Joint Science Coordination Group & Working Group System-wide - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

SFERTF Science Coordination Group

Joint Science Coordination Group & Working Group

System-wide Indicators Update Thursday, October 18, 2007

Bob Doren, Joe Boyer, Joel Trexler

SFERTF Science Coordination Group

Indicator Refresher

SFERTF Science Coordination Group

Task Force Directive – SCG to develop small

set of System-wide Indicators for Restoration

SCG developed a process to identify

indicators using well established selection criteria

Ecological Indicators (Goal 1 & 2) Indicators of Compatibility (Goal 3) Indicator Gaps Provide for Independent Scientific Review

(ISR) of Indicators

Report and ISR: www.sfrestore.org

SFERTF Science Coordination Group

Four Steps

1.

Evaluate existing restoration efforts from various sources for indicators for possible application to the Task Force suite of system-wide indicators

2.

Using established guidelines select relevant indicators for Everglades Ecosystem applicability, evaluate the list of Indicators for individual and collective value and coverage of Everglades’ “FEATURES” i.e. ecosystem Regions, Characteristics, Trophic Interactions, and Functions

3.

Identify “indicator gaps”, and where feasible for the 2006 report, develop new indicators to fill identified gaps

4.

Select final system-wide suite of indicators for the 2006 biennial report and develop indicator documentation and communication proposal and identify “indicator gaps” to be filled by 2008 or beyond

SFERTF Science Coordination Group

Periphyton responds to environmental drivers very rapdly at both small and large spatial scales Crocodilians respond more slowly to environmental drivers and at larger spatial scales

“System-wide” (a spatial and temporal context)

SFERTF Science Coordination Group

Ecological Indicators (Goals 1 & 2)

1.

Periphyton-Epiphyton Evelyn Gaiser, et al.

2.

Fish Joel Trexler, et al.

3.

Roseate Spoonbills Jerry Lorenz

4.

Woodstork & White Ibis John Ogden et al.

5.

Eastern Oysters Aswani Voleti et al.

6.

Juvenile Pink Shrimp Joan Browder, Mike Robblee et al.

7.

Florida Bay Algal Blooms Joe Boyer, Chris Kelbel, et al.

8.

Florida Bay SAV Dave Rudnick, Chris Madden et al.

9.

Lake Okeechobee Littoral Zone Matt Harwell, et al.

10.

Crocodilians Frank Mazzotti, Ken Rice et al.

11.

Exotic Plants Bob Doren, Jenny Richards

Over 30 scientists are involved in this collaborative effort and receive no compensation for this work

SFERTF Science Coordination Group

Gaps in Ecological Indicators

1.

Contaminants

2.

Vegetation Landscape Pattern

SFERTF Science Coordination Group

Goal 3 Indicators for 2006

1.

Water Volume – the amount of “new” water that is

captured by the system and its subsequent distribution

2.

Salinity Intrusion in the Biscayne Aquifer –

the location of the isohalines in relation to the coast and canal stages

3.

Flood Protection South Dade Agriculture –

root zone groundwater levels related to flood risk in the area just east of the L-31N canal north of where it meets the C-111

We have identified several gaps in goal 3 indicators as well

SFERTF Science Coordination Group

8 Essentials for Measuring Success

• 1. Scientific Consensus on Ecosystem Structure & Function –

CEMS

• 2. Indicators with metrics for Ecosystem Structure or Function

(Environmental Conditions)

• 3. Baselines to establish points of comparison
• 4. Monitoring Program to collect the data for assessments
• 5. Performance Measures using metrics to compare interim and

end point results with desired outcomes

• 6. Targets to set interim or end points against which to measure

trends

• 7. Assessments to analyze the data and evaluate the progress

and results

• 8. Communication Tools to inform, advise and educate the

restoration community

SFERTF Science Coordination Group Built System Indicators Subgroup

COMMUNICATION EXAMPLES

FLORIDA BAY ALGAL BLOOMS & FISH

SFERTF Science Coordination Group

Three Tiers

From Simple to Complex

Stoplight / Key Findings Report Cards Simplified Graphics & Maps in Biennial

Assessment Reports representing data in Report Card format

Biennial Assessment Reports presenting

full data analysis and scientific theory and Publications (SFER Format – see example) (See Handouts)

SFERTF Science Coordination Group Built System Indicators Subgroup

Tier One Example

Florida Bay Algal Blooms

Stoplight - Key Findings

SFERTF Science Coordination Group

SFERTF Science Coordination Group Built System Indicators Subgroup

Tier Two Examples

Florida Bay Algal Blooms

Stoplight “Coded” Maps & Simplified Stoplight “Coded” Graphics

SFERTF Science Coordination Group

WFB CBB SBB BMB NEFB NCFB SFB MTZ

SWFS

NBB

Florida Bay Stoplight Ratings by Region

SFERTF Science Coordination Group

BMB NEFB CBB SBB

Example Simplified Graphs Illustrating Data in Stoplight Coded Format.

Box notches = 95% Confidence Interval; Box edges = 25th & 75th percentiles; Whiskers = 10th & 90th percentiles

SFERTF Science Coordination Group

North-central Florida Bay Annual chlorophyll a data from 1991 to 2006 show that in the early 1990s Florida Bay was experiencing significant algal blooms that since approximately 1994 have been less severe (and

• ther data also indicate less frequent). The early 1990s blooms were preceded by blooms that

were much worse, as result of the initial die-off of turtle grasses in the bay that began in 198?. The recent trends in chlorophyll a are not atypical of natural variation expected in this region of the bay and suggest that algal blooms in NE Florida Bay are within normal “restoration” limits. Northeast Florida Bay Annual chlorophyll a results from 1991 to 2006 show a relatively steady level of chlorophyll a from 1991 until 2005-2006, indicating a generally “green” stable condition with regard to algal blooms in this region (see map). However, recent activity including construction along US 1 in the upper keys, perhaps combined with an active hurricane season caused chlorophyll a levels to spike late in 2005 and throughout 2006. Similar hurricane activity in the past, without concomitant road construction has not caused spikes in chlorophyll a suggesting that the road construction was the mechanism creating conditions for the spikes seen in 2005-2006. Current data (May 2007) indicates that the chlorophyll a levels are back down in the “green” zone and have been so for X months. Blackwater, Manatee, Barns Sound

SFERTF Science Coordination Group Built System Indicators Subgroup

Tier Three Examples

Biennial Reports

Florida Bay Algal Blooms

Data Analyses, Theory, Modeling, Performance Measures, Metrics, Targets & Assessments

SFERTF Science Coordination Group Southern Estuaries Water Quality Conceptual Model

SFERTF Science Coordination Group

Salinity cycles in Biscayne Bay (top two panels) and Florida Bay (bottom panel)

SFERTF Science Coordination Group Built System Indicators Subgroup

Tier One Example

Fish

Stoplight - Key Findings

SFERTF Science Coordination Group

SFERTF Science Coordination Group Built System Indicators Subgroup

Tier Two Examples

Fish

Stoplight “Coded” Maps & Simplified Stoplight “Coded” Graphics

SFERTF Science Coordination Group

• +
• +

EDEN data No EDEN data

Legend greater than 0.4

+

• 0.2 to 0.2

0.2 to 0.4

+

less than -0.4

_

• 0.2 to -0.4

_

Total Fish Density

Standardized difference between

• bserved density of fish and

predicted density (O-P/P)

• Represents sampling locations

SFERTF Science Coordination Group

Total Fish

• 2
• 1.5
• 1
• 0.5

0.5 1 1.5

OBSERVED

• PREDICTED

SITE

BEFORE AFTER NSM

95% CI

Shark River Slough Taylor Slough Water Conservation Areas 3A&B

Differences Between Predicted and Observed Before, Natural System Model, and After

Where 95% confidence intervals completely overlap = green Where 95% confidence intervals partially overlap = yellow Where 95% confidence intervals do not overlap = red

SFERTF Science Coordination Group Built System Indicators Subgroup

Tier Three Examples

Fish

Data Analyses, Theory, Modeling, Performance Measures, Metrics, Targets & Assessments

SFERTF Science Coordination Group

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Days Since Dry Ln (Density + 1)

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Ln (Density + 1) Days Since Dry We have 12 year time series for fishes and macroinvertebrates at 20 sites Taylor Slough Site TS Bluefin Killifish All species summed

Logistic Model Density with DSD

Example of relationship between a performance measure (All Species & Bluefin Killifish density) and days since rewetting after last dry down

SFERTF Science Coordination Group

Depth vs. Cumulative Rain (Before Period)

y = 1.2765x + 7.4286 R2 = 0.5707

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 10 20 30 40 50 60

CUMULATIVE RAIN LAST 5 MONTHS (INCHES) SITE DEPTH (CM)

y = -0.0308x2 + 2.299x + 1.1568 R2 = 0.6954 10 20 30 40 50 60 10 20 30 40 50 60

CUMULATIVE RAIN LAST 4 MONTHS (INCHES) SITE DEPTH (CM)

Shark River Slough Site 7 Taylor Slough Site TS

SFERTF Science Coordination Group

Bluefin Killifish

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 F E B'96 F E B'97 F E B'98 F E B'99 F E B'00 F E B'01 F E B'02 F E B'03 F E B'04 F E B'05 F E B'06 L OG (DE NS ITY+1) 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 FE B'96 FE B'97 FE B'98 FE B'99 FE B'00 FE B'01 FE B'02 FE B'03 FE B'04 FE B'05 FE B'06 LOG (DE NS IT Y+1)

Shark River Slough Site 7

BEGIN IOP OBSERVED PREDICTED DSLDD

DSLDD DSLDD

Taylor Slough Site CP Management Changed

SFERTF Science Coordination Group

All Fish Summed

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 F E B'96 F E B'97 F E B'98 F E B'99 F E B'00 F E B'01 F E B'02 F E B'03 F E B'04 F E B'05 F E B'06 L OG (DE NS IT Y+1)

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 F E B'96 F E B'97 F E B'98 F E B'99 F E B'00 F E B'01 F E B'02 F E B'03 F E B'04 F E B'05 F E B'06 L OG (DE NS IT Y+1)

Taylor Slough Site CP Shark River Slough Site 7

BEGIN IOP OBSERVED PREDICTED DSLDD

DSLDD DSLDD

SFERTF Science Coordination Group

Total Fish

• 2
• 1.5
• 1
• 0.5

0.5 1 1.5

OBSERVED

• PREDICTED

SITE

BEFORE AFTER NSM

95% CI

Shark River Slough Taylor Slough Water Conservation Areas 3A&B

Differences Between Predicted and Observed Before, Natural System Model, and After

Where 95% confidence intervals completely overlap = green Where 95% confidence intervals partially overlap = yellow Where 95% confidence intervals do not overlap = red

SFERTF Science Coordination Group

ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS SPECIAL ISSUE JOURNAL

Publication date Sept-Oct 2008 Peer review of all 11 ecological indicators Guest editors: Joel Trexler, Bob Doren, Ronnie Best Publisher: Elsevier

SFERTF Science Coordination Group

Next Steps

• October 22, 2007
• First completed draft of the indicators document (using the template I sent you for

Crocodilians but developing the document according to the journal format if you want to save some time).

• Key Findings double sided page (I sent an example (Florida Bay Algal Blooms) with

the last email – also see copy of email below)

• November 1, 2007
• Names and contact information for two reviewers who have already agreed to review

your JOURNAL MANUSCRIPT.

• December 1, 2007
• Input to all authors regarding formats and color images for JOURNAL MANUSCRIPT.

This will be our last opportunity to discuss as a group what the manuscripts should look like and include and to harmonize them and the stoplight tables etc. as much as

• possible. Once you get all the comments you will have until March 17, 2008 to work
• n the manuscript.
• December Indicator Scientists Meeting (TBD)
• Develop guidelines for Independent Scientific Review Panel members for review of

the ASSESSMENT REPORT

SFERTF Science Coordination Group

• March 17, 2008 (CRITICAL DEADLINE)
• Online submission deadline for Elsevier publication in the special issue JOURNAL

MANUSCRIPT for Ecological Indicators – unfortunately if you don’t meet this deadline you won’t get published.

• April 1, 2008
• This is the date that your first draft ASSESSMENT REPORT is due for your indicator.

All ASSESSMENT REPORTS will be sent to a copy editor for format and compilation

• n this date.
• May 1, 2008
• Return of the first reviews of the JOURNAL MANUSCRIPTS to authors for revision to

address reviewer comments.

• First collation of each indicator ASSESSMENT REPORT with synthesis section into

compiled ASSESSMENT by copy editor.

• Compiled ASSESSMENT REPORT sent to Independent Scientific Review Panel for

review.

• May 15, 2008
• Independent Scientific Review Panel of ASSESSMENT REPORT recommendations

returned to authors for comment and revisions.

SFERTF Science Coordination Group

• June 16, 2008
• Second submission of JOURNAL MANUSCRIPT for authors after revisions based on

reviewer comments

• ASSESSMENT REPORT due from authors with revisions from Independent Scientific

Review Panel’s comments.

• ASSESSMENT REPORT sent to copy editor for final compilation.
• July 16, 2008
• Final editorial review and revisions, questions, concerns resolved with guest editors

and authors for JOURNAL MANUSCRIPTS.

• Authors get final draft of the ASSESSMENT REPORT for final fact check and minor

editorial changes.

• August 1, 2008
• Final submission of all JOURNAL MANUSCRIPTS to Elsevier special issue journal

editor by guest editors.

• Final submission of ASSESSMENT REPORT to copy editor for final digital master

prior to submission to the Task Force.

• September 2008 (TBD)
• Final JOURNAL publication (hard copy and online journal versions)
• Final ASSESSMENT REPORT presented to Task Force

SFERTF Science Coordination Group Built System Indicators Subgroup

Thank You

Any Questions?