Innovations in population statistics What weve done and whats to - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Innovations in population statistics What weve done and whats to come Ian Cope Director, Population & Demography, ONS 1 Population and migrations statistics at ONS: Overview My role About the Population and Demography
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and Demography directorate at ONS
people, producing range of outputs including Population Estimates, the Census and Life Events
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National identity
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Language
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Created by Oliver O’Brien (UCL Geography,/ UCL CASA)
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Passports
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http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/interactive/census-map-3-1---country-of-birth-and-passports---2011-only/index.html
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alternative population bases (e.g. for planning daytime emergency services in central London)
alternative population bases:
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Nearly 70% (135,000) of short term residents were aged 15 to 29, compared to 20% (11.2m)
India, China and the United States are the 3 most popular countries for both country of birth and passports held for STRs. 14 Age distribution of non-UK born short-term residents compared to usual residents in England and Wales, 2011
Top ten countries of birth for STRs in England and Wales, 2011
short-term residents (STRs) in England and Wales
level at 84 STRs per 10,000 usual residents
English regions and Wales, 2011 15
20 40 60 80 100 North East North West Yorkshire and the Humber East Midlands West Midlands East of England London South East South West Wales England and Wales Short-term residents per 10,000 usual residents
Percentage of national total STRs by sex for English regions and Wales, 2011
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The workforce in London was younger, with 54 % of the workplace population aged 39 or below, compared with 45% in the rest of England and Wales
17 London had a high proportion of level 4 and above qualifications – almost 50 %
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/interactive/census-2011--workplace-population-maps/index.html 18
student population to where they live
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Oxford and Cambridge had out of term populations more than 10% below their usually resident populations. The out of term population of England and Wales was 56.0 million in 2011; this was 125,000 lower than the usually resident population. The difference was due to residents of England and Wales with an out of term address in Scotland, Northern Ireland or outside the UK. Of these, 81% (101,000) were aged 16 to 24.
660,000 680,000 700,000 720,000 740,000 760,000 780,000 800,000 Age 13 Age 15 Age 17 Age 19 Age 21 Age 23 Age 25 Age 27 Age 29 Age 31 Usual residents Out of Term
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http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/interactive/census-map-1-3/index.html
Category Analytical articles
Health and social care
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Migration and demography
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Ethnicity, national identity, language and religion
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Labour market, housing and qualifications
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Travel to work and other geographic analysis
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socio-economic classes are found in big cities
identified by the 2011 Census
England and Wales
England and Wales
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Provision of data to Eurostat
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28 Population growth rate
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Migration and Population Statistics IPS Census and, LFS and IPS used to create distributions Complex methodology Confused messages between departments
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50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 Average Absolute distance Age in 2011 Original Males Improved Males
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50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 Average absolute distance Age in 2011 Original Females Improved Females
and the Census. A smaller distance means the MYEs are closer to the Census.
Migration and Population Statistics IPS Census and, LFS and IPS used to create distributions Complex methodology Confused messages between departments
Migration and Population
Statistics
Improved IPS
Use of administrative data
Transparent
methodology
Coherent reporting
Data sharing
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underlying data published on stocks
nationality were included
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2008
sub-sample for interviews collecting data for balance of payments and tourism statistics
2009
to under 3% for inflows and from over 5% to under 3.5% for outflows
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2007
to over 2,300
capture Romanian and Bulgarian migrants
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& Wales
information from vital registration systems
from the 1971 Census using four annual birth dates. Information for these individuals was then updated using the 1981, 1991 and 2001 Censuses
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513,000 530,000 535,000 537,000 582,000 409,000 421,000 418,000 423,000 327,000 332,000 335,000 257,000 200,000 263,000 1 census 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2 censuses 3 censuses 5 censuses 4 censuses
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Examples
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Examples
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http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/HTMLDocs/dvc128/wrapper.html 44
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Making it easier for users to find relevant datasets
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Viewing data on-line
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use ONS data
users in innovative and different ways
Winner of Accountability Hack 2014 48
Over 300 registered users to far ‘Hack days’ and other engagement
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Aggregate analysis Full (100%) linkage Partial (1%?) linkage Address register + Survey Administrative data options Full Census (long form to everyone) Rolling Census (over 5/10 year period) Short Form (everyone), Long form (Sample) Short Form + Annual Survey (US model) Census
Survey
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A census once a decade
but primarily online A census based on administrative data and large annual surveys
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statistics required and
annual surveys in the future.
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=> Production of more detailed and more frequent outputs
characteristics
data and surveys
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Census topic consultation begins Census White Paper Census Rehearsal Census Test? Census Day Census Order/Regs Enhanced Outputs Census Coverage Survey Options research
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Interim Outline Business Case Review point 2031 approach NS Recommendation Determine role
2021 Review admin data progress to 2031 Census small scale tests Data sharing White Paper? Regular
update? Admin research Final Outline Business Case Full Business Case
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Comparison of PR against 2011 Census estimates Comparison of CIS against 2011 Census estimates
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SPD 5
Admin data method lower than 2011 Census Admin data method higher than 2011 Census 59
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+ 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
population (millions)
Administrative data method population pyramid with Census comparison: England & Wales
Admininstrative data method Census Males Females Admininstrative data method Census
SPD 5
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SPD 5
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SPD 5
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Using only PR for 0-4 year olds
SPD 9
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SPD 5
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SPD 5
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SPD 5
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SPD 5
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Percentage difference between administrative data approach and 2011 Census estimates – Output Area level
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 greater than -15% lower between -15% and -14% between -14% and -13% between -13% and -12% between -12% and -11% between -11% and -10% between -10% and -9% between -9% and -8% between -8% and -7% between -7% and -6% between -6% and -5% between -5% and -4% between -4% and -3% between -3% and -2% between -2% and -1% within 1% between 1% and 2% between 2% and 3% between 3% and 4% between 4% and 5% between 5% and 6% between 6% and 7% between 7% and 8% between 8% and 9% between 9% and 10% between 10% and 11% between 11% and 12% between 12% and 13% between 13% and 14% between 14% and 15% greater than 15% higher
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0%
88% of OAs within +/-10% Ave 30 people 62% of OAs within +/-5% Ave 15 people
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Comparison of Percentage of Households of Each Size for selected LAs
Percentage of Households Household Size
1 2 3 4 5+ 10 20 30 40
Birmingham
10 20 30 40
Boston
10 20 30 40
Bournemouth
10 20 30 40
Brent
10 20 30 40
Cambridge
10 20 30 40
Camden
10 20 30 40
Cardiff
10 20 30 40
Ceredigion
10 20 30 40
Cheshire East
10 20 30 40
Chesterfield
10 20 30 40
Coventry
10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5+
East Devon
1 2 3 4 5+ 10 20 30 40
Eastbourne
10 20 30 40
Forest Heath
10 20 30 40
Herefordshire, County of
10 20 30 40
Hillingdon
10 20 30 40
Kensington and Chelsea
10 20 30 40
Kingston upon Thames
10 20 30 40
Lambeth
10 20 30 40
Leicester
10 20 30 40
Manchester
10 20 30 40
Newcastle upon Tyne
10 20 30 40
Newham
10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5+
Northumberland
1 2 3 4 5+ 10 20 30 40
Oxford
10 20 30 40
Powys
10 20 30 40
Reading
10 20 30 40
Richmondshire
10 20 30 40
Rotherham
10 20 30 40
Stratford-on-Avon
10 20 30 40
Tonbridge and Malling
10 20 30 40
Waltham Forest
10 20 30 40
Warwick
10 20 30 40
Waveney
10 20 30 40
Westminster
10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5+
Wirral
Administrative Data Method Census
2011 Census ethnicity English School Census ethnicity
White British Irish Irish Traveller/ Gypsy/Romany Indian Bangladeshi Pakistani White and Asian Other Asian Chinese African White and Black African Caribbean White and Black Caribbean Other White Other Black Other Mixed Other Ethnicity Missing Total (denominator) White British
95% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 2% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 2% 5,048,672
Irish
41% 47% 1% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 1% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 5% 0.50% 3% 0.50% 2% 22,609
Irish Traveller/ Gypsy/Romany
35% 2% 54% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 6% 0.50% 0.50% 1% 2% 9,150
Indian
0.50 % 0.50% 0.50% 89% 0.50% 1% 1% 5% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 1% 0.50% 2% 169,609
Bangladeshi
0.50 % 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 92% 1% 0.50% 2% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 4% 99,905
Pakistani
0.50 % 0.50% 0.50% 1% 0.50% 86% 1% 4% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 1% 3% 4% 252,189
White and Asian
11% 0.50% 0.50% 1% 0.50% 2% 54% 3% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 3% 0.50% 15% 3% 4% 82,152
Other Asian
1% 0.50% 0.50% 12% 0.50% 2% 2% 58% 1% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 4% 17% 2% 84,028
Chinese
2% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 1% 2% 83% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 7% 2% 2% 27,577
African
1% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 1% 0.50% 83% 1% 1% 0.50% 1% 7% 2% 1% 3% 190,489
White and Black African
6% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 8% 55% 1% 3% 3% 3% 14% 2% 4% 38,611
Caribbean
1% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 3% 0.50% 77% 3% 0.50% 9% 3% 1% 4% 71,256
White and Black Caribbean
12% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 2% 3% 62% 1% 2% 12% 1% 4% 108,920
Other White
8% 0.50% 1% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 1% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 75% 0.50% 6% 5% 3% 169,626
Other Black
1% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 34% 1% 30% 2% 0.50% 20% 6% 1% 4% 27,625
Other Mixed
10% 0.50% 0.50% 1% 0.50% 1% 5% 3% 1% 2% 3% 2% 8% 5% 4% 47% 5% 5% 23,763
Other Ethnicity
5% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 2% 12% 0.50% 2% 1% 0.50% 0.50% 10% 2% 10% 50% 4% 66,760
Missing
69% 0.50% 0.50% 2% 1% 3% 1% 2% 0.50% 4% 0.50% 2% 1% 5% 1% 2% 2% 3% 222,193
Census and England School Census Ethnicity
Topic Availability Sources and access Name Yes PR, CIS, School Censuses, HESA , Further Education data Age/Date of birth Yes PR, CIS, HESA, School Censuses , Further Education data Marital status* Partial Vital events data, PDS, DWP/HMRC Address (including one year ago, alternative)* Yes PR, CIS, HESA, School Censuses (postcode only), PDS, DWP/HMRC Ethnicity Partial School Census, Health Data National identity* Partial HESA , PDS, Country of birth* Partial DWP/HMRC Residence/migrant status* Partial PR, PDS, DWP/HMRC Passports held Partial Passport Agency – UK only Intention to stay No Language* Partial School Censuses, Health data Religion* Partial Health data
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Availability Sources/access
General health (Health index/condition* No Partial Health data) Caring responsibilities* Partial DWP/HRMC, Health data Long-term limiting illness/disability* Partial DWP/HRMC, Health data Qualifications Partial Education Data Economic activity* Partial DWP/HMRC Hours worked* Partial DWP/HMRC Mental health data Occupation No? Personal Income* Yes DWP/HMRC Place of work* Partial DWP/HMRC Mode of travel to work No
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using administrative data
characteristics without a census
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