Inmate Population Trends and Projections for Platte County - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Inmate Population Trends and Projections for Platte County Missouri Bill Garnos December 2018 Jail Consultant Purpose Objective and independent assessment. Justification. Transparency. Documentation. Provide a
justice system planning.
community support, and citizen engagement.
by Capt. Randall Pittman, Platte Co. Sheriff’s Office, 2012
ADP will reach operational capacity by 2014, and rated capacity by 2017. Recommended construction of “Futures” area for inmate housing.
by Goldberg Group Architects (GGA), and Weber & Associates, 2014
I. Project Overview II. Assessment of Existing Jail Facility
Expansion Options
Startup and Operation of an Expanded Platte County Adult Detention Center
Platte County needs to expand their jail to accommodate the volume of prisoners that it currently processes and to provide adequate housing for the future growth of its daily inmate
reaching and exceeding capacity and will soon reach the point where it can no longer accommodate the volume of arrestees presented for incarceration without exceeding its rated capacity.
Population Growth Rate for Platte County.
for a Facility, with three different inmate population forecasts.
GGA Forecast #1 — 20-year forecast shows a projected ADP of 288 inmates in 2032, requiring a jail capacity for 339. Platte County’s projected population growth and its impact on the jail population indicates a need for a 300 – 350 bed jail to accommodate the county’s need for jail space over the next 20 years ... .”
GGA Forecast #2 — 20-year forecast shows a projected ADP of 429 inmates in 2033, requiring a jail capacity for 505. [I]t is recommended that Platte County consider a jail facility that can accommodate 450 – 500 inmates.” GGA Forecast #3 — 20-year forecast shows a projected ADP of 542 inmates in 2033, requiring a jail capacity for 637.
Five Years 2018 173 – 194 Inmates ADP GGA Forecast #3 Need 637 Jail Beds GGA Forecast #2 Need 505 Jail Beds GGA Forecast #1 Need 339 Jail Beds Ten Years 2023 239 – 273 Inmates 15 Years 2028 265 – 385 Inmates 20 Years 2033 294 – 542 Inmates
by the Platte County Jail Committee, 2014
1)
There is no current need to justify the construction of new jail buildings or expanded facilities for housing inmates. 2) The Commission should engage the architects who designed the current facility as an independent expert. 3) There should be no discussion with KCMO regarding a long term contract. 4) The Prosecutor offices will require attention. 5) The County should incur no new debt for expanding Futures or for construction and remodeling of administrative offices. 6) The initial expert reports on the jail expansion and county population projections should be discarded.
3,247 3,516 2,903 2,827 3,258 2,869 3,041 2,415 2,746 2,937
368 390 404 411 455 543 528 537 539 642
238 257
298 287 324 373 410 497 431 414
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000
FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017
3,247 3,516 2,903 2,827 3,258 2,869 3,041 2,415 2,746 2,937
368 390 404 411 455 543 528 537 539 642
238 257
298 287 324 373 410 497 431 414
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000
FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017
Misdemeanors Associate Felonies Felonies
September 2018
Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
1 204 Inmates 2 205 Inmates 3 206 Inmates 4 211 Inmates 5 206 Inmates 6 201 Inmates 7 200 Inmates 8 196 Inmates 9 201 Inmates 10 206 Inmates 11 215 Inmates 12 211 Inmates 13 198 Inmates 14 193 Inmates 15 193 Inmates 16 195 Inmates 17 197 Inmates 18 199 Inmates 19 191 Inmates 20 182 Inmates 21 181 Inmates 22 177 Inmates 23 177 Inmates 24 176 Inmates 25 187 Inmates 26 179 Inmates 27 175 Inmates 28 178 Inmates 29 179 Inmates 30 179 Inmates
September 2018
Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
1 204 Inmates 2 205 Inmates 3 206 Inmates 4 211 Inmates 5 206 Inmates 6 201 Inmates 7 200 Inmates 8 196 Inmates 9 201 Inmates 10 206 Inmates 11 215 Inmates 12 211 Inmates 13 198 Inmates 14 193 Inmates 15 193 Inmates 16 195 Inmates 17 197 Inmates 18 199 Inmates 19 191 Inmates 20 182 Inmates 21 181 Inmates 22 177 Inmates 23 177 Inmates 24 176 Inmates 25 187 Inmates 26 179 Inmates 27 175 Inmates 28 178 Inmates 29 179 Inmates 30 179 Inmates
Daily Counts ranged from 175 to 215 Inmates. Average Daily Population (ADP) was 193 Inmates.
100 200 300 400 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 100 200 300 400 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Highest Month: 416 State Inmate Bookings Lowest Month: 223 State Inmate Bookings Since 2016, the Detention Center has averaged 350 state inmate bookings per month.
50 100 150 200 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 50 100 150 200 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Highest ADP: 181 State Inmates Since 2017, the Detention Center has had an ADP of 166 state inmates. Lowest ADP: 69 State Inmates
20 40 60 80 100 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20 40 60 80 100 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Lowest Months: O ICE Bookings Highest Month: 112 ICE Bookings Since 2016, the Detention Center has averaged 18 ICE bookings per month.
5 10 15 20 25 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 5 10 15 20 25 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Highest ADP: 23 ICE Detainees Since 2017, the Detention Center has had an ADP of 18 ICE Detainees. Lowest ADP: O ICE Detainees
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* ICE Bookings 579 153 171 132 56 36 43 62 183 256 141 ICE Inmate-Days 1,033 207 233 160 78 46 57 75 1,784 6,058 5,249 Annual ALOS 1.8 Days 1.4 Days 1.4 Days 1.2 Days 1.4 Days 1.3 Days 1.3 Days 1.2 Days 9.7 Days 23.7 Days 37.2 Days
Month 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*
Revenue
$80,471 $16,125 $18,151 $12,464 $6,076 $3,583 $4,440 $5,843 $138,974 $471,918 $408,897
* January – September.
100 200 300 400 500 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 100 200 300 400 500 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Highest Month: 429 Total Bookings Lowest Month: 225 Total Bookings Since 2016, the Detention Center has averaged 368 total bookings per month. 2008 – 2018 Trend
50 100 150 200 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 50 100 150 200 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Highest ADP: 194 Total Inmates Since 2017, the Detention Center has had an ADP of 184 Total Inmates. Lowest ADP: 70 Total Inmates
Month 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* State Inmates 86 94 97 104 125 131 130 119 140 164 170 ICE Detainees 3 1 1 5 17 19 Total Inmates 88 95 97 104 125 131 130 120 145 180 189 * January – September.
78 82 85 91 107 114 110 100 113 149 152 11 13 13 14 18 18 20 20 32 31 36
50 100 150 200 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
78 82 85 91 107 114 110 100 113 149 152 11 13 13 14 18 18 20 20 32 31 36
50 100 150 200 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Since 2015, the Detention Center has averaged 81% male inmates and 19% female inmates. Female Inmates Male Inmates
25 50 75 100 125 150 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 25 50 75 100 125 150 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Highest ADP: 159 Male Inmates Since 2017, the Detention Center has had an ADP of 151 Male Inmates. Lowest ADP: 61 Male Inmates
10 20 30 40 50 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 10 20 30 40 50 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Highest ADP: 46 Female Inmates Since 2017, the Detention Center has had an ADP of 33 Female Inmates. Lowest ADP: 10 Female Inmates
50 100 150 200 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 50 100 150 200 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Highest Population: 216 Total Inmates The Detention Center’s high (peak) population averages 11% over the ADP each month. Lowest Population: 56 Total Inmates
50 100 150 200 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 50 100 150 200 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
154 Beds 180 Beds
57,867 73,781 89,322 104,852 120,319 137,178
20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
57,867 73,781 89,322 104,852 120,319 137,178
20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Historical Census Population Current MARC Projections Current population was estimated at 101,187 in 2017.
through the County’s ADP of state inmates.
correlation between the number of state inmates and the County’s population, applied to the County’s population projections.
number of bookings for state inmates.
Linear ADP Trend Projections
Rate of Incarceration (ROI) Projections
Average Length of Stay (ALOS) Projections
50 100 150 200 250 300 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2023 2028 50 100 150 200 250 300 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2023 2028
Models 1B, 2C & 3C Models 2A, 2B, 3A & 3B Actual ADP Model 1A
Reasons for selecting Model 1A to use as the baseline, for facility planning purposes:
the eight forecasting models.
unreasonably low, given other indicators and growth trends.
planning purposes, but reflect the steep increase in the inmate population over the past five years.
50 100 150 200 250 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2023 2028 50 100 150 200 250 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2023 2028
Actual ADP Five Years 2023 ADP 202 State Inmates Ten Years 2028 ADP 241 State Inmates
1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
State Inmates per 1,000 County Population
7.8 8.7 9.4 10.5 13.1 13.3 12.4 12.5 11.9 14.5 14.8
5 10 15 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
7.8 8.7 9.4 10.5 13.1 13.3 12.4 12.5 11.9 14.5 14.8
5 10 15 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Days
“85 Percent Rule” ADP = 85% of Total Beds Needed
Baseline ADP Projections
Peaking Factor
Classification Factor
Total Jail Beds Needed
Forecast Year Year Baseline ADP Projections 85% Rule Total Jail Beds Needed 5 2023 202 36 237 10 2028 241 43 283 15 2033 280 49 330 20 2038 319 56 376 Forecast Year Year Baseline ADP Projections 85% Rule Total Jail Beds Needed 5 2023 202 36 237 10 2028 241 43 283 15 2033 280 49 330 20 2038 319 56 376
Inmates Beds
Housing Unit Gender Cells Beds Design Capacity Current Capacity
Dayroom A Females
9 16 22
Dayroom B Females
11 23 24
Dayroom C Males
11 21 24
Dayroom D Males
10 10 20
Dayroom E Males
11 23 24
Dayroom F Males
11 23 24
Dayroom G Males
11 23 24
Trusties
1 12 12
Holding Cells
4 3 6 Total 79 Cells 154 Beds 180 Beds Housing Unit Gender Cells Beds Design Capacity Current Capacity
Dayroom A Females
9 16 22
Dayroom B Females
11 23 24
Dayroom C Males
11 21 24
Dayroom D Males
10 10 20
Dayroom E Males
11 23 24
Dayroom F Males
11 23 24
Dayroom G Males
11 23 24
Trusties
1 12 12
Holding Cells
4 3 6 Total 79 Cells 154 Beds 180 Beds
Beds Shortfall
Forecast Year Year Total Jail Beds Needed Minus Existing “Capacity” Housing Shortfall 5 2023 237 –151 86 10 2028 283 –151 132 15 2033 330 –151 179 20 2038 376 –151 225 Forecast Year Year Total Jail Beds Needed Minus Existing “Capacity” Housing Shortfall 5 2023 237 –151 86 10 2028 283 –151 132 15 2033 330 –151 179 20 2038 376 –151 225
Forecast Year Year Baseline ADP Projections Total Jail Beds Needed Housing Shortfall 1 2019 170 200 49 2 2020 178 209 58 3 2021 186 219 68 4 2022 194 228 77 5 2023 202 237 86 6 2024 209 246 95 7 2025 217 256 105 8 2026 225 265 114 9 2027 233 274 123 10 2028 241 283 132 Forecast Year Year Baseline ADP Projections Total Jail Beds Needed Housing Shortfall 1 2019 170 200 49 2 2020 178 209 58 3 2021 186 219 68 4 2022 194 228 77 5 2023 202 237 86 6 2024 209 246 95 7 2025 217 256 105 8 2026 225 265 114 9 2027 233 274 123 10 2028 241 283 132
Inmates Shortfall Beds
requirements;
management; and
inmates) separate.
The population of Platte County is growing rapidly. Over the 20 years from the 1990 to the 2010 Census, the population of Platte County increased by 54 percent. Current population is estimated at 101,000 people. Over the next two decades (from 2020 to 2040), the population of Platte County is expected to grow another 30 percent, to over 137,000 residents. As the County’s population grows, the demands on its criminal justice system — and its jail system — also grow.
Since 2017, the Detention Center has had an ADP of 166 state inmates. The Detention Center has also been holding an ADP of 18 ICE detainees, which provide revenue for the County. This year, the Detention Center hit its highest monthly ADP, with 194 total inmates in June, and 193 total inmates in August and September. The Detention Center’s highest one-day inmate population was 216 inmates, which it hit in May 2017.
It is estimated that Platte County will need a total of:
202 state inmates;
241 state inmates;
280 state inmates; and
319 state inmates.
Subtracting 151 beds in the existing jail from the total number of jail beds needed, it is estimated that Platte County will have an inmate housing “shortfall” of:
Platte County is currently in the process of making some important, multi-million dollar, facility planning decisions. The goal of this study was to establish some reasonable jail capacity estimates for facility planning purposes. Ultimately, the County will need to decide how large any jail expansion or new jail facility should be — given all the historical data, emerging issues, and current projections. Hopefully, the graphs, data, trend analysis, and other information in this report will aid the County in its efforts to address the County’s growing jail population, and the appropriate size for any jail expansion or new jail facility.