INDONESIAN ENERGY CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH USING AIM: AN UPDATE 13 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Center for Research on Energy Policy

INSTITUT TEKNOLOGI BANDUNG

INDONESIAN ENERGY CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH USING AIM: AN UPDATE

Retno G Dewi, Ucok Siagian, Iwan Hendrawan, Bintang B Yuwono

13 – 15 November 2015 The 21st AIM International Workshop Ohyama Memorial Hall, NIES, Tsukuba, Japan

OUTLINE

• Introduction: Importance of Energy Sector in Indonesian GHG

Emissions

• Brief of Indonesia Modeling Activities Using AIM
• ExSS Low Carbon Development Path of Energy Sector Toward

2050

• End-Use Modeling: Power, Manufacture, Transport,

Residential/Commercial Sector

• CGE Model: Indonesian LCD Toward 2050
• Science-Based Energy Climate Change Policy Recommendations
• GHG Reduction Planning, Mitigation Actions, INDC

IMPORTANCE OF ENERGY SECTOR IN INDONESIAN GHG EMISSIONS

INTRODUCTION

1

Sectors Million ton CO2e Percentage Average annual growth 2000 2012 2000 2012 Energy 298 508 30 35 4.5% IPPU 41 41 4 3 0.1% Agriculture 96 113 10 8 1.3% LULUCF * 505 695 51 48 2.7% Waste 61 97 6 7 4.0% Total 1,001 1,454 3.2% *) including peat fire Source: Draft Indonesia 1st BUR, 2015

Energy 29.8% IPPU 4.1% Agriculture 9.6% LULUCF* 50.5% Waste 6.0%

2000 - 1,001 million ton

Energy 34.9% IPPU 2.8% Agriculture 7.8% LULUCF* 47.8% Waste 6.7%

2012 - 1,454 million ton

*)incl. peat fire

*) incl. peat fire PAST TREND OF GHG EMISSION

Electricity Generation 34% Industry 27%

Transport 26%

Residential 6% Commercial 1% Others 2% Fugitive 4%

Energy 2012 508 mill ton

• 100

200 300 400 500 600 2000 2004 2008 2012

Million ton CO2-eq

Others Commercial Residential Transport Industry Electricity Gen.

Br e akdown of E ne r gy Se c tor E missions

• 100

200 300 400 500 600

Mton CO2 Electricity (Allocation by End Use Sector) Petroluem Products Natural Gas

Combustion Emissions Major sources: coal & oil used in power gen., industry, transport End-use sector: 45% from fuel burning in industry; Emissions from power generation is accounted by building (60%) and industry (40%) sectors.

ExSS , End-Use Modeling, CGE Model

Brief of Indonesia Modeling Activities Using AIM

2

Indonesia Energy Research Team in the AIM activities Indonesia energy team is involved in the development

• f AIM in three models:
• AIM - ExSS Snapshot
• AIM - End-Use
• AIM - CGE

AIM-ExSS Snapshot

ExSS Snapshot model has been employed to develop three models:

• Low Carbon Development Path of Energy Sector Toward

2050 (publication)

• Low Carbon Development of Power Sector (to evaluate the

impact of coal addition to power expansion plan by the state electric utility, submitted to National Council for Climate Change)

• Low Carbon Development in DKI Jakarta (submitted to DKI

Jakarta Government and is being used in the re-evaluation

• f Jakarta’s mitigation plan)
• Result of ExSS snapshot is used as the basis of End-Use

modeling

AIM - ExSS Snapshot

147 387 863

• 100

200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000

2005 2030 BaU 2050 BaU

million toe

Biofuel Geothermal Biomassa Solar & Wind Nuclear Hydropower Gas Oil Coal

117 305 617

• 100

200 300 400 500 600 700

2005 2030 BaU2050 BaU

million toe

Commercial Industry Residential Freight Transport Passanger Transport

Primary energy supply Final energy demand Indonesia energy development projection (used as input for AIM-End Use)

AIM End-Use

In End-Use model, Indonesia energy team is involved in 4 sectors:

• Power
• Industry
• Transport and
• Residential and Commercial

Compared to other energy models AIM End-use model has more detailed feature

• f

sectoral energy technology performance and costs. With such feature the model is expected to have better chance to contribute in the development of Indonesia energy plan (through dialogues with energy planners).

99 367 847 99 226 433 99 157 190 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 CO2 2005 I ND 3 CO2 2030 CO2 2050 BL

• MtCO2e q -

E MS CM1 - MtCO2e q - E MS CM2 - MtCO2e q - E MS

CO2 e missio n in Po we r Se c to r

86.749 244.760 522.981 86.749 190.707 398.518 86.749 154.855 269.026 100 200 300 400 500 600 2005 2030 2050

MtCO2e q

• BL

MtCO2e q

• CM1

MtCO2e q

• CM2

CO2 e missio n in T ra nspo rt Se c to r

Millio n to n CO2e Millio n to n CO2e

AIM End-Use

No te : CM1 – b a se d o n Na tio na l E ne rg y Po lic y Co unc il Sc e na rio a nd e ffic ie nc y me a sure s CM2 – e xte nsive use o f b io fue l a nd mo re inte nsive e ne rg y e ffic ie nc y me a sure s

30.21 101.73 210.38 30.21 66.83 128.45 30.21 66.30 127.19 0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 2005 2030 2050 BL

• MtCO2e q

CM1 - MtCO2e q CM2 - MtCO2e q

CO2 e missio n in Ce me nt I ndustry

5 43 51 5 27 30 5 20 23 10 20 30 40 50 60 2005 2030 2050 BL

• MtCO2e q

CM1 - MtCO2e q CM2 - MtCO2e q

CO2 e missio n in I ro n/ ste e l I ndustry

AIM End-Use

Millio n to n CO2e Millio n to n CO2e

AIM-CGE

• AIM-CGE for Indonesia case combines energy sector with

land based sector (agriculture and forestry)

• Most important feature of the model: to give answer to

questions related to impact of mitigation actions to Indonesia economy (GDP).

• Currently the Indonesian model is still under development.

The latest AIM training workshop has produced some preliminary results.

Significant trend of increase in energy demand over Commercial (7.06%p.a.), Transportation (6.23%) and Industrial (5.11%) sectors. 2005-2010 energy switch from OIL to COAL and GAS. *rate are based on “95-“12 average growth rate

GToe

Implicating to trend of increase in demand on energy, noticing that GoI is planning to transform their energy mix in increasing energy security and achieving climate targets.

so urc e : Pusda tin—E SDM

F INAL E NE RGY DE MAND (“90-“12)

CURRENT ENERGY SITUATION

GToe

GOVE RNME NT E NE RGY MIX PL AN (2025)

2025 2005

In 2005-2025 period, National Energy Policy shows significant energy switch from OIL (red. to 0.36x) to COAL (inc. to 1.7x) and GAS (inc. to 1.41x). In addition, NREs introduction to the energy mix (4.2% to 17% or 4.05x in 2025 compared to 2005). *shift of energy mix during the period has resulted to significant change for the baseline emissions compared to AIM, IDN base scenario data.

PRIMARY E NE RGY MIX (2005 & 2025*pla n)

INDONE SI A

I NDC

Actions Emission Reduction Target 2020-2030 Ambitious Optimistic Fair

Land-use based

policies scenario

750 MtonCO2 in 2030 627 MtonCO2 in 2030 596 MtonCO2 in 2030 Energy sector policies

scenario

393 MtonCO2 in 2030 258 MtonCO2 in 2030 222 MtonCO2 in 2030 Waste sector policies

scenario

45 MtonCO2 in 2030

36 MtonCO2 in 2030 30 MtonCO2 in 2030

The 29% GHG emissions reduction target are planned to be achieved with three different focus-sectors. The following figures are represented in “Dokumen Pendukung Penyusunan INDC Indonesia (Draft 11.08.15) “ *the reduction targets are then adjusted into the model, since the model base data are not re- calibrated with Indonesia current conditions and development plans.

SCE NARIO SE T T INGS

BaU CM INDC–KEN Energy Supply 2005-2010 switch from OIL to COAL and GAS (Power, Industry, Residential). Infrastructure Infrastructure readiness for GAS and ELECTRICITY for Industry, Buildings, and Transport Sectors. *(CM2&3) Higher rate of advanced technology dissemination. New & Renewables High rate of new & renewables introduction, starting 2020. *(CM2&3) Higher rate of introduction, starting 2030. Nuclear Available in 2030 onwards. CCS technology Available in 2025 onwards. GHG Emission Target 2030 afterwards, 29% below baseline.

2005 Base year analysis with projection years until 2050. There are 3 different mitigation scenarios with the following socio-economic assumptions.

0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0%

• 500

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Billion USD

GDP

BaU CM % Difference

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

• 1.00

2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

T

• n

CO2e / 1000 USD

GHG Intensity

Ba U CM %Diffe re nc e

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 50 100 150 200 250 300 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Million Pe ople

Une mplo ye d E mplo ye d % une mplo yme nt

Wo rkfo rc e a nd e mplo yme nt (c o unte r me a sure )

PRIMARY E NE RGY MIX

MToe

Ba U CM

MToe

PRIMARY E NE RGY SUPPL Y MIX

Primary energy mix in BaU has shown higher growth rate of Coal and Gas for fulfilling the high growth of energy demand in Power Generation and Industrial sectors. CM Scenario shows increase in Renewables in the energy mix with most of the development is contributed by Biofuel for transport and other NREs in Power Generation Sector.

MToe

Ba U CM

MToe

F INAL E NE RGY DE MAND, BY SE CT OR

F INAL E NE RGY CONSUMPT ION

BaU: The highest growing energy demand sector are Residential (4.5%p.a) followed by Non- Energy Use (4.43%), Transportation (2.72%), and Industrial (1.9%) sectors.

CM: With energy conservation, reduces energy demand by 0.92x relative to BaU. *The energy conservation measures includes end-use technological devices efficiency improvement.

GHG Re duc tio n

MtCO2eq

The highest contributor is Non-Energy GHG and Land-use mitigation actions (20.06%, 2030BaU). Whilst Energy sector has reduced by (6.99%, 2030BaU, 142.3 MtCO2eq).

GHG Re duc tio n Co st

millions USD

GHG RE DUCT IONS AND COST S

The cost of GHG reductions peaks on 2020-2025 period mostly for fuel-switch to higher priced cleaner-energy source, in addition to NREs and CCS technology dissemination.

Science-Based Energy Climate Change Policy Recommendations

3

Indonesia AIM energy team plans

• In the coming months, Indonesia climate change authority

will prepare assessment and plans for Third National Communication and delineation of INDC.

• In addition, the energy authority will prepare the Master

Plan of Indonesia Energy Development (derived from National Energy Policy Council Scenario).

• Indonesia energy research team plans to contribute to

those activities (through policy dialogues, focus group discussions) by using AIM approaches.

Thank You ucokwrs@yahoo.com gelangdewi@yahoo.com