Influence of the Solar activity on thermal conditions in high - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Influence of the Solar activity

• n thermal conditions in high

latitudes of the Northern hemisphere

A.A. Fomenko, ICM&MG SB RAS V.A. Kovalenko, ISTP SB RAS L.I. Kurbatskaya, ICM&MG SB RAS

The main idea is the following.

• The external factors, associated with the solar space beams and

accompanying magnetospheric perturbations are capable of affecting the climatic system by the energy flux coming into the space from the Earth. Verbatim it is like this.

• Amplification of the solar geophysical activity (fluxes of the solar

space beams, perturbations of the solar wind and interplanetary field, geomagnetic storms and substorms) result in an increase in difference of the Ionosphere-Earth electric potential.

• Increasing the difference of the potential is accompanied by an

increase in the vertical electric field resulting in redistribution in height in the troposphere of charged condensation particles, that is elevation of negatively charged nuclei to large heights.

• In this case, in the regions, where earlier the concentration of such

nuclei was low, and the content of water vapor sufficiently large, the water vapor is condensed and cloudiness is formed.

• The formed cloudiness brings about the change in radiation
• balance. Thus, this mechanism will have the greatest influence on radiation

balance and thermobaric troposphere field in high-latitude regions. This

• ccurs in the absence of incoming flux of short-wave radiation from the Sun.

The proposed work is aimed at studying the indicated mechanism with the help of numerical modeling.

Zherebtsov G.A., Kovalenko V.A., Molodykh S.I., Rubtsova O.A. Model

• f solar activity action on climate characteristics of the Earth

troposphere // Atmosphere and ocean optics. 2005. V. 18. N 12. P. 1042-

• 1050. (in Russian).

down up net

F F F + =

z F F c T

z z p

∆ − ∆

+1

1 ~ ρ

An effective radiation flux is formed of fluxes of ascending and descending radiation In this case, a change in temperature (the radiation cooling rate) is determined by a difference of effective fluxes on the upper and the lower boundaries of the layer

Long-wave radiation fluxes in high latitudes in the winter period (Down - descending long-wave radiation fluxes; Up - ascending long-wave radiation fluxes; Net=Up-Down is an effective flux of long-wave radiation)

1D radiation model

Geleyn J.-F., Hollingsworth A. An economical analytical method for the computation of the interaction between scattering and line absorption of radiation contributions to atmospheric physics // Beitr. Phys. Atmosph.

• 1979. V. 52. N 1. P. 1-16.

1 - Experiment, in which an effective flux and the appropriate daily temperature variation were calculated from the current state (the so-called control). 2 - Experiment, in which an effective flux and the appropriate daily temperature variation were calculated under condition that the cloud amount was equal to zero, the rest characteristics being unchanged. 3 - An effective flux and appropriate daily temperature variation were calculated with the cloud amount equal to 1 everywhere, the rest characteristics being unchanged. 4 - Dry atmosphere, indicating to the presence only of gases and aerosols, is nothing as compared to the presence of moisture. 5 - Experiment, in which an effective flux and appropriate daily temperature variation were calculated with double cloud amount. It is aimed at demonstration of a possible existence of the mechanism of a change in the temperature conditions with increasing cloudiness due to redistribution of aerosol particles. In the model, the cloudiness amount of a medium layer does not exceed 0.4. If the clouds formation conditions change, the cloudiness amount can, respectively, twice increase. 6 - The cloudiness amount is equal to 1 only at the level of 500mb, to zero everywhere else. 7 - An effective flux and appropriate daily temperature variation were calculated with all unchanged parameters, except for the level of 500mb, where the cloudiness amount was set equal to 1. This experiment is of interest because it enables one in terms of methods to evaluate a possible influence of formation of additional cloudiness on redistribution of heat characteristics. 8 - The cloudiness amount equals 1 only at the level of 500mb, everywhere else being zero in the dry atmosphere (nothing but applied methods are of interest).

Effective long-wave radiation fluxes, calculated according to the conducted experiments (digits stand for numbers of experiments)

1 - Experiment, in which an effective flux and the appropriate daily temperature variation were calculated from the current state (the so-called control). 3 - An effective flux and appropriate daily temperature variation were calculated with the cloud amount equal to 1 everywhere, the rest characteristics being unchanged. 4 - Dry atmosphere, indicating to the presence only of gases and aerosols, is nothing as compared to the presence of moisture. 6 - The cloudiness amount is equal to 1 only at the level of 500mb, to zero everywhere else. 8 - The cloudiness amount equals 1 only at the level of 500mb, everywhere else being zero in the dry atmosphere (nothing but applied methods are of interest).

The vertical temperature variation according to our experiments (digits stand for numbers of experiments)

1 - Experiment, in which an effective flux and the appropriate daily temperature variation were calculated from the current state (the so-called control). 2 - Experiment, in which an effective flux and the appropriate daily temperature variation were calculated under condition that the cloud amount was equal to zero, the rest characteristics being unchanged. 5 - Experiment, in which an effective flux and appropriate daily temperature variation were calculated with double cloud amount. It is aimed at demonstration of a possible existence of the mechanism of a change in the temperature conditions with increasing cloudiness due to redistribution of aerosol particles. In the model, the cloudiness amount of a medium layer does not exceed 0.4. If the clouds formation conditions change, the cloudiness amount can, respectively, twice increase. 7 - An effective flux and appropriate daily temperature variation were calculated with all unchanged parameters, except for the level of 500mb, where the cloudiness amount was set equal to 1. This experiment is of interest because it enables one in terms of methods to evaluate a possible influence of formation of additional cloudiness on redistribution of heat characteristics.

The vertical temperature variation according to our experiments (digits stand for numbers of experiments)

A change in temperature conditions in high latitudes under the solar activity

Fomenko A.A., Krupchatnikov V.N. A finite-difference model of atmospheric dynamics with conservation laws // Bull. Nov. Comp. Center,

• Num. Model. in Atmosph., etc. V. 1. 1993. P. 17-31.

Fomenko A.A., Krupchatnikov V.N., Yantzen A.G. A finite-difference model of atmosphere (ECSib) for climatic investigations // Bull. Nov.

• Comp. Center, Num. Model. in Atmosph., etc. V. 4. 1996. P. 11-19.

Experiments with the general atmosphere circulation model were conducted as

• follows. Starting from the stable state on December 22, the control calculation was

done (Experiment 1). Against its background, the calculations with a changed cloudiness amount were done. The second experiment – the cloudiness amount over the land to the North of 680N was twice increased as compared to the initial. Then the cloudiness amount was reduced to a natural simulated state. This makes it possible to take into account the effect of the mechanism of aerosol redistribution and formation of additional cloudiness. By recognizing that the formation of additional cloudiness is possible, for example,

• nly in high altitudes, the third experiment was carried out, in which the cloudiness

amount over the land to the North of 680N was artificially increase up to 0.8 at the level of 300mb during one day. This corresponds to formation of dense cirrostratus clouds. A change of the cloudiness amount only over the land was done for the purity of

• experiments. As in the model, the ocean surface temperature was taken assigned, it

was interesting to investigate its change in the regions, where immediate interaction with an underlying surface takes place, when temperature and humidity of the underlying surface are recalculated with the equation of balance.

Subsequent temperature variations at 1000mb level (a difference between experiments 2 and 1)

Subsequent temperature variations at 500mb level (a difference between experiments 2 and 1)

Subsequent temperature variations at 1000mb level (a difference between experiments 3 and 1)

Subsequent temperature variations at 500mb level (a difference between experiments 3 and 1)

Conclusion

Based on the conducted simple experiments it is shown that the mechanism of the influence on atmosphere characteristics in the high latitudes troposphere, which is based on the hypothesis of additional cloudiness formation at the account

• f the solar activity, holds. At least, if such a mechanism actually exists, then it

affects the current thermal atmosphere conditions (the weather). This will result in the reorganization of the whole dynamics. Taking into consideration the fact that heat contents of the Earth’s climatic system during the decades period has essentially increased we may conclude that the observed changes of the Earth’s climatic system are due to a decrease of the energy flux, radiated by the Earth into

• space. But only quasi-periodic variations of the solar constant were observed

during the last 40-50 years, a significant trend was absent. Hence, it is early to speak about the effect of the solar activity action on the climate changes. We can speak only about the internal variation due to the indicated factor (the solar activity variations). To provide support for the importance of the influence of the mechanism in question on the change of a current state of the atmosphere, it is necessary to carry out further studies based on the real data. In the case of increasing the solar activity action, it is necessary to analyze a synoptic situation, which accompanies the phenomenon.

References

• 1. Zherebtsov G.A., Kovalenko V.A., Molodykh S.I., Rubtsova O.A. Model of

solar activity action on climate characteristics of the Earth troposphere // Atmosphere and ocean optics. 2005. V. 18. N 12. P. 1042-1050. (in Russian).

• 2. Geleyn J.-F., Hollingsworth A. An economical analytical method for the

computation of the interaction between scattering and line absorption of radiation contributions to atmospheric physics // Beitr. Phys. Atmosph. 1979. V.

• 52. N 1. P. 1-16.
• 3. Fomenko A.A., Krupchatnikov V.N. A finite-difference model of atmospheric

dynamics with conservation laws // Bull. Nov. Comp. Center, Num. Model. in Atmosph., etc. V. 1. 1993. P. 17-31.

• 4. Fomenko A.A., Krupchatnikov V.N., Yantzen A.G. A finite-difference model of

atmosphere (ECSib) for climatic investigations // Bull. Nov. Comp. Center, Num.

• Model. in Atmosph., etc. V. 4. 1996. P. 11-19.
• 5. Zaitseva N.A., Shliakhov V.I. Long-wave radiation in the Antarctic atmosphere

// Investigation of the Antarctic climate. L.: Hidrometeorological Publ., 1980. P. 27-33. (in Russian).

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