Implications of Climate Change for Regional Air Pollution, Health - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Implications of Climate Change for Regional Air Pollution, Health Effects and Energy Consumption Behavior: Selected Emissions Results* Yihsu Chen Benjamin F. Hobbs Department of Geography & Environmental Engineering Whiting School of Engineering The Johns Hopkins University Baltimore, MD 21218 USA *Sponsored by USEPA STAR Grant Grant R82873101

Outline • Project components • Health effects of pollution emission from utilities sector • Climate change effects analyzed • Analytical framework • Results

The project involves four modeling efforts: – Hourly Electricity Load Modeling and Forecasting (GWU) – Electricity Generation and Dispatch Modeling – Regional Air Pollution Modeling – Health Effects Characterization

Significant Public Health Threats of Emissions from Utility Sector • In US, utility sector accounts for 22% and 67% of total emission of NO x and SO 2 emission (NET, 2002) • Reactions of primary pollutants (NO x and SO 2 ) with other chemicals forming secondary pollutants, i.e., PM 10 , PM 2.5 and O 3 , which pose substantial threats to public health – Every 10 ppb increase in daily maximal ozone concentration results in the death of all causes (except accidents) increases by 0.36% (Thurston et al. 99) and 0.41% (Samet et al. 2000) – Every 100ppb increase in the previous week O 3 leads to an increase of 0.52% and 0.64% in daily mortality rate and cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, respectively (Bell et al. 2005)

Climate Change Effects Analyzed Mobile Sources Power Sector Air Pollutant Health Transport & Effects Transformation Other Point Sources Biogenic Sources

Climate Change Effects Analyzed Wind, temperature, humidity changes CLIMATE CHANGE Demand: Ozone alerts higher summer, Mobile lower winter Sources Demand Long run demand - Power Lower capacity mix Sector capacity & interactions Air Pollutant Health efficiency Transport & Effects Transformation Generator Efficiency, Other Capacity Point Sources Biogenic VOC changes Biogenic Sources

Effects of Climate Change on Components of Power System Short Run Effects Long Run Adaptations ∆ Use of equipment ∆ Mix of equipment Power Demands: (e.g., air conditioner (e.g., #, size of air hours) conditioners) ∆ Thermal capacity & ∆ Mix of generators Generator Characteristics: efficiency (e.g., Carnot) ; (fuel sources, ∆ Water supply peak vs. baseload) Result: Changes in Amounts, Timing, & Location of Emissions

The Largest Emissions Uncertainty: Size of Emissions Cap and New Source Review Policy Alternative NO x Cap Proposals 4.5 4 3.5 ?? NOx: Base Case 3 NOx: S. 843 (Jeffords) MTons/Yr 2.5 NOx: EPA Interstate Air 2 Quality Rule 1.5 NOx: S. 366 (Carper) 1 Source: www.rff.org 0.5 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year

Alternative SO 2 Cap Proposals 10 9 8 SO2: Title IV 7 ?? 6 SO2: S. 843 (Carper) MTons/Yr 5 SO2: EPA Interstate Air Quality Rule 4 SO2: S. 366 (Jeffords) 3 Source: www.rff.org 2 1 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year Given a cap, climate warming: might alter distribution of emissions over year (2 nd order compared to cap size?) • • will increase electricity generation and emissions control costs

PJM Interconnection •Largest wholesale electricity market in the world •Power from coal, oil, gas, nuclear and hydroelectric resources 8.7% of US Population 7.5% of Peak Demand 7.5% of Energy Use 7.8% of Capacity PJM East

Simulation of Power Sector Emission Responses • First, Short-run analysis: – fixed generation capacity – short-run load response to temperature Impact of 2 o F warming upon PJM market: • – Year 2000 demands – 879 generating units (from EPA, DOE data bases) – Year 2000 ozone season, with detail on ozone episode Aug. 7-9, 2000 • Assumptions: – Statistical models of electricity demand • as f (day, hour, lagged demand, temp) – Thermal plant efficiency from literature, Carnot calculations, e.g., • Gas turbine heat rate increases 0.07% / 1 o F increase • Steam plants heat rate increases 0.06% / 1 o F increase – Capacity using reported winter and summer capacities: • Average 0.23% decrease / 1 o F increase

Simulation Summary •Approach: LP Market simulation (perfect competition) – Generators compete to sell electricity, subject to markets for NO x allowances and transmission – Considers existing generating units load, NO x cap (SIP call), and transmission network (Kirchhoff’s Voltage and Current Laws) – Hourly simulation of Aug. 7-9; ten-period approximation for remainder of season •Results for entire season: – 4.3% increase in average hourly demand in ozone season – No change in total NO x (due to cap) – Fuel cost increases: – 21% due to load increase alone – 0.4% due to generator efficiency decrease – 22% total

2 o F Increase: Electricity Demand & Generator Performance Impacts Aug. 7-9, 2000 Generator Performance Base Case Impact Alone Tons NO x Tons SO x $M FuelCost Tons NO x Tons SO x $M FuelCost 2,691 9,220 35 +0.076% -0.001% +0.25% +5.1% Demand Impact Alone Tons NO x Tons SO x $M FuelCost +5.0% +5.5% +19.9%

2 o F Increase: Electricity Demand & Generator Performance Impacts Aug. 7-9, 2000 Generator Performance Base Case Impact Alone Tons NO x Tons SO x $M FuelCost Tons NO x Tons SO x $M FuelCost 2,691 9,220 35 +0.076% -0.001% +0.25% Joint +5.1% Demand Generator & Demand Impact Impact Alone Tons NO x Tons SO x $M FuelCost Tons NO x Tons SO x $M FuelCost +4.9% +5.4% +20.3% +5.0% +5.5% +19.9%

Total PJM Load, Aug. 7-9 ( ∆ Load= +5.1% due to 2 o F increase) Base Case Climate Change Case 50000 40000 Load [MW] 30000 20000 0 20 40 60 Time over 3-day Episode [HR]

PJM Emissions, Aug. 7-9 ( ∆ NO x = +4.9%; ∆ SO 2 = +5.4%) 70 Base Case Base Case Climate Change Case Climate Change Case 200 60 50 NOx Emission [tons] SO2 Emission [tons] 150 40 30 100 20 10 50 � ∆ NO x during day; ∆ SO 2 both day and night 0 20 40 60 0 20 40 60 Time over 3-day Episode [HR] Time over 3-day Episode [HR]

State-Level Emission Impact, Aug. 7-9 500 60 +3.3% 50 400 +6.3% +4.0% NOX Emission Impact [tons] 40 SO2 Emission Impact [tons] 300 30 200 20 +3.5% +10.1% 100 +25.7% 10 +25.4% +1.2% 0 0 DE MD NJ PA DE MD NJ PA � ∆ NO x in southern part of region; ∆ SO 2 in eastern (populous) part

Long-Run Analysis • Shifts in electricity demand distributions as a result of changes in air conditioner penetration and use in residential and commercial sectors (NEMS Electricity Market Model demand modules) • Shifts in generation mix as a result of changes in generator efficiencies and load shapes (peakier loads imply proportionally more combustion turbines) • Sitting scenarios for emissions sources in Mid-Atlantic/Midwest region

Long Run Emission Responses in PJM • Impact of 2 o F warming upon Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland (PJM) market, using 2025 projected demands and generation mix – Unretired existing units – Year 2025 ozone season, with detail on ozone episode Aug. 7-9, 2025 • Assumptions: – Future capacity mixture • Screening curve analyses using NEMS data, subject to existing units • Impose generation proportions in LP siting & dispatch model – Like Short Run Model: considers NO x future cap, transmission network (Kirchhoff’s Voltage and Current Laws) – Hypothetical electricity demand • Higher increment in peak period and lower in off peak period with an average of 5% – Thermal plant efficiency and capacity losses (as in short run)

2025 Load Duration Curve 100 Average 5% 80 60 Load [GW] 40 20 2 F Load Normal Load 2000 Load 0 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 Hours

Simulation Summary •Load blocks: –Hourly simulation of Aug. 7-9 –Ten-period approximation for remainder of season –Ten-period approximation for nonozone season •Results for entire ozone season: –5.4% increase in average demand in ozone season –No change in total NO x (due to cap) –Fuel cost increases: –5.7% due to load increase alone –5.8% total, including efficiency losses

Normal Load Three-day Episode Load 60 2F Load Hours of Aug. 7-9, Avg Load Increase 8.6% 40 20 0 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 Load [GW]

Three-day Episode NO x Emission Profile 100 Base Total NOx Emission [tons] 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 Hours of Aug. 7-9, Avg Load Increase 8.6%

Next Steps - Regional Air Pollution Modeling • Incorporation of synthetic met observations into MM5 (within Models-3) and produce future load scenarios • Execute climate change-driven scenarios to produce ozone concentration field • Estimate health impact based on epidemiological dose- response relationships