Integrated Environmental Modeling of Estuarine Systems Peter - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Integrated Environmental Modeling of Estuarine Systems

Peter Goodwin, Jay R. Lund,

Josué Medellín-Azuara,

Christopher Enright, Benjamin Bray

June 7, 2016 International Association of Great Lakes Research Conference University of Guelph, Ontario, Canada

Authors Team

• Robert Argent, Bureau of Metereology Melbourne, AU
• Jiro Ariyama, California Delta Stewardship Council
• John F. Bratton, Limnotech
• Alvar Escriva-Bou, Public Policy Institute of California
• Joseph Lee, Hong Kong University of Science and Tech.
• Steve Lindley, US Geological Survey
• Michael McWilliams, Delta Modeling Associates & AnchorQEA
• Nigel Quinn, Reclamation, L. Berkeley National Laboratory
• Stuart Siegel, Siegel Environmental
• John Wolfe, Limnotech
• Integrated Environmental Management of Estuarine Systems

Symposium Participants

http://integratedmodeling.ucdavis.edu

Estuarine Systems

• About 22% of the cities

in the world are located in estuaries

• Provide ecosystem

services and resources to support human needs and economic development in regions

• Subject to stress from

many sources including

• Changes in streamflows
• Waste and nutrient

management

• Loss of habitat
• Fisheries
• Invasive species

http://marlimillerphoto.com/estuaries.html

Estuary ry Systems are In Inherently Complex

• Physical Processes
• Multiple objectives
• Stakeholders
• Upstream water users
• Water diverters
• Dischargers
• Interests
• Analysis is hard

Complexityexplorer.org Bratton, DePinto, Wolfe (2015)

Models are useful, yet often create interdisciplinary lines

• Models
• Improve understanding individual

processes

• Organize information and

discussions

• In complex systems like estuaries
• Disciplinary lines
• Reinforces fragmentation of

science, management and policy discussions

• An interdisciplinary approach is

needed, no single discipline is sufficient

Lesswrong.com

Symposium on Integrated Environmental Modeling of Estuarine Systems

• Funded by NSF, the California Delta Stewardship

Council and UC Davis Center for Watershed Science

• May 21-23,2015 at UC Davis
• About 160 attendees
• Government agencies, academia, consulting firms,

NGOs

• http://Integratedmodeling.ucdavis.edu

Symposium on Integrated Environmental Modeling of Estuarine Systems: Guid iding Pri rinciples

1. Credibility, legitimacy and relevance 2. Models are never completed, just enhanced, evolved or abandoned 3. Implicit analysis of uncertainty and sensitivity 4. No generic model will address system complexity for every location 5. Common protocols should be encouraged

Integrative Approach Elements

• Data infrastructure
• Data driven models and

data mining

• Open source
• Visualization and

virtualization

• Facilitate communication
• Inform decision makers
• Assist communication of

issues

• Community modeling

Lach (2016)

Some Institutional and Technical Approaches can Help

• Institutional
• Venue for Agencies, consulting firms, academia,

stakeholders

• Institutional support, funding
• Transparency and access to data and information
• Moving from authority and competition to collaboration
• Development of interdisciplinary scientific

understanding

• Modular modeling
• Component based
• Open source
• Data infrastructure
• Visualization and virtualization

Peckham et al. (2013)

Water Resources in California

10 Hanak et al. (2011) Managing California’s Water

11

Problems of California’s Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

• Physical instability
• Land subsidence
• Sea level rise
• Floods
• Earthquakes
• Ecosystem instability
• Habitat alteration
• Invasive species
• Economic instability
• High costs to repair islands
• Worsening water quality for agric. &

urban users

Cali lifornia faces the hig igh-stakes task of f improving the Delta’s ecosystem health

• Multiple stressors are

harming native species

• Scientific uncertainty,

costs of mitigation fuel “combat science”

• Fragmented institutions

impede effective management

• No time to waste for

environment, economy

12

Most Californians use Delta resources and share responsibility for its ecosystem woes

A Delta Modeling Collaboratory

• Physical location
• Minimum staff
• Venue for collaborative work
• Model repository
• Conceptual model development
• Forum for problem solving:
• algorithms,
• data infrastructure,
• web service interface

A Business Case

Attribute Current Practice Proposed Approach Financial costs and financing Project specific Economies of scale for general capability and staff for specific project, Fragmentation and inefficiency Costs of fragmented modeling high Reduce fragmentation Maintaining capabilities Costly for entities to maintain Lower costs distributed across entities Timeframe of information Drawn out, discussion on details, small group Common models Integrated understanding Discipline specialization Multidisciplinary Prioritizing model and data Difficult to achieve Coordination committee Access to modeling expertise Institutional barriers Broad access, available resources, rapid to teploy Building and retaining long term talent Limited career paths, misalignments, mentoring Opens career pat, collaboration to build expertise supports agency program

Collaboratory ry Addit itional Features

• Establish and manage in

partnership UC, USGS, CWEMF, Delta Science, NGOs and private

• Problem based, convene modelers
• Physical location with meeting

space and virtual network

• Minimum staffing
• Capacity and contracting ability to

receive funding

• Training for managers, legislative

staffers, modeling experts

• Business model developed
• Support conceptual models and

facilitation of regular updates

Description

Development specific proposal for Delta Modeling Center Funding Aquirement Formation of a Model Coordinating Committee/Board of Directors Development of a common modeling plan Collaborative modeling of Delta management in drought Data sharing and its platform development Development of web interface, animations, and descriptions Establishment of the Delta Modeling Center Improvement in fish/ecosytem modeling Improvement in operations and water curtailments modeling Improvement in economics modeling Continuous model update and integration Development of cooperation mechanism

Timeline

Concluding Remarks

• Estuaries are complex systems
• Models help improve quantitative understanding
• Fragmentation occurs and creates inefficiencies
• Successful schemes involve integration, cross-

discipline, openness, data infrastructure

• No perfect data, no perfect models, learn from

mistakes, hard to change the paradigm

• A Collaboratory can

help advance research for managing estuarine systems

jmedellin@ucdavis.edu

Thank You

jm jmedell llin@ucdavis.e .edu