Jim Brown, WDFW Presentation Adapted from Tom Kahlers (Douglas PUD) - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2019 Jim Brown, WDFW Presentation Adapted from Tom Kahler’s (Douglas PUD) Presentation to the Icicle Steering Committee on April 11, 2019

Challenge 1:

Large Variation in Annual Inflow

Challenge 2:

Water managers required to balance multiple competing

• bjectives & trade-offs

Over space and time Across multiple entities Using incomplete or uncertain information

Okanagan Lake Okanagan River at Penticton Okanagan River at OK Falls Okanagan River at Oliver Osoyoos Lake

Okanagan Lake Skaha Lake Vaseaux Lake Osoyoos Lake

· Flood control (< 342.75m) · Shore spawning kokanee incubation (lake draw-down from Oct-15 to Apr less than 0.2 m) · Domestic & agricultural water intakes · Recreational navigation · Flood control (< 60 m

3.sec

• 1)

· River recreation (> 10 m

3.sec

• 1,

Jul-Aug) · Flood control (< 78 m

3.sec

• 1)

· Flood control (< 96 m

3.sec

• 1)

· Sockeye incubation (flows less than 30 m

3.sec

• 1 Nov - Apr/May)

· Domestic & agricultural water intakes (> 6 m

3.sec

• 1)

· Recreational navigation · Sockeye juveniles, temperature-

• xygen squeeze mitigation

(cumulative Jul 1 - Sep 30 inflows ~ 145 to 167 million m

3+)

Okanagan Lake Dam

Challenge 3:

Low Level of Trust Between Parties

Limited engagement between water managers, fisheries agencies, and First Nations on operational decisions Perceptions by fisheries agencies and First Nations:

• Lack of transparency and inclusion
• Water managers giving greater weight to human-

system concerns at the expense of ecosystem concerns

Compliance with OBIA Fishery Flows was low prior to 1998.

RIVER FLOW (CMS)

PREFERRED RANGE

From 1982-1997 river discharge exceeded OBIA fishery flows in: (a) 13 of 16 yrs for adult migration (b) 9 of 16 yrs for spawning and (c) 7 of 16 yrs for egg incubation & fry migration

RIVER FLOW (CMS) RIVER FLOW (CMS)

OBA preferred flow range Observed flow range

(a) migration (b) spawning (c) incubation

Figure by ESSA Technologies Ltd., 2014

Fish-Water Management Tool Decision Makers (Multidisciplinary Team)

Satellite

Snow Pack

Okanagan Lake Okanagan River Osoyoos Lake

Dam

OKANAGAN FISH & WATER MANAGEMENT TOOL

Adapted from presentation by Brian Symonds, Adaptive Management for Large-scale Water Infrastructure, New Orleans, LA, 26 July 2018

Flood risk Resident fish Recreation Anadromous salmon

Rule 1: Don’t fill Okanagan Lake above 342.56 meters (i.e. 10 cm rise above 342.56 incurs $5-$10 million in “property” losses!) Rule 2: Try to avoid drafting to lake levels below 341.50 meters. (i.e. problems with docks, water intakes, & vessel navigation become severe). Rule 3: Minimize draw-down of Okanagan L. between the time of kokanee spawning and 100% fry emergence (i.e. minimize dewatering kokanee eggs & fry, but don’t risk violation of “rules” 1, 6, 7, 8, & 9) Rule 4: Minimize the number of buildings flooded at Penticton Rule 5: Provide summer flows for recreation if possible Rule 6: Sockeye Migration – maintain flows (@ Oliver) between 8.5 & 12.7 cms during Aug 1 to Sept 15 to allow “easy” passage of VDS. Rule 7: Sockeye Spawning – maintain flows between 9.9-15.6 cms during Sept 16-Oct 31 to maximize “good” spawning habitat. Rule 8: Sockeye Incubation- flows at 5.0- 28.3 cms during Nov 1-Feb 15, i.e. egg incubation flows greater than or equal to 50 % of spawning flows & must not exceed 28.3 cms to avoid redd desiccation & scouring. Rule 9: Sockeye Fry emergence-migration flows during Feb 16-Apr 30 at 5.0-28.3 cms.

Procedure for In-season Use…

Optimal Policy (decision point) Multiple Objectives Scientific Uncertainty Value Differences Base-case Assumptions Performance Measures & Hazard Thresholds

Agree on…

Inflow Estimates

Individual analysis… Group analysis…

Best Dam-release Policy: Point-of-view “X”

Adapted from presentation by Brian Symonds, Adaptive Management for Large-scale Water Infrastructure, New Orleans, LA, 26 July 2018

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Oct-01 Oct-15 Oct-29 Nov-12 Nov-26 Dec-10 Dec-24 Jan-07 Jan-21 Feb-04 Feb-18 Mar-04 Mar-18 Apr-01 Apr-15 Apr-29 May-13 May-27 Jun-10 Jun-24 Jul-08 Jul-22 Aug-05 Aug-19 Sep-02 Sep-16 Sep-30

Oliver discharge (m

3.s

• 1)

AVG HIGH LOW

Sockeye

Spawning

Incubation Emergence Manage flood risk scour threshold desiccation threshold Manage drought risk

Event timing & natural variations determine whether fish and water managers satisfy OBA rules & competing objectives

Hyatt et al. 2011

Okanagan River at Oliver - Average Flood control Domestic intakes

• Ag. intakes

Sockeye Eggs Sockeye Alevins

• 5.0

5.0 15.0 25.0 35.0 45.0 55.0 65.0 75.0 85.0 95.0 105.0 115.0 125.0 135.0 145.0 155.0

Oct-07 Oct-21 Nov-04 Nov-18 Dec-02 Dec-16 Dec-30 Jan-13 Jan-27 Feb-10 Feb-24 Mar-09 Mar-23 Apr-06 Apr-20 May-04 May-18 Jun-01 Jun-15 Jun-29 Jul-13 Jul-27 Aug-10 Aug-24 Sep-07 Sep-21 OK River (m

3.sec

• 1)

Okanagan Basin Agreement target to minimize redd scour BC-Washington Co- Operative Plan minimum flow targets Sockeye biologist’s rule of thumb to avoid de-watering

Multi-objective indicators from screen-capture in FWMT software

Okanagan River at Oliver - Average Flood control Domestic intakes

• Ag. intakes

Sockeye Eggs Sockeye Alevins

• 5.0

5.0 15.0 25.0 35.0 45.0 55.0 65.0 75.0 85.0 95.0 105.0 115.0 125.0 135.0 145.0 155.0

Oct-07 Oct-21 Nov-04 Nov-18 Dec-02 Dec-16 Dec-30 Jan-13 Jan-27 Feb-10 Feb-24 Mar-10 Mar-24 Apr-07 Apr-21 May-05 May-19 Jun-02 Jun-16 Jun-30 Jul-14 Jul-28 Aug-11 Aug-25 Sep-08 Sep-22 OK River (m

3.sec

• 1)

Okanagan River at Oliver - Average Flood control Domestic intakes

• Ag. intakes

Sockeye Eggs Sockeye Alevins

• 5.0

5.0 15.0 25.0 35.0 45.0 55.0 65.0 75.0 85.0 95.0 105.0 115.0 125.0 135.0 145.0 155.0

Oct-07 Oct-21 Nov-04 Nov-18 Dec-02 Dec-16 Dec-30 Jan-13 Jan-27 Feb-10 Feb-24 Mar-10 Mar-24 Apr-07 Apr-21 May-05 May-19 Jun-02 Jun-16 Jun-30 Jul-14 Jul-28 Aug-11 Aug-25 Sep-08 Sep-22 OK River (m

3.sec

• 1)

(A) Actual and predicted flows at Oliver (sockeye spawning grounds) 9-Feb-06 (B) Final outcome at Oliver (sockeye spawning grounds) 30-Sep-06

OKANAGAN FWMT 2005-2006 WATER MANAGEMENT YEAR

Decision Point – Hydrograph Trending Toward Exceedance of Rules #8 & #9 Model Accurately Predicts Event

Okanagan Lake Kokanee Emergence Timing

Annual Sockeye Passage at Wells Dam, 1977 - 2018

Annual Sockeye Counts at Tumwater and Wells Dams 1977 - 2018

Questions?