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Investigating the Use of Bayesian Networks in the Hora Approach for Component-based Online Failure Prediction Teerat Pitakrat, Andr van Hoorn University of Stuttgart Institute of Software Technology (ISTE) Reliable Software Systems (RSS)

  1. Investigating the Use of Bayesian Networks in the Hora Approach for Component-based Online Failure Prediction Teerat Pitakrat, André van Hoorn University of Stuttgart Institute of Software Technology (ISTE) Reliable Software Systems (RSS) Group Stuttgart, Germany Nov 27, 2014 @ SOSP 2014, Stuttgart T. Pitakrat, A. van Hoorn Investigating the Use of Bayesian Networks in Hora for C-B OFP Nov. 27, 2014 @ SOSP 2014 1 / 29

  2. Service Failure Motivation: Failure Management T. Pitakrat, A. van Hoorn Investigating the Use of Bayesian Networks in Hora for C-B OFP Nov. 27, 2014 @ SOSP 2014 2 / 29

  3. Service Failure Motivation: Failure Management T. Pitakrat, A. van Hoorn Investigating the Use of Bayesian Networks in Hora for C-B OFP Nov. 27, 2014 @ SOSP 2014 2 / 29

  4. Service Failure Motivation: Failure Management T. Pitakrat, A. van Hoorn Investigating the Use of Bayesian Networks in Hora for C-B OFP Nov. 27, 2014 @ SOSP 2014 2 / 29

  5. Service Failure Motivation: Failure Management “A service failure , often abbreviated here to failure , is an event that occurs when the delivered service deviates from correct service.” — Avizienis et al. [2004] T. Pitakrat, A. van Hoorn Investigating the Use of Bayesian Networks in Hora for C-B OFP Nov. 27, 2014 @ SOSP 2014 3 / 29

  6. Reactive vs. Proactive Failure Mgmt. Motivation: Failure Management 100% QoS 0% Reactive Failure Failure detected Start recovery System recovered T. Pitakrat, A. van Hoorn Investigating the Use of Bayesian Networks in Hora for C-B OFP Nov. 27, 2014 @ SOSP 2014 4 / 29

  7. Reactive vs. Proactive Failure Mgmt. Motivation: Failure Management 100% QoS 0% Reactive Failure Failure detected Start recovery System recovered 100% QoS Proactive 0% Failure predicted Prepare recovery Failure System recovered T. Pitakrat, A. van Hoorn Investigating the Use of Bayesian Networks in Hora for C-B OFP Nov. 27, 2014 @ SOSP 2014 4 / 29

  8. Agenda Motivation: Failure Management 1 [Recap] Hora: Online Failure Prediction for CB Systems 2 Hora: Framework and Implementation 3 Evaluation 4 Conclusion 5 T. Pitakrat, A. van Hoorn Investigating the Use of Bayesian Networks in Hora for C-B OFP Nov. 27, 2014 @ SOSP 2014 5 / 29

  9. Related Approaches vs. Hora Approach [Recap] Hora: Online Failure Prediction for CB Systems Amin et al. [2012], Liang et al. [2007] T. Pitakrat, A. van Hoorn Investigating the Use of Bayesian Networks in Hora for C-B OFP Nov. 27, 2014 @ SOSP 2014 6 / 29

  10. Related Approaches vs. Hora Approach [Recap] Hora: Online Failure Prediction for CB Systems Bielefeld [2012] T. Pitakrat, A. van Hoorn Investigating the Use of Bayesian Networks in Hora for C-B OFP Nov. 27, 2014 @ SOSP 2014 6 / 29

  11. Related Approaches vs. Hora Approach [Recap] Hora: Online Failure Prediction for CB Systems Pitakrat [2013], Pitakrat et al. [2014b] T. Pitakrat, A. van Hoorn Investigating the Use of Bayesian Networks in Hora for C-B OFP Nov. 27, 2014 @ SOSP 2014 6 / 29

  12. Related Approaches vs. Hora Approach [Recap] Hora: Online Failure Prediction for CB Systems Component-level Prediction Models + System-level Prediction Model Component Dependency Pitakrat [2013], Pitakrat et al. [2014b] T. Pitakrat, A. van Hoorn Investigating the Use of Bayesian Networks in Hora for C-B OFP Nov. 27, 2014 @ SOSP 2014 6 / 29

  13. Hora: Component-level Prediction Models [Recap] Hora: Online Failure Prediction for CB Systems T. Pitakrat, A. van Hoorn Investigating the Use of Bayesian Networks in Hora for C-B OFP Nov. 27, 2014 @ SOSP 2014 7 / 29

  14. Hora: Component-level Prediction Models [Recap] Hora: Online Failure Prediction for CB Systems x x x x x x x x x T. Pitakrat, A. van Hoorn Investigating the Use of Bayesian Networks in Hora for C-B OFP Nov. 27, 2014 @ SOSP 2014 7 / 29

  15. Hora: Framework Architecture [Recap] Hora: Online Failure Prediction for CB Systems PCM SLAstic ... Component-level Predictors HDD Failure Predictor CDT System-level Predictor PAD Monitoring ! Reader ! Event Log Analyzer Hora Kieker, Weka, R, ESPER, ... Becker et al. [2009], Bielefeld [2012], Pitakrat et al. [2013; 2014a], van Hoorn [2014] T. Pitakrat, A. van Hoorn Investigating the Use of Bayesian Networks in Hora for C-B OFP Nov. 27, 2014 @ SOSP 2014 8 / 29

  16. Hora: Framework Architecture [Recap] Hora: Online Failure Prediction for CB Systems PCM SLAstic ... Component-level Predictors HDD Failure Predictor CDT System-level Predictor PAD Monitoring ! Reader ! Event Log Analyzer Hora Kieker, Weka, R, ESPER, ... Questions: 1 What is a suitable model for System-level Prediction Model (SPM)? 2 How to transform architectural models to CDT and to SPM? 3 How does Hora improve online failure prediction? Becker et al. [2009], Bielefeld [2012], Pitakrat et al. [2013; 2014a], van Hoorn [2014] T. Pitakrat, A. van Hoorn Investigating the Use of Bayesian Networks in Hora for C-B OFP Nov. 27, 2014 @ SOSP 2014 8 / 29

  17. Agenda Hora: Framework and Implementation Motivation: Failure Management 1 [Recap] Hora: Online Failure Prediction for CB Systems 2 Hora: Framework and Implementation 3 Evaluation 4 Conclusion 5 T. Pitakrat, A. van Hoorn Investigating the Use of Bayesian Networks in Hora for C-B OFP Nov. 27, 2014 @ SOSP 2014 9 / 29

  18. Hora: Framework Architecture Hora: Framework and Implementation PCM SLAstic ... Component-level Predictors HDD Failure Predictor CDT System-level Predictor PAD Monitoring ! Reader ! Event Log Analyzer Hora Kieker, Weka, R, ESPER, ... Questions: 1 What is a suitable model for System-level Prediction Model (SPM)? 2 How to transform architectural models to CDT and to SPM? 3 How does Hora improve online failure prediction? T. Pitakrat, A. van Hoorn Investigating the Use of Bayesian Networks in Hora for C-B OFP Nov. 27, 2014 @ SOSP 2014 10 / 29

  19. System-level Prediction Model Hora: Framework and Implementation Bayesian network: probabilistic graphical model Bayesian network library used in Hora: https://github.com/kutschkem/Jayes T. Pitakrat, A. van Hoorn Investigating the Use of Bayesian Networks in Hora for C-B OFP Nov. 27, 2014 @ SOSP 2014 11 / 29

  20. System-level Prediction Model Hora: Framework and Implementation Bayesian network: probabilistic graphical model Rain T F Rain 0.2 0.8 Sprinkler Rain T F Sprinkler Grass wet T 0.01 0.99 Sprinkler Rain T F F 0.4 0.6 T T 0.99 0.01 T F 0.9 0.1 Grass F T 0.8 0.2 F F 0.0 1.0 Bayesian network library used in Hora: https://github.com/kutschkem/Jayes T. Pitakrat, A. van Hoorn Investigating the Use of Bayesian Networks in Hora for C-B OFP Nov. 27, 2014 @ SOSP 2014 11 / 29

  21. System-level Prediction Model Hora: Framework and Implementation Bayesian network: probabilistic graphical model 0.2 0.8 0.01 0.99 0.4 0.6 0.99 0.01 0.9 0.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.0 Bayesian network library used in Hora: https://github.com/kutschkem/Jayes T. Pitakrat, A. van Hoorn Investigating the Use of Bayesian Networks in Hora for C-B OFP Nov. 27, 2014 @ SOSP 2014 11 / 29

  22. Hora: Framework Architecture Hora: Framework and Implementation PCM SLAstic ... Component-level Predictors HDD Failure Predictor CDT System-level Predictor PAD Monitoring ! Reader ! Event Log Analyzer Hora Kieker, Weka, R, ESPER, ... Questions: 1 What is a suitable model for System-level Prediction Model (SPM)? 2 How to transform architectural models to CDT and to SPM? 3 How does Hora improve online failure prediction? T. Pitakrat, A. van Hoorn Investigating the Use of Bayesian Networks in Hora for C-B OFP Nov. 27, 2014 @ SOSP 2014 12 / 29

  23. Component Dependency Table Component Dependencies Hora: Framework and Implementation T. Pitakrat, A. van Hoorn Investigating the Use of Bayesian Networks in Hora for C-B OFP Nov. 27, 2014 @ SOSP 2014 13 / 29

  24. Component Dependency Table Component Dependencies Hora: Framework and Implementation C 1 C 2 C 3 H 1 H 2 C 1 • • • C 2 • • C 3 • H 1 H 2 T. Pitakrat, A. van Hoorn Investigating the Use of Bayesian Networks in Hora for C-B OFP Nov. 27, 2014 @ SOSP 2014 13 / 29

  25. Component Dependency Table Dependency Calling Probability Hora: Framework and Implementation C 1 C 2 C 3 H 1 H 2 C 1 0 . 5 0 . 5 1 . 0 C 2 0 . 5 1 . 0 C 3 1 . 0 H 1 H 2 T. Pitakrat, A. van Hoorn Investigating the Use of Bayesian Networks in Hora for C-B OFP Nov. 27, 2014 @ SOSP 2014 14 / 29

  26. System-level Prediction Model Hora: Framework and Implementation C 1 C 2 C 3 H 1 H 2 C 1 0 . 5 0 . 5 1 . 0 C 2 0 . 5 1 . 0 C 3 1 . 0 H 1 H 2 T. Pitakrat, A. van Hoorn Investigating the Use of Bayesian Networks in Hora for C-B OFP Nov. 27, 2014 @ SOSP 2014 15 / 29

  27. System-level Prediction Model Hora: Framework and Implementation C 1 C 2 C 3 H 1 H 2 C 1 0 . 5 0 . 5 1 . 0 C 2 0 . 5 1 . 0 C 3 1 . 0 H 1 H 2 T. Pitakrat, A. van Hoorn Investigating the Use of Bayesian Networks in Hora for C-B OFP Nov. 27, 2014 @ SOSP 2014 15 / 29

  28. System-level Prediction Model Hora: Framework and Implementation C 1 C 2 C 3 H 1 H 2 C 1 0 . 5 0 . 5 1 . 0 C 2 0 . 5 1 . 0 H 2 C 3 1 . 0 ✓ ✗ H 1 0 . 8 0 . 2 H 2 T. Pitakrat, A. van Hoorn Investigating the Use of Bayesian Networks in Hora for C-B OFP Nov. 27, 2014 @ SOSP 2014 15 / 29

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