Industry Critical Illness Survey Eddie McEllin Senior Actuary - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Industry Critical Illness Survey

Eddie McEllin

Senior Actuary

• Tel. +61 2 8236 6206

eddie.mcellin@genre.com

Industry Critical Illness Survey 2

About the Survey

CBA, 365.4, 14% ZURICH, 98.4, 4% MLC, 366.7, 14% AVIVA, 114.4, 4% AIG, 43.5, 2% ASTERON, 186.4, 7% Not Covered, 746.1, 27% TOWER, 249.6, 9% ING, 305.9, 11% WESTPAC, 207.9, 8%

Survey covered 9 Australian insurers of Trauma insurance

Source: “Media Release Life Insurance Risk Products Industry Results - June 2006”

Major carriers not covered: AMP 11%, AXA 8%

Annual Premium $m, %

Industry Critical Illness Survey 3

Scope of the experience investigation

• Claims data includes 3902 claims incurred and $537million in claims paid.
• Exposure data includes 1.57million life years and 238 billion is sum assured.
• Incidence rates obtained from claim count divided by central exposed to risk at age next
• birthday. Includes both accelerated and stand alone trauma claims, but excludes death claims.
• Graduated rates obtained by from male and female, 2+ duration, raw incidence rates.

5 – Year Observation Period

2001/01/01 2005/01/01 2004/01/01 2003/01/01 2005/12/31 2002/01/01

1) Critical Illness in-force at any time during 2001-2005 2) Critical Illness claims diagnosed during 2001-2005

Industry Critical Illness Survey 4

Distribution of Exposure by Age

Female Male All

Average Age

40.4 41.4 40.9

20-29 9% 9% 9% 30-39 37% 32% 35% 40-49 40% 40% 40% 50-59 13% 17% 16% >60 1% 1% 1%

Gender Mix

Female = 46% Male = 54%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Female Male

Australian Critical Illness Survey 5

Trauma Incidence Rates (Male)

Trauma only (2+ Duration, Accelerated and Stand Alone)

Male

0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020

20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Age

Incidence Rates

Raw Graduated

Total Male Data: 1831 claims, 565,143 life years

Male

0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020

20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Age

Incidence Rates

Raw Graduated

Australian Critical Illness Survey 6

Trauma Incidence Rates (Female)

Trauma only (2+ Duration, Accelerated and Stand Alone)

Female 0.000 0.002 0.004 0.006 0.008 0.010 0.012

20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Age

Incidence Rates

Raw Graduated

Total Female Data: 1200 claims, 498,364 life years

Female 0.000 0.002 0.004 0.006 0.008 0.010 0.012

20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Age

Incidence Rates

Raw Graduated

Industry Critical Illness Survey 7

Trauma Incidence Rates

Male / Female Comparison

0.0000 0.0020 0.0040 0.0060 0.0080 0.0100 0.0120 0.0140 0.0160 0.0180 0.0200 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Age Incidence Rates

Male Female

Industry Critical Illness Survey 8

Trauma Incidence Rates (Male)

Comparison with International Trauma Survey 2000-2004 International includes: Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Singapore

0.0000 0.0020 0.0040 0.0060 0.0080 0.0100 0.0120 0.0140 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

Age Incidence Rates

Australian International

Industry Critical Illness Survey 9

Trauma Incidence Rates (Female)

Comparison with International Trauma Survey 2000-2004

0.0000 0.0010 0.0020 0.0030 0.0040 0.0050 0.0060 0.0070 0.0080 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

Incidence Rates Age

Australian International

Comparison with International Trauma Survey 2000-2004 International includes: Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Singapore

Industry Critical Illness Survey 10

Distribution of Claims by Age (Male)

90% of the claims are incurred between ages 34.7 and 60.3

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Age # of Claims Expected Actual

90% 5% 5% 34.7 60.3 48.9 Mean

Industry Critical Illness Survey 11

Distribution of Claims by Age (Female)

90% of the claims are incurred between ages 33.1 and 57.6

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Age # of Claims Expected Actual

90% 5% 5% 33.1 57.6 46.0 Mean

Industry Critical Illness Survey 12

Distribution of Claims

Male / Female Comparison

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Age # of Claims Male Female

Australian Critical Illness Survey 13

Comparison by Calendar Year

A/E Ratios by Calendar Year

101% 100% 105% 105% 86% 105% 95% 95% 93% 94%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Male Female

Industry Critical Illness Survey 14

Comparison by Duration

106% 104% 100% 100% 80% 90% 96% 96%

70% 80% 90% 100% 110% Duration 5+ Duration 2+ Duration 1 Duration 0

A/E Ratios by Selection Period

Male Female

Industry Critical Illness Survey 15

Comparison by Smoking Status

105% 122% 96% 96%

70% 100% 130% Smoker Non-smoker

A/E Ratios by Smoking Status

Male Female

Industry Critical Illness Survey 16

Comparison by Sum Assured

112% 100% 95% 106% 104% 105% 91% 93% 91% 88%

80% 90% 100% 110% 120% >250k 150k-250k 100k-150k 50k-100k <50k

A/E Ratios by Sum Assured Amount

Male Female

Industry Critical Illness Survey 17

Time from Event Date to Notification

44% 43% 44% 44% 19% 20% 21% 21% 10% 7% 8% 8% 9% 11% 10% 10% 18% 19% 16% 17% Duration 0 Duration 1 Duration 2+ All Durations

<=30 31-60 61-90 91-180 >180

130 Days 134 Days 116 Days 119 Days Avg Time =

Industry Critical Illness Survey 18

Time from Notification to Benefit Payment

5% 10% 15% 13% 15% 22% 33% 30% 25% 22% 21% 22% 34% 27% 22% 24% 20% 18% 9% 11% Duration 0 Duration 1 Duration 2+ All Durations

<=30 31-60 61-90 91-180 >180

135 Days 129 Days 90 Days 99 Days Avg Time =

Time from Event to Payment =

265 Days 262 Days 204 Days 217 Days

Industry Critical Illness Survey 19

Cause of Claim by Site

Cancer, 50% Cardiac, 35% Stroke, 5% Other Neuroligical, 2% Other, 8%

Cancer, 80% Stroke, 4% Other, 6% Other Neurological, 4% Cardiac, 6%

Males (% Total) Females (% Total)

Cancer, Cardiac, and Stroke account for 90%

• f male claims

Gender Age Band 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+ 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+ Number of Claims 25 279 706 489 36 25 254 844 1074 170 Cancer

52.0% 76.0% 84.0% 83.0% 58.3% 52.0% 58.7% 47.6% 49.7% 50.0%

Cardiac/Heart Attack

0.0% 5.4% 5.2% 7.2% 19.4% 12.0% 18.9% 37.2% 36.8% 38.2%

Stroke

12.0% 4.3% 3.4% 2.7% 11.1% 12.0% 6.7% 4.0% 5.2% 5.3%

Neurological (MS)

16.0% 6.5% 2.1% 2.9% 11.1% 0.0% 3.5% 1.4% 2.2% 0.6%

Organ Disorders

4.0% 2.5% 0.7% 1.2% 0.0% 4.0% 0.8% 1.2% 0.5% 0.6%

Head Trauma/Coma

4.0% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.0% 4.0% 2.8% 1.3% 0.7% 0.6%

Accidents

4.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 2.4% 2.1% 0.5% 0.6%

Loss of Abilities

0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 1.1% 0.5% 1.2%

Paralysis

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%

Blood Disorders

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Transplants

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%

Other

8.0% 4.3% 2.8% 1.8% 0.0% 4.0% 3.1% 3.6% 3.7% 2.9%

Female Male

Industry Critical Illness Survey 20

Cause of Claim by Age and Site

Industry Critical Illness Survey 21

Cause of Claim International Comparison

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Australia UK Malaysia China MALE

Other Accidents Neurological/Stroke Cardiac/Heart Attack Cancer

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Australia UK Malaysia China FEMALE Other Organ Disorders Neurological/Stroke Cardiac/Heart Attack Cancer

Industry Critical Illness Survey 22

Cancer Incidence Rates

Male / Female Comparison

0.0000 0.0010 0.0020 0.0030 0.0040 0.0050 0.0060 0.0070 0.0080 0.0090 0.0100 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Incidence Rates Age

Male Female

Industry Critical Illness Survey 23

Cancer Incidence Rates (Male)

Comparison with Population Incidence Rates

0.0000 0.0020 0.0040 0.0060 0.0080 0.0100 0.0120 0.0140 0.0160 0.0180 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Age Incidence Rates

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% % Difference

Insured Population Ins/Pop

Population cancer rates graduated from 2001 to 2004 raw incidence data. Source: Australian Institute of Health and Welfare

Industry Critical Illness Survey 24

Cancer Incidence Rates (Female)

Comparison with Population Incidence Rates

0.0000 0.0020 0.0040 0.0060 0.0080 0.0100 0.0120 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Age Incidence Rates

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% % Difference

Insured Population Ins/Pop

Population cancer rates graduated from 2001 to 2004 raw incidence data. Source: Australian Institute of Health and Welfare

Industry Critical Illness Survey 25

Cancer Claims by Site

Connective tissue (Bone, Skin, Breast), 13% Respiratory / Lung, 3% Digestive Organs, 20% Blood & Lymphatic, 14% Reproductive & Urinary, 36% Other (including brain & thryoid), 8% Mouth/Throat/Oesophagus, 6% Connective tissue (Bone, Skin, Breast), 69% Respiratory / Lung, 2% Digestive Organs, 7% Mouth/Throat/Oesophagus, 1% Blood & Lymphatic, 6% Other (including brain & thryoid), 7% Reproductive & Urinary, 8%

Males (% Total) Females (% Total)

Prostate cancer has the greatest incidence of cancer among males (23%)

Industry Critical Illness Survey 26

Cancer Claims by Age and Site

Insured Age Band 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+ 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+

Number of Claims

9 138 342 240 11 8 71 199 263 43

Mouth/Throat/Oesophagus 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 3% 7% 7% 5% Digestive Organs 11% 8% 5% 10% 9% 13% 15% 21% 19% 23% Respiratory/Lung 0% 1% 2% 3% 0% 0% 3% 3% 4% 2% Connectived tissue (Skin, Bone, Breast) 44% 67% 75% 64% 55% 13% 15% 20% 8% 5% Reproductive & Urinary 22% 8% 8% 9% 9% 38% 24% 25% 46% 49% Blood & Lymphatic 11% 7% 5% 7% 18% 25% 23% 19% 10% 7% Brain, nervous system, & endocrine glands 11% 9% 5% 8% 9% 13% 17% 6% 7% 9%

Female Male Population Age Band 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+ 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+

Number of Claims

2743 8212 19748 31214 16380 2752 5517 11883 31578 23507

Mouth/Throat/Oesophagus 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% 5% 9% 11% 7% 6% Digestive Organs 4% 7% 9% 13% 19% 4% 10% 18% 20% 21% Respiratory/Lung 1% 1% 4% 6% 9% 2% 3% 7% 11% 12% Connectived tissue (Skin, Bone, Breast) 44% 55% 60% 53% 45% 31% 32% 26% 16% 11% Reproductive & Urinary 14% 14% 12% 14% 14% 28% 21% 17% 32% 39% Blood & Lymphatic 16% 8% 6% 7% 8% 21% 16% 14% 10% 9% Brain, nervous system, & endocrine glands 18% 13% 7% 4% 3% 9% 9% 6% 4% 2%

Female Male

Industry Critical Illness Survey 27

Cancer Claims International Comparison

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Australia UK Malaysia China MALE Respiratory/Lung Mouth/Throat/Oesophagus Brain, nervous system, & endocrine glands Connectived tissue (Skin, Bone, Breast) Blood & Lymphatic Digestive Organs Reproductive & Urinary

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Australia UK Malaysia China FEMALE Mouth/Throat/Oesophagus Blood & Lymphatic Respiratory/Lung Brain, nervous system, & endocrine glands Digestive Organs Reproductive & Urinary Connectived tissue (Skin, Bone, Breast)

Thank you! Questions?