Critical Loads Critical Loads Tim Sullivan Tim Sullivan and and - - PDF document

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Critical Loads Critical Loads Critical Loads Critical Loads Tim Sullivan Tim Sullivan and and Jack Cosby Jack Cosby NYSERDA Conference NYSERDA Conference November 2007 November 2007 November, 2007 November, 2007 1 Critical Loads

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Critical Loads Critical Loads

Critical Loads Critical Loads

Tim Sullivan Tim Sullivan and and Jack Cosby Jack Cosby

NYSERDA Conference NYSERDA Conference November 2007 November 2007

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Critical Loads Critical Loads

Background Background – – What are Critical What are Critical Loads? Loads?

  • Definitions, biogeochemical basis, tools,

Definitions, biogeochemical basis, tools, approaches, limitations approaches, limitations

Objectives Objectives – – Why do we want Why do we want (need) Critical Loads? (need) Critical Loads?

  • How do we want to use these tools in the

How do we want to use these tools in the context of natural resource management in context of natural resource management in New York? New York?

Methods Methods – – How are Critical Loads How are Critical Loads calculated? calculated?

  • What is the policy context?

What is the policy context?

  • How can the results be used?

How can the results be used?

Results Results – –

  • Some examples from the United States

Some examples from the United States

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Critical Loads Critical Loads

What is a Critical Load What is a Critical Load – –

The definition: The definition: “ “Estimate of exposure to pollutants below Estimate of exposure to pollutants below which harmful effects on specified which harmful effects on specified sensitive elements of the environment do sensitive elements of the environment do not occur according to present knowledge not occur according to present knowledge” ”

(Nilsson & (Nilsson & Grennfelt Grennfelt, 1988) , 1988)

How was the concept developed? How was the concept developed? Developed in Europe for nitrogen and Developed in Europe for nitrogen and sulfur deposition, used in European sulfur deposition, used in European negotiations to establish emissions control negotiations to establish emissions control standards. standards. Why are Critical Loads used? Why are Critical Loads used? Based on the idea that control strategies Based on the idea that control strategies for acidification and eutrophication in for acidification and eutrophication in Europe should be effects Europe should be effects-

  • driven.

driven.

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Critical Loads Critical Loads

How are Critical Loads of pollutant How are Critical Loads of pollutant deposition determined deposition determined – – the steps: the steps:

  • 2. Identify the
  • 2. Identify the receptors

receptors subject to the disturbance subject to the disturbance (forests, waters, crops, etc.) (forests, waters, crops, etc.)

  • 1. Identify the
  • 1. Identify the disturbance

disturbance produced by atmospheric produced by atmospheric deposition of the pollutants (acidification, deposition of the pollutants (acidification, eutrophication, etc.) eutrophication, etc.) 3. 3. Identify the Identify the biological indicators biological indicators to be protected to be protected within each receptor (individual organism, within each receptor (individual organism, populations, community characteristics, etc) and populations, community characteristics, etc) and determine the determine the critical indicator responses critical indicator responses that define that define biological damage biological damage 4. 4. Identify the Identify the chemical variables chemical variables that control the that control the responses of the biological indicators and determine responses of the biological indicators and determine the the critical chemical limits critical chemical limits at which the critical at which the critical indicator responses occur indicator responses occur 5. 5. Identify the Identify the atmospheric pollutants atmospheric pollutants that control the that control the pertinent chemical variables (SO4, NO3, pertinent chemical variables (SO4, NO3, NH4, NH4,

  • zone, particulates, etc) and determine the
  • zone, particulates, etc) and determine the critical

critical pollutant loads pollutant loads at which the chemical variables at which the chemical variables reach their critical limits reach their critical limits

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Critical Loads Critical Loads

Why do we want Critical Loads? Why do we want Critical Loads?

2. 2. Prevent future acidification and associated harmful Prevent future acidification and associated harmful effects effects

  • example: Adirondack soils and associated

example: Adirondack soils and associated vegetation vegetation 1. 1. Promote recovery to point where harmful effects no Promote recovery to point where harmful effects no longer occur longer occur

  • example: Adirondack lakes, Catskill streams

example: Adirondack lakes, Catskill streams 3. 3. Head off effects associated with future nitrogen Head off effects associated with future nitrogen saturation saturation

  • example: episodic stream acidification

example: episodic stream acidification 4. 4. Integrate knowledge of effects from multiple Integrate knowledge of effects from multiple pollutants pollutants

  • example: NOx, NH

example: NOx, NH4

4, S, Hg

, S, Hg 5. 5. Set targets, develop management goals Set targets, develop management goals

  • example: when have we accomplished recovery?

example: when have we accomplished recovery?

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Critical Loads Critical Loads

Determining Critical Loads Determining Critical Loads – – the the steps steps

1) Disturbance

Acidification Eutrophication

2) Receptor Forest Lake Grassland Lake 3) Biological indicator Sugar Maple Norway Spruce Brook trout Fish species richness Species diversity Primary productivity 4) Chemical variable Soil % Base Saturation Soil Ca/Al ratio Lakewater ANC Lakewater ANC Soil C/N Lakewater NO3 5) Atmospheric pollutant SO4, NO3, NH4 SO4, NO3, NH4 SO4, NO3, NH4 SO4, NO3, NH4 NO3, NH4 NO3, NH4

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Critical Loads Critical Loads

biological indicator response value of chemical variable

Biological Indicator Responses Biological Indicator Responses

Death of organisms Condition of individuals Reproductive success Loss of species Community productivity

Chemical Variables Chemical Variables

ANC, pH, NO3, Al Base saturation, Ca/Al Ozone Annual averages Seasonal extremes

Response Function Response Function

Biological Indicator is a function of Chemical Variable Biological Indicator is a function of Chemical Variable

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Critical Loads Critical Loads

critical chemical limit

biological indicator response value of chemical variable

critical indicator response

Biological Indicator Responses Biological Indicator Responses

Death of organisms Condition of individuals Reproductive success Loss of species Community productivity

Chemical Variables Chemical Variables

ANC, pH, NO3, Al Base saturation, Ca/Al Ozone Annual averages Seasonal extremes

Response Function Response Function

Biological Indicator is a function of Chemical Variable Biological Indicator is a function of Chemical Variable

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Critical Loads Critical Loads

Pollutant Load Pollutant Load

S, N Hg, NOx, SO2 Annual averages Seasonal patterns

Chemical Variables Chemical Variables

ANC, pH, NO3, Al Base saturation, Ca/Al Ozone Annual averages Seasonal extremes

Response Function Response Function

Chemical Variable is a function of Pollutant Load Chemical Variable is a function of Pollutant Load

value of chemical variable pollutant load

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Critical Loads Critical Loads

Pollutant Load Pollutant Load

S, N Hg, Nox, SO2 Annual averages Seasonal patterns

Chemical Variables Chemical Variables

ANC, pH, NO3, Al Base saturation, Ca/Al Ozone Annual averages Seasonal extremes

Response Function Response Function

Chemical Variable is a function of Pollutant Load Chemical Variable is a function of Pollutant Load

value of chemical variable pollutant load

critical chemical limit critical pollutant load

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Critical Loads Critical Loads

Pollutant Load Pollutant Load S, N Hg, NOx, SO2 Annual averages Seasonal patterns Chemical Chemical Variables Variables ANC, pH, NO3, Al Base saturation, Ca/Al Ozone Annual averages Seasonal extremes

Combined Response Function Combined Response Function

Biological Indicator is a function of Pollutant Load Biological Indicator is a function of Pollutant Load

biological indicator response pollutant load

critical indicator response critical pollutant load

Biological Indicator Biological Indicator Responses Responses Death of organisms Condition of individuals Reproductive success Loss of species Community productivity

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Critical Loads Critical Loads

How are Critical Loads of pollutant How are Critical Loads of pollutant deposition determined deposition determined – – some examples some examples

1) Disturbance

Acidification Eutrophication

2) Receptor Forest Lake

Grassland

Lake 3) Biological indicator Sugar Maple Norway Spruce Brook trout Fish species richness Species diversity Primary productivity critical indicator response Failure to reproduce Seedling death Presence absence Species loss Species loss Excess productivity 4) Chemical variable

Soil % Base Saturation

Soil Ca/Al ratio Lakewater ANC Lakewater ANC Soil C/N Lakewater NO3 critical chemical limit 10% 1.0 0 ueq/L 50 ueq/L 20 10 umol/L 5) Atmospheric pollutant SO4, NO3, NH4 SO4, NO3, NH4 SO4, NO3, NH4 SO4, NO3, NH4 NO3, NH4 NO3, NH4 critical pollutant load

??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???

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Critical Loads Critical Loads

How are Critical Loads of pollutant How are Critical Loads of pollutant deposition determined deposition determined – – additional additional considerations considerations

6.

  • 6. Evaluate the effects of spatial heterogeneity

spatial heterogeneity within the receptor on the response functions (geology, soils, landscape morphology, microclimatology, vegetation, etc.) and determine the cumulative resource cumulative resource responses responses for the critical pollutant loads within the receptor

Cumulative Resource Response Cumulative Resource Response to Pollutant Load to Pollutant Load % biological resources damaged = % sites (streams, plots etc.) within receptor for which the biological indicator response exceeds the critical indicator response

% biological resources damaged 0 50 100 pollutant load

  • Critical load for protection
  • f 50% of resources
  • Critical load for protection
  • f 90% of resources
  • Critical load for protection
  • f 95% of resources
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Critical Loads Critical Loads

How are Critical Loads of pollutant How are Critical Loads of pollutant deposition determined deposition determined – – additional additional considerations considerations

  • 7. Evaluate the response time

response time-

  • scales and lags

scales and lags of the biological indicators and chemical variables (soil lags, population dynamics, recruitment, etc.) and differentiate between steady steady-

  • state and dynamic

state and dynamic critical loads critical loads of a pollutant

biological indicator response pollutant load

critical indicator response

biological indicator response pollutant load

critical indicator response dynamic critical load for 2040 dynamic critical load for 2020 steady-state critical pollutant load Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5 Critical load

Pollutant deposition

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5 Critical load

Pollutant deposition t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 t6

DDT: Damage delay time

t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 t6

RDT: Recovery delay time

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Critical Loads Critical Loads

How are Critical Loads of pollutant How are Critical Loads of pollutant deposition determined deposition determined – – additional additional considerations considerations

  • 8. Evaluate the interaction of multiple pollutants

interaction of multiple pollutants producing the same disturbance in a receptor (S and N acidification, NO3 and NH4 eutrophication, etc.) and determine the multi multi-

  • pollutant critical loads

pollutant critical loads at which chemical variables reach their critical limits

1) Disturbance 1) Disturbance Acidification Acidification 2) Receptor 2) Receptor Lake Lake 3) Biological 3) Biological indicator indicator Brook trout Brook trout 4) Chemical 4) Chemical variable variable Lakewater ANC Lakewater ANC 5) Atmospheric 5) Atmospheric pollutant pollutant SO4, NO3, NH4 SO4, NO3, NH4

Some disturbances are driven by the deposition of more than one pollutant because the effects of the pollutants on the chemical variable in the receptor are the same

NO3 deposition SO4 deposition

Line of joint SO4 and NO3 deposition producing a constant value of the chemical variable the critical chemical limit

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Critical Loads Critical Loads

How do Science, Policy and Society Interact How do Science, Policy and Society Interact Concerning Critical Loads? Concerning Critical Loads? We must determine each of the following: We must determine each of the following:

1. 1. Disturbance produced by atmospheric deposition of Disturbance produced by atmospheric deposition of pollutants pollutants 2.

  • 2. Receptors subject to the disturbance

Receptors subject to the disturbance 3. 3. Biological indicators and critical indicator responses Biological indicators and critical indicator responses (social decision) (social decision) 4.

  • 4. Chemical variables and critical chemical limits

Chemical variables and critical chemical limits 5. 5. Atmospheric pollutants and critical pollutant load Atmospheric pollutants and critical pollutant load for different time periods for different time periods 6. 6. Level of protection desired (political/social decision) Level of protection desired (political/social decision) 7. 7. Time at which protection is desired Time at which protection is desired (political/social/economic decision) (political/social/economic decision) 8. 8. Multi Multi-

  • pollutant management approach

pollutant management approach (political/economic decision) (political/economic decision)

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Critical Loads Critical Loads

NC S C GA T N

Great Smoky Nat'l Park

Linville Gorge Wilderness Shining Rock Wilderness Joyce Kilmer - Slickrock Wilderness Cohutta Wilderness

VA KY

10 20 30 40 50 5 Miles

National Forests State Boundaries Class I National Parks and Wilderness Areas ANC Class

< 0 0 - 20 20 - 50 > 50

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Critical Loads Critical Loads

Shenandoah National Park Adirondack Lakes

  • 40
  • 20

20 40 60 80 100 5 10 15 20

Southern Blue Ridge

ANC (ueq/L) Base Saturation (%)

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Critical Loads Critical Loads

Shenandoah National Park Southern Blue Ridge

50 100 150 200 250 300

  • 20

20 40 60 80 100

Recent Stream ANC (ueq/L)

CL for ANC=20 in 2040

CL for ANC= 20 in 2040

Critical Load (kgS/ha/yr) to Protect Against Acidification to ANC=20 ueq/L in the year 2040

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Critical Loads Critical Loads

2040 ANC = 0 ueq/L (n=66) y = 35.207x + 10.231 R2 = 0.9041

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

  • 5

5 10 15

2040 ANC = 20 ueq/L (n=66) y = 31.042x - 7.6776 R2 = 0.9413

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

  • 5

5 10 15

Critical Loads S, kgS/ha/yr 2005 ANC/SO4 ratio

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Critical Loads Critical Loads

Southern Blue Ridge Streams

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Critical Loads Critical Loads

Lake ANC (ueq/L) Soil Base Saturation

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Critical Loads Critical Loads

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10 15

Total Zooplankton Richness versus Lakewater ANC

10 20 30 40 50

  • 50

50 100 150 200 5

  • 50

50 100 150 200 Total Zooplankton R2 = 0.46, n = 111 Crustaceans R2 = 0.47, n = 111 Number of Zooplankton Species

EMAP ELS-II STAR EMAP ELS-II STAR EMAP ELS-II STAR EMAP ELS-II STAR

Acid Neutralizing Capacity (ueq/L)

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Critical Loads Critical Loads