Introduction to Qualitative Frameworks and the August Meeting 2 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Introduction to Qualitative Frameworks and the August Meeting

2 August 2019 Jo L. Husbands U.S. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine

Approaches to Assessing S&T

• Many types of approaches to assessing potential risks

and benefits of advances in S&T

• From formal, quantitative models through statistical

approaches to qualitative tools

• All the approaches potentially relevant to the BWC
• Our efforts focused on one approach – qualitative

frameworks – that can be used to structure systematic discussions among experts

• Sometimes hear the term “expert elicitation”
• One feature of our approach – a group process

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What is a Framework?

• A mental model
• A way to think about a problem
• A list of decision criteria
• A representation of expert thinking on an issue

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How a Framework Can Be Useful

• Helps structure discussions in systematic way
• Helps standardize terminology to make sure everyone

is talking about the same thing

• Helps clarify assumptions, open questions, and areas
• f agreement or disagreement
• Provides a mechanism to incorporate technical experts

in the assessment

• Can engage experts from various fields and from different

sectors

• Facilitates identification of bottlenecks and barriers &

supports efforts to monitor advances that change what is possible

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Using the Framework

• Provides a basis for assessing potential

concerns with advances in S&T on a number of levels

• Enables analysis of potential risks
• In a particular field (e.g., synthetic biology)
• Of a new method or tool (e.g., CRISPR-Cas9)
• Of a particular line of research (e.g., gain of

function)

• Of a specific experiment (e.g., enhancing virulence
• f a pathogen)

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Experts Meeting - 1 August

• 30 participants from 17 countries

and 3 international organizations

• Tested application of two

frameworks developed to assess potential concerns arising from S&T advances

• US NASEM (2018) “Biodefense in the

Age of Synthetic Biology”

• Tucker (2012) “Innovation, Dual Use

and Security”

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Case Examples

Applied the frameworks to two case examples

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• Change in transmissibility of an

emerging viral pathogen

• Engineering and controlling

commensal bacteria for targeted “live” therapeutics

Workshop Process

• Used the frameworks to discuss the dimensions

that feed into assessing concerns and potential strategies to address or mitigate concerns

• Discussed how well each one worked / similarities

and differences / how they would need to be adapted to aid in assessing BWC-relevant concerns

• Discussed how we might develop a comparable

framework to assess potential benefits of advances in S&T

• An experiment, an attempt to discover how such

frameworks might be used and adapted for the BWC context

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Thank You!

References:

• National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine, Biodefense in

the Age of Synthetic Biology. Washington, DC: National Academies Press Washington, DC: National Academies Press (2018). Available as a free pdf at https://www.nap.edu/catalog/24890/biodefense-in-the-age-of- synthetic-biology.

• Jonathan B. Tucker (ed.), Innovation, Dual Use, and Security: Managing

the Risks of Emerging Biological and Chemical Technologies. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press (2012).

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