IRPC Public Company Limited Opportunity Day : 3Q17 & 9M17 Result - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
IRPC Public Company Limited Opportunity Day : 3Q17 & 9M17 Result - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
IRPC Public Company Limited Opportunity Day : 3Q17 & 9M17 Result 21 November 2017 Agenda 3Q17 & 9M17 Highlight Operation & Financial Performance Project Update Industry Outlook 2 Financial Highlight: 3Q17 & 9M17 Performance
3Q17 & 9M17 Highlight Operation & Financial Performance Project Update
Agenda
Industry Outlook
2
Financial Highlight: 3Q17 & 9M17 Performance
Higher spread & net stock gain resulted in good performance
41,622 49,930 52,355 120,343 139,151
QoQ 5% YoY 26%
Overview of Business
Net Sales
(net excise tax)
Dubai (Avg.)
Unit: $/bbl
Net Income
Unit: MB Unit: MB YoY 149% QoQ 164%
EBITDA
Unit: MB
3,098 3,706 6,635 12,957 13,890
YoY 114% QoQ 79%
2Q17
Petroleum Petrochemical Utilities and Others
Net Sales
(net excise tax)
EBITDA Net income
3
YoY 16% YoY 7% YoY 15%
3Q17
42% 50% 8% 68% 31% 1%
52,355 MB 1,307 1,228 3,248 8,027 6,841
3Q16 2Q17 3Q17 9M16 9M17
6,635 MB 43 50 51 39 51
Crude run KBD 176 194 201 181 170
36% 59% 5% Planned TA in 1Q17
- 10%
93% 17% 23% 61% 16% 70% 29% 1%
49,930 MB 3,706 MB 1,228 MB 3,248 MB Market GIM ($/bbl) 12.5 13.6 15.1 13.2 14.6
- Acct. GIM ($/bbl)
11.4 11.6 16.1 12.7 14.9
3Q17 & 9M17 Highlight Operation & Financial Performance Project Update
Agenda
Industry Outlook
4
+ Higher ULG95 price impacted from Hurricane Harvey + lower inventory in Singapore after export to Mexico + Strong demand from ME and India + Demand from Indonesia and Vietnam
5
Petroleum Spread
Better Refinery Spread from strong demand and lower supply by Hurricane impact
500SN –FO 180 3.5%S Spread 150 BS – FO 180 3.5%S Spread Asphalt – FO 180 3.5%S Spread
$/BBL $/BBL $/BBL
Lube Base Spread Refinery Spread
Gas oil - Dubai ULG 95 - Dubai HSFO - Dubai
18.8 14.5 11.6 14.6 14.8 14.2 16.1
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
(5.2) (8.7) (4.3) (1.7) (3.1) (1.8) (1.4)
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
9.6 10.5 11.0 12.0 11.8 11.4 13.9
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 (7) (48) (61) (80) (13) (38) (28) 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
$/TON
844 780 725 602 635 658 579 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
$/TON
442 418 443 367 451 556 528
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
$/TON
6.1 0.7 (1.9) 0.2 1.1 (1.3) (0.2)
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
QoQ 85%
Naphtha - Dubai
+ Higher Cracker plant’s utilization rate
QoQ 13% QoQ 22% QoQ 12% QoQ 22% QoQ 26% QoQ 5%
+ Tight supply impacted from Hurricane + High demand from Sri Lanka + Lower supply from Europe, Persian Gulf and export from Russia + Increasing demand from ME for power generation
- Plant resumed operation after main. SD in Asia
- Lower demand during Monsoon season
+ Tight supply from refineries’ main. SD in Singapore
- Plant resumed operation after main. SD in Asia
- Lower demand during Monsoon season
1.8 1.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.3 3.7 1.7 7.6 7.6 7.1 7.6 4.7 7.8 8.6 22.7 21.1 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.8 1.7 1.7 4.7 4.2
0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 1.0 0.6 1.7 2.2 0.3 0.1
- 0.1
0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3
1.0 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.8 0.9 2.5 2.2
0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.9 0.9 2.5 2.3
0.9 1.2 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.9 2.6
13.6 13.1 12.4 13.6 8.1 14.1 14.2 38.9 36.6
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 9M16 9M17
RDCC Lube Asphalt LPG + Other Naphtha Gasoline Diesel Fuel
Petroleum Production
Higher crude run after ADU II internal column retrofit enhance capacity
187 182 176 188 116 194 201 181 170 Crude Run (KBD)
87% 85% 82% 87% 53% 90% 93% 84% 79% % U-Rate TA in 1Q17 TA
Unit : Mbbl
Remark: Excluding internal use quantity Middle East, 66% Far East, 19% Domestic, 6% Others, 9%
Source of Crude
3Q17: 93% Utilization Rate
- QoQ: 3% increase from ADU II capacity improvement
- YoY : 11% increase from higher U-Rate of ADU II & RDCC units
9M17: 79% Utilization Rate
- 5% decrease according to Planned Turnaround in 1Q17
6
Petroleum Production
20,981 23,354 24,221 29,792 21,405 30,314 31,053 68,556 82,772 Refinery 24,966 27,088 27,589 33,509 24,344 34,754 35,380 79,643 94,478
Petroleum
3,985 3,734 3,368 3,717 2,939 4,440 4,327 11,087 11,706
Lube Base
3.2 1.4 2.0 4.0 2.4 2.1 3.8 2.2 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.1 1.4 2.4 2.5 2.1 2.5 2.3 6.0 4.0 4.1 5.4 4.8 4.6 5.9 4.7 5.1 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 9M16 9M17 Lube Base Refinery
Market GRM Sales Volume & Revenue
17.0 16.6 16.2 17.3 10.4 17.6 18.5 49.7 46.5
Crude intake M.bbl
Unit : $/bbl
Sales Distribution
Local 59% Export 41%
9M17
Top 5 Export Destination in 3Q17 : Singapore, Malaysia, Cambodia, Laos, Japan
3Q17 : Petroleum revenue
- 2% increase QoQ: 2% volume increase vs stable price
- 28% increase YoY : 11% volume & 17% price increase
3Q17 Market GRM was $5.9/bbl:
- $1.3/bbl increase QoQ due to higher Refinery’s spread
- $1.8/bbl increase YoY from higher Diesel & FO spread
Local 54% Export 46%
YoY 11% QoQ 2% YoY 28% QoQ 2% Sales volume (M.bbl) Revenue (MB)
7
YoY 19%
Petroleum Group : Sales & Gross Refinery Margin (GRM)
Refinery products spread brought better market GRM
3Q17
9M17 : Petroleum revenue
- 19% increase YoY: 23% price increase vs 4% volume decrease
9M17 Market GRM was $5.1/bbl:
- $0.4/bbl increase YoY due to higher Diesel & FO spread
TA in 1Q17 TA 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 9M16 9M17
YoY 4% 13.2 12.1 12.9 13.9 9.0 14.1 14.3 38.1 37.3
2.0 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.1 1.7 1.8 5.5 4.6
15.2 13.9 14.5 15.6 10.1 15.8 16.1 43.6 42.0
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 9M16 9M17
Lube Base Refinery
224 184 175 192 200 170 159
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
$/TON
668 688 668 529 591 544 622 239 188 177 232 171 286 201
907 876 845 761 762 830 823
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
$/TON
Ethylene-NP HDPE-Ethylene
254 262 267 215 192 202 182
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
$/TON
809 806 810 842 1,029 878 977
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
$/TON
304 308 339 272 435 296 323 295 376 360 366 228 365 356
600 684 699 638 663 661 679
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
$/TON
Propylene-NP PP-Propylene
8
Petrochemical Spread
Shortage supply support Styrenics spread, lower Aromatics spread from soften demand
HDPE-Ethylene –Naphtha Spread PP-Propylene –Naphtha Spread MX – Naphtha Spread Toluene – Naphtha Spread PS –Naphtha Spread ABS –Naphtha Spread
Olefins Styrenics Aromatics
854 897 984 1,092 1,382 1,226 1,377
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
$/TON
QoQ 1% QoQ 3% QoQ 6% QoQ 11% QoQ 12% QoQ 10%
- RM prices moved up following crude
- il price
- Feedstock prices increased following
crude oil price
- Soften demand
+Product prices rose following crude
- il price
+Higher demand to support the production for upcoming festivals
- Lower Demand
- Higher supply from plants
resumed operation after SD +Higher demand to support manufacturing season +Shortage of RM caused by Hurricane + Increasing Demand + Tight supply due to impacted from Hurricane
101 92 97 96 48 95 101 290 244
3 1 1 4 3 2 3 5 8
81 75 73 82 62 85 81 228 228
184 168 170 182 113 182 184 523 480
49 52 44 29 10 53 58 146 121 134 139 137 126 99 140 162 410 401
183 191 181 154 109 193 220 555 522
Petrochemical Group : Production
Higher U-Rate after plant efficiency improvement program
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 9M16 9M17 94% 95% 88% 84% 54% 95% 97% 92% 82%
% U-Rate 88% 91% 89% 82% 67% 93% 98% 89% 86% Polyolefins 99% 99% 87% 85% 42% 96% 97% 95% 78%
Olefins
Styrenics Aromatics
Aromatics & Styrenics Olefins
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 9M16 9M17 98% 89% 80% 93% 61% 97% 104%
89%
87% % U-Rate
90% 86% 77% 80% 71% 95% 92% 84% 86%
Polystyrenics
97% 78% 49% 105% 69% 107% 113% 75% 96%
Styrenics
106% 98% 100% 98% 47% 94% 110% 101% 84%
Aromatics
Polystyrenics
Olefins Polyolefins
Unit : KMT Unit : KMT
Remark : - Utilization rate calculated based on the main products
- volume excluded internal use
3Q17: 97% Olefins U-Rate at 220 KMT: PPE started up in Sept. 2017 with 160 KTA capacity 9M17: 82% Olefins U-Rate as planned TA in 1Q17
9
UHV COD
3Q17: 104% Aromatics & Styrenics U-Rate at 184 KTA owing to plant efficiency improvement 9M17 : YoY slightly lower U-rate given with planned TA in 1Q17
182 152 163 180 114 160 185 497 459 196 212 226 224 169 237 270 633 676
378 364 389 404 283 397 455 1,130 1,135 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 9M16 9M17
Aromatics & Styrenics Olefins & Polyolefins
Petrochemical Group : Sales & Product to Feed (PTF)
Higher sales volume and better Styrenics spread
1.8 2.4 1.5 2.4 4.0 2.9 2.9 1.9 3.2 4.9 5.9 5.7 3.8 5.7 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.3
6.7 8.3 7.2 6.2 9.7 8.0 8.2 7.4 8.5
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 9M16 9M17
Unit : $/bbl Aromatics & Styrenics Olefins & Polyolefins Crude intake (M.bbl)
Sales Volume and Revenue
17.0 16.6 16.2 17.3 10.4 17.6 18.5 49.7 46.5
Sales Distribution
Local 51% Export 49%
3Q17
Top 5 Export Destination in 3Q17: Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, Australia, Vietnam
Local 56% Export 44%
3Q17 : Petrochemical revenue
- 12% QoQ: 15% volume increase vs 3% price decrease
- 22% YoY: 17% volume increase & 5% price increase
3Q17 Market PTF was $8.2/bbl
- $0.2/bbl QoQ mainly from Styrenics spread
- $1.0/bbl YoY mainly from better Styrenics spread
YoY 17% QoQ 15% YoY 22% QoQ 12%
Sales volume (KMT) Revenue (MB)
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 9M16 9M17
10
YoY 0.4% YoY 11%
Market PTF 9M17 9M17 : Petrochemical revenue
- 11% increase YoY: 11% price increase vs stable volume
9M17 Market PTF was $8.5/bbl
- $1.1/bbl increase YoY mainly from Styrenics spread
12,471 12,573 13,292 13,780 11,951 14,472 16,251 38,334 42,674 Petro chem 6,781 7,497 8,058 7,445 6,798 8,361 9,543 22,335 24,702
Olefins
5,690 5,076 5,234 6,335 5,153 6,111 6,708 15,999 17,972
Aro& Styrenics
3,625 2,327 2,323 3,341 1,748 2,760 3,662 8,276 8,171
4,103 4,857 4,091 3,818 3,561 4,864 5,107 13,051 13,531 595 685 665 603 453 616 562 1,944 1,631
8,323 7,869 7,079 7,762 5,762 8,240 9,331 23,271 23,333
GRM PTF Power & Utility
13.7 13.4 12.5 12.6 15.7 13.6 15.1 13.2 14.6
(1.2) 3.8 0.1 2.4 3.4 (1.2) 1.8 0.9 1.0
(1.5) (1.4) (1.2) (1.9) (0.8) (0.8) (0.7) (1.4) (0.8)
11.0 15.8 11.4 13.1 18.3 11.6 16.1 12.7 14.9 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 9M16 9M17
Gross Integrated Margin (GIM)
Better spread and stock gain resulted in higher Accounting GIM Market GIM
Unit: $/bbl
Accounting GIM
Unit: $/bbl
Unit: MB
8,323 7,869 7,079 7,762 5,762 8,240 9,331 23,271 23,333
(712) 2,242 44 1,471 1,275 (712) 1,098 1,574 1,661 (920) (821) (686) (1,194) (300) (466) (455) (2,427) (1,221)
6,691 9,290 6,437 8,039 6,737 7,062 9,974 22,418 23,773
Market GIM Stk G/(L) & LCM Hedging
11
3.2 1.4 2.0 4.0 2.4 2.1 3.9 2.2 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.1 1.5 2.4 2.5 2.1 2.5 2.3
6.0 4.0 4.1 5.4 4.8 4.6 5.9 4.7 5.1 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 9M16 9M17
Refinery Lube Base 4.9 5.9 5.7 3.8 5.7 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.3 1.8 2.4 1.5 2.4 4.0 2.9 2.9 1.9 3.2
6.7 8.3 7.2 6.2 9.7 8.0 8.2 7.4 8.5
Olefins Aromatics&Styrenics
Market GIM by business
Unit: $/bbl
Petrochemical Petroleum
Unit: MB
6.0 4.0 4.1 5.4 4.8 4.6 5.9 4.7 5.1 6.7 8.3 7.2 6.2 9.7 8.0 8.2 7.4 8.5
1.0 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.0
13.7 13.4 12.5 12.6 15.7 13.6 15.1 13.2 14.6 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 9M16 9M17
Accounting GIM
- 3Q17 Acct GIM was $16.1/bbl vs 2Q17 of $11.6/bbl; higher
Market GIM from spread and stock gain in 3Q17
- 9M17 Acct GIM was $14.9/bbl vs 9M16 of $12.7/bbl; higher
Market GIM and lower hedging loss Market GIM
- 3Q17 Market GIM was $15.1/bbl, higher by $1.5/bbl
mainly from higher Refinery & Styrenics spread
- 9M17 Market GIM was $14.6/bbl, higher $1.4/bbl from
higher Refinery & Styrenics spread
12
Financial Performance
3Q16 2Q17 3Q17 QoQ YoY 9M16 9M17 Net Sales 41,622 49,930 52,355 5% 26% 120,343 139,151 16% Market GIM 7,079 8,240 9,331 13% 32% 23,271 23,333 0% Stock Gain/(Loss) 40 (706) 1,098 255% 2645% 1,286 1,662 29% LCM 4 (6) (0) 92% (111)% 288 (1) (100)% Oil Hedging Gain/(Loss) (686) (466) (455) 2% 34% (2,427) (1,221) 50% Net Stock Gain/(Loss) (642) (1,178) 643 155% 200% (853) 440 152% Accounting GIM 6,437 7,062 9,974 41% 55% 22,418 23,773 6% OPEX + Selling Exp. (3,666) (3,786) (3,715) 2% (1)% (10,411) (11,003) (6)% Other Incomes 328 429 376 (12)% 15% 951 1,120 18% EBITDA 3,098 3,706 6,635 79% 114% 12,957 13,890 7% Cost of Finance (471) (537) (710) (32)% (51)% (890) (1,789) (101)% FX Gain/(Loss) 181 52 90 73% (50)% 543 677 25% Impairment Gain/(Loss)
- 2
- (100)%
- 238
- Investment Gain/(Loss)
60 117 109 (7)% 82% 82 322 293% Other Expenses (40) (5)
- 100%
100% (66) (9) 86% Income Tax 189 (191) (846) (343)% (548)% (121) (1,445) (1094)% Net Profit 1,307 1,228 3,248 164% 149% 8,027 6,841 (15)% % Change Unit: MB
56,008 58,617 54,895 8,674 10,476 10,503 64,682 69,093 65,398
2,020 2,181 3,759
- 10,000
20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000
3Q16 2Q17 3Q17 L/T Debt S/T Debt Cash
0.79 0.84 0.74
3Q16 2Q17 3Q17
13
Debt Portfolio
Lower debt after most of repayment be done in 9M17
ST Loan 15% LT Loan (USD) 7% LT Loan (THB) 52% Bond (THB) 26%
Debt Structure Debt Profile
Float 77 THB 70 Fixed 23 USD 30 Currency (%) Interest Rate (%)
Net Debt = 61,639 MB
- Ex. Rate = 33.53 Baht/$
Financial Ratios
0.73 0.89 0.85
3Q16 2Q17 3Q17
< 1.0x
Net D/E CA/CL
Unit : MB Net Debt
Maturity of Long-term Debt
Unit : MB MB ST Loan THB 10,503 LT Loan USD 125 4,181 LT Loan THB 35,467 Bond THB 15,247 Total 125 65,398
Debt
Currency
62,662 61,639 66,912
498 2,536 3,732 6,205 22,496
- 3,181
667 333
- 4,999
3,362
- 6,886
498 10,715 7,761 6,539 29,383 4Q17 2018 2019 2020 >2020 THB Bond USD Loan THB Loan Remark: Long-term debt as at 30 Sep 2017
14
Statement of Financial Position & Ratio
Higher profitability Ratios derived from good performance
121,361 128,296 11,169 9,828 37,806 40,637 2,042 3,759 81,005 83,392 2,203 2,296 56,445 54,895 32,725 41,937
Unit: MB
PP&E Other Non-C/A Cash 172,378 Other Current Liabilities L/T Liabilities (incl. due within 1 yr) Shareholders’ Equity
- Sept. 30, 2017
182,520
- Dec. 31, 2016
Assets : Cash 1,717 MB AR 3,160 MB
- Higher sales volume
PP&E 5,593 MB
- Increase mainly from PPE & PPC Projects
Liabilities & Equity AP 5,227 MB
- Higher crude oil inventories
IBD 2,811 MB
- Higher mainly from ST loan of 4,362 MB
- Slightly lower of long-term loan (incl.
current portion of 1,551 MB (drawdown LT loan of 18,000 MB and repaid LT loans & bonds of 18,822 MB) Equity 2,387 MB
- Increase mainly from NI of 6,841 MB
- Decrease from dividend payment of 4,722
MB (Bt 0.23 per share)
Other C/A As of ending
3Q16 2Q17 3Q17 As of ending 3Q16 2Q17 3Q17 EBITDA Margin (%) 6.78 6.79 11.7 Current Ratio (time) 0.73 0.89 0.85 Net Profit Margin (%) 2.86 2.25 5.73 Quick Ratio (time) 0.23 0.31 0.32 Earnings per share (Baht/share) 0.06 0.06 0.16 Return on Equity
(%)
13.79 8.94 11.11 Net Debt to Equity (time) 0.79 0.84 0.74 RATIOS Financial Policy Ratio Profitability Ratios Liquidity Ratios
Other Non-Current Liabilities
3Q17 & 9M17 Highlight Operation & Financial Performance Project Update1
Agenda
Industry Outlook
15
23% 8% 11% 4% 4% 14% 10% 15% 11% 11% 40% 38% 45% 47% 48% 5% 10% 8% 9% 10% 16% 21% 16% 19% 18% 2% 5% 3% 3% 3% 6% 1% 6% 6% 2% 0.8% IRPC IRPC+UHV IRPC 2015A IRPC 2017F IRPC 2018F Ethylene Propylene LPG Naphtha Gasoline Diesel/Jet Fuel Lube Oil Fuel Oil
Designed Yield
0.8%
Project Update: UHV project
IRPC’s Production Yield Upstream project for Hygiene & Value-added Products Objective : Upgrade low value to high valued-added products Investment : $ 1.1 bn COD : Jul. 2016 Benefit : GIM 1.5-2.0 $/ bbl
Assumption : Spread propylene to FO ~ 500-600$/bbl RDCC unit
- Feed Cut-in
@ Jun 16
- COD @ Jul 16
HYVAHL unit
- Feed Cut-in
HS-ATB @ Jul 16
- COD @ Jul 16
Performance Guarantee Test
- RDCC run 100%
@ Oct 2016
Plant Acceptance (PAC) Jan 2017
43% 84% 95%
2016A 2017F 2018F
Upgrade to High Valued-Added products
UHV to raise flexibility and improve product yield and earnings
131 123 163 367 220 326 74
HS-ATB LPG Ethylene
HYVAHL Propylene
Naphtha FO/FG
Middle Distillates
RDCC
C4 Raffinate III
Internal use & Loss
Unit : KTA 16% 5%
23%
9% 9% 26% 12%
Flow Diagram
LS-ATB
UHV
Designed Yield
16
Value added on UHV project
Gasoline Maximization Project UHV Catalyst Cooler in RDCC plant
Objectives
- Flexibility of crude selection
- Fully optimized UHV operation
- Utility cost from cracking heavy crude molecule
CAPEX : ~ 1,320 MB IRR : ~ 35% COD : ~ 1Q19 Benefit : GIM 0.3$/bbl Objectives
- To capture domestic market gasoline deficit
- Increase UHV benefit
- Maximize Gasoline Yield
- Reduce Thailand import
CAPEX : 1,100 MB IRR : ~ 80% COD : by end 2017 Benefit : GIM 0.4$/bbl
Demin
To improve margin with small CAPEX
RDCC Plant ERU PRU Unit PNU Unit Prime G Unit
New column
Gasoline Blending Pool
~ 25 M.Litres/month
C2’s C3’s C4’s Naphtha
Modification Modification
Poly-gasoline (C8’s) 20 t/hr. to gasoline pool Heavy Oligomerate (C12+’s) 5 t/hr. to RDCC HCN (benzene <0.5 volume%) 27 t/h Gasoline pool Benzene rich cut 8 t/h LCN ERU – Ethylene Recovery Unit PRU – Propane-Propylene Splitting Unit PNU – Naphtha Oligomer Unit Prime G – Naphtha Hydro-treating Unit
17
Project Update: PPE & PPC
18
MC : Aug 17 COD : Sep 17
PPC PPE
MC : Sep 17 COD Plan : End Nov 17
PP Expansion Project (PPE)
Licensor : Novolen Capacity : 160 KTA PMC : Foster Wheeler, EPC : Sinopec PP Compound & Specialties (PPC) Licensor : Japan Polypropylene Corp. (JPP) Capacity : 140 KTA PMC : Foster Wheeler , EPC : Sinopec
Operation 37% Supply Chain 19% Commercial 27% Procurement 3% Corporate 14% 2017 Target 7,003 MB
Efficiency Improvement from Everest Project
To reach $300 mn benefits from Everest with CAPEX ≤10% on benefit : Key Driver to reach Top Quartile
19
Height 29,029 ft.
Basecamp (17,500’) Camp l (19,500’) Camp ll (21,000’) Camp lll (23,500’) Camp lV (26,300’)
2020
2016 2017 2018 2019
ROIC 14%
1st Quartile ROIC in Petroleum & Petrochemical Industry
Stron
- ng
g Perf Perform
- rmanc
ance
Hea ealthy y Organiza nization tion (OHI) I)
+
ROIC 8%
Getting to the top and staying there
2,560 177 281
7,003 Total Y2017 (Target)
1,348 716
9M17 Actual
1,091 778 277 165
2,311 Y2016 Actual
1,771 682 214 122
4,414
166 1,458
Procurement Area Commercial Area Operations Area Corporate Area : Non HR
$
Integrated Supply Chain Corporate Area : HR
$100m $200m $300m
- Optimize crude selection
- Adjusting production unit
parameter
- Maximize energy efficiency
- Reduce loss in production
- Improve maintenance
efficiency
- Reduce production unit
downtime
- Budget management
- Develop human capabilities
- Reduce cost thru
E-Procurement
- Maximize commercial value;
go to the new market
19
1,921
20
Everest Project Highlight : 3Q17 & 9M17 Performance
Procurement Area Commercial Area Operations Area Corporate Area - Non HR
- Maximize energy efficiency and reduce loss in production units
- Improve efficiency and effectiveness of maintenance
- Reduce production unit downtime and minimize operating days lost
- Maximize commercial value generation from refined petroleum and
petrochemical products
- Asset Port and Tank management
- Optimize timing, duration and cost of turnaround
- Spend optimization with key expenditure categories
- Optimize small CAPEX spend for highest value expenditures
- Budget management
- Optimize planning and policies to ensure continued productivity
enhancement 2,560 1,921 177 281
1,771 682 214 122
7,003 4,414 Total
Y2017 (Target) 9M17 Actual
Unit: MB of EBIT
$
Integrated Supply Chain
- Optimize crude selection, product blending and hydrocarbon stock
- Enhance throughput & yield by adjusting production unit parameter
Corporate Area - HR
- Develop capabilities to sustain both performance and health
- Improve organizational health practices for top quartile outcomes
1,348 716
166 1,459
Key Area
930 287 115 42
2,059
3Q17 Actual
43 642
200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F
Sales Plan
IRPC A & L Company Limited
Marketing ABS and ABS Color Compound Products for the automotive industry, electronics, and office equipment
Shareholding Structure
- IRPC ….……………… 60%
- Nippon A&L(NAL) …. 37%
- Sumithai ……………. 3%
Joint Venture
IRPC Polyol Company Limited
Production and marketing for Polyurethane Products
Shareholding Structure
- IRPC ….…………………………………… 75%
- PCC Rokita SA (Poland) ………………. 25%
Sales Plan
- 5,000
10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F
High-value product Standard product
IRPC Clean Power Company Limited
To produce electricity and steam for EGAT’s SPP contract and UHV project The Company was incorporated on June 20, 2013
Shareholding Structure
- GPSC Plc….………… 51%
- IRPC ……..…………. 49%
CAPEX : ~13,500 MB IRR : ~11%
Net Profit Plan
MB Total
- Electricity : 240 MW
- Steam : 300 T/h
Phase 1 COD: Nov 2015
- Electricity : 45 MW
- Steam : 170 T/h
Phase 2 COD: Nov 2017 Capacity
Enter into new geographic markets and gain new technological knowledge
Ton Ton 21
Construction period
Phase I Phase I & II
3Q17 & 9M17 Highlight Operation & Financial Performance Project Update
Agenda
Industry Outlook
22
Crude Oil Supply & Outlook
Target Production reached target Production did not reach target
Non-OPEC reach compliance since Aug. 2017
23 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Norddeutsche Landesbank Market Risk Advisory Wells Fargo BMI Reserch Deutsche Bank Bank of Nova Scotia $53-57 $54-57 $56-65
Source: Bloomberg
Note: Report Sept. - early
- Nov. 2017
$/bbl Brent
Crude Oil Price Forecast
World oil production and consumption balance
Leaded by Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Angola
Tight Supply from OPEC and non-OPEC producers to extend supply cut and the steady reduction of excess U.S supply
OPEC reach its target of production cut by 1.13 MBD (97%)
OPEC : 97% compliance in Sept. 2017
Dubai price Base Case $52-57
+ High potential of OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers to extend supply cut extension beyond March 2018 + Amid expectation of falling global oil inventories from growing oil demand prospects has also supported prices
- Gasoline cracks remain structurally strong amid significant risk
from higher supply after refineries increase run rates during winter demand
- Middle distillate cracks continue to be under downwards pressure
due to surplus from China and India amid weaker demand in Industry sector
- Diesel cracks were boosted by pre-stocking demand ahead of
winter
Short-Term Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Outlook
Driving Determinants
24
Key Products Price (3Q17) Spread 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 Refinery ($/bbl) ($/bbl) Outlook Outlook Dubai 50.5 ULG95 66.6 16.1 GAS OIL 0.05%S 64.4 13.9 FO 49.1 (1.4) Lube Base Oil ($/T) ($/T) Outlook Outlook 500 SN 840 528 150 BS 891 579
+ Demand pick up after rainy season
- Ample supply in China as local refineries increase capacities
- Slow demand before Chinese new year but to rebound after it
ended
- Weak demand from winter in North East Asia
- Slow demand before Chinese new year
+ Fuel oil cracks stay strong as global supply reduced especially from FSU + Winter demand support FO price
Short-Term Petrochemical Products Outlook
25
Key Products Price (3Q17) Spread (3Q17) 4Q17 1Q18 Olefins ($/T) ($/T) Outlook Outlook Ethylene 1,090 622 Propylene 791 323 HDPE 1,291 823 PP 1,147 679 Styrenics ($/T) ($/T) Outlook Outlook PS 1,445 977 ABS 1,845 1,377 Driving Determinants
Styrenics to be soften in 4Q17 but stronger in 1Q18
- Soften demand before year end as producers tends to lean
their inventories + Producers to increase their stock again after year end PE: Additional capacity from North American with cost advantaged feedstock from shale gas is potentially delayed PP: + China market remains active
- Additional China supply of 950 KTA (Zhongtian Hechuang and
Shenhua) will be delayed, 1Q18 at the earliest + ASEAN, Indonesia and Vietnam, still short of supply
Olefins market be affirmed + Less export from SEA + Tighten market during 4Q17, schedule turnaround in Asia
Capacity Before After Propylene (UHV) 412 KTA 732 KTA
2010 2014
Margin Improvement
- Operational Excellence
- Commercial Excellence
- Procurement & HR
Excellence
Benefit +135 MUSD
INDIVIDUAL OWNERSHIP SYNERGY PERFORMANCE EXCELLENCE INNOVATION RESPONSIBILITY FOR SOCIETY INTEGRITY & ETHICS TRUST & RESPECT
Other Projects Completion
- Operational Efficiency
Improvement
- Asset Utilization Enhancement
- Product and Service Improvement
- Capacity and Products Expansion
Incremental Margin and Organization Health
- Capability Building
- Owner mindset & Performance
Orientation
- Cultural Changes
Fully Integrated PP
E4E Everest forever
IRPC Strategic Roadmap to 2020
BIG
Revenue Growth of 5% EBITDA Growth of 10% 1st Quartile ROIC in Petroleum and Petrochemical Industry
STRONG LONG
Member of DJSI Emerging Markets Universe
Capacity
Before After PP (PPE&PPC) 475 KTA 775 KTA
2017
2016
26
Beyond Everest
Power of Growth Power of People Power of Digital
Capture benefits and growth after investment to reach 1st Quartile ROIC
26
- CHP I:
- Electricity +220MW
- Steam +420T/hr
- PRP +100KTA of Propylene
- TDAE +28KTA, 150BS +25KTA
- Lube Blending +60m.Litres./year
- EBSM +60KTA, ABS/SAN +60KTA
IRPC Key Highlight
27
Project improvement to add initiated value Cost saving program always be implemented: Everest Forever Corporate Improving program: IRPC 4.0, New DNA Commitment to Shareholders: 43%-67% payout ratio Dividend policy: 25% payout ratio Record fully benefit starting from 2018
- After completion of huge CAPEX: UHV and PPE & PPC
- After planned major turnaround in 1Q17 (every 5 years)
High value Product: Specialty Petrochemical Portfolio Strong market share and strategic target in PP & PP specialty market Corporate Governance : DJSI bronze class level 1/3 private company receiving National Anti-Corruption Commission Integrity Awards
CG CG & &
TR TRANSPAR NSPARENCY ENCY
STR STRON ONGE GER CA CASH SH FLOW FLOW SH SHAR ARE HO HOLDE LDERS RS IN INDU DUSTR STRY UP UPTRE TREND ND
Strong support from PP outlook Sole producer ABS in Thailand: ABS limited capacity addition
KEEP KEEP IMP IMPROVING ROVING
Thank You
Investor Relations Contact: ir@irpc.co.th
- Tel. 02-765-7380, Fax. 02-765-7379
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