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Introduction to Integrated Environment Assessment Models Presentation by P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad APEIS Capacity Building Workshop on Integrated Environment Assessment in the Asia-Pacific Region October 24-26,

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IIM Ahmedabad

Introduction to Integrated Environment Assessment Models

Presentation by P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad

APEIS Capacity Building Workshop on Integrated Environment Assessment in the Asia-Pacific Region October 24-26, 2002, Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi

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  • Why Integrated Environment Assessment?
  • What is Integrated Environment Assessment?

Example: Integrated Assessment of Climate Change

  • What are Integrated Assessment Models and Component

Models?

Example: Integrated Assessment Models for Climate Change Policy Analysis

  • What kind of results and insights do Integrated Assessment

provide?

Example: Results and Insights from Integrated Assessment of Climate Change

  • Why and what kind of capacity building for Integrated

Assessment in developing countries?

Presentation Agenda

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Why Integrated Environment Assessment?

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Multiple Interfaces of Environment Assessment

Policymaking Process Integrated Assessment Models and Frameworks

Ecology Policy sciences Hydraulics Meteorology Climatology Geophysics Atmospheric Chemistry Economics Biology Geochemistry Knowledge disciplines

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  • Diverse Scientific Disciplines
  • Diverse socio-economic scenarios
  • Macro and micro-economies
  • Local and regional boundaries
  • Short and long time horizons
  • Local and global environmental concerns
  • Rural and urban perspectives
  • Regional emissions and impact assessment
  • Probability and Decision under uncertainty
  • Technology

What to Integrate?

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Why Integrated Assessment?

  • To assemble, summarise, organise, interpret and reconcile

pieces of existing knowledge

  • To add value through integration (but not to add knowledge)
  • To develop full range of policy outcomes
  • To enhance Communication between scientific disciplines and

policy formulation

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Why Integrated Assessment Models?

  • Framework for conducting research ensuring consistency

pointing to areas where more information is required

  • IAMs are good ‘forecasting’ and ‘heuristic’ tools
  • Communications tools between different sciences and

between science and policy

  • Insights from investigations in the domains of the sub-

components

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What is Integrated Environment Assessment?

Example Integrated Assessment

  • f Climate Change
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Climate Issues

Understanding “Climate” versus “Climate Change”

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Integrated Climate Change Dimensions

Atmospheric Composition Climate & Sea Level Human Activities Ecosystems

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Integrated Framework for Climate Change

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What are Integrated Assessment Models?

Example Integrated Assessment Models for Climate Change Policy Analysis

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AIM Model System

Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy

AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact

A set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model A reduced-form model to project future socio- economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries

Future economic trend Future environmental trend

India Thailand Korea Japan China

AIM/Trend

Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies

AIM/Material

A environment- economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules

AIM/Energy/Technology/Country

A bottom-up technology selection model of energy use and emissions at country and local level

AIM/Bottom-up

A bottom-up technology & land use model for Asia-Pacific region

AIM/Top-down

A general-equilibrium- type world economic model

AIM Family

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Strategic Database

Outputs Outputs Outputs Outputs Outputs

Innovational Wor k Syste m Common Database

Monitoring & Processing Data from IEM AI M-Trend AI M-Energy AI M-Top-down AI M-Material AI M-Ecosystem Policy making Statistics

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Atmospheric Composition MAGICC Climate & Sea Level SCENGEN Human Activities ERB-AGLU Ecosystems AGLU & MERGE

MiniCAM An Integrated Modelling Framework

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MiniCAM COMPONENTS

ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION CLIMATE & SEA LEVEL HUMAN ACTIVITIES ECOSYSTEMS MAGICC Atmospheric Chemistry MAGICC Ocean Carbon Cycle MAGICC Climate MAGICC--Ocean · temperature · sea level ERB Energy System ERB Other Human Systems ALU Ag., L'stock & Forestry (none) Coastal System MAGICC Terrestrial Carbon Cyc. ALU Crops & Forestry Un-managed Eco-system & Animals ALU Hydrology

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What are Component Models?

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1995 2005 2015 2025 2032 BGD NPL MMR VNM PAK IDN TJK IND LKA KGZ CHN PHL THA IRN PRK UZB MYS JPN NZL AUS TKM TWN KAZ KOR SGP 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

CO2 per capita [t-C/cap/yr] Year Country

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

AFRICA+MIDDLE EAST LATIN AMERICA

ASIA PACIFIC

NORTH AMERICA EUROPE+FORMER USSR

10 20 30 40 50 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

AFRICA+MIDDLE EAST LATIN AMERICA

ASIA PACIFIC

NORTH AMERICA EUROPE+FORMER USSR

10 20 30 40 50

GDP growth

1995 2005 2015 2025 2032 BGD NPL MMR VNM PAK IDN TJK IND LKA KGZ CHN PHL THA IRN PRK UZB MYS JPN NZL AUS TKM TWN KAZ KOR SGP 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

CO2 per capita [t-C/cap/yr] Year Country

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

AFRICA+MIDDLE EAST LATIN AMERICA

ASIA PACIFIC

NORTH AMERICA EUROPE+FORMER USSR

10 20 30 40 50 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

AFRICA+MIDDLE EAST LATIN AMERICA

ASIA PACIFIC

NORTH AMERICA EUROPE+FORMER USSR

10 20 30 40 50

GDP growth

Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact A set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model A reduced-form model to project future socio- economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries Future economic trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China AIM/Trend Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies AIM/Material A environment- economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules Emission Intensity of SO2 in China AIM/Energy/Technology/Country A bottom-up technology selection model of energy use and emissions at country and local level AIM/Bottom-up A simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region AIM/Top-down A general-equilibrium- type world economic model

AIM Family AIM Family

Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact A set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model A reduced-form model to project future socio- economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries Future economic trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China AIM/Trend A reduced-form model to project future socio- economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries Future economic trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China Future economic trend Future economic trend Future environmental trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China AIM/Trend Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies AIM/Material A environment- economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies AIM/Material A environment- economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules Emission Intensity of SO2 in China Emission Intensity of SO2 in China AIM/Energy/Technology/Country A bottom-up technology selection model of energy use and emissions at country and local level AIM/Bottom-up A simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region AIM/Bottom-up A simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region AIM/Bottom-up A simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region AIM/Top-down A general-equilibrium- type world economic model AIM/Top-down A general-equilibrium- type world economic model AIM/Top-down A general-equilibrium- type world economic model

AIM Family AIM Family

GDP and CO2 Emissions: AIM/Trend Model

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SO2 Emission AIM/Emission Model

2000 2030

< 0.01 0.01-0.017 0.017-0.026 0.026-0.035 0.035-0.044 0.044-0.053 0.053-0.060 > 0.060 Million Tons

< 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.15 < 0.20 0.11 Million Tons < 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.15 < 0.20 0.11 Million Tons

Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact A set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model A reduced-form model to project future socio- economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries Future economic trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China AIM/Trend Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies AIM/Material A environment- economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules Emission Intensity of SO2 in China AIM/Energy/Technology/Country A bottom-up technology selection model of energy use and emissions at country and local level AIM/Bottom-up A simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region AIM/Top-down A general-equilibrium- type world economic model

AIM Family AIM Family

Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact A set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model A reduced-form model to project future socio- economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries Future economic trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China AIM/Trend A reduced-form model to project future socio- economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries Future economic trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China Future economic trend Future economic trend Future environmental trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China AIM/Trend Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies AIM/Material A environment- economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies AIM/Material A environment- economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules Emission Intensity of SO2 in China Emission Intensity of SO2 in China AIM/Energy/Technology/Country A bottom-up technology selection model of energy use and emissions at country and local level AIM/Bottom-up A simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region AIM/Bottom-up A simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region AIM/Bottom-up A simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region AIM/Top-down A general-equilibrium- type world economic model AIM/Top-down A general-equilibrium- type world economic model AIM/Top-down A general-equilibrium- type world economic model

AIM Family AIM Family

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Water Consumption: AIM/Ecosystem Model

Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact A set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model A reduced-form model to project future socio- economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries Future economic trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China AIM/Trend Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies AIM/Material A environment- economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules Emission Intensity of SO2 in China AIM/Energy/Technology/Country A bottom-up technology selection model of energy use and emissions at country and local level AIM/Bottom-up A simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region AIM/Top-down A general-equilibrium- type world economic model

AIM Family AIM Family

Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact A set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model A reduced-form model to project future socio- economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries Future economic trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China AIM/Trend A reduced-form model to project future socio- economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries Future economic trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China Future economic trend Future economic trend Future environmental trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China AIM/Trend Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies AIM/Material A environment- economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies AIM/Material A environment- economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules Emission Intensity of SO2 in China Emission Intensity of SO2 in China AIM/Energy/Technology/Country A bottom-up technology selection model of energy use and emissions at country and local level AIM/Bottom-up A simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region AIM/Bottom-up A simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region AIM/Bottom-up A simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region AIM/Top-down A general-equilibrium- type world economic model AIM/Top-down A general-equilibrium- type world economic model AIM/Top-down A general-equilibrium- type world economic model

AIM Family AIM Family

1 9 9 5 B a s e lin e 2 0 3 2 F o rtre s s W o rld 2 0 3 2 P o lic y R e fo rm

W A TE R C O N S U M P TIO N 0 .0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .0 0 0 0 2 0 0 .0 0 0 0 3 0 0 .0 0 0 0 4 0 0 .0 0 0 0 5 0 0 .0 0 0 0 6 0 0 .0 0 0 0 7 0 0 .0 0 0 0 1 9 9 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 4 0 YEA R CONSUMPTION(km^3/year) M F F W P R G T

1 4 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 5 0 0 0

m 3/h a/year

C h a n g e o f w a te r c o n s u m p tio n fro m 1 9 9 5 to 2 0 3 2 (D o m e s tic + A g ric u ltu re + In d u s try) 1 9 9 5 B a s e lin e 2 0 3 2 F o rtre s s W o rld 2 0 3 2 P o lic y R e fo rm

W A TE R C O N S U M P TIO N 0 .0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .0 0 0 0 2 0 0 .0 0 0 0 3 0 0 .0 0 0 0 4 0 0 .0 0 0 0 5 0 0 .0 0 0 0 6 0 0 .0 0 0 0 7 0 0 .0 0 0 0 1 9 9 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 4 0 YEA R CONSUMPTION(km^3/year) M F F W P R G T

1 4 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 5 0 0 0

m 3/h a/year

C h a n g e o f w a te r c o n s u m p tio n fro m 1 9 9 5 to 2 0 3 2 (D o m e s tic + A g ric u ltu re + In d u s try)

2030 Market Force

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26 region – 36 sector Computable General Equilibrium Model

(AIM/Top-down)

World level Bottom-up technology & land use Model

(AIM/Bottom-up)

Bottom-up technology & land use Model

(AIM/Bottom-up)

Bottom-up technology & land use Model

(AIM/Bottom-up)

・・・ Country level

AIM/Top-down & AIM/Bottom-up Model

Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact A set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model A reduced-form model to project future socio- economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries Future economic trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China AIM/Trend Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies AIM/Material A environment- economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules Emission Intensity of SO2 in China AIM/Energy/Technology/Country A bottom-up technology selection model of energy use and emissions at country and local level AIM/Bottom-up A simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region AIM/Top-down A general-equilibrium- type world economic model

AIM Family AIM Family

Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact A set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model A reduced-form model to project future socio- economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries Future economic trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China AIM/Trend A reduced-form model to project future socio- economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries Future economic trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China Future economic trend Future economic trend Future environmental trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China AIM/Trend Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies AIM/Material A environment- economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies AIM/Material A environment- economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules Emission Intensity of SO2 in China Emission Intensity of SO2 in China AIM/Energy/Technology/Country A bottom-up technology selection model of energy use and emissions at country and local level AIM/Bottom-up A simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region AIM/Bottom-up A simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region AIM/Bottom-up A simple technology selection model for Asia-Pacific region AIM/Top-down A general-equilibrium- type world economic model AIM/Top-down A general-equilibrium- type world economic model AIM/Top-down A general-equilibrium- type world economic model

AIM Family AIM Family

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Insights from Integrated Climate Change Assessment

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Emissions and Concentrations

  • 2

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1990 2015 2040 2065 2090 2115 2140 2165 2190 2215 2240 2265 2290 PgC/yr WRE 750 WRE 650 WRE 550 WRE 450 WRE 350 IS92a 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 1990 2015 2040 2065 2090 2115 2140 2165 2190 2215 2240 2265 2290 ppmv WRE 750 WRE 650 WRE 550 WRE 450 WRE 350 IS92a

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Energy Consumption Carbon Emissions

200 400 600 800 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Year Carbon (MT)

10 20 30 40 50 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Year Exa Joules Coal Oil Gas Hydro Nuclear Renewables Biomass

Energy and Carbon Emissions for India: AIMENDUSE Model

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GHG versus Local Emissions in India

Carbon Emissions SO2 Emissions

200 400 600 800 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Year Carbon (MT)

Year Million Tonnes 1 2 3 4 5 6 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

7

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Global Carbon Mitigation Scenarios

(2000 - 2100)

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Carbon (Million Ton)

550ppmv 650ppmv 750ppmv Base Case

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Technology, Energy & Climate: MINICAM

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

Millions of Tonnes of Carbon per year

soil carbon sequestration sequestration from fossil power generation sequestration from synfuels production sequestration from H2 production end-use technology improvements nuclear solar biomass 550 ppmv emissions

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Indian Energy System Transformation Under 550 ppmv Stabilization

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 Exajoules Oil Gas Coal Biomass Hydro Solar Nuclear

5 1 1 5 2 2 5

1 9 9 2 5 2 2 2 3 5 2 5 2 6 5 2 8 2 9 5

C a rb

  • n

C ap tu re E n erg y E fficie n c y W in d S

  • lar

B io m a ss H y d ro N u c le a r G as O il In d ia 5 5 p p m v e m issio n

Base Case Energy System Energy Changes: 550 ppmv Case 550 ppmv

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Technological Change in India to Stabilize CO2 at 550 ppmv

500 1000 1500 2000 2500

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Carbon Capture Energy Efficiency Wind Solar Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil India 550 ppmv emission

550 PPMV

Non-Fossil Energy Contribution to GHG Mitigation 40 80 1200 2000 1600

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Regional Energy Market Development

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Impact of Regional Energy Market Developments in South-Asia

Carbon SOX 0.0 1.5 3.0 4.5 6.0 7.5 9.0 10.5 Reduction (%) Year

Emissions Reduction (2015)

Grid Integration Grid Integration + Regional Co-operation

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Why and What kind of Capacity Building for Integrated Environment Assessment in Developing Countries?

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Integrated Environment Assessment: Developing Country Problems

  • Assessment and modeling capabilities
  • Inadequate database
  • Structural changes in the economy
  • Myriad and conflicting developmental concerns
  • Weak regional and international linkages
  • Lack of sustained funding
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Limitations of Present Approaches

  • Limited capability to characterize and parameterize long term

interactions between the economy, society, and environment

  • Assumptions derived from developed world perspective
  • Inability to characterize discontinuities and extreme events
  • Weak behavioral interfaces
  • Distance between analysts and policy makers
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Capacity Building Needs for Developing Countries

  • Inventorize existing best competence, data and experiences
  • Networking and cooperation with regional and global teams
  • Promote integrated assessment modeling under developing

country expert leadership in cooperation with global experts

  • Sustained funding
  • Institutionalize integrated assessment activities