Introductions Tell us about your favorite Sci Fi movie Sci Fi Movie - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Victory Starts Here!

1

UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Sci Fi Movie Link https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/future-oe-elective/p/futures

Tell us about your favorite Sci Fi movie Introductions

Victory Starts Here!

Charles Taylor*

Characteristics of potential future leaders

• Innovative, creative, and visionary
• Awareness of barriers
• Ability to adjust or change

Barriers

• Resistance to change

2 *Creating Strategic Visions, US Army War College

Victory Starts Here!

Andy Hines and Peter Bishop*

Strengths

• Know your biases; self-

awareness

• Work in teams
• Embrace ambiguity

Barriers

• Self-delusion/Wishful Thinking
• Group Think

3 *Thinking About the Future; Guidelines for Strategic Foresight

Victory Starts Here!

4

UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED

Mindsets

Here are some of my notes-what can you add to this discussion?

• The View you adopt for yourself can

profoundly impact the way you lead your life, and your accomplishments and how you see your future

• Children are born with insatiable curiosity and

know that human intellectual skills can be

• cultivated. As soon as they are able to

evaluate themselves, they become afraid of not being smart.

• Fixed mindset-qualities carved in stone,

which creates an urgency to prove oneself

• ver and over again. With effort comes risk,

as it might reveal inadequacies.

• Growth mindset–anyone can be anything,

with proper motivation or education. A person’s true potential is unknown, impossible to foresee what one may become with years of passion, toil and training. When encountering errors-the growth mindset is on fire!! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hi iEeMN7vbQ

Victory Starts Here!

5

UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED

Mindsets

• Mindset significantly impacts success (vast difference between growth and fixed

mindset)

• CEO Disease
• When do you feel smart
• Meaning of Failure
• Meaning of Effort
• With effort-you can modify your mindset
• Huge impact on your leadership ability (how you work with your team)
• How you give praise
• How you manage attitude
• Brain Points-reward process/not intelligence
• Greater perseverance/Grit (over time improves ability)
• Yet/Not Yet
• Transform the meaning of effort and difficulty (difficulty just means not yet)
• Huge impact on lives of young students.
• Overcome bias/improve equality

Victory Starts Here!

6

UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED

Nudge

Improving decisions about health, wealth and happiness

My notes: Our understanding of human behavior can be improved by appreciating how people systematically go wrong. Two systems of how we think Intuitive and automatic: rapid and instinctive lizard brain. Reflective and rational: Deliberate and self-conscious process. Heuristics (Rules of Thumb)-they can be helpful but they can also lead to systematic biases Anchoring-starting with what you know and adjust in what you think is the right direction. Anchors serve as nudges. Availability-likelihood of risk is associated with how readily examples come to mind. Accessibility and salience (personal experience) are closely related to availability. This can lead to false assessment of risk. Representativeness (similarity) heuristic-what things look like. One can be fooled by randomness. Seeing patterns where none exist. Optimism and overconfidence-unrealistic optimism can lead to risk taking endeavors. Gains and losses-people do not like to lose. Loss aversion produces inertia, stick with the status quo. Status quo bias-sticking with your current situation.

These are my thoughts-what might you add to the discussion?

Victory Starts Here!

7

UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED

The Art of the Long View

Future Hunters have a much longer time horizon for scenarios

Victory Starts Here!

Definition of Strategic Foresight

Strategic foresight is the ability to create and sustain a variety of high-quality forward views and apply the emerging insights in

• rganizationally useful ways.

8

Victory Starts Here!

Lum: 4 Steps to the Future

Methods or techniques

• Adding structure to how you

think about the future.

– Not comprehensive – Informed by critical thinking

• Not about predictions, divining

the immediate or the hyper- specific

• What the future could be-not

about what it will be.

9

Victory Starts Here!

Lum: 4 Steps to the Future

Fundamental concepts

• The future does not exist-we

are all creating it

• There are many possible

futures.

• The future is in constant flux
• Key point: there is no way

that you will be advised on how to accurately predict a single future on which you should bet the farm

10 Do these fundamental concepts resonate with General Perkin’s ideas about the future?

Victory Starts Here!

Four step process

• Past
• Present
• Futures
• Aspiration

11

Victory Starts Here!

Future Hunters (A797)

12

UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED

• 1. What will the Education system be like for the US in 2050? (Michael)
• 2. What will the US be like in 2050 as a result of climate change? (Michael)
• 3. What will the atmospheric modification be like in 2050 ? (Shane)
• 4. What will be the global thermostat limit for CO2 be in 2050? (Shane)
• 5. What will happen to the US as a result of CO2 in 2050? (Shane)
• 6. What will be the risks for allowing AI to make decisions for us in 2050?

(Donny)

• 7. What will agriculture be like for the US in 2050? (Donny)
• 8. What unforeseen social opportunities will emerge from synthetic biology

in 2050? (Derrek) What is the X of 2050? What will X be like in 2050?

Victory Starts Here!

13

UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED

Super Past

• Risks and likely character of future war long pre-occupied people.
• Variety of agendas, long informed writing on future war
• Role of science fiction throughout examination of the future of war
• Two large themes throughout the literature
• A growing appreciation of the difficulties containing war
• A search for a form of decisive force that might inflict a knockout blow
• Far less thought given to
• Consequences of a first blow that failed to floor the opponent
• How war’s course might be increasingly determined by non-military

factors, including the formation and breaking of alliances, underlying economic and demographic strength or

• The public’s readiness to make sacrifices and tolerate casualties.
• Although technology was presented as the main driver of change in

warfare, its influence was shaped by the political context.

• The reason that the future is difficult to predict is that it depends upon

choices that have yet to be made, including by our governments, in circumstances that remain uncertain.

Victory Starts Here!

Future Hunters Lesson 3

14

UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED

Do you see any emerging drivers of change?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hbqMuvnx5MU

Victory Starts Here!

Future Hunters Lesson 3

15

UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED

What was the World like in 1983?

Victory Starts Here!

History Lessons

– Foresee the social and cultural impact of new inventions – Put hype and skepticism into perspective – Clues about how a technology might evolve in the future – Reminder-humans are responsible for problems that we blame on technology

16

Victory Starts Here!

History Lessons, cont

– A new networking technology revolutionizes long- distance communication, making it cheaper and more convenient than ever before. – Enthusiastically embraced by businesses, causing a speculative boom. Relentlessly hyped by advocates and mocked by detractors – Makes possible new forms of business and new forms of crime – Governments struggle to prevent all use of cryptography, demand access to all messages – People make friends and fall in love on line – New technology will lead to world peace, some say, by erasing borders and unites humanity – Great highway of thought – Both the story of the Internet and the electric telegraph of mid 19th century

17 Taken from Mega Tech: Technology in 2050, pg 11

Victory Starts Here!

History Lessons, cont

“It is a well-known fact that no

• ther section of the population

avail themselves of technology more readily and speedily of the latest triumph of science than the criminal class”

Quote from a Chicago policeman in 1888

18

Victory Starts Here!

Present

• Which of these forces (from the past) are still

at work?

• What factors are most influential, either alone
• r together?
• What new influences have emerged?

19

Victory Starts Here!

Present

Transitory moment between what was and what might be

This is where we take a look at all the signals about change that we think we are presently receiving Three questions to ask – Which of the historical drivers might be at work again? – What new sources of change do you think you are detecting? – What new things might slow or prevent change today?

20 Quote from Henry Ford-if I had asked my customers what they wanted-they would have told me “faster horses”

Victory Starts Here!

The Future is Already Here….

…It’s just not evenly distributed Sometimes change takes long gestation periods If you look in the right places, you can see tomorrow’s technologies today Seek out edge cases, examples of technologies and behaviors adopted by particular groups, or in particular countries before they become widespread Edge cases can come from anywhere

21

Wired Magazine: Japanese Schoolgirl Watch: Ever wonder how cell phones first became popular? It was the way teenage girls in the mid-1990s were using them, just as the generation before them had embraced pagers, "the first viral youth tech.” http://travel.cnn.com/tokyo/shop/whats- behind-power-japanese-schoolgirl-438197/

Victory Starts Here!

22

UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED

The Signals Are Talking

Fringe to Mainstream-seven steps Step 1: I’ve never heard of it and why should I care? Step 2: I’ve heard of it and completely discounted it. Preposterous! Step 3: I understand what it is but it is not beneficial for me. Step 4: It might be potentially useful and I should probably start looking a little more closely. Step 5: I think it might be useful…but it is just a blip on the

• radar. Let’s see if anybody else is biting.

Step 6: I am using this all the time and it is becoming a

• habit. I am looking at ways to work on this with others.

Step 7: It is indispensable. Why didn’t I think of this earlier?

Victory Starts Here!

Futures

• What is logical for the range of alternative

futures?

• What are the opportunities and threats?
• Who are the drivers of change (to include

those that will impede change)?

23

Victory Starts Here!

Futures

• Put together

– Historical drivers (trends) – New sources of change (emerging issues) – Stabilizers (resistance to change)

• To ask one question “what are the possible futures

for X in 2050”

• Must be practical
• Must develop scenarios

24

Victory Starts Here!

Scenarios

• Telling logical stories about

how things might change

• Scenarios help capture

uncertainty and multiplicity that characterizes the future

• Not about getting it “right”
• Many possible futures

25

(NIC) plays a very large role for the US Government in forecasting far future plausible scenarios. Arizona State University Center for Science and the Imagination-cartoons shaping our vision of the world Marine Corps Futures- four plausible scenarios to include

• ne “Preferred

Future”

Victory Starts Here!

Aspirations

• New goals?
• New visions?

26

Victory Starts Here!

Aspirations

• Preferred futures-what are you striving for?
• Different from wishful thinking
• More –the impact we want to have on the future

– Anticipating challenges – Broaden understanding about what is possible and what is at play

• Drawing a picture-to catch glimpses of what is

coming next.

• Imagined futures of Science Fiction-not merely

predictive, but it inspirational

27

Victory Starts Here!

28

UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED

Backup Slides

Victory Starts Here!

29

UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED

Present-Army

• Trends in the OE are converging, fast moving trends (DIME) are

transforming the nature of all aspects of society and human life, including the character of warfare.

• The future of the American military is dependent upon taking a

holistic and heuristic approach to projecting and anticipating trends (transformational and enduring) that will tell us clues about the future.

• Technology will impact how we live, create, think and prosper
• Future of Warfare out to 2050 is divided into two discrete periods
• 2017-2035: The era of accelerated human progress.

Adversaries exploit technologies to challenge US Military across multiple domains

• 2035-2050: The Era of contested equality: Significant

breakthroughs in technology lead to significant changes in the character of warfare.

Victory Starts Here!

30

UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED

NATO Strategic Foresight Analysis Report 2017

Major Trends

• Political: fundamental changes in the international

security environment that have created strategic shocks, resulting in increasing instability.

• Human Social trends-asymmetric demographic

changes, rapid urbanization and increasingly polarized societies.

• Technology-continues to shape cultural, social and

economic fabrics of our societies at all levels.

• Globalization has opened markets and intensified

economic integration, while increasing the influence

• f developing countries and straining natural

resources.

• Environment: Environmental issues are dominated

by climate change and its far-reaching and cross- cutting impacts.

Victory Starts Here!

31

UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED

National Intelligence Council Global Trends Report

Three scenarios- Islands-Restructuring the global economy, long periods of slow to no growth Orbits-growing public expectations, diminished capacity of national governments Communities-enormity of the future economic and governance challenges test the capacity of national governments to cope- creating opportunities for local/alternative governance Each scenario identifies decision points that might lead to a brighter or darker future

Victory Starts Here!

32

UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED

Shell Oil

The Process of Scenarios: Navigating and Uncertain Future. We must make decisions that will impact our future yet the way our brain works, we are often trapped in our own experiences. Scenarios help us to stretch our thinking-“alternative memories of the future”. Imagining the future with different perspectives. Thinking Big First start with trends that are beyond our ability to control Next look at their impact on our behavior. Model very specific scenarios, subset of circumstances. Share the results with a broader audience, collaborate with multi-disciplinary

• teams. Shell products are publicly available.

Over the long term, scenarios are very beneficial in that they bring new insights into the life, hearts and minds of key decision-makers.

Victory Starts Here!

33

UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED

Shell Oil

The Process of Scenarios: https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the- energy-future/scenarios/what-are-scenarios.html

Victory Starts Here!

Recap Lessons 4 and 5

34

UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED

• 2. Scan the horizon widely (looking for black swans)

Victory Starts Here!

Recap Lessons 4 and 5

35

UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED

• 3. Determine probabilities

Victory Starts Here!

Recap Lessons 4 and 5

36

UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED

• 4. Consider impact

Victory Starts Here!

Recap Lessons 4 and 5

37

UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED

• 5. Consider uncertainty

Victory Starts Here!

Recap Lessons 4 and 5

38

UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED

Make an assessment (answer your question)

Victory Starts Here!

39

UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED

Your Strategic Leader Here

• “Culture Eats Strategy for Breakfast”: Future Hunters must enable the

culture change of their organization (team effort).

• Failure results from

Inability to envision the changing operational environment Caustic culture: fiefdoms, dishonest, denial, non-critical thinkers

• Strategic Leaders

Tell the truth Offer hope Create a clear vision-answers the “why” Alignment of operations with the vision Provides a framework for cultural transformation through transparency One team, simple message, take measures to prevent the

• rganization from sliding into complacency.
• Innovator’s dilemma: When doing the right thing (focusing on current

customers) is the wrong thing (for the future health of the

• rganization).

Victory Starts Here!

TRADOC G-2 Video on APAN

https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc- g2/future-oe-elective/p/futures

40

Victory Starts Here!

The Operational Environment and the Changing Character of Future Warfare

41

What are some of the key ideas about the future operational environment ? How do these ideas resonate with yours?

Victory Starts Here!

The Operational Environment and the Changing Character of Future Warfare

42

What are your thoughts

• n these trends?

Victory Starts Here!

The Era of Accelerated Human Progress

43

The Era of Accelerated Human Progress, 2017- 2035, which relates to a period where our adversaries can take advantage of new technologies, new doctrine and revised strategic concepts to effectively challenge U.S. military forces across multiple domains.

Victory Starts Here!

The Era of Contested Equality

44

The Era of Contested Equality, 2035-2050, which period is marked by significant breakthroughs in technology and convergences in terms of capabilities, which lead to significant changes in the character of warfare. During this period, traditional aspects of warfare undergo dramatic, almost revolutionary changes which at the end of this timeframe may even challenge the very nature of warfare itself.

Victory Starts Here!

OE Future Trends

45

Victory Starts Here!

TRADOC G-2 Resources

• Strategic Foresight APAN website:

https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc- g2/future-oe-elective/p/futures

46

Victory Starts Here!

Goals/Outcomes

When you walk out of this class, you should be able to

• Define strategic foresight key points-what it is

and what it is not

• Define an approach to strategic foresight (steps

taken in your approach)

• Use your approach to creating future scenarios

for your professional environment

• Articulate the Army TRADOC G-2 vision and know

how to access these resources

47

Victory Starts Here!

Charles Taylor on Leadership

Strategic Studies Institute

• Decision makers need to achieve success for the future

while dealing with the immediate

• Effective leadership means bringing the future into

focus

• “the absence or ineffectiveness of leadership implies

the absence of a vision, a dreamless society, and this will result, at best, in the maintenance of the status quo, or, at worst, the disintegration of our society because of a lack of purpose and cohesion”.

• Assuming that this creativity can be taught, learned

and practiced by military leaders.

48

Victory Starts Here!

Charles Taylor

Objectives

• To develop an awareness of internal ad external

hindrance or barriers to creating visions of the future.

• To recognize the need for developing and sharing

corporate strategic visions of the future and to instill a desire to create personal visions; and,

• To offer a means or processes that each

executive can use throughout his or her career for creating strategic visions of the future

• Relationship to long range planning, futures

49

Victory Starts Here!

Charles Taylor

Methods or techniques

• Think in terms of probability of more than one

strategic vision

• Multiple or alternative visions of what the

future might look like.

• The cone of plausibility

50

Victory Starts Here!

Futures-Why?

Why?

• Taught at the Army War College-extensive

program

• Necessary component of Leadership
• Everything they teach at AWC-you need to

know now.

• This is your introduction to thinking about the

future, to get you started on your way

51

Victory Starts Here!

Types of Change

• Continuity-things stay the

same

• Incremental change-small

slow changes

• Disruptive change-Black

Swans

52 Low probability Unforseen High Impact

Victory Starts Here!

Emerging Issues

– In contrast to trends – Suggestions for what might be important factors or issues – Identifying emerging issues

• New technologies
• Potential policy issues
• New ideas or concepts

– STEEP framework (social, technological, economic, environmental and political)

53

Victory Starts Here!

A Small Note on Trends

Trends are a measure of historical change over time. They are not the future, they aren’t even statements about the future. They are critically important building blocks for foresight, they describe change that has been happening Need to be clear about what the trend is and the direction

• f the trend

54

Victory Starts Here!

Lum

Everyday practices

• Exposure to lots of stuff
• Break out of bounds and try new things
• Think visually (paint a picture)
• Keep asking questions..”why” in particular
• Prompt others to think-create a sense of

community

55

Victory Starts Here!

Lum

Ground rules

• Forget prediction
• Use numbers appropriately-hard data is best

for the past

• Collect lots of information
• Be ruthless about possible futures
• Diversity of thought
• Do this all the time-a little work, constantly

56