrests
Final Report
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