What ERA-EnvHealth Network wanted - A better understanding of how - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

A risk assessment of the impact

• f climate change on human

health & well-being, including potential impact upon animals

• Prof. Matthew Baylis1, Dr. K. Marie McIntyre1,
• Dr. Cyril Caminade2, Dr. Andy Morse2

1 Liverpool University Climate & Infectious Diseases of

Animals (LUCINDA) research group, School of Veterinary Science, University of Liverpool

2 Department of Geography, University of Liverpool

ENHanCE project (ERA NET Health & Climate in Europe)

What ERA-EnvHealth Network wanted -

A better understanding of how global warming climatic scenarios for west European regions will translate over the next few decades into: (i) direct impacts on soil-water ecosystems

(ii) the indirect effects this will have on human health

(iii) potential for adaptation or mitigation with respect to land use and water resources Three sub-themes -  Anthropogenic contaminants, pathogens, toxins in soil-water  Health impact estimation of global warming  Methodological improvements for understanding and modelling health impacts as a result of changes in soil-water ecosystems

ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages

ENHanCE project – ERA NET Health & Climate in Europe

ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages

 Will most diseases respond to climate change or just a few?  Will there be a net increase or decrease in certain disease burdens?

Will most diseases respond to climate change or just a few?

 Is it possible that the diseases ‘that matter most’ are the least likely

to respond to climate change?

 How realistic is the threat to human health from climate change’s

future effects on infectious diseases?

WP 1. Identification of pathogens Who’s included in western Europe?

ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages

Our framework

What are their known climate drivers? Literature search How will climate change? Regional climate projections How might they respond to climate change? Risk assessment What might we try to do about it? Participatory Integrated Assessment

WHAT MIGHT REALLY HAPPEN? Integrated Assessment Scenarios

Which matter most? Decision Support Tool What pathogens affect or threaten us? ENHanCEd EID Pathogen Database

ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages

• WP1. Identification of all pathogens of

humans and animals that occur in western Europe and have known climatic

• r environmental drivers
• WP2. A Decision Support System for

identifying short-listed pathogens of highest impact on human health and well-being

• WP3. Projected climate and

environmental change in the region

• WP4. Risk assessment and modelling of the response of high

impact diseases to future climate change

• WP6. Integrated Assessment Scenarios of our future health and

well-being in Europe

• WP7. Project Communication
• WP8. Project Management
• WP5. Expert opinion of the societal response to changing

disease risk from climate and environmental change: Participatory Integrated Assessment

Work package structure

ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages

The bottom-up approach

Start by giving equal weight to all pathogens, then look for climate drivers

Balanced approach; the highest-impact pathogens may be largely insensitive to climate change

a a b c d e f g h i k j k l m n

• Most previous assessments have been top-down, starting

(and often ending) with the premise that a few key vector- borne pathogens of (usually) humans (malaria, dengue, yellow fever) need urgent consideration

ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages

(Photo: Nicolai

• V. Meyling)

(Photo: Nicolai

• V. Meyling)

(Photo: Nicolai

• V. Meyling)

ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages

• WP1. Identification of all pathogens of humans and animals

division no_entities Bacteria 122824 Environmental samples 23000 Invertebrates 114239 Mammals 3804 Phages 1745 Plants 162556 Primates 663 Rodents 2617 Synthetic 4505 Unassigned 21 Vertebrates 37795 Viruses 44714 518483 ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages

Removing: Env. Samples, Phages, Plants, Synthetic, Unassigned = 326656 entities

ftp GUI GUI NCBI 1st backend ENHanCEd EID 2nd backend ENHanCEd EID ENHanCEd EID

(removal of plants, phages etc) (ID potentially pathogenic entities)

518483 entities Pathogenic, potentially pathogenic, non-pathogenic, free-living or commensal = ?? entities

ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages

ENHanCEd Emerging Infectious Diseases (EID) database

 Sql Server 2005  ASP.NET 2.0, 3.5  Virtual Earth  Confluence  Telerik, yFiles  Matlab Web-based multi-user Environment (web application)

ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages

Items Pathogens Mechanical Vectors Environments Polygon Points Exit Material Entry Routes Time Intervals References Links Comments Taxonomy Trees Hosts

 How pathogens are transmitted  When and where host, vector, pathogen & climate interactions occur  Critical (min, max) boundaries & optimum climate values  Attach ‘evidence’ and rate items  Enable sophisticated and efficient queries  Creator  Updater  Update/Creation Data/Time  Rating

Climate Variables

ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages

‘Squares’

ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages

ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages

WP2: Decision support system for short-listing pathogens

WP2: Decision support system for short-listing pathogens

Importance in terms of human health impact, animal health and welfare, and economic impact across the target region Humans - for instance number of people affected, Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) Animals - for instance economic cost, welfare production losses, costs of prevention Stakeholders Defra, HPA and/or DoH, NHS, NFU, NERC, Veterinary Medicines Directorate, MOD FAO, WHO, OIE

ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages

Linking climate and EID data

Temperature Maximum summer temperature Minimum summer temperature Mean summer temperature Maximum winter temperature Minimum winter temperature Mean winter temperature Days of temperature under 0oC Days of temperature over 30oC Mean annual temperature Annual temperature variation Day-degrees Humidity Minimum relative humidity Rainfall Total summer rainfall Total winter rainfall Total annual rainfall Summer rainy days Winter rainy days

• Seq. days no rain
• Seq. days rain

Wind speed Maximum wind speed Mean wind speed Seasonality Known seasonality Plots of seasonal patterns

ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages

ENHanCE - Background, Project Structure, ENHanCEd EID, Decision Support Tool, Climatic Linkages

Pathogen survival outside host Pathogen rate of development outside host Pathogen development rate in host Vector biting rate Vector survival rate

• Prof. Matthew Baylis
• Dr. Jenny Newman
• Mrs. Susan Baker
• Dr. Andy Morse
• Dr. Cyril Caminade
• Prof. Malcolm Bennett
• Dr. Helen Clough
• Dr. Christian Setzkorn

Department of Geography

• Prof. Pim Martens
• Dr. Maud Huynens
• Ms. Su-Mia Akin
• Dr. Serge Morand
• Ms. Agnes Waret
• Dr. John R. Stephenson
• Dr. Steve Leach
• Mr. Jolyon Medlock
• Dr. Peter Stevenson
• Prof. Ed Maltby
• Mr. Tom West

Acknowledgements