Introduction Some Comments on the Challenges Ahead 22 August 2019 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Introduction Some Comments on the Challenges Ahead 22 August 2019 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Introduction Some Comments on the Challenges Ahead 22 August 2019 The Workshop on LNG Demand Development & Security in Asia Jakarta, Indonesia Lucian Pugliaresi Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. Washington, DC eprinc.org 1 WHY


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Introduction Some Comments on the Challenges Ahead

22 August 2019 The Workshop on LNG Demand Development & Security in Asia Jakarta, Indonesia

Lucian Pugliaresi Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. Washington, DC

eprinc.org

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The Indo-Pacific is the single most consequential region for America’s future

Nine of the world’s 10 busiest seaports are in the region, and 60 percent of global maritime trade transits through Asia. The Indo-Pacific contributes two-thirds of global growth in gross domestic product (GDP) and accounts for 60 percent of global GDP. This region includes the world’s largest economies – the United States, China, and Japan – and six of the world’s fastest growing economies – India, Cambodia, Laos, Burma, Nepal, and the Philippines. A quarter of U.S. exports go to the Indo-Pacific, and exports to China and India have more than doubled over the past decade. This is made possible by free and open trade routes through the air, sea, land, space, and cyber commons that form the current global system.

WHY THIS IS AN IMPORTANT PROJECT……………………………………………………………..

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US Government LNG Initiatives Gaining Momentum……………..

Ø Asia Edge Initiative Underway (State Dept, USAID, DOC, DOE, EX-IM, OPIC, & Treasury for Asian Energy) Ø TDA LNG Infrastructure Initiative Ø US Build Act (Development Finance Corporation goes Live On Oct 1, 2019) – a more balanced partnership possible with JBIC and NEXI Ø White House Executive Orders for Regulatory Reform on Pipeline Approval Process, National Environmental Policy Act Reviews Accelerated and Simplified Ø FERC Accelerates LNG Approval Process, MOU with Pipeline Hazardous Materials Administratio (PHMSA) – Opens Houston Office Ø US DOE Export Approvals Accelerate – No Constraints on Alternative Destinations. Approval of Small Scale LNG exports are fast tracked Ø U.S. Senate (Chairman Murkowski) Introduces Legislation for Strategic Energy Initiative, and do not forget …… Ø Japan US Strategic Energy Partnership (JUSEP)

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Source: EIA, Industry Reports

US Natural Gas Production Continues to Grow…………………………………………..

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67 MMT per year by 2020 >20% 2018 Global LNG Trade

Source: EIA, Industry Reports 5

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Source: OPIS

The Power of the Utica/Marcellus NatGas Remains

(Its Not All About the Permian) Utica/Marcellus

LOWER 48 Production Approaching 90 Bcf/d

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Source: RBN

New Natural Gas Pipelines Providing Diversified Sources and Transportation Routes …………………………

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Understanding Forecast Risks

What the Big Cost-Based Models Tell Us

All models are wrong, but some are useful – More likely to see more fossil fuel demand than replacement by renewable fuel

Source: ExxonMobil

650 Quads

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Source: ExxonMobil

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THANK YOU!!

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SLIDES FOR ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION

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… due to production growth & low prices …

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320 TBD Exports!

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320 TBD Exports!

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320 TBD Exports!

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320 TBD Exports!

This North American production platform provides 25% of world oil production valued at $1 trillion!!!

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Mature Asia-Pacific Gas Markets are stable…

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Key Developing Gas Markets are growing …

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U.S. LNG Is Finding Asian Destinations …

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Asia 2015 2030 China 76.2% 76.9% 2.7% India 20.0% 19.9% 2.6% Philippines 0.9% 0.7% 1.4% Thailand 3.0% 2.6% 1.9%

EPRINC

Asia Coal Natural Gas China 72.7% 2.9% India 68.0% 11.7% Philippines 30.9% 19.9% Thailand 26.2% 63.2%

EPRINC

Primary Energy Demand in Four Select Countries Percentage PowerGen Energy Demand by Resource Primary Energy Demand in Four Select Countries as Perecentage of Total Asia-Pacific Energy Demand Ann.Growth Rate

Large Markets Are Key To Expansion …

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But Headwinds Creating Uncertainty …

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2018 17 2019 3

EPRINC

Number of U.S. LNG Cargoes Shipped To China First Half 2019 vs 2018

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Potential Volumes Filled By US (Optimistic)

Source: Global forecast from Poten & Partners, US Volume from EPRINC 20