Input Committee Meeting May 30, 2018 24 Miles Up, Felix Baumgartner - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Input Committee Meeting

May 30, 2018

24 Miles Up, Felix Baumgartner Jumps!

Agenda

 Introductions and Opening Comments  Expected Outcomes for Master Planning Process  Project Approach and Schedule  Role of the Input Committee  Inventory of Existing Conditions  Key Planning Issues Identification  Forecasts of Aviation Activity  Questions & Comments  Next Steps

Project Team

 Airport Company  Airport Commission

• Master Plan Input Committee

 Federal Aviation Administration  Minnesota Department of Transportation  Consultants

• Mead & Hunt
• Volaire Aviation Consulting
• Leibowitz and Horton Airport Management Consultants

Airport Facilities

Terminal Area Facilities

Master Plan

 Statement of Policy

• Anticipate What We Think Will Happen
• Influence What We Want to Happen

Expected Outcomes

 Comprehensive Recommendations for Layout of Future Airport Facilities  Reasonable Long-Term Capital Improvement Plan  Appropriate Documentation of Considerations and Influences  FAA Approved Airport Layout Plan

Public Outreach

 Airport Company/Airport Commission Briefings  City Council Briefings  Input Committee  Technical Committee  Public Information Meetings

Project Approach

 Follow FAA Guidance  Building Block Process

• Inventory
• Forecasts
• Facilities Needs Determination
• Alternatives and Development Plan Formulation
• Financial Plan

Project Schedule

Role of Input Committee

 Committee is made up of a variety of Airport interest groups  Provide feedback on draft work products from your perspective  Not a voting group, consensus is not required, but your INPUT is CRITICAL !

Inventory of Existing Conditions

 Airport Background  Airport Facilities Inventory

• Airside Facilities
• Landside Facilities
• Airspace System and Naviads

 Airport Environs  Issues Summary

Key Planning Issues Discussion

 Customer Experience  Refined Forecast of Aviation Activity Including Air Service Growth Potential  Optimize Airfield Layout  Optimize Landside Configuration

• Long-Term terminal area plan
• Air cargo and consideration of potential increased activity
• Accommodate pent-up demand for general aviation hangars & flight training
• Accommodation of non-aeronautical development – revenue generation

 Financial Sustainability

Airport Facilities

Terminal Area Facilities

Forecasts of Aviation Activity

 Passenger Enplanements  Commercial Aircraft Operations  Cargo Activity  General Aviation Activity  Critical Aircraft Identification

Enplanement Forecast

 Several methods used to examine enplanements  Several forecasts are reasonable given past trends but unable to account for market changes  2017 TAF selected as the preferred forecast

50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Explanements

Historic Market Aero TAF - Reg TAF - Nat TAF

Year Market Share Aerospace Forecast TAF Great Lakes Regional Forecast* TAF National Forecast FAA TAF

2017 145,517 145,517 145,517 145,517 145,517 2022 172,276 158,219 157,742 159,581 208,557 2027 183,965 172,029 170,993 175,004 227,238 2032 196,967 187,044 185,358 191,919 248,168 2037 210,680 203,371 200,930 210,467 270,230 CAGR 1.87% 1.69% 1.63% 1.86% 3.14%

58.1 54.0 51.6 46.6 46.5 45.4 46.4 47.0 49.4 48.7 51.6 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Air Carrier Air Taxi Commuter Average Seats

Commercial Forecast

 Total number of operations based

• n 2017 TAF

 Types of operations have been changed to reflect future trends  50 seat aircraft increase expected to be temporary before transition

Year Air Carrier Commuter Air Taxi Total

2017 2,774 5,152 3,357 11,283 2022 5,092 1,273 4,244 10,609 2027 5,647 513 4,107 10,268 2032 6,173 220 4,630 11,023 2037 6,736 5,081 11,817

58.1 54.0 51.6 46.6 46.5 45.4 46.4 47.0 49.4 48.7 51.6 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Air Carrier Air Taxi Commuter Average Seats

Cargo Forecast

 Majority of cargo arrives and departs on FedEx  Average freight per flight has increased recently  Average freight applied to future increase in operations

Year FedEx Operations Total Freight Average Freight per Flight

2016 654 23,756,865 36,325 2022 970 36,489,759 37,620 2027 1,237 46,537,355 37,620 2032 1,470 55,290,835 37,620 2037 1,604 60,331,956 37,620

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Operations Cargo

Enplaned Deplaned FedEx Ops

General Aviation Trends

 Piston aircraft expected to decrease as recreational flight becomes less common  Turbine and rotor aircraft expected to increase with business growth

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026

Turbine and Rotor Aircraft Piston Aircraft

Piston Turbine Rotor 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Based Aircraft

Single Jet Multi Helicopter Other

Based Aircraft Forecast

 Forecasts within close proximity  Not all able to account for changing market conditions  Multivariate able to be updated and reflect socioeconomic conditions

50 60 70 80 90 100 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Total TAF Market Trend Population Income

Year TAF Market Share Trend Regression - Population Regression

• Income

Regression - Multivariate

2017 65 65 65 65 65 65 2022 68 72 74 77 72 72 2027 72 76 78 82 76 77 2032 77 79 82 87 79 80 2037 82 83 86 92 84 85 CAGR 1.17% 1.23% 1.40% 1.73% 1.27% 1.35%

General Aviation Forecast

 Operations forecasted independently by type  Local operations forecasted by

• perations per based aircraft

 Itinerant operations forecasted by increasing market share to historic peak

GA Local Operations Year Based Aircraft Operations 2017 64 8.878 2022 69 9,146 2027 73 9,543 2032 75 9,809 2037 80 10,471 GA Itinerant Operations Year RST Itinerant Operations MN Itinerant Operations RST Market Share 2017 16,113 96,157 16.8% 2022 17,755 98,194 18.1% 2027 19,464 100,295 19.4% 2032 21,259 102,544 20.7% 2037 23,152 104,965 22.1%

General Aviation Forecast

 Mayo Clinic operations expected to increase as fleet increases and moves to airport  All operations combined for total

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000

Operations

Itinerant Based Mayo

Year Turboprop Jet Helicopter Total

2017 1 1 2022 2 2 4 2027 2 4 6 2032 2 1 4 7 2037 2 1 5 8

Year Total

2017 25,816 2022 28,801 2027 31,508 2032 34,218 2037 37,073 CAGR 2017-2037 1.83%

Other Forecasts

 Military operations defer to the TAF as they are driven by federal policy  Ten-year historical average applied to determine future IFR operations

Year Total Total Airport Ops IFR % VFR VFR %

2017 39,170 21,239 54.2% 17,931 45.8% 2022 42,306 21,831 51.6% 20,475 48.4% 2027 44,670 23,051 51.6% 21,619 48.4% 2032 48,137 24,840 51.6% 23,297 48.4% 2037 51,786 26,723 51.6% 25,063 48.4%

Year Itinerant Local

Total Military 2017 907 1,989 2,896 2022 907 1,989 2,896 2027 907 1,989 2,896 2032 907 1,989 2,896 2037 907 1,989 2,896

Critical Aircraft

 Many facility dimensions and safety areas determined by the critical aircraft  The most demanding aircraft, or family or aircraft, with over 500 annual

• perations is selected

AAC Vref / Approach Speed

A Less than 91 knots B 91 knots or more, but less than 121 knots C 121 knots or more, but less than 141 knots D 141 knots or more, but less than 166 knots E 166 knots or more

ADG Tail Height

Wingspan I Less than 20 feet Less than 49 feet II 20 – 29 feet 49 – 78 feet III 30 – 44 feet 79 – 117 feet IV 45 – 59 feet 118 – 170 feet V 60 – 65 feet 171 – 213 feet VI 66 – 79 feet 214 – 261 feet

Critical Aircraft

 C-IV has over 500 annual operations  B757-200 and C130 are common aircraft in this family

RDC 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

A-I 3,479 3,544 3,838 3,244 2,454 3,086 3,277 3,131 3,070 2,830 2,935 A-II 204 260 189 220 312 366 470 441 436 500 427 A-III 3 2 B-I 2,838 3,012 2,737 3,149 2,997 2,792 2,770 2,726 2,896 2,224 2,115 B-II 7,709 8,015 5,260 4,538 4,518 4,016 3,855 3,707 3,619 3,827 4,356 B-III 7 20 19 127 187 340 394 139 40 52 26 B-IV 6 5 2 1 C-I 1,248 1,080 972 975 1,075 912 1,062 901 1,038 1,052 1,096 C-II 7,531 7,670 8,517 8,484 7,691 6,874 6,953 6,255 6,033 6,228 8,164 C-III 2,258 1,487 930 762 508 154 239 277 456 386 540 C-IV 541 237 35 92 410 623 818 897 1,047 1,084 743 C-V 5 5 6 10 2 6 10 9 8 6 C-VI 2 D-I 350 318 273 272 275 272 413 323 243 256 233 D-II 192 224 129 160 168 182 212 190 253 219 170 D-III 255 386 383 204 198 224 278 220 149 162 178 D-IV 2 6 2 5 4 D-V 2 5 3 2 Total 26,623 26,275 23,293 22,240 20,798 19,848 20,751 19,221 19,290 18,830 20,989

Forecasts Summary

Year Master Plan

Passenger Enplanements 2017 145,517 2022 208,557 2027 227,238 2032 248,168 Commercial Operations 2017 11,283 2022 10,609 2027 10,267 2032 11,023 Total Operations 2017 39,995 2022 41,656 2027 44,020 2032 47,487

24 Miles Up, Felix Baumgartner Jumps!

Master Plan = Spin Control

 Anticipate What We Think Will Happen  Influence What We Want to Happen

Questions & Comments

Next Steps

 Facility needs documentation  Identification of preliminary airport development alternatives  Publication of Working Paper Two  Input Committee Meeting #2  Public Information Meeting #1  Late July or Early August (save the date notices to be mailed out by June 8, 2018)

Project Contact Information

 Rochester International Airport Executive Director

• John Reed, A.A.E.
• JReed@flyrst.com
• 507-282-2328

 Mead & Hunt Project Manager

• Mark McFarland
• Mark.McFarland@MeadHunt.com
• 918-625-6953

Thank You!