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City of Kelowna Population Growth Demographics Trends Projections - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
City of Kelowna Population Growth Demographics Trends Projections - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
City of Kelowna Population Growth Demographics Trends Projections Historic Population Growth Average Annual Growth Rate 2 to 2.5% (1973 Amalgamation 2006 Census) Average growth rates disguise short term fluctuations
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Historic Population Growth
106,707 96,288 89,442 75,950 61,213 59,196 51,955 19,415
20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 1971 Census 1976 Census 1981 Census 1986 Census 1991 Census 1996 Census 2001 Census 2006 Census
Year Population
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Single Family BP Issuances (1972-2008)
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
1974 1982 1992 2000 2004
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Historic Demographics
Population Data (1981 – 2006)
Year 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Population under 15 19 % 18 % 19 % 18 % 17 % 15.4 % Population over 65 16 % 18 % 19 % 18 % 19 % 19.5 % Male / female (%) 48/52 48/52 48/52 48/52 48/52 48/52 Average family unit 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 Average household size 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.26 Total Population 59,196 61,213 75,950 89,442 96,288 106,707
Source: Statistics Canada: Census 1981, 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001, 2006
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Population Trends
- Historical 30 year average annual growth
rates of approximately 2.5%
- More recent trends are on the order of
2.1% population growth per year
- Increasing seniors and early retirement
population
- Decline in number of children
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Population Trends
- Decline in number of young adults
(moderated by growth at UBCO and OC)
- Recent increase in adults between 35 – 55
attracted by employment opportunity
- Decline in average household size
(moderated by sharing, blended families, elderly care)
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Population Projections
Assumptions:
- We will all be a year older next year
- Excluding migration, there will not be any more
20 year olds next year than we have 19 year
- lds this year
- Birth / death rates and aging explain only part of
the future
- Migration will continue to be the most important
component of population growth
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Population Projections
Death rates will continue to increase and birth rates will continue to fall
Beginning in 2011 it is projected that for the first time death rates will be higher than birth rates
Population growth will occur as a result of natural increase and migration of retirees prior to 2011
Migration alone will be the determinant of growth beyond 2011 due to retirees and younger labour force migrants
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Population Projections
A greater level of amenities and services will continue to attract seniors to the City
Continued economic growth will attract working age people to new jobs and jobs vacated by retirees
A short term increase in young adults will result from students attending UBCO and OC
May be balanced by significant employment and residential growth (due to improved access/new bridge) on the Westside, particularly on First Nations lands
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Population Projection
161,701 Proj. 152,038 Proj. 141,689 Proj. 130,750 Proj. 118,657 Proj. 106,707 Proj. 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 2006 Census 2010 (Proj) 2015 (Proj) 2020 (Proj) 2025 (Proj) 2030 (Proj)
Year Population
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Comparison to Other Regions
Source: BC Stats
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1 2 3 4 5 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Year Percentage
Central OK North OK OK - Similkameen Thompson - Nicola Fraser - Ft. George Capital RD Nanaimo RD City of Kelowna
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Demographic Projection
Age Breakdown for RDCO Population (2006 and 2030)
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 0 - 4 5 - 9 10 - 14 15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 44 45 - 49 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64 65 - 69 70 - 74 75 - 79 80 - 84 85 - 89 90+
A ge Population
2030 2006
Source: B.C. Statistics Regional District Population Projection (PEOPLE 32 – August 2007)
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Household Size Projections
Average household size in 1981 was 2.7
In 1991 its was 2.4 and in 2001 it was 2.3
Average household size in 2006 was 2.26
Average household size is projected to fall to 2.16 by 2020 and to 2.11 by 2030
The 20 year projected average would be 2.18
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Population Projection
“Projections do not give a precise statement of what the future will bring, but rather, they provide information about what might happen under a set of stated circumstances”. Projections are intended “to capture the nature and magnitude of the directions of change”. Projections provide an opportunity to influence the future outcome to match the vision or to “avoid a future that may not be desirable”.
Source: David Baxter, Andrew Ramlo, Elana Rosenberg; Housing the Central Okanagan Regional District’s Future Population: Demographics and Demand, 1996 to 2026; Urban Futures Institute and The Land Centre, 1998
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Population Projection
2009 projected population is over 116,000 people
Projected population in 2030 will be almost 162,000
That means there will be almost 45,500 new people in Kelowna by 2030
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How do we use demographic trends / population projections?
At an average household size of 2.18 we will need almost 21,000 new housing units by 2030
We need to plan where all those people will live, shop, and play
We need to plan in what type of housing all those people will live
We need to plan how we will provide services such as roads, transit and other utilities
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