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Introduction Scalability Mobile teledensity Competition Conclusions ACORN Conference, Brasilia, May 2010 2 Risks of: Hurricanes, typhoons, etc Vulcanism Tsunami Global warming and sea-level rises Lack of

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 Introduction  Scalability  Mobile teledensity  Competition  Conclusions

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 Risks of: › Hurricanes, typhoons, etc › Vulcanism › Tsunami  Global warming and sea-level rises  Lack of economies of scale  Narrow economies: › Tourism (and construction) › Fruit › Fishing › Financial services › Government

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 Technology  Regulatory interventions  Parliamentary oversight  Ministry  Regulatory authority  Appellate body  Markets

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20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Antigua & Barbuda Aruba Bahamas Bermuda Cayman Islands Martinique Guadeloupe Saint Lucia

St. Vincent & Gren.

Jamaica Trinidad & Tobago U.S. Virgin Islands Dominica Dominican Rep. Grenada Saint Kitts & Nevis

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 Classic options are unconvincing:

› Additional operators › Mobile number portability

 Classical measures are not helpful

› Market shares › HHI

 Need to drill down

› Launch of new services › Comparative costs of baskets

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0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 Lime Digicel

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20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Digicel Lime

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0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 highest on-net highest off-net lowest on-net lowest off-net

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 Very small states and territories  Global regulatory cookbook is not easily

adjusted to fit

› What are the criteria?

 Conventional indicators are misleading  Requires quite detailed analysis

› Surveys › Market analyses › Impact assessments

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Ewan Sutherland sutherla [at] gmail [dot] com www.3wan.net www.ssrn.com/author=927092

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