Into the unknown: evaluating drivers of low- carbon investment in a - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Into the unknown: evaluating drivers of low- carbon investment in a subsidy free world 17 October 2018 Cornwall insight HELPING YOU MAKE SENSE OF THE HELPING YOU MAKE SENSE OF THE www.cornwall-insight.com ENERGY AND WATER SECTORS ENERGY AND
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HELPING YOU MAKE SENSE OF THE ENERGY AND WATER SECTORS HELPING YOU MAKE SENSE OF THE ENERGY AND WATER SECTORS
Cornwall insight
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HELPING YOU MAKE SENSE OF THE ENERGY AND WATER SECTORS HELPING YOU MAKE SENSE OF THE ENERGY AND WATER SECTORS
Gareth Miller
www.cornwall-insight.com
CONSULTING ANALYSIS RESEARCH TRAINING Pre-eminent providers of market, regulatory, and policy research, analysis, training and consulting Independent experts across borders and markets Trusted by customers for
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2005 2010 2012 2016 2017 Company founded:
Cornwall Unrivalled coverage
Intelligence Full service
models
Growing customer base:
Secured investment:
Growth Fund & Opens Irish business
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2014 2015 2016 2017 CPS frozen Biomass conversion RO grandfathering diluted RO bands and Onshore wind and Solar<5MW RO closure CPS freeze extended CfD AR2 excludes solar &
new CfD auctions for less-established
New accounting controls for low carbon “freeze”
No subsidy for onshore wind Solar >5MW RO closure LECs removed
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invest on a subsidy free model
project?
whole life of a project?
treasury interpret it as the former in way cost controls designed
deployment
free actually be delivered?
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Renewable energy investment, UK 2005-18 ($bn) Annual investment lower than anytime this decade with recent spikes driven by “gold-rush” of subsidy closures From hereon likely to be lumpy and driven by commissioning dates of large offshore projects, and lower volumes of subsidy-free
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Source: Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index, EY
Steady investment confidence under a stable regulatory environment – RO, ssFiTs, EMR white paper and prospect of change creating wobbles The repeated incursions against renewable support schemes drives lower investor attractiveness Attractiveness bounces back – thanks to talking up the investment potential in subsidy-free. But is it real!
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Waterfall of capacity 2018-2050
Source: National Grid FES, Two Degrees, Cornwall Insight
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2.7 2.1 0.8 16.1 7.2 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 Capacity in planning
GWs Technology
Fuelled Solar Photovoltaics Tidal Barrage and Tidal Stream Wind Offshore Wind Onshore
Current renewables planning pipeline
Source: Renewable Energy Planning Database October 2018
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Roll-off of subsidy for current fleet
Source: Cornwall Insight, 2018
10 20 30 40 50 60
GW
RO Subsidised FIT Subsidised CFD Subsidised CFD Forecast New Subsidy RO Subsidy Ended FIT Subsidy Ended CFD Subsidy Ended Total Subisidies Total Subsidy Ended
Peak subsidy in 2026 Over 45GW of existing without subsidy by 2040
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Projects within their useful 25 year asset life 2002-2039
Source: Cornwall Insight, 2018
10 20 30 40 50 60 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050
GW
Onshore wind Offshore wind Solar PV Nuclear Biomass Hydro EfW ACT Wave and tidal Micro CHP
Over 53GWs of renewable assets may need to be rebuilt/repowered to recover the peak Peak operating capacity within useful asset-life
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Time Topic Speaker 14:10 Wholesale prices: trends, cannibalisation and impacts on project performance Mike Mahoney 14:40 PPA market and investment underwriting in a subsidy free world Ben Hall 15:10 Alternative sources of return – upside and downside Tom Palmer 15:40 Break 16:00 Small is beautiful – workable options for the post FiT world James Brabben 16:25 The case for floor price CfDs Gareth Miller 16:50 Q&A Ben Hall
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HELPING YOU MAKE SENSE OF THE ENERGY AND WATER SECTORS HELPING YOU MAKE SENSE OF THE ENERGY AND WATER SECTORS
www.cornwall-insight.com
HELPING YOU MAKE SENSE OF THE ENERGY AND WATER SECTORS HELPING YOU MAKE SENSE OF THE ENERGY AND WATER SECTORS
Mike Mahoney
www.cornwall-insight.com
“The depressive influence
price at times of high output from intermittent, weather- driven generation such as solar, onshore and offshore wind” Cornwall Insight “The more the wind blows and the sun shines and demand is saturated, the greater decline in prices
Foresight DK “During windy hours…the excess supply of renewable based electricity depresses the power price, this is precisely when renewables generate the most energy, disproportionately earning low prices” Lion Hearth
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50 100 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
SRMC - £/MWh Cumulative nameplate capacity - GW
Emissions Gas Coal Biomass ROC CFD Short Run Marginal Cost
Source: Cornwall Insight
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0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00
£ MWh
Day-ahead auction prices
11-Jun 12-Jun 13-Jun 14-Jun
11-Jun, base £53.55MWh, Wind 12% 12-Jun base £53.33MWh, Wind 11% 13-Jun, base £53.24MWh, Wind 21% 14-Jun, base £47.12MWh, Wind 42%
Source: N2EX, Cornwall Insight
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40.00 45.00 50.00 55.00 60.00 65.00 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Value factor Percentage market share of generation
Value factor of wind power 2018 to date
Day-ahead auction prices for 2018 show strong correlation with wind power production Cannibalisation effect markedly greater with wind above 30% of the mix Short term conditions such as extreme cold weather can create premium for wind power
Source: N2EX Cornwall Insight
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5 10 15 20 25 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% Days Percentage of generation mix
Number of days renewable generation makes up X% demand
2019 2025 2050 Source: Cornwall Insight
2019: Wind power at 20%
2025: Wind power at 33% or more on half of all days 2050: Wind power at 54%
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60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Baseload price capture
Solar
Average P05/95
60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Baseload price capture
Wind
Average P05/95
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10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
£MWh
Forward curves - baseload power
Change Curve 30/03 Curve 28/09
2016
quickened spring 2018
Prices rising steadily
depleted gas stocks
Gas supply issues
prices chasing Asia
merit
Gas demand in Asia
Source: ICE, Cornwall Insight
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10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Apr-18 Apr-20 Apr-22 Apr-24 Apr-26 Apr-28 Apr-30 Apr-32 Apr-34 Apr-36 Apr-38 Apr-40 Apr-42 Apr-44 Apr-46 Apr-48 Apr-50
Carbon pricing (nominal)
€/t EUETS £/t CPS £/t Carbon 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 2/1/18 2/2/18 2/3/18 2/4/18 2/5/18 2/6/18 2/7/18 2/8/18 2/9/18 2/10/18
EU ETS Carbon v Brent Crude price index
Brent Crude EU ETS
Source: Cornwall Insight
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HELPING YOU MAKE SENSE OF THE ENERGY AND WATER SECTORS HELPING YOU MAKE SENSE OF THE ENERGY AND WATER SECTORS
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20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
£MWh
Solar capture prices
Solar (April) Solar (October) 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
£MWh
Wind capture prices
Wind (April) Wind (October)
Source: Cornwall Insight
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Source: Cornwall Insight
Delivery
Balancing Mechanism Intra-day trading Day-ahead Auction Seasonal contracts Capacity Market T-1 Capacity Market T-4 Floor pricing Corporate PPA Forwards Market
Years 5-15 Mid & Long term PPA Short term PPA
Higher risk/shape discounts
Low value floor prices, partial volumes
Steep de-rating expected Lower risk/shape premiums Fixed prices Off-taker competition High value, high risk , low utilisation Third party trading, share of upside
Years 3-5 Year 1 Prompt
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Networks Generation Markets
Networks
to volatility in SIP
north to south flow
growing more scope for export but also imports
Markets
at day-ahead at risk from no- deal Brexit
Supply
nuclear power
gas plat
GB Market
progress
some, significant risk to others
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price in fewer periods and renewables output grows
remaining in situ into 2030s and holding a competitive advantage over subsidy free projects
Volatility is good for some but risky for others
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HELPING YOU MAKE SENSE OF THE ENERGY AND WATER SECTORS HELPING YOU MAKE SENSE OF THE ENERGY AND WATER SECTORS
Ben Hall
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Large & growing renewables market We calculate 23.5GW (~65% of market) is under some form of PPA High liquidity & re-tendering Especially in short-term FiT and Roc deals New entry ~40 PPA providers with capacity, 20
Improved PPA pricing Competition and liquidity driving improved retention for generators. Typically:
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35 45 55 65 75 85 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18 Sep 18
£/MWh
Winter 18 Summer 19 Winter 19 Summer 20 Winter 20 35 45 55 65 75 85 Day- ahead Oct Nov Q418 W18 S19 W19 Ann Oct 18
£/MWh
Last week Two weeks ago Last year
Seasonal power prices (baseload) Power forward curve
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Source: Cornwall Insight
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Previous structures
PPAs
Changing wholesale market: fewer offtakers have been willing to offer hard floors
prices fall below the floor price and then recoups these loses when wholesale prices rise back above it
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Generator Corporate Supplier PPA price agreed Power and certificates Power (and certificates) Potential sleeving fee Potential sleeving fee
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Source: Cornwall Insight
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Generator Corporate Supplier Price guarantee instead of PPA Back to back PPA and supply contract for supplier
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Source: Cornwall Insight
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Today 2020 2030 2040 Long-term commitments
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Corporate/ buyer
Developer/generator
Removal and reduction
Bankability/credit worthy counterparties Lower cost of capital and levelised costs Long term route to market Lack of forward liquidity to provide fixed price long- term certainty Meet/match demand requirements No upfront capital requirements Long-term wholesale price certainty/ hedges against price volatility Internal/public renewables/ low-carbon targets Corporate social responsibility Established project finance markets Government-led targets Success of CPPAs in
US) Experience of developers/utilities is growing
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Source: Cornwall Insight
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Developer/ generator Corporate/ buyer
Creditworthiness of
more important if subsidy free More complex to negotiate and likely to take more time Fairly limited pool
corporates – but increasing CPPA may create 100%
Board appetite for the deal Unlikely to agree to pay more in the short-term for long-term certainty Not core business – Lack
and expertise in closing the contract Security may be required e.g. a direct agreement Contract termination costs Still requires a supplier for top-up, spill and registering of metes for settlement Power offtake not core for corporates Complexity and costs associated Pricing is heavily dependent on forward curve/ forecasts of prices
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Source: Cornwall Insight
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2008 2008-17 2017 2018-19 2020 First CPPA signed
year agreement with Lochhead wind farm
CPPA market breaches 400MW
total PPA market
First subsidy free solar farm
project co- located with batteries
First subsidy free wind farms
wind projects – England (and potentially Scotland)
Further developments?
South Kyle
Hampshire/ Kent
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aluminium producer
market prices and market price development”
wind by 2024-25, but with grid connections provided for by German government and ready- defined sites
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Source: Cornwall Insight
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its most competitive
providing this
projects
contract negotiation is complex/ time consuming
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HELPING YOU MAKE SENSE OF THE ENERGY AND WATER SECTORS HELPING YOU MAKE SENSE OF THE ENERGY AND WATER SECTORS
Tom Palmer
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assets with need to stack and jump between elements if better opportunities exists
with flexibility assets and likely to result in sharing connection / infrastructure / O&M or portfolio management virtually
Wholesale Market Subsidy
Markets in transformation
Capacity Market Balancing Market Wholesale Market Balancing Services Other
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Source: Cornwall Insight
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participate in the Capacity Market
practice means its not possible to participate
currents/ geothermal) and biomass have been able to participate
lead to ‘return to market investment’ renewables
Why not try? Glen Kyllachy Wind Farm
for 2021/22 delivery year 48MW site initially registered as Hydro before finally being rejected
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5 year review into the Capacity Market
involvement identified as a priority
auction (delivery for 2023/24
Historically had low carbon support schemes – CfD, RO, FiT, FiDER Assumed to participate once Renewable Obligation support ended Contribution of solar to Security of Supply? Development costs for projects decreased quicker than expected New Routes to market – Corporate PPA and subsidy free PPAs
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Source: Cornwall Insight
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the Capacity Market are dispatchable and controllable with the exception of Interconnectors
event is not possible, but may still deliver in periods of stress
sites, potentially solar
Review de-ratings for solar and wind How to treat hybrid projects Penalty Regime
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wind and solar
a de-rating of around 17% for wind
and others suggest
East-West facing solar panels
Source: Cornwall Insight
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not be purely a renewable deployment, understanding the need for flexibility to support deployment
revenue volatility
Uncertainty in renewable generation Exposure to system imbalance price Meet end user shape Revenue diversification (cannibalisation) Contracted revenues Capture locational benefits
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regime – limited penalty
to be punitive to renewables
Load (VOLL)
secondary trading market – only 145MW of assets in 2018 delivery year
Penalties All capacity providers holding an agreement must deliver sufficient electricity during a stress event to meet their
The penalty rate (on a MWh basis) is set at 1/24th of a provider’s annual capacity payments and capped at 200%
payments and 100% of its annual capacity payments.
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Estimated de-rating Value £/MWh Onshore Wind 17% £0.35 to £1.32 Solar 5% £0.23 to £0.86
Source: Cornwall Insight
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reform under System Needs and Product Strategy (SNaPS)
by large thermal assets – now storage, reciprocating engines and DSR
arrangements with National Grid in South West Scotland
participate and more competitive with other forms of generation
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System Needs and Products Strategy Inertia Frequency Response Reserve Reactive Black start No Yes, but limited No Yes Maybe Enablers
Limitations
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Source: Cornwall Insight
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markets as lack of certainty
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electricity supply and demand close to real time
E&W; 30MW in South Scotland; and 5-10MW in north Scotland
for wind, but solar has not participated to date
manage regional constraints through system actions rather than energy actions
2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 16,000,000 18,000,000 20,000,000
Total value (£)
Bid Value Offer Value
Value of BM actions by technology
Source: Cornwall Insight
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Replacement Reserve Exchange) will create a platform for the sharing of Replacement Reserves between TSOs via P344
small assets connected to distribution network and demand Side response to provide flexibility
it tough to compete
to reduce their generation
Source: Cornwall Insight
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that are not dispatchable
complex and highly competitive so not clear if subsidy free has much of a role
flexible enough to optimise the assets in different market, but again not straightforward
that improve the ability to bring in debt, although likely to be time limited and minimal
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HELPING YOU MAKE SENSE OF THE ENERGY AND WATER SECTORS HELPING YOU MAKE SENSE OF THE ENERGY AND WATER SECTORS
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HELPING YOU MAKE SENSE OF THE ENERGY AND WATER SECTORS HELPING YOU MAKE SENSE OF THE ENERGY AND WATER SECTORS
James Brabben
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200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
MW
Photovoltaic Wind Anaerobic digestion Hydro Micro CHP
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
100 150 200 250 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 p/kWh Number of installations (Thousands) Photovoltaic Wind Hydro Anaerobic digestion Micro CHP Average Solar Tariff
Lift off “Let’s see how this goes” Manage “We need to control costs” Cap and manage “We need to control costs…. More!”
Annual capacity uptake Installations
Source: Cornwall Insight
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FiT 31 March 2019 closure date announced by BEIS. Removal of generation tariffs and export tariffs to new sites BEIS suggest a guaranteed route to market may be developed… but only if they lower bills An already distressed supply chain could suffer a further slow down Pipeline projects may now be halted or re-assessed until after BEIS announcements Separate call for evidence
carbon generation Other technical adjustments announced including metered exports (above 30kW) being brought into levelisation process
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“Go it alone” a.k.a build merchant
Co-locate
Behind the meter
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Source: Pixie Energy
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The cost and value of on-site solar PV (2018 and 2023)
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2019 2024
thresholds (500kW for community, 250kW solar and 100kW for others)
deployment of load shifting and storage
means no levelisation
End in 2024:
have been implemented
widespread
multi-supplier as mainstream
storage
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“Removing barriers to smart technologies, including storage… enabling smart homes and businesses”
Is further small scale generation a missing link in implementing wider plans?
DSOs Generation/ wholesale Networks/ supply Consumers Peer to peer HH settlement Storage Multi- supply Local services Renewables penetration Flex assets System services
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HELPING YOU MAKE SENSE OF THE ENERGY AND WATER SECTORS HELPING YOU MAKE SENSE OF THE ENERGY AND WATER SECTORS
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HELPING YOU MAKE SENSE OF THE ENERGY AND WATER SECTORS HELPING YOU MAKE SENSE OF THE ENERGY AND WATER SECTORS
Gareth Miller
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Over 9GWs of pent up onshore demand in the planning system awaiting support Need to build/repower 100GWs+ of low carbon capacity to meet 2050 Traditional investment model relies on de-risking volatility to ensure repayment of debt Utility and corporate PPAs unlikely to provide the “scalable” answer
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Even if computer models say LCOE trending lower than projected wholesale prices over lifetime showing positive NPV, policy support still required… At same time wholesale power market volatility is increasing And the direction of captured prices is down, regardless of commodity value Pool of investors capable of pricing volatility/merchant risk is very small and cost
And lenders not interested in just total, but regular repayments – volatility matters Comparisons to baseload wholesale prices misleading – captured prices are real
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Source: Based on BNEF data provided by (OECD, 2016)
Global asset financing of new investment in renewable energy
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Source: Energy Economics Volume 69, January 2018, “The Importance of Project Finance for Renewable Energy Projects”. 341 projects (73%) out of 468 new power projects 2010-2015.
New power projects in Germany 2010-15, financing proportions 73
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Higher returns to equity from raising debt Banks like stable cashflows resulting from stabilisation policies Some utility balance sheets under pressure Allows equity to be invested in multiple projects/recylcing Volume of pipeline in subsidized markets attractive
Technology maturation has reduced risks Banks Equity investors
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Source: Energy Economics Volume 69, January 2018, “The Importance of Project Finance for Renewable Energy Projects”. 341 projects (73%) out of 468 new power projects 2010-2015.
German renewable financing sources by scale German energy financing proportions by revenue stabilisation 75
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Loan capital and interest is repaid bi-annually Project cash- flows also tested bi annually Needs to be both enough projected cash to repay the entire loan, and to comfortably repay fixed installments So banks will lend less, at higher costs, or not at all Hard to pin down where/when this will arise before making a loan Volatility in wholesale prices creates risks of periods in which installments can’t be made
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Committing to long term prices a challenge Less easy/more complex to transact Interested in scale and shape Floors not insulated against change in law Floor prices very low - £10-20/MWh – and wont support debt to make projects viable Ability to fix prices 3-5 years, but not whole term Utility Corporate PPAs And not all PPA providers will offer a floor Buyers need strong credit rating Only 400MWs to date signed up in GB (2% of PPA market)
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Source: Cornwall Insight
below the floor the generator is topped up
Floor protection
are above the floor the generator pays back fully what has been paid out before getting value
“upside”
Rebate to the consumer + Upside
How the “CfD floor” works in principle
20 40 60 80 100 120 01/03/2018 01/03/2018 01/03/2018 01/03/2018 01/03/2018 01/03/2018 01/03/2018 01/03/2018 02/03/2018 02/03/2018 02/03/2018 02/03/2018 02/03/2018 02/03/2018 02/03/2018 02/03/2018 03/03/2018 03/03/2018 03/03/2018 03/03/2018 03/03/2018 03/03/2018 03/03/2018 03/03/2018 04/03/2018
Price (£/MWh) Date
Payback Top-Up N2Ex DaH Floor price
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BEIS could cap floor price bids at levels they deem sufficient to drive viable projects Bidders would bid floor prices into CfD auctions under existing “pay as clear” approach The CfD contract settlement (and levy forecast) would be changed to accommodate “rebate” model
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Lower strike prices
lower floors
instead focus on the level of floor necessary to raise viable debt levels
No subsidy
under long-run wholesale power prices (c£30/Mwh)
means it is “working capital”
low carbon levies
Attracts low cost of capital investors
volatility
like the RO as guaranteed bankable revenue
Delivers scale capacity
subsidy cost means no financial limit to the scale
can be supported
No material changes to CfD structure
BENEFITS
– people just bid floors not two way SPs
changes not extensive
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decisions
allowing growth to be achieved at maximum scale and lowest cost
volatility
consumer – driving the growth in low-cost capacity to meet targets
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HELPING YOU MAKE SENSE OF THE ENERGY AND WATER SECTORS HELPING YOU MAKE SENSE OF THE ENERGY AND WATER SECTORS
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Who Role Contact
Gareth Miller Chief executive 01603 542101 g.miller@cornwall-insight.com Mike Mahoney Head of Wholesale & Modelling 01603 542143 m.Mahoney@cornwall-insight.com Ben Hall Head of New Business 01603 542102 b.hall@cornwall-insight.com Tom Palmer Principal Consultant 01603 542103 t.palmer@cornwall-insight.com James Brabben Head of Training 01603 542141 j.Brabben@cornwall-insight.com
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HELPING YOU MAKE SENSE OF THE ENERGY AND WATER SECTORS HELPING YOU MAKE SENSE OF THE ENERGY AND WATER SECTORS