Declining Birth-to-K ratios: A case study of five elementary - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Declining Birth-to-K ratios: A case study of five elementary - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Declining Birth-to-K ratios: A case study of five elementary attendance areas in South Seattle Rebekah Ogimachi, Enrollment Planning Intern Summer 2019 TOPIC | Why study birth-to-K? Birth-to-K ratio refers to the ratio of Kindergarten

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SLIDE 1

Declining Birth-to-K ratios:

A case study of five elementary attendance areas in South Seattle

Rebekah Ogimachi, Enrollment Planning Intern Summer 2019

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SLIDE 2
  • Birth-to-K ratio refers to the ratio of

Kindergarten enrollments to births from five years previous, in a given area.

  • One factor used to project K enrollment
  • Interest for this project started with
  • bserving a negative trend in birth-to-

K on a district level

  • District rate is declining, the overall

change is still relatively minor.

  • In “outlier” attendance areas, what

are trends in birth-to-K rates indicative of?

TOPIC | Why study birth-to-K?

0.6 0.62 0.64 0.66 0.68 0.7 0.72 0.74 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

SPS Birth-to-K (2010-2018)

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SLIDE 3

ATTENDANCE AREAS| Criteria

  • This case study focuses on the

five elementary attendance areas whose birth-to-K ratios decreased the most from 2014- 2018:

  • Dunlap
  • Concord Int’l
  • MLK Jr
  • Roxhill
  • John Muir.

Elementary AAs with Greatest Decline in Birth-to-K Ratios (2014-2018)

Attendance Area 5-year change Dunlap

  • 42.8%

Concord Int'l

  • 35.6%

Martin Luther King Jr

  • 28.7%

Roxhill

  • 28.5%

John Muir

  • 28.2%

Genesee Hill

  • 20.7%

West Seattle

  • 20.7%

Sand Point

  • 19.5%

Laurelhurst

  • 19.4%

Highland Park

  • 18.0%
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SLIDE 4

ATTENDANCE AREAS| Regional Placement

  • Southeast
  • John Muir
  • MLK Jr.
  • Dunlap
  • Southwest
  • Roxhill
  • Concord Int’l
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SLIDE 5

ATTENDANCE AREAS| Initial Comparison

  • Attendance areas range from

346 to 531 students

  • SPS elementary attendance areas

have 458 students on average

  • Attendance areas are less White

than SPS elementary students

  • verall.
  • Hispanic is largest proportion:

Concord, Roxhill

  • Black is largest proportion:

Dunlap, MLK, Muir

61 108 53 181 33 80 69 205 56 192 78 243 57 117 232 72 117 45 47 33 16 32 31 49 2 4 9 2 7 2 3 4 10 5 3 219 17 48 32 79 104

AV ER AG E DUNL AP C O NC O R D ML K R O XH IL L MUIR

ATTENDANCE AREAS COMPARED TO AVERAGE K-5 AA (2014)

Asian Black Hispanic Multi-Race Native American Pac Island White

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SLIDE 6

QUESTION| What does declining birth-to-K tell us?

  • All have significantly declining

birth-to-K rates, but what are these rates telling us?

  • Looked at:
  • Enrollment numbers over time
  • Trends in birth-to-K retention

versus family movement in and out

  • Shifting racial demographics
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SLIDE 7

5-YEAR COMPARISON| Enrollment over time

  • Dunlap and MLK:
  • Sharp decline in 2015, haven’t

bounced back

  • Both in SE
  • Muir:
  • Gradual decline
  • Concord and Roxhill:
  • No obvious trend upward or

downward

  • Both in SW
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SLIDE 8

Three Subgroups| Matching Births and Kindergarten

Enrollments by Address

Three groups were identified within each focus area:

  • A. Births without Kindergarten

enrollments

  • B. Births with Kindergarten

enrollments

  • C. Kindergarten enrollments

without corresponding birth records

A C B

Births Kindergarteners

Orange : Blue = birth-to-K rate 50K : 100B = .5 = 50%

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SLIDE 9

5-YEAR COMPARISON| Births without K Enrollment

  • Increased by an average of 6

students

  • Increased by an average of 4%
  • Suggests that movement out or
  • pting out may be slightly

increasing, but not true for Muir and Roxhill.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

% OF BIRTHS WITHOUT K ENROLL

Dunlap Concord MLK Roxhill Muir

A

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

# OF BIRTHS WITHOUT K ENROLL

Dunlap Concord MLK Roxhill Muir

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SLIDE 10

5-YEAR COMPARISON| Births with K Enrollments B

  • Decreased by an average of 2 students
  • Decreased by an average of 6%
  • MLK and Dunlap make up most of this

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

% OF ACTUAL BIRTHS RESULTING IN K ENROLL

Dunlap Concord MLK Roxhill Muir

% of Births with a K Enrollment 5-year Change

Dunlap

  • 14%

Concord

  • 5%

MLK

  • 12%

Roxhill

  • 2%

Muir 1%

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SLIDE 11

5-YEAR COMPARISON| Kindergarteners without Births

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

% OF K ENROLL WITHOUT BIRTHS

Dunlap Concord MLK Roxhill Muir

  • Decreased by an average of 11%
  • Every area saw a decrease
  • Decreased by an average of 20

students

  • Change in this group (C) is contributing

the most to declining Birth-to-K rates

  • f the three

C

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

# OF K ENROLL WITHOUT BIRTH

Dunlap Concord MLK Roxhill Muir

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SLIDE 12

5-YEAR COMPARISON| Demographic Shifts (Proportions)

  • MLK, Dunlap, and Roxhill

all see at least one demographic shift exceeding 10%

  • Roxhill’s significant shifts

come despite fairly steady enrollment

  • Only Roxhill increases in

its proportion of White students

12%

  • 2%
  • 13%
  • 3%
  • 4%
  • 2%
  • 8%
  • 2%

12%

  • 1%

4%

  • 2%
  • 8%
  • 8%
  • 4%
  • 10%

0% 0% 5% 7% 2% 3% 2% 3%

  • 1%
  • 1%

0% 0%

  • 1%

0% 0% 1%

  • 1%

0% 1% 0% 0% 4% 3% 11%

  • 2%

2% DUNL AP C O NC O R D ML K R O XH IL L MUIR SPS

CHANGE IN PERCENTAGE OF ENROLLMENT (2014-2018)

Asian Black Hispanic Multi-Race Native American Pac Island White

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SLIDE 13

5-YEAR COMPARISON| Demographic Shifts (Student Numbers)

  • Across the five attendance areas in

total, 534 fewer Asian, Black, or Hispanic students were enrolled in 2018 than in 2014.

  • The only groups whose numbers

increased over the five areas as a whole are White and Multi-race

  • Though Dunlap’s proportion of Asian

students and MLK’s proportion of Black students increased, actual numbers of these students in these areas decreased.

  • 120
  • 100
  • 80
  • 60
  • 40
  • 20

20 40 60 Dunlap Concord MLK Roxhill Muir

CHANGE IN NUMBER OF STUDENTS (2014-2018)

Asian Black Hispanic Multi-Race Native American Pac Island White

Total change Asian

  • 165

Black

  • 181

Hispanic

  • 188

Multi-Race 41 Native American -12 Pac Island

  • 2

White 22 Net total

  • 485
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SLIDE 14

5-YEAR COMPARISON| 5 Attendance Areas vs. SPS Average (2018)

  • At the end of the five-year period,

how do our five areas now stack up against the SPS K-5 “average”?

  • All five areas are now smaller in

enrollment than the average AA.

  • The five areas are still less White
  • verall, but Roxhill now has more

White students than any other race.

55 105 46 70 24 45 64 105 46 158 75 209 54 49 199 30 83 34 66 38 47 27 44 46 2 5 1 2 2 2 2 7 4 5 6 227 11 66 30 121 74

AV ER AG E DUNL AP C O NC O R D ML K R O XH IL L MUIR

ATTENDANCE AREAS COMPARED TO AVERAGE K-5 SPS AA (2018)

Asian Black Hispanic Multi-Race Native American Pac Island White

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SLIDE 15

NEXT STEPS | Opportunities for Future Research

  • Comparing with other areas of

Seattle

  • Incorporating housing types of

births vs. kindergarten enrollments

  • Comparing housing price growth

in attendance areas vs. rest of Seattle

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SLIDE 16

Thank you!

Enrollment Planning enrollmentplanning@seattleschools.org