Johor Bahru, Malaysia July 5, 2011 Asian Institute of Technology - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Johor Bahru, Malaysia July 5, 2011 Asian Institute of Technology Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology THAILAND Thammasat University, THAILAND Bundit Limmeechokchai Ram M. Shretha Pornphimol Winyuchakrit Artite Pattanapongchai

 To propose measures for avoiding climate change, and precursors to zero carbon society and renewable-energy economy.  To discuss the possibility of developing a low-carbon society in Thailand.  To create awareness among Thailand’s authorities, government, stakeholders, and communities for low-carbon Thailand.

Milli illions pers rson - 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 60 60 70 70 80 80 1976 Pers rson/HH 1979 1982 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 20 2005 1985 1988 Pop 1991 opulation 1994 1997 20 2000 2003 20 2010 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 20 2015 Household siz 2027 2030 Milli illions HH - 10 10 15 15 20 20 25 25 30 30 35 35 40 40 5 5 2020 20 2000 ize No. o. of 2005 of Hou 2010 20 2025 ouseholds 2015 20 2020 20 2030 2025 2030

2005 2030 0.49% Population 60,991,000 68,815,004 No. of HH 2.6 % 19,016,784 36,265,390 - NESDB GDP (mil Baht) 8,016,595 30,802,306 5.5- 5.0% - DOPA Gross output (mil Baht) 18,755,884 Primary industry (mil Baht) 3.9% 1,116,621 - NESDB SDB Secondary industry (mil Baht) 11,453,496 5.1% Tertiary industry (mil Baht) 6,185,767 6.4% 68,456,651 Floor space for commercial (mil m 2 ) 88 2,801,864 Passenger transport demand (mil p-km) 191,520 38,008,931 Freight transport demand (mil t-km) 188,524 27,645,856 - TTP TTP Remarks: Primary industry  Agriculture, Mining, and Construction - DCA 394 Secondary industry  Textiles, Food & beverage, Chemical, Metallic, - DLT 216,088 Non-metallic, and Others 589,859 Tertiary industry  Service sector

Thailand’s EE & RET: Abatement Cost Curves

Residential Commercial Industry Passenger transport Freight transport 164,863 162,543 Final Energy Demand (ktoe) 128,963 21% 21 21% 21 5% 5% 22 22% 3% 49% 49 59% 59 57,327 50% 50 9% 9% 9% 9% 16% 16 16% 16% 16% 16% 2005 2030 BAU 2030 CM 2030 RE Remarks: BAU is Business as Usual CM is Countermeasures RE is Renewable energy scenario

Residential Commercial Industry Passenger transport Freight transport 563,730 GHG Emissions (kt-CO 2 ) 443,043 19% 19% 5% 324,170 22% 22 4% 4% 49 49% 25% 25 185,983 45% 45 3% 3% 47 47% 18% 18 18% 18 15% 15 10 10% 10% 10 11 11% 2005 2030 BAU 2030 CM 2030 RE Remarks: BAU is Business as Usual CM is Countermeasures RE is Renewable energy scenario

GHG emissions Residential Commercial Industry Passenger transport Freight transport Power generation 563,730 GHG Emissions/Reductions (kt-CO 2 ) 91,615 kt-CO 2 59,553 kt-CO 2 6,411 kt-CO 2 23,118 kt-CO 2 7,127 kt-CO 2 15,159 kt-CO 2 47,597 kt-CO 2 79,984 kt-CO 2 18,734 kt-CO 2 10,950 kt-CO 2 185,983 2005 2030 BAU 2030 CM 2030 RE Remarks: BAU is Business as Usual CM is Countermeasure RE is Renewable energy scenario

 Efficiency improvement in the Power gen eneration sec ector  T&D loss will improve to be 5%.  Technology transfer: New power plant technology will be added such as IGCC and CCGT  Eff. Improve to be 48% and 56%.  Fuel switching: Increasing share of RE and NE in PDP 2010. Fue uel type type Sha Share in in 20 2030 30 BAU AU Sha Share in in 20 2030 30 CM Natural gas 71.4 39.0 Oil 6.6 - Coal 15.1 23.6 Hydro 4.4 20.5 Nuclear - 11.2 Renewable energy 2.5 5.7 Ref : Thailand’s Power Development Plan, PDP 2010.

 Energy efficiency improvement in Households (E (Elec lectric)  Efficiency improvement by 30%  Penetration rates up to 100% in 2030  Energy efficiency improvement in Hous usehold lds (N (Non- ele electric)  Efficiency improvement - by 30% in wood stove - by 5% in LPG stove  Penetration rates up to 100% in 2030 Ref: Ministry of Energy, Thailand.

24,859 CO 2 ) (kt-CO 13,909 (56%) EEI (Elec.) 44.5% 38% 1,620 (6%) ssions (kt Supply side 9,330 (38%) 56% GHG emiss 55,838 EEI (Non-elec.) 6% 30,979 20,889 2005 2030 BAU 2030 CM GHG emissions EEI (electrical app.) EEI (non electrical app.) EEI (power sector)

 Energy efficiency improvement in Build uildings  Efficiency improvement by 30%  Penetration rates up to 100% in 2030  Energy efficiency improvement in Buil ildi dings (B (Build ilding Code des)  Building insulation  Building envelope  Penetration rates up to 100% in 2030 Ref: Ministry of Energy, Thailand.

53,630 CO 2 ) EEI (Elec.) (kt-CO 31% 34,896 (65%) ssions (kt 52.9% Supply side 2,350 (4%) 65% Bldg. Insulation 16,384 (31%) GHG emiss 4% 101,391 47,761 22,686 2005 2030 BAU 2030 CM GHG emissions EEI (electrical app.) Building insulation

 Energy efficiency improvement in In Indus dustry (E (Elec lectric)  Efficiency improvement Sy System Motor Oth Others Lig Lightin ing EEI 10% 20% 30%  Penetration rates up to 100% in 2030  Energy efficiency improvement in In Indus dustry (N (Non-electric)  Efficiency improvement by 30%  Fuel switching in In Indus dustry  Reduce the penetration level in coal and oil by 50%  Replace the penetration level remaining in biomass and LPG.

122,492 EEI (Elec.) 10% CO2) 42,508 (35%) (kt-CO 44.4% 41,336 (35%) ssions (kt 26,268 (21%) Supply side EEI (Non- 35% elec.) 12,380 (10%) 21% GHG emiss 276,045 Fuel switching 35% 153,554 86,034 2005 2030 BAU 2030 CM GHG emissions EEI (electrical app.) EEI (non electrical app.) Fuel switching EEI (power sector)

 Fuel economy improvement (FEI) in Tra ransport sec ector  Efficiency improvement by 30% in  Penetration rates up to 100% in 2030  Travel demand management (TDM) in Transport sec ector  Efficiency improvement by 7.38%  Using (eco-driving, bus priority, and non-motorized transport) Ref: Pongthanaisawan, J. 2007. Road transport energy demand analysis and energy saving potentials in Thailand. Asian Journal of Energy and Environment Kuwattanachai, N. 2009. Hybrid and Electric cars. TRF Newsletter.

 Fuel switching in Tra ransport sec ector  CNG engines will increase by 20% in 2030  Hybrid engines can save energy consumption by 30%  Modal shift in Transport sect ector SV SV LV LV Bus us Mot otor Bike ike Walk lk Train Plane Shi Ship bik ike Passenger 2005 24.3 6.7 42.3 14.6 0. 0.8 10 10.7 .7 0. 0.2 0.4 - 2030 15.0 5.0 20.0 10.0 12 12.8 .8 25.0 25 .0 12 12.0 .0 0.2 - Freight 2005 2.2 80.8 2. 2.3 0.02 14.8 2030 2.2 58.2 - - - - 24 24.9 .9 0.02 14.8 Ref: Pongthanaisawan, J. 2007. Road transport energy demand analysis and energy saving potentials in Thailand. Asian Journal of Energy and Environment Kuwattanachai, N. 2009. Hybrid and Electric cars. TRF Newsletter.

15,452 Supply side 293 (2%) 2% CO 2 ) (kt-CO 2,921 (19%) 59.7% Fuel ssions (kt FEI Switching 8,087 (52%) 27% 19% GHG emiss 4,151 (27%) 25,875 Modal 22,933 shift 52% 10,423 2005 2030 BAU 2030 CM GHG emissions FEI Modal shift Fuel switching EEI (power sector)

23,127 Supply side 9 (0.04%) 0.04% CO 2 ) 7,062 (31%) (kt-CO 9,469 (41%) 22.1% Fuel switching FEI ssions (kt 6,588 (28%) 31% 28% GHG emiss Modal shift 104,581 41% 81,454 33,441 2005 2030 BAU 2030 CM GHG emissions FEI Modal shift Fuel switching EEI (power sector)

2% 3% 14% 3% 10,950 4% 18,734 16% 79,984 GHG GHG emissions Emission Residential 15,159 324,170 Commercial 23,118 Industry Passenger transport 91,615 Freight transport Power generation Unit: kt-CO 2

GHG Reduction (kt- Action (%) CO 2 ) 1. Energy efficiency improvement (EEI) in households 10,950 4.6% - EEI in electric devices 9,330 3.9% - EEI in non-electric devices 1,620 0.7% 2. Energy efficiency improvement in buildings 16,384 6.8% 3. Building codes 2,350 1.0% 4. Energy efficiency improvement in industries 38,648 16.1% - EEI in electric devices 12,380 5.1% - EEI in non-electric devices 26,268 11.0% 5. Fuel switching in industry 41,336 17.3% 6. Fuel economy improvement in transportation 10,739 4.5% - Passenger transport 4,151 1.7% - Freight transport 6,588 2.8% 7. Fuel switching in transportation 9,983 4.2% - Passenger transport 2,921 1.2% - Freight transport 7,062 3.0% 8. Modal shift in transportation 17,556 7.3% - Passenger transport 8,087 3.3% - Freight transport 9,469 4.0% 9. Efficiency improvement and fuel switching in the 91,614 38.2% power sector Total GHG mitigation in 2030 239,560 100.0% 563,730 kt-CO 2 Total GHG emissions in the 2030 BAU scenario Total GHG emissions in the 2030 CM scenario 324,170 kt-CO 2

45,000 Biomass Potential Data by MOEN Forecasted data by 40,000 SIIT-TU 35,000 Biomass Potential by MOA ExSS estimated Primary Energy Supply (ktoe) 30,000 LCS ExSS 25,000 Primary Energy Supply Present status 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 YEAR

Target Installed Capacity (MW) Sources 2008-2011 2012-2016 2017-2022 55 95 500 Solar Wind 115 375 800 78 130 160 Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) 2,600 3,220 3,700 Biomass 165 281 324 Hydro 60 90 120 Biogas Financial Support (MBaht) 3,273 4,191 5,504