In Infrastructure In Investment Opportunity an and Re Reform in in Africa Amie ie Calt Calthorpe Marketing& Membership Manager IPFA IPFA Tweet us! @IPFA_ Chatham House Rule applies
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Presenters Steven Hong, Senior Manager, GI Hub Brer Adams, Senior Director, Energy and Infrastructure, GI Hub Tweet us! @IPFA_ | @gi_hub Chatham House Rule applies
• Global Infrastructure Outlook – Forecast infrastructure investment needs and gaps Quantitative forecasts of infrastructure investment • • InfraCompass – Setting infrastructure policies in the right direction • Reveals quality of infrastructure environment Coverage across 10 “Compact with Africa” countries, and others shown below • Angola Ghana Rwanda Benin Guinea Senegal Cote d'Ivoire Kenya South Africa Egypt Morocco Tanzania Ethiopia Nigeria Tunisia GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE HUB July 2018 5
Forecast infrastructure investment needs and gaps for 56 countries and 7 sectors from 2016 to 2040, including 15 African countries How? 1. Estimate current stock based on past investment 2. Forecast likely investment based on drivers 3. Forecast need based on investment performance and quality compared with peers GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE HUB July 2018 6
Infrastructure investment need is driven by economic , population growth , and manufacturing • share of economy Source: GI Hub * Based on population of 56 countries covered by Global Infrastructure Outlook, representing 56 world’s largest countries, ^b ased on UN GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE HUB July 2018 7
Infrastructure investment need is driven by economic , population growth , and manufacturing • share of economy GDP growth Country rank Growth rate p.a 1. Senegal 7.7% 3. Rwanda 6.5% 4. Cote d'Ivoire 6.2% 5. Tanzania 6.0% 7. Ethiopia 5.7% OECD 1.5% Global 2.6% Source: GI Hub * Based on population of 56 countries covered by Global Infrastructure Outlook, representing 56 world’s largest countries, ^b ased on UN GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE HUB July 2018 8
Infrastructure investment need is driven by economic , population growth , and manufacturing • share of economy GDP growth Population growth Country rank Growth rate p.a Country rank Growth rate p.a 1. Senegal 7.7% 1. Angola 2.9% 3. Rwanda 6.5% 2. Tanzania 2.9% 4. Cote d'Ivoire 6.2% 3. Senegal 2.6% 4. Guinea 2.4% 5. Tanzania 6.0% 7. Ethiopia 5.7% 5. Nigeria 2.4% OECD 1.5% OECD ^ 0.4% Global 2.6% Global 0.9% Source: GI Hub * Based on population of 56 countries covered by Global Infrastructure Outlook, representing 56 world’s largest countries, ^b ased on UN GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE HUB July 2018 9
Infrastructure investment need is driven by economic , population growth , and manufacturing • share of economy GDP growth Population growth Manufacturing share change Country rank Change rate p.a Country rank Growth rate p.a Country rank Growth rate p.a 1. Tanzania 0.6% 1. Senegal 7.7% 1. Angola 2.9% 2. Tanzania 2.9% 3. Tunisia 0.3% 3. Rwanda 6.5% 5. Ghana 0.3% 4. Cote d'Ivoire 6.2% 3. Senegal 2.6% 13. Egypt 0.1% 5. Tanzania 6.0% 4. Guinea 2.4% 17. Ethiopia 0.1% 7. Ethiopia 5.7% 5. Nigeria 2.4% OECD ^ 0.4% OECD * (0.1%) OECD 1.5% Global * >(0.1%) Global 2.6% Global 0.9% Source: GI Hub * Based on population of 56 countries covered by Global Infrastructure Outlook, representing 56 world’s largest countries, ^b ased on UN GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE HUB July 2018 10 Source: GI Hub
$USD infrastructure stock per capita 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - Egypt Rwanda Angola Benin Cote d'Ivoire Ethiopia Ghana Guinea Kenya Morocco Nigeria Senegal South Africa Tanzania Tunisia Stock as at 2015 GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE HUB July 2018 11
$USD infrastructure stock per capita 5,000 Global average $4,591 4,000 Upper middle income Average - $3,061 3,000 2,000 Low income to 1,000 lower middle income Average - $704 - Egypt Rwanda Angola Benin Cote d'Ivoire Ethiopia Ghana Guinea Kenya Morocco Nigeria Senegal South Africa Tanzania Tunisia Stock as at 2015 GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE HUB July 2018 12
$USD infrastructure stock per capita 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Incremental stock - Current trends 1,000 - Stock as at 2015 Angola Benin Cote d'Ivoire Egypt Ethiopia Ghana Guinea Kenya Morocco Nigeria Rwanda Senegal South Africa Tanzania Tunisia GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE HUB July 2018 13
$USD infrastructure stock per capita 5,000 4,000 3,000 Incremental stock - Investment need 2,000 Incremental stock 1,000 - Current trends - Angola Benin Cote d'Ivoire Egypt Ethiopia Ghana Guinea Kenya Morocco Nigeria Rwanda Senegal South Africa Tanzania Tunisia Stock as at 2015 GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE HUB July 2018 14
$USD infrastructure shortfall stock per capita 2,000 1,000 Investment gap - Angola Benin Egypt Ethiopia Ghana Guinea Kenya Morocco Nigeria Rwanda Senegal South Africa Tanzania Tunisia Cote d'Ivoire GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE HUB July 2018 15
100 150 200 250 $USD Bn 2016 – 2040 cumulative 50 - GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE HUB Angola Benin Cote d'Ivoire Egypt Ethiopia Ghana Guinea Kenya Morocco Nigeria Rwanda Senegal South Africa Tanzania Tunisia Investment gap July 2018 16
$USD Bn 2016 – 2040 cumulative 250 200 150 Road Electricity 100 Water 50 Telecoms Rest - Benin Egypt Angola Cote d'Ivoire Ethiopia Ghana Guinea Kenya Morocco Nigeria Rwanda Senegal South Africa Tanzania Tunisia GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE HUB July 2018 17
Forecast investment gap for Ethiopia $USD Bn 2016 – 2040 cumulative 3 13 Telecoms Water $USD $USD stock per person stock per person 2015 $31 2015 $404 74 2040 - 2040 - 64 $138 $592 Current Trends Current Trends 2040 - Needed $389 2040 - Needed $837 % Gap 65% % Gap 29% Road Electricity Water Telecoms Rest GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE HUB July 2018 18
Forecast investment gap for Egypt $USD Bn 2016 – 2040 cumulative - 5 Water Road $USD $USD 49 stock per person stock per person 2015 $107 2015 $105 - 2040 - 2040 - $175 $183 Current Trends Current Trends 2040 - Needed $403 2040 - Needed $1,009 177 % Gap 57% % Gap 82% Road Electricity Water Telecoms Rest GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE HUB July 2018 19
Road Rail, airport and port $USD $USD stock per person Forecast investment gap for Nigeria stock per person $USD Bn 2016 – 2040 cumulative 2015 $267 2015 $163 2040 - 2040 - $225 $353 Current Trends Current Trends 29 2040 - Needed $281 2040 - Needed $514 84 % Gap 20% % Gap 31% 47 Telecoms Electricity $USD $USD stock per person stock per person 2015 $153 2015 $259 - 2040 - 2040 - $157 61 $378 Current Trends Current Trends 2040 - Needed $237 2040 - Needed $485 Road Electricity Water Telecoms Rest % Gap 34% % Gap 22% GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE HUB July 2018 20
• Africa needs $6.0 trillion, but is forecast to invest $4.3 trillion based on current trends – 28% gap 350 300 250 $USD Billions 200 150 100 50 0 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 Current trends Investment need GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE HUB July 2018 21
Current access levels for African * countries 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 55% 45% 20% 36% 10% 0% Electricity Water Sanitation supply * 15 African countries covered by Global Infrastructure Outlook GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE HUB July 2018 22
Current access levels for African * countries Africa Infrastructure investment forecasts $USD Bn 2016 - 2040 100% 9,000 90% 8,000 80% 7,000 70% 6,011 6,000 60% 5,000 4,338 50% 4,000 40% 3,000 30% 55% 45% 2,000 20% 36% 1,000 10% - 0% Current trends Investment need Investment need Electricity Water Sanitation + SDGs supply * 15 African countries covered by Global Infrastructure Outlook GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE HUB July 2018 23
Current access levels for African * countries Africa Infrastructure investment forecasts $USD Bn 2016 - 2040 100% 9,000 90% 7,642 8,000 80% Electricity 7,000 70% 6,011 Water 6,000 60% 5,000 50% 4,338 4,000 40% 3,000 30% 55% 45% 2,000 20% 36% 1,000 10% - 0% Current trends Investment need Investment need Electricity Water Sanitation + SDGs supply * 15 African countries covered by Global Infrastructure Outlook GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE HUB July 2018 24
Approx. 50% increase in investment need between 2016 – 2030 to meet SDGs by 2030 • 450 400 350 $USD Billions 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 Current trends Investment need inc. SDGs Investment need GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE HUB July 2018 25
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