IMPLICATIONS OF THE DECLINING HEALTH SECTOR SPENDING IN 8/23/2018 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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IMPLICATIONS OF THE DECLINING HEALTH SECTOR SPENDING IN 8/23/2018 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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IMPLICATIONS OF THE DECLINING HEALTH SECTOR SPENDING IN 8/23/2018 UGANDA By The Ugandan Delegation Parliamentary Budget Office-Uganda 23 rd August 2018 3 rd AN-PBO Conference 1 Situation Analysis Demographic Variable Proportion Projected

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IMPLICATIONS OF THE DECLINING HEALTH SECTOR SPENDING IN UGANDA

By The Ugandan Delegation Parliamentary Budget Office-Uganda 23rd August 2018 3rd AN-PBO Conference

8/23/2018

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Situation Analysis

Demographic Variable Proportion Projected Population (2015) Total population 100% 35,756,800 Males Females 48.6% 51.4% 17,377,805 17,915,056 Children under 1 year 4.3% 1,537,542 Children under 5 years 17.7% 6,328,954 Children below 18 years 55.1% 19,701,996 Adolescents and youth (young people) (10 – 24 years) 34.8% 12,443,366 Expected pregnancies 5% 1,787,840 Women of reproductive age(15-49 years) 20.2% 7,222,874

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Situation Analysis-Cont…

Key interventions:

  • Scaled up immunization, including introduction
  • f the pneumococcal vaccine
  • Increased use of Long Lasting Insecticide Treated

Nets (LLINs),

  • Elimination of mother to-child transmission of

HIV (eMTCT), and

  • Improved water and sanitation.
  • Training programs for skilled birth attendants

and other health workers launched by the MoH

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Situation Analysis-Cont…

Trends In Newborn, Infant And Child Mortality In Uganda per 1000 live births

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Sector Objectives

The overall strategic direction for the sector is provided by the strategic objectives of the HSDP namely;

  • To contribute to production of a healthy human capital for wealth

creation through provision of equitable, safe and sustainable health services.

  • To address the key determinants of health through strengthening

inter-sectoral collaboration and partnerships.

  • To increase financial risk protection of households against

impoverishment due to health expenditures.

  • To enhance the health sector competitiveness in the region and

globally.

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Health Spending in Uganda

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660.00 799.11 852.20 1127.48 1281.14 1270.80 1837.90 1826.10 1702.20 1565.00 1353.801332.90 0.00 200.00 400.00 600.00 800.00 1000.00 1200.00 1400.00 1600.00 1800.00 2000.00 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22

FY 2010/11 – FY 2015/16 and FY 2016/17 - 2021/22 (Ushs. bn)

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Health Spending as a percentage of GDP

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1.05% 1.92% 1.78% 1.61% 1.29% 0.99% 0.86% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22

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Budget Proposals for the Health Sector

Over the Medium Term (shs. bn)

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Category 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Wage 373.0 384.1 400.8 418.4 436.9 456.4 Non-wage 394.7 397.8 471.3 516.4 591.0 591.0 Domestic Devt 142.8 101.5 125.6 146.4 171.5 171.5 External Devt 903.1 912.7 681.1 457.2 124.9 82.4 Arrears 4.2 7.9

  • AiA

19.1 21.1 22.5 25.4 28.5 30.5 Total 1,837.9 1,826.1 1,702.2 1,565.0 1,353.8 1,332.9 Total Exp / GDP 1.92% 1.78% 1.61% 1.29% 0.99% 0.86%

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Assumption and Questions

Assumption:

  • There is a reduction in funding to the health sector by 7.47%

(nominal) 14.54% (real), on annual average over the medium term. Questions:

  • What is the implication of declining funding to the Health Sector?
  • What happens to Labour Productivity, Real GDP, Employment and

Capital Stock in the Country?

  • Which Sectors will be affected and to what extent?

What happens?

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Methodology

  • Utilized the Integrated Macroeconomic Model for Uganda
  • Macro and Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models
  • Macro-Model to obtain a set of forecast results over a chosen

time horizon

  • CGE model with Economic Agents (Producers, Investors,

Household, Export, Government and Stocks)

  • CGE model with 72 commodities,
  • CGE model to create and run a baseline simulation
  • Using the CGE model, run a policy simulation incorporating

the baseline features and a policy shock

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Payment flows in CGE model (simplified)

Activities Product Markets Factor Markets Rest of the World Households Government Sav./Inv.

Factor Costs Wages & Rents Intermediate Input Cost Domestic Sales Private Consumption Taxes Domestic Private Savings Government Consumption

  • Gov. Savings

Investment Demand Imports Exports Foreign Savings Transfers Foreign Transfers

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Impact on the Economy

Percentage Change - Wages and Employment (Health Sector)

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Impact on the Economy –Cont.…

Percentage Change - Real GDP, Employment and Capital Stock

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Impact on the Economy –Cont.…

Employment in selected 8 sectors

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Conclusion

  • The health sector in Uganda has registered significant progress

based on outcome indicators, however, sustainability of this progress will depend on how government sustains public investments and interventions that have propelled the country towards this progress.

  • Any decline in the productivity in the health sector has

consequences in other sectors like Agriculture, Oil and Gas, and Manufacturing, as switches to construction and mining sectors.

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