Influenza Risk Mitigation Model By the Risk Mitigation Steering - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Development of an Avian Influenza Risk Mitigation Model By the Risk Mitigation Steering Committee (RMSC)

Background

• 2004 Avian Influenza outbreak

caused significant financial loss.

• Industry has made significant

improvements to bio-security practices.

• Government compensation for

loss and costs is inadequate.

• AI could happen again.

What more can be done?

• Continue working to

decrease the chance and the consequence of another outbreak

• Develop a tool to fill

the gap in current compensation

Individual farm responsibility Industry support Government Payments Total cost

• f outbreak

Benefits of the program

• Payback from bio-security

implementation.

• Reduce farm risk.
• Better compensation in the event
• f another AI outbreak.
• May include other diseases in

the future.

• Less risk of losing export

markets.

What is being done?

• RMSC engaged BMS & Serecon.
• Develop program model for all poultry

quota holders

• Build linkages to existing bio-

security and surveillance activities

• Provide on-going

communications with industry.

Project time line

Data Collection Modeling Develop Terms & Conditions Recommendation & Industry Consultations

Implementation

December - January January - February February – March March Onward

Subject to Approval

Data Collection

• Use existing data where possible

– Geospatial – Current farm bio-security information – Financial loss modeling

• Additional Information

– On farm assessments

• Phone Survey
• On farm visits

Data Collection

(Dec - Jan)

Modeling

Quantifying the actuarial financial impact. Quantifying the probability of disease spread.

Modeling

(Jan – Feb)

Terms & Conditions

• Calculate premiums and

coverage

• Determine eligibility
• Design delivery structure

Develop Terms & Conditions

(Feb – Mar)

Recommendation & Industry Consultation

• A model has been established
• Industry consultation to

address structural details of the program

• Boards to make final decision

subject to approvals.

Recommendation & Industry Consultations

(March)

Implementation

• Decision by Boards on

direction based on approvals

• Establish systems /

infrastructure

• Launch program

Implementation

(Subject to Approval)

Producer impacts – Data collection

• Existing Board staff will lead

the process.

• Will start with existing

information.

• Arrange to conduct a phone

interview with randomly selected producers to gather additional information.

• Small number of on farm

verification visits

Data Collection

(Dec - Jan)

Benefits

• Better compensation in the event
• f another AI outbreak.
• Reduce farm risk.
• Payback from bio-security

implementation.

• Less risk of losing export markets.
• On-going management tool.
• The model generated can be used

for other similar situations

More information

Board:

• General Managers

RMSC

• Ron Kilmury
• Garnet Etsell
• Jake Esau

ARDCorp

• Reg Ens
• Heather Carriere

BCMAL:

• Stewart Paulson
• Lonny Steward