Development of an Avian Influenza Risk Mitigation Model By the Risk Mitigation Steering Committee (RMSC)
Background • 2004 Avian Influenza outbreak caused significant financial loss. • Industry has made significant improvements to bio-security practices. • Government compensation for loss and costs is inadequate. • AI could happen again.
What more can be done? • Continue working to decrease the chance and the consequence of another outbreak • Develop a tool to fill Individual farm the gap in current responsibility compensation Total cost Industry of outbreak support Government Payments
Benefits of the program • Payback from bio-security implementation. • Reduce farm risk. • Better compensation in the event of another AI outbreak. • May include other diseases in the future. • Less risk of losing export markets.
What is being done? • RMSC engaged BMS & Serecon. • Develop program model for all poultry quota holders • Build linkages to existing bio- security and surveillance activities • Provide on-going communications with industry.
Project time line December - January Data Collection Modeling January - February Develop Terms & February – March Conditions Recommendation & March Onward Industry Consultations Implementation Subject to Approval
Data Collection • Use existing data where possible Data – Geospatial Collection – Current farm bio-security (Dec - Jan) information – Financial loss modeling • Additional Information – On farm assessments • Phone Survey • On farm visits
Modeling Modeling (Jan – Feb) Quantifying the Quantifying the actuarial probability of financial impact. disease spread.
Terms & Conditions • Calculate premiums and coverage Develop Terms & Conditions • Determine eligibility (Feb – Mar) • Design delivery structure
Recommendation & Industry Consultation • A model has been established Recommendation • Industry consultation to & Industry Consultations address structural details of (March) the program • Boards to make final decision subject to approvals.
Implementation • Decision by Boards on Implementation direction based on approvals (Subject to Approval) • Establish systems / infrastructure • Launch program
Producer impacts – Data collection • Existing Board staff will lead the process. Data • Will start with existing Collection (Dec - Jan) information. • Arrange to conduct a phone interview with randomly selected producers to gather additional information. • Small number of on farm verification visits
Benefits • Better compensation in the event of another AI outbreak. • Reduce farm risk. • Payback from bio-security implementation. • Less risk of losing export markets. • On-going management tool. • The model generated can be used for other similar situations
More information • General Managers Board: • Ron Kilmury • Garnet Etsell RMSC • Jake Esau • Reg Ens ARDCorp • Heather Carriere • Stewart Paulson BCMAL: • Lonny Steward
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