Investment in PPPs: Gold Digging in Partially Cleared Minefields - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Investment in PPPs: Gold Digging in Partially Cleared Minefields Stephen O. Ogunlana School of Civil Engineering Asian Institute of Technology Bangkok, Thailand

The Plot

Introduction The Gold Rush Mines, Mines, Mines Stakeholder Benefits Opportunities Dangers Mining Your Gold Safely

PPPs as part of our living

Privatization is now the way of doing

things

– Since Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan – Until a new development philosophy is developed

The Gold Rush

“One morning in January —it was a clear,

cold morning; I shall never forget that morning—as I was taking my usual walk along the race after shutting off the water, my eye was caught with the glimpse of something shining in the bottom of the ditch. There was about a foot of water running then. I reached my hand down and picked it up; it made my heart thump, for I was certain it was gold.”

.....James W. Marshall

The Rush Began

Rush is on

Legacy

Mines, Mines, Mines

Facts and figures about mines

Landmines have been used in both internal and

international conflicts around the world. They are cheap and records are often not kept of where they are laid, making them difficult to locate once the fighting has stopped.

As a result, landmines continue to have tragic

effects many years after the military conflict has ended.

Landmines continue to kill or maim thousands

• f victims each year - almost half of them

children.

Facts and Figures

Farmers and workers are frequently disabled,

losing limbs and consequently their livelihoods

The economic impact of landmines is

significant as they can render vast areas of formerly productive land unusable

There are an estimated 60 to 70 million

landmines in the ground in at least 70 countries in Africa, Asia, Europe, the Middle East and the Americas

Facts and Figures

Landmines remain active for an average of 50

years

An average of 2000 people are killed or injured

by landmines each month

It costs between $3 and $30 to produce a

landmine

Whereas the cost of neutralising a landmine is

between $300 to $1000

The average cost for surgical care and

prosthetics is $4000 per amputee

1 out of every 236 people in Cambodia is an

amputee as a result of landmine injuries.

The Effect of Mines

Effects 2

Stakeholder Benefits

The Thailand Survey

The Old

Bangkok Transit System (BTS)

The new Life Style The new Life Style

A Study on Stakeholder Satisfaction A Study on Stakeholder Satisfaction with the Bangkok Mass Transit System (BTS) with the Bangkok Mass Transit System (BTS)

• W. Tangkitsiri and S.O. Ogunlana

School of Civil Engineering, AIT, Thailand

The summary of the BTS Users and the The summary of the BTS Users and the BTS and TTD Officers BTS and TTD Officers’ ’ Satisfaction Satisfaction

Satisfaction Factors BTS Users BTS and TTD Officers Overall Satisfaction on the Service Factors Satisfied Satisfied Overall Satisfaction on the Safety Factors Satisfied Satisfied Overall Satisfaction on Operation Factors Satisfied Satisfied Being able to lift up your life (Physical and Psychological Health) Satisfied Satisfied Having a role to solve traffic problem in the city satisfied Average Saving cost of traveling Dissatisfied Average Saving time of traveling Satisfied Satisfied

The Summary of the Non The Summary of the Non-

• Users and the

Users and the BTS and TTD Officers BTS and TTD Officers’ ’ Satisfaction Satisfaction

Factors Shop Van Bus Motor cycle Motor Tri- cycle Taxi Car Owne rs Police BTS and TTD Officers

Overall point of view on BTS skytrain Satis- fied Satis- fied Satis- fied Satis- fied Aver- age Aver- age Satis- fied Satis- fied Satis- fied Overall traffic on roads after having BTS Aver- age Satis- fied Dis- Satisf

• ied

Satis- fied Aver- age Aver- age Satis- fied Satis- fied Aver- age

Opportunities?

Asia Africa Rest of the Developing World

Africa?

Lagos, Nigeria Large Population Poor Infrastructure New destination for

investment

Japanese report

higher profits from Africa (Economist)

Yes, AFRICA

Prime Minister Tony Blair’s Vision NEPAD Initiative Good Reports

Southeast Asia

Thailand

– Thaksin Phenomenon – Infrastructure Plans – Trillions of Baht? – US$40-60 Bil. in 5 years

The Southern Link

Sectors

Transportation

– Roads? – Trains

Energy Water Supply Waste Disposal/Waste to Energy Education

Investment Support Agencies

United States --- Overseas Private

Investment Corporation (OPIC)

Japan Export Trade Organization (JETRO) The Norwegian Guarantee Institute for

Export Credits (GIEK)

China – Ministry of Commerce Italy – Servizi Assicurativi del Commercio

Estero (SACE)

Investment Support Agencies (2)

Italy – SIMEST China Export and Credit Insurance

Corporation (Sinosure)

Finland – FINIPRO UBIFRANCE India – Export Credit Guarantee

Corporation

PrivatizationLink

Multi-Lateral Investment Guarantee Agency

A member of the World Bank Group,

created in 1988 to promote foreign direct investment into emerging economies

The Agency contributes to development by

• ffering political risk insurance (guarantees)

to investors and lenders, and by helping developing countries attract and retain private investment.

MIGA Memberships

MIGA membership, currently 157 countries,

is open to all World Bank members. The Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency has a capital stock of SDR1 billion. In March 1999, MIGA's Council of Governors adopted a resolution for a capital increase of approximately $850 million. The Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency received another $150 million in operating capital from the World Bank.

MIGA's strengths

MIGA both supports and draws on the

extensive resources of the World Bank Group

Acts as an umbrella of deterrence against

government actions that could disrupt investments, and allows it to influence the resolution of potential disputes.

Enhances investor confidence that an

investment going into an emerging economy will be protected against non-commercial risks.

Latest Works

China: MIGA issued a guarantee of $70 million to

Compagnie Générale des Eaux of France for its $245 million equity investment in Shanghai Pudong–Veolia Water Corporation, Ltd. of China

Vietnam: MIGA issued a guarantee of $15 million

Crédit Lyonnais, S.A. of France for its swap agreements related to the financing of Phu My 3 BOT Power Company Ltd. (PM3) of Vietnam

Afghanistan: MIGA collaborated with the World

Bank in defining and implementing a program of support to the government of Afghanistan

Signposting

The dangers

Dangers

Countries without stable political

systems

Countries without legal backing for

PPPs

Countries where the economy is not

well managed

Countries with archaic laws and

regulations

Dangers 2

Countries with poor transparency

records

Governments with unreasonable

expectations

Projects that glitter but are without

gold

Mining Your Gold Safely

Avoid: Countries that do not make

the grade

Be careful: Analyse risks, don’t

focus on the positives only

Avail: Use whatever guarantees are

available

Beware of mines