John Milton WSDOT Experience Risk and Performance Management - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Program Risk John Milton

WSDOT Experience

Risk and Performance Management

Improving agency performance

Risk and Asset Management Peer Exchange

August 25, 2015 Minneapolis, Minnesota

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John Milton, Ph.D. PE Secretary of Transportation

Lynn Peterson

Director - Quality Assurance and Transportation System Safety Washington State Department of Transportation

• 1. HISTORIC PERSPECTIVE

What got us here: using safety and preservation as examples

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Highway Construction Program

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PRESERVATION (P)

Paving Safety Restoration Preservation Catastrophi c Reduction Rest Areas Weigh Stations Unstable Slopes Major Drainage & Electrical Urban Rural Collision Preventio n All Weather Stormwater Fish Barriers

IMPROVEMENT (I)

Urban Bicycle Core HOV Noise Reduction Air Quality Chronic Env Deficiency Wildlife Connectivity Mgmt of Environmental Mitigation Sites Collision Reduction 1995 2007 Rest Areas (In Safety) Scenic Byways Freight System Restricted Bridges Bicycle Touring Other Facilities (P3) Roadway (P1) Structures (P2) Program Support (P4) Economic Initiatives (I3) Mobility (I1) Safety (I2) Program Support (I5) Environmental Retrofit (I4)

Strategy no longer active

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Funding crisis & meeting pavement preservation goals

Risk: declining funding: § Maintaining over 20,000 lane miles while funding dropped by $600 million in 10 years (27% reduction) Mitigation strategies: Create efficiencies § Target lowest life-cycle cost – WSDOT achieves pavement condition goals amidst funding crisis

*Note: Projections as of December 2011.

Telling elling the he stor

• ry

Pavement ement: :

Tar arget get lo lowes est lif life- e- cycle le cos cost

0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

2006 3Q 2007 2Q 2008 2Q 2005 2Q 2006 1Q 2007 4Q

2008 ¡2Q 2005 ¡2Q

Recent Inflation Trend

Construction Cost Index

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Two gas tax increases at 5¢ and 9¢ per gallon and project budgets set before increases to construction costs

Gas Gas tax ax pur purchas hasing ing po power er dec declines lines

• ver

er time ime

Gas Gas tax ax not not inde indexed ed to

• inf

infla lation ion Promis

• mise

e to

• deliv

deliver er on

• n time

ime and and on

• n budget

budget

• Includes maintenance, preservation, safety improvements, and other department operations.

** Less Debt Service.

…and compelling communication of risk is more important than ever

Funding crisis

§ Revenue significantly under projections § Inflation increasing cost of maintenance and construction § Challenge in getting another tax increase

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Source: WSDOT

Tracking cost versus pavement performance

% of all pavements Pavement Preservation Expenditures (June 2011 Real Dollars) in Millions

State highway pavement trends (1980 – 2010)

All pavement types (1981 – 2010) Good/fair Poor $ Pavement Preservation

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Mit itiga igating ing Ris isks ks

Pavement ement: :

Inno nnovations ions to

• lo

lower er cos costs, , pr pres eser erve e lif life e

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WSDOT’s pavement technology innovations help offset declining investments

WSDOT uses pavement technology to make the state’s roads last longer and cost less. Efficiencies include: § Dowel bar retrofits on concrete pavements § Selective panel replacement and diamond grinding on concrete pavements § Converting higher cost asphalt pavements to lower cost chip seal pavements ($151 million saved as of December 2011)

(Accumulated cost / Annual cost)

• f not being at LLCC

Level of Service versus Life Cycle Cost

Life Cycle Cost ($) Level of Service

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Net Benefit (EUAC)

• 3000
• 2000
• 1000

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 +0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 Years Added by Preservation Treatment Net Benefit EUAC ($/yr)

Crack Sealing Sealing & Patching Chip Seal

Reconstruction ($ $$$$$) Rehabilitation ($$$) Maintenance ($)

Hold or Push Reduce Emergent Preventive Rehabilitation Need

Years Condition Indexes

Asphalt Pavement Preservation Decisions

Do Nothing 100

Maintenance.

(what, when, where, how, why)

Rehabilitation

(what, when, where, how, why)

Reconstruction

(what, when, where, how, why)

Cost

(minimize LCC)

Performance

(achieve minimum requirement)

Decisions and Outcomes

Uses for Economic Performance Methodologies

• Evaluation of Pavement Management

§ How efficiently are pavements performing? § Are the most cost-effective decisions being implemented?

• Evaluation of Pavement Design

§ Is pavement structure over designed or under designed?

• Evaluation of Freight Corridors

§ Are freight corridors designed with the most efficient pavements?

Then (1990) Now (2010) Worst first Lowest life cycle cost Allocation funding Need based funding WSPMS as sideline WSPMS as key decision making tool Hveem mix design protocol Superpave mix design Volumetrics in the lab Volumetrics in the field Concrete Total Replacement Dowel bar retrofit Dowel bar retrofit Triage protocol Thick overlays (>2"+) P-1 protocol (2" overlays for all HMA) No westside BST All west side regions doing BST BST only if ADT <2000 ADT BST on all routes under 5,000 ADT and consideration for routes between 5,000-10,000 No RAP Consuming all the RAP produced in the state No RAS Test project with RAS No clear pavement selection Pavement Type Selection Protocol No dowel bar selection Dowel Bar Selection Protocol

1990-2010: Changes in Pavement Asset Management