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Feb 12, 2024 176 likes •502 views

Moving to low carbon transport in Ireland Prof Brian Caulfield Centre for Transport Research, Dept of Civil Structural and Environmental Engineering Presentation Overview Problem setting What would a low carbon transport future look

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Moving to low carbon transport in Ireland

Prof Brian Caulfield Centre for Transport Research, Dept of Civil Structural and Environmental Engineering

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Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin

Presentation Overview

Problem setting
What would a low carbon transport future look like
Examples of emission reductions
Barriers to change
International examples
The role of the State

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Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin

Problem setting

The number of cars in Ireland is predicted to increase from approx. 2 million in 2016 to over 3 million in 2050. The demand for transport is increasing as our economy recovers. Congestion levels are rising again in our towns and cities. The data just presented by the National Transport Authority demonstrates the significance of the problems we face.

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Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin

Problem setting (2)

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Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin

Problem setting (3)

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Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin

Problem setting (4)

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Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin

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Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin

Problem setting (6)

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Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin

Transport – a space problem

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Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin

Transport – a space problem

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Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin

Transport – aviation emissions

We cannot ignore the aviation sector A return flight from Dublin to London = 280kg of CO2 This is similar to driving 1,400 km in a petrol car These emissions need to be factored into transport solutions

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Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin

Reducing transport emissions

Typically, there are two solutions suggested achieve a low carbon transport network. 1. Change how we fuel our transport: electrification of our vehicles, improving vehicle technologies and the use of bio- fuels. 2. Reduce our reliance on private vehicles: shifts towards public transport, shared car usage, walking and cycling.

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Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin

What would a low carbon transport model look like

It is difficult to predict what our transport future will look like but the following will be at the centre of our plans for the future:

Public transport will take up a greater role moving the majority
f people in our urban areas
Walking and cycling will become more prominent – taking up a

large share of short trips

Trips that take place using private vehicles would be done with

low emission vehicles

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Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin

What are the wider economic benefits

Investment in transport has a number of wider economic benefits:

Health benefits
Social inclusion
Reductions in transport poverty
Access to new opportunities (education and employment)
More time for other activities

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Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin

What about the future?

Many of the examples given today so far relate to “traditional” transport modes. I want to discuss three possible scenarios that are currently being examined in transportation science: 1. Changing car ownership models 2. Autonomous and connected vehicles 3. Mobility as a service (MaaS)

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Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin

Changing car ownership models

How we own cars in the future will look very different from today. As already stated private car ownership is very wasteful. Fewer learner permits being taken up - in 2008, 52,000 17-20 year

lds took up learner permits compared to 35,000 in 2016.

The shared economy has come up with new ideas in this field. Netflix for cars: The BOOK Scheme by Cadillac

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Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin

Autonomous and Connected Vehicles

Much attention in the media and in research is now focused upon autonomous and connected vehicles. These vehicles may be able to reduce congestion and emissions.

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Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin

Mobility as a Service (MaaS)

Mobility as a Service (MaaS) is a good example of how the shared economy works in the transport sector. MaaS is an account based system. Users pay for all of their mobility usage based on the number of trips used - this would include bus, rail, taxi etc

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Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin

So how do we reduce emissions?

We have to reduce emissions in the transport sector. Against a backdrop of increased demand and increased emissions, this is increasingly difficult. None of the options on the table are easy or cheap!

Public transport: will result in emissions reductions if modal

shift is from private cars to public transport. Our experience with the Luas showed a shift from bus to Luas.

Re-fuel public transport: changing our fuels on public

transport to bio-fuels and electrification will result in lower emissions.

Promotion of cycling and walking: This modal shift will result

in reductions in emissions and result in health benefits.

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So how do we reduce emissions?

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Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin

So how do we reduce emissions?

Electric Vehicles: the electrification of private vehicles will

result in a decrease in emissions. However, the extent of the challenge needs to be appreciated.

In 2016, 140,000 new private cars were sold. Only 392 were
electric. The overall private car fleet in 2016 was approximately

2 million.

The cost of promoting this solution is high given the very slow

uptake in electric vehicles in Ireland. Will a natural increase in the electric vehicle market occur? So is the cost investment worth it?

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Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin

So how do we reduce emissions?

580k EV’s 346k EV’s 231k EV’s

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Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin

Barriers to change

The main barriers to reducing emissions in this sector:

The high cost and long planning time for public transport
Reducing car usage
Spatial configuration of our country
Acceptance of electric vehicles

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Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin

International examples – Public Transport

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Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin

International examples – Behaviour Change

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Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin

International examples – Spatial Configuration

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Electric Vehicle Acceptance

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Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin

The role of the State

1. Funding the construction of Public Transport 2. The evaluation of transport projects needs to change 3. Electric vehicle funding: fund purchasing cars or charging infrastructure 4. Pilot schemes 5. Supporting behavioural change schemes

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Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin

To conclude

No easy solutions – big decisions need to be made Planning into the future means embracing how technology can ease the transition to low carbon transport We need to fully appreciate how transport and land use planning are linked and how our spatial structure is a large barrier The prudence of investing in electric vehicles needs to be fully explored

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Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin

To conclude

All of the solutions discussed will make our country

Greener, Healthier, Cleaner, Connected and Efficient.

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Thank You

Email: brian.caulfield@tcd.ie