IRPC Public Company Limited
Opportunity Day: 2Q17 & 1H17 Result
24 August 2017
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IRPC Public Company Limited Opportunity Day: 2Q17 & 1H17 Result 24 August 2017 Disclaimer This presentation material has been prepared solely for informational purposes only. IRPC is furnishing it solely for use by prospective investors /
IRPC Public Company Limited
Opportunity Day: 2Q17 & 1H17 Result
24 August 2017
Disclaimer
This presentation material has been prepared solely for informational purposes only. IRPC is furnishing it solely for use by prospective investors / analysts in the proposed event. IRPC makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. By accepting this material each recipient agrees that IRPC shall not have any liability for any representations (express or implied) contained in, or for any omissions from this presentation. The information contained herein does not purport to be all-inclusive or to contain all of the information that may be material to the recipient’s decision. Each recipient of the information and data contained herein should perform its own independent investigation and analysis of the transaction and the creditworthiness of IRPC . Reference in this Disclaimer to this shall include references to the Appendices (if any) hereto.
2
2Q17 & 1H17 Highlight Operation & Financial Performance Project Update
Agenda
Industry Outlook
3
93% 17% 23% 61% 16% 70% 29% 1%
Financial Highlight: 2Q17 & 1H17 Performance
Better MKT GIM from higher U-rate after TA though soften spread and stock loss from lower crude price
40,471 36,866 49,930 78,721 86,796
QoQ 35% YoY 23%
Overview of Business
Net Sales
(net excise tax)
Dubai (Avg.)
Unit: $/bbl
Net Income
Unit: MB Unit: MB YoY 67% QoQ 48%
EBITDA
Unit: MB
6,107 3,549 3,706 9,859 7,255
YoY 39% QoQ 4%
1Q17
Petroleum Petrochemical Utilities and Others
Net Sales
(net excise tax)
EBITDA Net income
4
YoY 10% YoY 26% YoY 47%
2Q17
49,930 MB 3,706 MB 1,228 MB
3,706 2,365 1,228 6,720 3,594 2Q16 1Q17 2Q17 1H16 1H17 Market GIM($/bbl) 13.39 15.69 13.58 13.54 14.33 Crude run KBD 182 116 194 184 155 43 53 50 37 51
+35% +4%
18% 76% 6% 27% 62% 11% 66% 32% 2%
36,866 MB 3,549 MB 2,365 MB
Planned TA Planned TA
879 2,202 1,024 1,228
832 456 198
3,461 2,000 992 283
829
173 191 2,202 1,178 52 152
5 Unit: MB
Net Profit 2Q17 Net Profit 1Q17 Volume Increase Margin Decrease Everest Project
Decrease Selling
OPEX Others Stock Loss & Hedging +LCM Depre. Operating Profit 2Q17
2,365
Net Income: 2Q17 vs 1Q17
Operating Profit
Net Stock Gain/(Loss) FX gain Impair. ReversalOperating Tax Non-
Tax
Operating Profit 151%
Net Income: 2Q17 vs 1Q17
Operating profit improved from volume increase & efficiency improvement but margin drop
Sales Qty. (Exclude PTTGC) 1Q17 = 11.06 Mbbl 2Q17 = 17.31 MbblHighlight Everest Project : 1H17 Performance
Procurement Area Commercial Area Operations Area Corporate Area - Non HR
petrochemical products
enhancement
2,560 1,921 177 281
841 395 99 81
7,003 2,354 Total
Y2017 (Target) 1H17 Actual
Unit: MB of EBIT
Integrated Supply Chain
Corporate Area - HR
1,348 716
123 816
6
Key Area
Improvement after Turnaround
efficiency and product purity
consumption reduction
convection section
(CIT): Improve crude preheat train from 248 ˚C to 274 ˚C
ADU 2 Internal column retrofit (165 KBD) ADU2 and Reformer Unit (RFM) heater efficiency improvement ADU2 Energy improvement by Pinch technology
Objective
1 2 3
& Reduce shutdown time
quench section Diesel Kerosene Treating Unit (DK) reactor internal retrofit 4 Reformer Unit (RFM) heater efficiency improvement
EXAMPLE
Capacity increase Yield Increase Fouling Prevention T/A extension Energy Saving 7
Benefit after turnaround ~1,000 MB per year with one time CAPEX of ~300 MB
Achievement & Awards
8
“3 Asian Excellence Awards 2017”
by Corporate Governance Asia
“Asia Responsible Entrepreneurship Awards 2017”
by Enterprise Asia “NACC Integrity Awards 2016” by the National Anti-Corruption Commission “SET Sustainability Awards 2016 (Outstanding)” by the Stock Exchange of Thailand “Popular Stock Awards 2016” by Stock News Daily and the Stock Exchange of Thailand “Best Investor Relations Awards (SET AWARDS 2016)” by the Stock Exchange of Thailand
“The Best Corporate in Asia 2016 : Asia’s Outstanding Company In Corporate Governance” by Corporate Governance Asia journal
“Bronze Class Sustainability Award 2017”
by RobecoSAM “The Prime Minister's Industry Award 2016” by the Ministry of Industry
2Q17 & 1H17 Highlight Operation & Financial Performance Project Update
Agenda
Industry Outlook
9
3.2 1.4 2.0 4.0 2.4 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.8 2.6 2.1 1.4 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.5 6.0 4.0 4.1 5.4 4.8 4.6 5.0 4.6 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 1H16 1H17
Lube Base Refinery
Market GRM
Sales Volume & Revenue
13.2 12.1 12.9 13.9 9.0 14.1 25.3 23.1
2.0 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.1 1.7 3.8 2.8
15.2 13.9 14.5 15.6 10.1 15.8 29.1 25.9
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 1H16 1H17
Lube Base Refinery17.0 16.6 16.2 17.3 10.4 17.6 33.6 28.0 Crude intake M.bbl
Unit : $/bbl
Sales Distribution
24,966 27,088 27,589 33,509 24,344 34,754 52,054 59,098 PetroleumLocal 62% Export 38%
1Q17
Top 5 Export Destination in 2Q17 : Singapore, Malaysia, Cambodia, Laos, Japan
2Q17 : Petroleum revenue
2Q17 Market GRM was $4.6/bbl:
Local 62% Export 38% YoY 14% QoQ 57% YoY 28% QoQ 43% Sales volume (M.bbl) Revenue (MB)
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 1H16 1H1710
YoY 11% YoY 14%
Petroleum Group : Sales & GRM
Increasing Sales volume after TA; Slightly decrease GRM derived from Refinery’s spread
20,981 23,354 24,221 29,792 21,405 30,314 44,335 51,719 Refinery 3,985 3,734 3,368 3,717 2,939 4,440 7,719 7,379 Lube Base2Q17
1H17 : Petroleum revenue
1H17 Market GRM
during 1Q17
Petrochemical Group : Sales & PTF
Higher sales volume after TA; Spread went down especially in Styrenics
1.8 2.4 1.5 2.4 4.0 2.9 2.1 3.3 4.9 5.9 5.7 3.8 5.7 5.1 5.4 5.3
6.7 8.3 7.2 6.2 9.7 8.0 7.5 8.6
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 1H16 1H17
Unit : $/bbl Olefins & Polyolefins Aromatics & Styrenics 182 152 163 180 114 160 335 274 196 212 226 224 169 237 407 406
378 364 389 404 283 397 742 680 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 1H16 1H17
Olefins & Polyolefins Aromatics & StyrenicsCrude intake (M.bbl)
Sales Volume and Revenue
17.0 16.6 16.2 17.3 10.4 17.6 33.6 28.0
Sales Distribution
12,471 12,573 13,292 13,780 11,951 14,472 25,043 26,423 Petro- chemicalLocal 56% Export 44%
2Q17
Top 5 Export Destination in 2Q17: Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia, UAE
Local 62% Export 38%
2Q17 : Petrochemical revenue
2Q17 Market PTF was $8.0/bbl
YoY 9% QoQ 40% YoY 15% QoQ 21%
Sales volume (KMT)
Revenue (MB)
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 1H16 1H1711
YoY 8% YoY 6%
Market PTF ($/bbl)
6,781 7,497 8,058 7,445 6,798 8,361 14,277 15,159 Olefins 5,690 5,076 5,234 6,335 5,153 6,111 10,766 11,2641Q17
1H17 : Petrochemical revenue
1H17 Market PTF was $8.6/bbl
15.69 13.58
4.56 0.89 0.21 0.32 1.03 6.0 4.0 4.1 5.4 4.8 4.6 5.0 4.6 6.7 8.3 7.2 6.2 9.7 8.0 7.5 8.6
1.0 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.113.7 13.4 12.5 12.6 15.7 13.6 13.5 14.3 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 1H16 1H17
13.7 13.4 12.5 12.6 15.7 13.6 13.5 14.3
(1.2) 3.8 0.1 2.4 3.4 (1.2) 1.3 0.6(1.5) (1.4) (1.2) (1.9) (0.8) (0.8) (1.5) (0.8)
11.0 15.8 11.4 13.1 18.3 11.6 13.4 14.1 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 1H16 1H17
Gross Integrated Margin (GIM)
Though market spread decrease $4.6/bbl, market GIM decrease only $2.1/bbl
Market GIM
Unit: $/bbl
Accounting GIM
Unit: $/bbl
MKT GIM 1Q17 MKT Spread
Fuel Loss & Internal UsePremium
UHV Project Everest Project MKT GIM 2Q17
MKT GIM: 2.11 $/bbl
QoQ: 43% YoY: 5%
3,625 2,327 2,372 3,341 1,748 2,760 5,952 4,508
4,103 4,857 4,042 3,818 3,561 4,864 8,961 8,425 595 685 665 603 453 616 1,279 1,0698,323 7,869 7,079 7,762 5,762 8,240 16,192 14,002
GRM PTF Power & Utility
Unit: MB
8,323 7,869 7,079 7,762 5,762 8,240 16,192 14,002
(712) 2,242 44 1,471 1,275 (712) 1,530 563 (920) (821) (686) (1,194) (300) (466) (1,741) (766)
6,691 9,290 6,437 8,039 6,737 7,062 15,981 13,799
Market GIM Stk G/(L) & LCM Hedging
QoQ: 5% YoY: 1%
12
YoY: 14% YoY: 14%
$/bbl
3.2 1.4 2.0 4.0 2.4 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.8 2.6 2.1 1.5 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.5
6.0 4.0 4.1 5.4 4.8 4.6 5.0 4.6 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 1H16 1H17
Refinery Lube Base 4.9 5.9 5.7 3.8 5.7 5.1 5.4 5.3 1.8 2.4 1.5 2.4 4.0 2.9 2.1 3.3
6.7 8.3 7.2 6.2 9.7 8.0 7.5 8.6
Olefins Aromatics&Styrenics
Market GIM by business
Unit: $/bbl
Petrochemical Petroleum
Unit: MB
Noted : Normalized GIM 1Q17 = 14.7 $/bbl56,905 54,204 58,617 783 14,851 10,476
57,688 69,055 69,094
1,346 1,909 2,181
20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000
2Q16 1Q17 2Q17 L/T Debt S/T Debt Cash
0.72 0.81 0.84
2Q16 1Q17 2Q17
Debt Portfolio
Baht loans were drawn down to repay USD bond & Baht loan
ST Loan 15% LT Loan (USD) 7% LT Loan (THB) 52% Bond (THB) 26%
Debt Structure Debt Profile
Float 74 THB 74 Fixed 26 USD 26 Currency (%) Interest Rate (%)
Net Debt = 66,912 MB
Financial Ratios
0.80 0.66 0.89
2Q16 1Q17 2Q17
< 1.0x
Net D/E CA/CL
Unit : MB Net Debt
Maturity of Long-term Debt
Unit : MB MB ST Loan THB 10,476 LT Loan USD 135 4,598 LT Loan THB 36,134 Bond USD
THB 17,886 Total 135 69,094
Debt
Currency
56,342 66,912 67,146 13
1,168 2,535 3,732 6,204 22,494 340 3,239 679 340 2,640 4,999 3,361 6,8864,148 10,773 7,773 6,544 29,380 3Q17-4Q17 2018 2019 2020 >2020 THB Bond USD Loan THB Loan
2Q17 & 1H17 Highlight Operation & Financial Performance Project Update1
Agenda
Industry Outlook
14
Designed Yield
0.8%UHV project : Major CAPEX
IRPC’s Production Yield
15
Upstream project for Hygiene & Value-added Products Objective : Upgrade low value to high valued-added products Investment : $ 1.1 bn COD : Jul. 2016 Benefit : GIM 1.5-2.0 $/ bbl
Assumption : Spread propylene to FO ~ 500-600$/bbl RDCC unit
HYVAHL unit
Performance Guarantee Test
Plant Acceptance (PAC) Jan 2017
43% 84% 95%
2016A 2017F 2018F
Upgrade to High Valued-Added products
UHV to raise flexibility and improve product yield and earnings
131 123 163 367 220 326 74
HS-ATB LPG Ethylene
HYVAHL Propylene
Naphtha FO/FG
Middle Distillates
RDCC
C4 Raffinate III
Internal use & LossUnit : KTA 16% 5%
23%
9% 9% 26% 12%
Flow Diagram
LS-ATB
UHV
Designed Yield
Value added on UHV project
16
Gasoline Maximization Project UHV Catalyst Cooler in RDCC plant
Objectives
CAPEX : 1,390 MB IRR : ~ 35% COD : by end 2018 & 1H19 Benefit : GIM 0.3$/bbl Objectives
CAPEX : 1,100 MB IRR : ~ 80% COD : by end 2017 Benefit : GIM 0.4$/bbl
Demin
To improve margin with small CAPEX
17
GIM 0.8-1.0 $/bbl
Random PP
Super Clear PP
Block-CO PP
HOMO PP
PP Specialty
PP Compound
pumper, instrument panel, etc
PPE 160 KTA
PPC140 KTA
Total PP 775 KTA in 2017
PP Existing 475 KTA
Apr 20, 2015 BOD approved May 2015 awarded EPC Contractor
signed contract with Sinopec
Aug.2017
PP Expansion and PP Compound Project
PPE&PPC Benefit Enhancement
Propylene from UHV is major feedstock, Increase PP capacity to 775,000 ton per year
Compounding House PP inline compound
Lower cost : PPC production by Inline process technology
Note: Cost Saving • No Packing & Logistic
PPE MC: End Jun.17 COD Aug. 2017
Sept.2017
PPC MC: Mid Jul.17 COD Sept. 2017
PP Compound 11%
Random PP 10%
Homo PP 58%
Block-CO PP 21%
PP Marketing Strategy : Sales Plan
2017
Volume: 600 Ktons
2022
Volume: 760 Ktons
Random PP 4% Homo PP 75% Block-CO PP 21%
2Q17 & 1H17 Highlight Operation & Financial Performance Project Update
Agenda
Industry Outlook
18
19
Global Oil Price Outlook
Global Oil Supply & Demand
30 40 50 60 70 80
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Barclays BNP Citigroup Credit Suisse Deutsche Bank JBC
$52-60 $50-65 $52-65 Source: Reuters , July 2017
$/bbl Brent
Crude Oil Price Forecast
Fundamentals point to tightening balances, gradual oil price recovery, with Brent prices to average $52-60/bbl in 2017
Surplus stock reduction moderates substantially in 4Q17 and accelerates in 1H2018 before starting to rebuild in 2H2018
Global Commercial Stock Surplus
Short-Term Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Outlook
Positive outlook of Refined Products
Driving Determinants Key Products Price (2Q17) Spread (2Q17) 3Q17 4Q17 Refinery ($/bbl) ($/bbl) Outlook Outlook Dubai 49.8 ULG 95 64.0 14.2 GAS OIL 0.05%S 61.2 11.4 FO 48.0 (1.8) Lube Base Oil ($/T) ($/T) Outlook Outlook 500 SN 860 556 150 BS 962 658
20
demand from rainy season
arbitrage from deep sea close will support stable price
high leading by Saudi Arabia and Russia amid expectation
rapidly-rising production in Libya/Nigeria and US shale oil production still pressure price
fallback towards end 3Q17 as higher supply after refineries return from maintenance and few demand
pressure due to surplus from China could raise export quota in 3rd round as more new capacity coming in 2H17
especially from FSU and winter demand will be support price
Short-Term Petrochemical Products Outlook
Positive outlook of Petrochemical Products
Key Products Price (2Q17) Spread (2Q17) 3Q17 4Q17 Olefins ($/T) ($/T) Outlook Outlook Ethylene 990 544 Propylene 742 296 HDPE 1,276 830 PP 1,107 661 Styrenics ($/T) ($/T) Outlook Outlook PS 1,324 878 ABS 1,672 1,226
Driving Determinants
schedule TA in NEA& SEA
medium-to-long term outlook with additional capacity expected to be commissioned by North American PE producers using cost- advantaged feedstock from shale gas
21
quarter manufacturing season in China has kicked off
will remain the key demand drivers for PS
completed
4Q17 with some schedule turnaround in Asia and higher demand at year end
Capacity Before After Propylene (UHV) 412 KTA 732 KTA
22
2010 2014
Margin Improvement
Excellence
Benefit +135 MUSD
INDIVIDUAL OWNERSHIP SYNERGY PERFORMANCE EXCELLENCE INNOVATION RESPONSIBILITY FOR SOCIETY INTEGRITY & ETHICS TRUST & RESPECT
Other Projects Completion
Improvement
Incremental Margin and Organization Health
Orientation
Fully Integrated PP
E4E Everest forever
IRPC Strategic Roadmap to 2020
Capture benefits and growth after investment to reach 1st Quartile ROIC
BIG
Revenue Growth of 5% EBITDA Growth of 10% 1st Quartile ROIC in Petroleum and Petrochemical Industry
STRONG LONG
Member of DJSI Emerging Markets Universe
Capacity
Before After
PP (PPE&PPC) 475 KTA 775 KTA
2017
2016
Capacity Before After CHP I
108 MW 200 T/hr 328 MW 620 T/hr PRP (Propylene) 312 KTA 412 KTA
22
Beyond Everest
Power of Growth Power of People Power of Digital
Investor Relations Contact: ir@irpc.co.th
Presentation is available at
www.irpc.co.th
Click “Presentations”
This presentation material has been prepared solely for informational purposes only. IRPC is furnishing it solely for use by prospective investors / analysts in the proposed event. IRPC makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. By accepting this material each recipient agrees that IRPC shall not have any liability for any representations (express or implied) contained in, or for any omissions from this presentation. The information contained herein does not purport to be all-inclusive or to contain all of the Information that may be material to the recipient’s decision. Each recipient of the information and data contained herein should perform its own independent investigation and analysis of the transaction and the creditworthiness of IRPC . Reference in this Disclaimer to this shall include references to the Appendices (if any) hereto.
Please complete our 2Q2017 satisfaction survey via QR CODE
Statement of Financial Position & Ratio
Higher Net D/E from CAPEX and dividend paid
121,361 126,812 11,169 10,851 37,806 36,576 2,042 2,181 81,005 80,046 2,203 2,255 56,445 58,617 32,725 35,502
Unit: MB
PP&E Other Non-C/A Cash 172,378 Other Current Liabilities L/T Liabilities (incl. due within 1 yr) Shareholders’ Equity
Jun 30, 2017
176,420
Dec 31, 2016 Assets : AR 1,373 MB
PP&E 5,451 MB
Depreciation Liabilities & Equity IBD 6,507 MB
Long-Terms loan including current portion
(caused by long term loan of 18,000 MB drawdown to repay loans & bonds 15,228 MB and unrealized F/X gain of 600 MB) Equity 959 MB
Other C/A
2Q16 1Q17 2Q17 2Q16 1Q17 2Q17 EBITDA Margin (%) 13.55 8.89 6.79 Current Ratio (time) 0.80 0.66 0.89 Net Profit Margin (%) 8.22 5.92 2.25 Quick Ratio (time) 0.21 0.14 0.31 Earnings per share (Baht/share) 0.18 0.12 0.06 Return on Equity
(%)
17.48 11.52 8.94 Net Debt to Equity (time) 0.72 0.81 0.84 RATIOS Financial Policy Ratio Profitability Ratios Liquidity Ratios
Other Non-Current Liabilities 25
27
Support
CAPEX Plan in 2017 – 2021 Market Outlook Specialty Petrochemical Products Ratio Petrochemical Yield Petroleum & Petrochemical Spread Petroleum & Petrochemical Production Financial Performance Lower of Tax Gain/(Loss) from Investment Hedging 1H17 Cash flow Key Milestone of UHV Power of Growth/Digital/People IRPC-CP Power
2,027 3,235 2,118 2,481 2,247 2,314 2,313 1,716 3,793 4,146
20826 86 133 549 1,483
8,788 11,539 2,118 2,481 2,247 2,314 2016A 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Other Projects 📞 Delta / Delta Plus 💼 Everest Project 🗼 PPE & PPC Project 🏭 UHV Project 🏮 Maintenance 🔨
Unit: MB
Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) Plan in 2017 - 2021
To Capture growth benefit after huge CAPEX
28
12,395 , 60% 1,716 , 8% 4,146 , 20% 826 , 4% 133 , 1% 1,483 , 7%
🔨 🏮 🏭 🗼 💼 📞
Total 20,700
IRPC 5 year CAPEX Plan Total : 20,700 MB
UHV PPE & PPC Maintenance
Volatile Crude Oil Price
Crude Oil Market & Outlook
Target Production reached target Production did not reach targetOPEC: More compliance & beyond lower target in production cut
Reach 95% compliance in June. 2017
OPEC & non OPEC : Target & Compliance in 2Q17
29
1.1 MBD in June : Leaded by Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Kuwait – Lacked by Iraq, UAE, Algeria, Russia, Kazakhstan
ramped up production this year.
U.S. Supply & Stock
and 2018 has continued to rise.
biggest contributors are expected to come from the Permian basin
flatten through the end of 2017 (660 rigs by Dec 2017 from 653 currently) before starting to rise and reach 740 rigs by year end 2018 as oil prices move higher.
crude and export to international markets.
million barrels.
Source: PIRA, July 2017
U.S. Crude Oil Stock
Source: EIA 2017
U.S. Gasoline Stock
Unit: Million barrel Unit: Million barrel Source: EIA 2017
U.S. Shale Oil Keeps Growing :
30
31
Sources: Nexant 2017, ICIS 2017
Company C2 capacity (kt/year) Start-Up OxyChem/ Mexichem 544 1Q17 (done) Dow Chemical 1,500 Mid-2017 ExxonMobil Chemical 1,500 End 2017 Chevron Phillips Chemical 1,500 4Q17, PE mid-2017 Formosa Plastics 1,250 2H18 Sasol 1,500 2H18, LDPE 2019, Other 2H19 Westlake (Axiall)/Lotte) 1,000 4Q18 Shintech 500 2018 Shell 1,500 Early 2020s Total/Borealis/NOVA 1,000 End 2020 Shell 1,500 Early 2020s Sabic/ExxonMobil 1,800New US crackers complete, under construction, FID made
Middle East production China net trade changes
Company PE Capacity (kt/year) Start-Up Zhongtian Hechuang Energy, Inner Mongolia CTO LDPE: 250,120 2017 Zhong'an Lianhe Coal Chemical, Anhui CTO HDPE/LLDPE: 350 2017 Qinghai Mining, Qinghai CTO HDPE/LLDPE: 300 2017 CNOOC Huizhou, Guangdong Naphtha HDPE, LLDPE: 400,300 Q4 2017 Qinghai Damei Coal Industry, Qinghai CTO HDPE/LLDPE: 300 2017 Shenhua Coal to Liquid, Ningxia CTO HDPE/LLDPE: 430 2017 Jiangsu Sailboat MTO LDPE/EVA: 300 2017 Yan'an Energy and Petrochemical, Shaanxi CTO HDPE/LLDPE: 450 2018 Sinopec Guizhou, Guizhou CTO LLDPE: 300 2018 China Power Investment Corp, Inner Mongolia CTO HDPE/LLDPE: 300 2018 Shanxi Coking, Shanxi CTO HDPE/LLDPE: 300 2018 Shanxi Yanchang Petroleum, Shaanxi CTO HDPE/LLDPE: 300 2019 Shenhua (Baotou) phase II, Inner Mongolia CTO HDPE/LLDPE: 300 2020 Huahong Hongjin Coal Chemical, Gansu CTO HDPE/LLDPE: 200 2020China CTO/MTO-based PE capacity far less than expected
Petrochemical Outlook
Polyethylene
and MEG
forecast at 1 MTA, China to sustain a net import position for many products
32
China : Large investment virtually balanced
Base case: China’s PP capacity versus consumption Sources: IHS 2017, ICIS 2017
India : The biggest importer / SEA : Strong growing demand China represents to the global landscape for new capacity
1 2 3 4 5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Million Metric Tons China Rest Of the World Demand Addition
PP demand growth is robust vs other plastics
1 2 3 4 5 6 PP PE PS PET PVC Average Annual Growth, % AAGR 11-16 AAGR 16-21
Petrochemical Outlook
Polypropylene: Strong demand vs potentially supply to delay
ABS Market Outlook
Improved Operating Rate ABS demand catch up to additional capacity
Moderate demand growth with limited additional capacity addition
approximately 80% range as the market digests the recent ABS capacity investments
Sources: IHS 2017 33 Sources: IHS 2017
Fuel Oil Market Outlook
IMO 2020: The great shift to distillates
34
IMO - The International Maritime Organization
16% 22% 31% 34% 35% 39% 43% 45% 55% 57% 60%
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
IRPC 75% PPC Rokita 25%
IRPC A&L
IRPC 60% Nippon A&L 37%
Sumithai 3%
Joint Venture Polyol
Sale Volume (MT)
ABS Powder Wood Composite
PE-Pipe
AMSAN Anti- Dripping
Green ABS EPS
Wire & Cable Conductive
UHMW-PE
PP Alloy & PP Composite
Natural Color Compound
SuperabsorbentPPE PPC
160 KTA 140 KTA To start up by 3Q,2017
Nano
Specialty Petrochemical Products
Increase High Value Added and Specialty Products to capture higher margin
35
PPE&PPC
Specialty Product
UHV Everest
Petrochemical Yield(for Sales)
Olefins 192 11% Ethylene 192 11% Propylene Butadiene Aromatics 253 15% Benzene Toluene 132 8% MX 121 7% Polyolefins 940 55% HDPE/PE 140 8% PP 775 45% Polyol 25 1% Polystyrenics 334 19% ABS 179 10% PS 125 7% EPS 30 2% Total 1,719 100% Monomer 445 26% Polymer 1,274 74% 1,719 100% Capacity for sales (After PPE/PPC)
Petroleum Performance : Refinery
Better Fuel oil spread but other spread decreased after maintenance shutdown
QoQ 4%
+ Robust demand from India
QoQ 3%
China Sea
+ Strong demand from India & Indonesia
QoQ 42%
+ Low supply from Europe, Persian
Gulf and Russia’s export
+ Higher demand in ME for power
generation during summer
Naphtha, as lower LPG price
6.1 0.7 (1.9) 0.2 1.1 (1.3)
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
18.8 14.5 11.6 14.6 14.8 14.2
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
9.6 10.5 11.0 12.0 11.8 11.4
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
(5.2) (8.7) (4.3) (1.7) (3.1) (1.8)
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
Gas oil - Dubai ULG 95 - Dubai HSFO - Dubai Naphtha - Dubai
$/BBL $/BBL $/BBL $/BBL
Refinery Spread
37
QoQ 218%
Petroleum Performance: Lube Base Oil
Greater Lube base oil spread but Asphalt demand shrank
500 SN : QoQ 23% 150 BS : QOQ 4%
+ Short supply of Lube
Base plants from plant maintenance shutdown in Japan, Korea and Singapore
QoQ 192%
delayed budget for road construction regarding the coming rainy season
(7.0) (47.9) (61.1) (80.4) (13.0) (38.0)
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 $/TON
844 780 725 602 635 658
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 $/TON
442 418 443 367 451 556
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 $/TON
500SN – FO 180 3.5%S Spread 150 BS – FO 180 3.5%S Spread Asphalt – FO 180 3.5%S Spread
Lube Base Oil Spread
38
QoQ - Flat
+ Maintenance shutdown in Vietnam
Petrochemical Performance: Olefins
Spread stayed strong as tight supply from regional TA
QoQ 9%
+ Tight supply from regional T/A + Low raw material prices following
crude oil price
668 689 668 529 591 544 239 188 177 232 171 286
907 876 845 761 762 830
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Ethylene-NP HDPE-Ethylene
HDPE-Ethylene –Naphtha Spread Olefins Styrenics Aromatics
304 308 339 272 435 296 295 376 360 366 228 365
600 684 699 638 663 661
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Propylene-NP PP-Propylene
PP-Propylene –Naphtha Spread
$/TON $/TON
39
QoQ 15%
Crude price
Petrochemical Performance: Aromatics
Lower Toluene spread but higher MX spread
QoQ 5%
+ Tight supply from Korean
producers’ maintenance shutdown
224 184 175 192 200 170
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
254 263 267 215 192 202
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
MX – Naphtha Spread Toluene – Naphtha Spread Olefins Styrenics Aromatics
$/TON $/TON
40
QoQ 15%
maintenance shutdown
low raw material prices
QoQ 11%
maintenance shutdown
following raw material prices
Petrochemical Performance : Styrenics
Spread decreased by the supply glut after their maintenance shutdown
809 806 810 842 1,029 878
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
854 897 984 1,092 1,382 1,226
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
PS –Naphtha Spread ABS –Naphtha Spread Olefins Styrenics Aromatics
$/TON $/TON
41
Others Domestic Far East Middle East
Petroleum Production
High Record of Utilization Rate after 1Q17 Turnaround
1.0 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.8 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.9 1.7 1.4
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 1H16 1H17
Lube Asphalt
Unit : Mbbl
Unit : Mbbl
LPG & Others Naphtha Gasoline Diesel Fuel oil 1.8 1.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 3.3 1.3 7.6 7.6 7.1 7.6 4.7 7.8 15.2 12.5
1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.8 1.7 3.1 2.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.41Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 1H16 1H17 Unit : KMT 4.12 3.11 2.58 2.07 2.28 1.39 3.62 1.32
187 182 176 188 116 194 184 155
Crude Run (KBD) 23.2 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.0 1.7
Remark: Excluding internal use quantity Remark: Excluding internal use quantity
42
7 12 6 10 1615
27 11 21 3253 68 29 65 95 23 29 2 18 21
7 8 2 7 8 13 11 5 10 15118 156 55 132 188
3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 1H17
LPG L-Sulfur Propylene HCN Diesel Fuel Oil 51% 51% 69% 74% 62% 68% 51% 66% 49% 49% 31% 26% 38% 32% 49% 34%1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 1H16 1H17
Sweet Crude Sour CrudePremium over Dubai ($/bbl)
87% 85% 82% 87% 53% 90% 86% 72%
% Utilization
3.5 2.7 65% 86% 38% 82% 11.8 11.4 10.3 11.0 11.5 6.8 18.3 60%
% Utilization
100% 95% 87% 93% 48% 83% 97% 65%
% Utilization
Crude Intake RDCC Production Refinery Production Lube Base oil & Asphalt
101 92 97 96 36 95 193 131 2
2 3 77 65 47 78 40 83 142 122
180 157 144 179 76 181 337 257
Petrochemical Group : Production
Highest Production Volume after TA: Both Olefins & Aromatics & Styrenics
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 1H16 1H17 94% 95% 88% 84% 54% 95% 94% 74% % U-Rate
88% 91% 89% 82% 67% 93% 89% 80% Polyolefins 99% 99% 87% 85% 42% 96% 99% 69%
Olefins
Styrenics Aromatics
Aromatics & Styrenics Olefins
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 1H16 1H17 98% 89% 80% 93% 61% 97% 94% 79%
% U-Rate
90% 86% 77% 80% 71% 95%
88% 83%
Polystyrenics97% 78% 49% 105% 69% 107%
87% 88%
Styrenics106% 98% 100% 98% 47% 94%
102% 71%
AromaticsPolystyrenics
55 51 43 36 10 69 106 78 134 138 136 126 99 140 272 239
189 189 179 162 108 209 378 317
Olefins Polyolefins
Unit : KMT Unit : KMT
Remark : - Utilization rate calculated based on the main products
2Q17: 95% Olefins U-Rate at 209 KMT: the highest production volume after turnaround 1H17: 74% Olefins U-Rate as 1Q17 TA 2Q17: 97% Aromatics & Styrenics U-Rate at 181 KTA the highest production volume 1H17 : 79% Aromatics & Styrenics U-Rate
43
UHV COD44
Financial Performance
2Q16 1Q17 2Q17 1H16 1H17 2Q16 1Q17 2Q17 1H16 1H17 Net Sales 40,471 36,866 49,930 78,721 86,796 68.87 100.45 82.25 65.82 88.84 Market GIM 7,869 5,762 8,240 16,192 14,002 13.39 15.69 13.58 13.54 14.33 Stock Gain/(Loss) 2,248 1,270 (706) 1,246 564 3.83 3.46 (1.16) 1.04 0.58 LCM (6) 5 (6) 284 (1) (0.01) 0.01 (0.01) 0.24 (0.00) Oil Hedging Gain/(Loss) (821) (300) (466) (1,741) (766) (1.40) (0.82) (0.77) (1.46) (0.78) Net Stock Gain/(Loss) 1,421 975 (1,178) (210) (203) 2.42 2.65 (1.94) (0.18) (0.20) Accounting GIM 9,290 6,737 7,062 15,981 13,799 15.81 18.34 11.64 13.36 14.13 OPEX + Selling Exp. (3,496) (3,503) (3,785) (6,746) (7,288) (5.95) (9.54) (6.23) (5.64) (7.46) Other Incomes 312 315 429 623 744 0.54 0.86 0.71 0.52 0.76 EBITDA 6,107 3,549 3,706 9,859 7,255 10.39 9.66 6.12 8.24 7.43 Cost of Finance (222) (542) (537) (418) (1,079) (0.38) (1.48) (0.88) (1.10) (0.35) FX Gain/(Loss) 24 535 52 361 587 0.04 1.46 0.09 0.30 0.60 Impairment Gain/(Loss)
2 (0) 238
Investment Gain/(Loss) 55 95 117 22 212 0.09 0.26 0.19 0.02 0.21 Other Expenses (20) (4) (5) (26) (9) (0.03) (0.01) (0.01) (0.02) (0.01) Income Tax (847) (408) (191) (311) (599) (1.44) (1.11) (0.31) (0.26) (0.61) Net Profit 3,706 2,365 1,228 6,720 3,594 6.30 6.44 2.04 5.61 3.68 Unit: $/bbl Unit: MB
45
Remark
Net Sales Crude run (KBD): 2Q17= 194 KBD, 1Q17= 116 KBD, 2Q16=182 KBD
QoQ: 35% (price 20%, volume 55%) YoY: 23% (price 10%, volume 13%)
QoQ: $2.11/bbl (Prod. spread $3.14/bbl , Everest $1.03/bbl)
YoY: $0.19/bbl (Prod. spread $1.63/bbl , Everest $1.82/bbl)
QoQ: 2,153 MB ( 4.59$/bbl)
(2Q17=-1,178, 1Q17=+975)
YoY: 2,599 MB ( 4.36$/bbl) (2Q17=-1,178, 2Q16=+1,421)
QoQ: increased by employee and repair & maintenance expenses YoY: increased by consultant and donation expenses
QoQ: increased by port income, tank rental and throughput fee YoY: increased by Lube blending service
QoQ: decreased by increase capitalizing of the interest during construction of PPE&PPC YoY: increase after the COD of UHV project
Mar 31, 17 = 34.61 THB/USD (USD Loan = 373 M.USD)
and share of profit from associates
Financial Highlight: 2Q17 performance
QoQ YoY Net Sales 40,471 36,866 49,930 35% 23% Market GIM 7,869 5,762 8,240 43% 5% Stock Gain/(Loss) 2,248 1,270 (706) (156)% (131)% LCM (6) 5 (6) (220)%
(821) (300) (466) (55)% 43% Net Stock Gain/(Loss) 1,421 975 (1,178) (221)% (183)% Accounting GIM 9,290 6,737 7,062 5% (24)% OPEX + Selling Exp. (3,495) (3,503) (3,786) (8)% (8)% Other Incomes 312 315 429 36% 38% EBITDA 6,107 3,549 3,706 4% (39)% Cost of Finance (222) (542) (537) 1% (142)% FX Gain/(Loss) 23 535 52 (90)% 126% Impairment Gain/(Loss)
(99)%
55 95 117 23% 111% Other Expenses (20) (4) (5) (25)% 75% Income Tax (847) (408) (191) 53% 77% Net Profit 3,706 2,365 1,228 (48)% (67)% Unit: MB % Change 2Q16 1Q17 2Q17
46
Remark
Net Sales Crude run (KBD): 1H17= 155 KBD, 1H16=184 KBD
10% (price 20%, volume 10%)
$0.79/bbl (Prod. spread $0.76/bbl , Everest $1.55/bbl)
8 MB ( 0.02$/bbl)
(1H17=-203, 1H16=-210)
BSA service, consultant and donation expenses offset with lower insurance expense
Recording of TPI Polene shares (28.7 M.Shares @ 2.26 THB/Share = 64.86 MB)
increase after COD of UHV project
Fx.rate Jun 30,17 = 34.15 THB/USD (USD Loan = 135 M.USD) Jun 30, 16 = 35.34 THB/USD (USD Loan = 393 M.USD)
and share of profit from associates
Effective tax rate = 14% due to tax benefit from recording of DTA from major turnaround
Financial Highlight: 1H17 performance
Net Sales 78,721 86,796 10% Market GIM 16,192 14,002 (14)% Stock Gain/(Loss) 1,246 564 (55)% LCM 284 (1) (100)% Oil Hedging Gain/(Loss) (1,741) (766) 56% Net Stock Gain/(Loss) (210) (203) 3% Accounting GIM 15,981 13,799 (14)% OPEX + Selling Exp. (6,745) (7,289) 8% Other Incomes 623 744 19% EBITDA 9,859 7,255 (26)% Cost of Finance (418) (1,079) 158% FX Gain/(Loss) 361 587 63% Impairment Gain/(Loss) (0) 238
22 212 864% Other Expenses (26) (9) 65% Income Tax (311) (599) (93)% Net Profit 6,720 3,594 (47)% Unit: MB % Change 1H16 1H17
93% 17% 23% 61% 16% 70% 29% 1%
Financial Highlight: 2Q17 & 1H17 Performance
Better MKT GIM from higher U-rate after TA though soften spread and stock loss from lower crude price
40,471 36,866 49,930 78,721 86,796
QoQ 35% YoY 23%
Overview of Business
Net Sales
(net excise tax)
Dubai (Avg.)
Unit: $/bbl
Net Income
Unit: MB Unit: MB YoY 67% QoQ 48%
EBITDA
Unit: MB
6,107 3,549 3,706 9,859 7,255
YoY 39% QoQ 4%
49,930 MB
2Q17
Petroleum Petrochemical Utilities and Others
3,706 MB 1,228 MB
Net Sales
(net excise tax)
EBITDA Net income
47
YoY 10% YoY 26% YoY 47%
1H17
1% 95% 4% 25% 61% 14% 68% 30% 2%
86,796 MB 7,255 MB 3,594 MB
3,706 2,365 1,228 6,720 3,594 2Q16 1Q17 2Q17 1H16 1H17 Market GIM($/bbl) 13.39 15.69 13.58 13.54 14.33 Crude run KBD 182 116 194 184 155 43 53 50 37 51
879 2,202 1,024 1,228
832 456 198
3,461 2,000 992 283
829
173 191 2,202 1,178 52 152
48 Unit: MB
Net Profit 2Q17 Net Profit 1Q17 Volume Increase Margin Decrease Everest Project
Decrease Selling
OPEX Others Stock Loss & Hedging +LCM Depre. Operating Profit 2Q17
2,365
Net Income: 2Q17 vs 1Q17
Operating Profit
Net Stock Gain/(Loss) FX gain Impair. ReversalOperating Tax Non-
Tax
Operating Profit 151%
Net Income: 2Q17 vs 1Q17
Operating profit improved from volume increase & efficiency improvement but margin drop
Sales Qty. (Exclude PTTGC) 1Q17 = 11.06 Mbbl 2Q17 = 17.31 Mbbl879 2,202 1,024 1,228
832 456 198
3,461 2,000 992 283
829
173 191 2,202 1,178 52 152
49
Net Income: 2Q17 vs 2Q16
2,529 1,950 1,024 1,024 1,228
1,157 20
454 1,444 1,240 291 538 15 237 1,178 52 152
Unit: MB
Net Profit 2Q17 Net Profit 1Q17 Volume Increase Margin Decrease Everest Project
Decrease Selling
OPEX Others Stock Loss & Hedging +LCM Depre. Operating Profit 2Q17
2,365
Net Income: 2Q17 vs 1Q17
Net Profit 2Q17 Net Profit 2Q16 Volume Increase Margin Decrease Everest Project
Increase Selling Exp. + OPEX Others Stock Loss & Hedging +LCM Operating Profit 2Q17
3,706
Operating Tax
Operating Profit
Net Stock Gain/(Loss) FX gainOperating Profit
Net Stock Gain/(Loss) FX gainUnit: MB
Depre. Non-
Tax Operating Tax Non-
Tax
Operating Profit 151% Operating Profit 13%
Net Income: 2Q17 vs 1Q17 & 2Q17 vs 2Q16
Operating profit improved from volume increase & efficiency improvement but margin drop
2,202
Sales Qty.(Exclude PTTGC) 1/60 = 11.06 Mbbl 2/60 = 17.31 MbblEverest 1/60 = 681 2/60 = 1,673 1/60 = (3,503) 2/60 = (3,786 1/60 = (1,090) 2/60 = (1,919)
Other Rev. 114 Income Tax 217 Sales Qty.(Exclude PTTGC) 2/59 = 16.36 Mbbl 2/60 = 17.31 Mbbl1/60 = (1,381) 2/60 = (1,919)
50
ไตรมาส 2/60 มีก าไรสุทธิ 1,228 ล้านบาท เทียบกับไตรมาส 1/60 ลดลง 1,137 ล้านบาท
หน่วย : ล ้ านบาท
2,365
3,461 2,000 992 2,153 283 483 234 437
1,228
Everest 1/60 = 681 2/60 = 1,673
1/60 = 975 2/60 = (1,178) 1/60 = (3,503) 2/60 = (3,786) 1/60 = 535 2/60 = 52
Net Profit 2/60 Net Profit 1/60 Volume Increase Margin Decrease Stock Loss & Hedging +LCM Everest Project
35.29 บาท/$ (ไตรมาส 1/60) เป็น 34.47 บาท/$ (ไตรมาส 2/60)
านบาท จาก Operation 687 ล ้ านบาท Commercial 275 ล ้ านบาท และ Procurement & Corporate 30 ล ้ านบาท (มีผลต่อ GIM 1.03 $/bbl 967 ล ้ านบาท จาก Operation และ Commercial)
านบาท) ลดลง -4.59 $/bbl (-2,153 ล ้ านบาท)
านบาท ส่วนใหญ่จากค่าใช ้ จ่ายพนักงาน ค่าที่ปรึกษา ค่าซ่อมบ ารุง และค่าใช ้ บริการภายนอก
มาปิดที่ 34.15 บาท/$
อยค่าและตัดจ าหน่ายทรัพย์สิน ลดลง เนื่องจากไตรมาส 1/60 มีการกลับรายการด ้ อยค่าในกลุ่ม IP จ านวน 232 ล ้ านบาท (โดยเป็นก าไรจากการประเมินราคาที่ดินของ IRPC เพิ่มขึ้น 81 MB และ อาคาร เครื่องจักร ของ บ. IRPC OIL เพิ่มขึ้น 151 MB)
จ่ายภาษีเงินได ้ ลดลง อัตราแลกเปลี่ยน (THB/USD) ณ วันที่ ถัวเฉลี่ย 31 มี.ค.=34.61 1Q/60 = 35.29 30 มิ.ย.=34.15 2Q/60 = 34.47 ราคาน ้ามันดิบดูไบเฉลี่ย 1Q/60 = 53.12 $/bbl 2Q/60 = 49.77 $/bbl
Decrease Selling Exp. + OPEX
Sales Qty.(Exclude PTTGC) 1/60 = 11.06 Mbbl 2/60 = 17.31 Mbbl Depre. 829 Other Rev. 114 Income Tax 217Others Reversal of Impairment
1/60 = 236 2/60 = 2
51
ไตรมาส 2/60 มีก าไรสุทธิ 1,228 ล้านบาท เทียบกับไตรมาส 2/59 ลดลง 2,478 ล้านบาท
หน่วย : ล ้ านบาท Net Profit 2/60 Net Profit 2/59 Volume Increase Margin Decrease Everest Project Selling Exp. + OPEX
Increase
(ไตรมาส 2/59) เป็น 34.47 บาท/$ (ไตรมาส 2/60)
านบาท จาก Operation 990 ล ้ านบาท, Commercial 110 ล ้ านบาท และ Procurement & Corporate 140 ล ้ านบาท (มีผลต่อ GIM 1.82 $/bbl 1,119 ล ้ านบาท จาก Operation และ Commercial)
านบาท) ลดลง -4.36 $/bbl (-2,599 ล ้ านบาท)
านบาท ส่วนใหญ่เพิ่มขึ้นจากค่าใช ้ จ่ายพนักงาน เงินบริจาคให ้ สถาบันวิทยสิริเมธีและ ร.ร.ก าเนิดวิทย์ และค่าที่ปรึกษา
ลดลง 656 ล ้ านบาท จากก าไรสุทธิที่ลดลง 2,478 ล ้ านบาท
นทุนทางการเงิน โดยมีรายได ้ อื่น และก าไรจากเงินลงทุนเพิ่มขึ้น อัตราแลกเปลี่ยน (THB/USD) ณ วันที่ ถัวเฉลี่ย 30 มิ.ย.59 = 35.34 2Q/59 = 35.45 30 มิ.ย.60 = 34.15 2Q/60 = 34.47 ราคาน ้ามันดิบดูไบเฉลี่ย 2Q/59 = 43.18 $/bbl 2Q/60 = 49.77 $/bbl
3,706
454 1,444 1,240 2,599 291 29 656 523
1,228
Sales Qty.(Exclude PTTGC) 2/59 = 16.36 Mbbl 2/60 = 17.31 Mbbl 2/59 = 433 2/60 = 1,673 2/59 = 1,421 2/60 = (1,178) 2/59 = (3,495) 2/60 = (3,786) 2/59 = 23 2/60 = 52Stock Loss & Hedging +LCM Others
2/59 = (874) 2/60 = (191)Tax Income
52
สะสม 6 เดือน/60 มีก าไรสุทธิ 3,594 ล้านบาท เทียบกับปีก่อน ลดลง 3,126 ล้านบาท
เป็น 34.88 บาท/$ (Avg. 1H60) ในขณะที่ส่วนต่างราคาลดลง 0.76 $/bbl
านบาท จาก Operation 1,456 ล ้ านบาท, และ Procurement & Corporate 229 ล ้ านบาท ในขณะที่ลดลงจาก Commercial 7 ล ้ านบาท (มีผลต่อ GIM 1.55 $/bbl, 1,441 ล ้ านบาท จาก Operation และ Commercial)
านบาท) เพิ่มขึ้น -0.02 $/bbl (+8 ล ้ านบาท)
านบาท จากค่าประกันภัย ในขณะที่ค่าที่ปรึกษา และ Corporate Image เพิ่มขึ้น
เพิ่มขึ้น เนื่องจากสะสม 6 เดือน/59 บันทึก Deferred Tax Asset 1,021 ล ้ านบาท จากขาดทุนสะสม คงเหลือของปี 58 821 ล ้ านบาท และขาดทุนจากการตัดจ าหน่ายเงินลงทุน RTT 200 ล ้ านบาท
นทุนทางการเงิน และค่าเสื่อมราคา โดยมีก าไรจากการกลับรายการด ้ อยค่าในกลุ่ม IP และก าไรจากเงินลงทุนเพิ่มขึ้น
อัตราแลกเปลี่ยน (THB/USD) ณ วันที่ ถัวเฉลี่ย 30 มิ.ย.59 35.34 1H59 = 35.64 30 มิ.ย.60 34.15 1H60 = 34.88 ราคาน ้ามันดิบดูไบเฉลี่ย 1H59 = 36.80 $/bbl 1H60 = 51.44 $/bbl
6,720
2,036 1,595 1,678 8 544 226 288 575
3,594
Net Profit 1H59 Net Profit 1H60 Volume Decrease Margin Decrease Stock Gain & Hedging Loss +LCM Others Everest Project
Selling Exp. + OPEX Tax
Sales Qty.(Exclude PTTGC) 1H59 = 32.59 Mbbl 1H60 = 28.37 Mbblหน่วย : ล ้ านบาท
53
Lower of Tax in 2Q17
Tax Rate 2Q17 2Q16 1Q17 2Q17 2Q16 1Q17 Non-BOI 20% 946 4,402 2,117 189
0% 471 160 662
Profit 2
15 Deferred Tax
1,417 4,562 2,778 191
EBT TAX Unit: MB
54
Gain/(Loss) from investment
Unit: MB Gain/(Loss) from investment 2Q17 2Q16 1Q17 QoQ YoY 1H17 1H16 YoY UCHA 25% 26 24
56
107 101
IRPC Clean Power 49% 42 47 13 29 5
88 33
(จดทะเบียนเลิก 3.7.17) 50% 0.4
1 1
2
20% 1
3
51 31 2 49 20 53 31 22 SUM 117
55
95 22 62 212 21 191
Total 117 55 95 22 62 212 22 191
Take Equity
55
2Q17 Hedging
Unit: MB M.USD MB M.USD MB FUEL USE 9
1
10 0.8
9
34.30 1Q17 2Q17
6.3 6.4 6.1 4.5 3.1 3.7 3.1 2.4 1.7 2.5 2.5 2.7
2 6 10 14 18 22 26
10 30 50 70 90 110
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 USD/bbl USD/bbl
Hedging (RHS) Fuel Use (RHS) Dubai
Step 1 : Fuel Use
Hedge at $98 in 1Q14
Settlement in 3Q15-4Q15
Fuel Use Hedge vs gain/loss from Physical Fuel Use
3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8
physical & hedge Fuel Use at $3.8/bbl 52
2015 = -1,160 MB 2016 = -3,304 MB Loss from Fuel Use Hedge
Dubai ($/bbl)
Step 2 : Restructure#1
at $70 in 1Q15
Settlement in 3Q15-4Q16
Step 3 : Restructure#2
at $60 in 3Q15
Settlement in 3Q15-4Q17
4Q17
1H17 Cash Flow Statement
1H16 1H17
Operating
3,868 6,879 EBITDA 9,859 7,255 Changes in assets/liabilities (5,991) (376)
Unit : MB
Financing
(1,374) 985 Drawdown/(Repayment) of ST/LT Loan/Bond 4,348 7,143 Interest / Dividend paid (5,722) (6,158) Free Cash Flow (856) (846)
1H16 1H17
Investing
(4,724) (7,725) CAPEX (PP&E, Intangible asset) (4,724) (7,725) Other investments
(2,230) 139 Beginning Cash 3,576 2,042 Ending Cash 1,346 2,181
57
58
Key milestone of UHV
heavy crude molecule
GIM 0.3$/bbl Catalyst Cooler Feed adj. & Reformulate Catalyst
and reformulated Catalyst
CAPEX : ~ $ 1.1 bn COD : Jul 2016 GIM 1.5-2.0 $/bbl
18% Propylene Yield
(only short term)
Gasoline Maximization
2017 2018 Gasoline Maximization Project
UHV Project Catalyst Cooler Project
2016
9% 9% 9% 8% 12% 11% 26% 20% 16% 14% 23% 22% 5% 5% 5% 6% 60% 60% 40% 40% Feed after Catalyst reformed Feed +Max Gasoline Gasoline Benzene Rich 10% 12% 11% 31% 15% 18% 3% 60% 40% Feed Actual LSWR/VGO 9% 9% 12% 26% 16% 23% 5% 100% Feed Design
59
Key milestone of UHV
2017 2018
Catalyst Cooler
heavy crude molecule
2016
Feed adj. & Reformulate Catalyst
and reformulated Catalyst
CAPEX : ~ $ 1.1 bn COD : Jul 2016 GIM 1.5-2.0 $/bbl
Assumption : spread propylene18% Propylene Yield
(only short term)
Gasoline Maximization
9% 9% 12% 26% 16% 23% 5% 100% Feed Design HS-ATB Ethylene Proylene C3,C4 HCN/LCN LCO FO / FG Internal use & Fuel Loss
Current
Use lighter feed
UHV Yield
Reformulate Catalyst Gasoline Maximization Catalyst Cooler
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Power of Growth :
EVEREST Forever (E4E) Program for Sustaining Performance
ETP Revamp Project
Ethylene 150 -200 KTA
Naphtha , LPG 400 - 500 KTA
Px Project (new)
Propylene 80 - 100 KTA Butadiene 20 - 30 KTA Paraxylene 900 – 1,000 KTA Benzene 200 - 250 KTA Other Products 100 -120 KTA
Available Feedstock
HN ,HCN , MX ,Tol
1,200-1,300 KTA
Power of Growth :
Project under study: Beyond Everest
Pygas 60 KTA Raffinate ~ 90 KTA LPG ~10 KTA
Total 1,200-1,370 KTA Total 250 - 330 KTA
Existing + UHV : Petrochem. Yield 15 % After “Beyond Everest”: Petrochem. Yield 28-30%
61
2Q2022 COD 1Q2017 Feasibility study and Technology selection 3Q2017 PMC/Basic Engineer Package/Feed ITB 3Q2018 EPC Bidding 2Q2019 Construction
2022 2018 2017 2019
CAPEX: $1.3bn - $1.6 bn IRR : 13% - 15%
2018+ 2009 - 2017
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Smart Operation (AI)
INCIDENT
Management ZA ZA KID ZA ZA RUP RUPPetro troSIM SIM ProSt Stre ream
W M S
PIMS-AO AO
2.0
TAS
Power
Digital
IR IRPC C 4.0
“ IRPC 4.0” Enhance Competitiveness by Digitization
Power of Digital:
“ IRPC 4.0” Enhance Competitiveness by Digitization
63
Power of People:
IRPC New DNA
NEW DN NEW DNA
Individual Ownership
คิดและท าเหมือนเจ้าของ
Result-Oriented
มุ่งผลลัพธ์
Promise and Deliver
รักษาสัญญา
Continuous Improvement
พัฒนาต่อเนื่อง
Do Things Together
ท างานร่วมกันเพื่อผลลัพธ์ที่ดีกว่า
No Bias
จริงใจสื่อสารตรงไปตรงมา
Actively Solve The Problem
แก้ไขปัญหาเชิงรุก
Following orders Process-oriented Promise but delay Business as usual Silo-based Biased reward Too many commentators
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020FElectricity 240 MW 64
IRPC Clean Power Company Limited
Unit : MB
Customers
60 MW 180 MW 25-year contract 27-year contract
Construction periodGPSC 51%
IRPC 49%
Shareholding CP Phase II CP Phase I
Revenue
COD (Phase I) : Nov15 Capacity Electricity : 45 MW Steam : 170 T/hr
COD (Phase II) : 4Q17 Company IRPC - CP Type SPP Cogeneration Capacity
Location IRPC Industrial Zone, Rayong Land size 118 Rai Investment 13,600 MB
To contribute ~ 300 MB per yr NI to IRPC