Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

• Ing. Daniele Norbiato

River Basin Authority Alto Adriatico Hydropredict 2010: Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources in TRUST (LIFE + 2007) project

Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources in TRUST (LIFE + 2007) project

Michele Ferri, Daniele Norbiato, Martina Monego, Francesco Baruffi River Basin Authority Alto Adriatico (Venice, Italy) Alberto Galli - SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria (Padua, Italy) Silvio Gualdi, Edoardo Bucchignani - The Euro- Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change CMCC (Bologna, Italy)

Prague, 22.09.2010

HydroPredict’ 2010

2nd International Interdisciplinary Conference on Predictions for Hydrology, Ecology, and Water Resources Management

20-23 September 2010, Prague, Czech Republic

• Ing. Daniele Norbiato

River Basin Authority Alto Adriatico Hydropredict 2010: Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources in TRUST (LIFE + 2007) project

1

• 1. Introduction
• 2. Climatic model
• 3. Hydrological model
• 4. Drought mitigation strategies
• 5. Conclusions

Introduction Climatic model Hydrological model Conclusions Drought mitigation strategies

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• Ing. Daniele Norbiato

River Basin Authority Alto Adriatico Hydropredict 2010: Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources in TRUST (LIFE + 2007) project

BENEFICIARY AND COORDINATOR: River Basin Authority Alto Adriatico PARTNERS: European-Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change(CMCC) SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria S.p.A. (SGI) Project funded by European Commission Under The Life+ Programme 2007 Ministry For The Environment And The Land And Sea

Tool for Regional – scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change

(Gen 2009- Dec 2011)

Introduction Climatic model Hydrological model Conclusions Drought mitigation strategies

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• Ing. Daniele Norbiato

River Basin Authority Alto Adriatico Hydropredict 2010: Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources in TRUST (LIFE + 2007) project

TRUST project

ISSUES

• Groundwater in the Upper Plain of Veneto and

Friuli Regions have been exploited for decades for agricultural and industrial and waterworks uses

• In recent years, aquifers, affected by growing water

demand, showed a significant lowering

• f

groundwater levels and artesian depressurisation Art.4 WFD 2000/60/CE: “Member States shall protect, enhance and restore all bodies of groundwater, ensure a balance between abstraction and recharge of groundwater, with the aim of achieving good groundwater status”

GENERAL OBJECTIVES

• Incorporate climate change scenarios in the river basin management in

accordance with WFD 2000/60/CE

• Examine issues related to the development of water management

strategies at river basin scale (WFD) in relation to the CC scenarios

Introduction Climatic model Hydrological model Conclusions Drought mitigation strategies

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• Ing. Daniele Norbiato

River Basin Authority Alto Adriatico Hydropredict 2010: Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources in TRUST (LIFE + 2007) project

Evaluation of objectives and measures for artificial aquifer recharge – MAR (Managed Aquifer Recharge) CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS Geo-Database designed to characterize the underground aquifers (and the related balance terms) to regional scale Hydrological geomorphoclimatic model

(river basin analysis)

Model simulating the unsaturated zone & water used by crops (Remote sensing – land use mapping) Groundwater balance model (MIKE SHE)

Tool for large scale groundwater balance

THECNICAL BOARD(stakeholders) 5 /24

Introduction Climatic model Hydrological model Conclusions Drought mitigation strategies

• Ing. Daniele Norbiato

River Basin Authority Alto Adriatico Hydropredict 2010: Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources in TRUST (LIFE + 2007) project

PIAVE BRENTA TAGLIAMENTO

TRUST project Area

Acquired Data: 250 meteorological, 21 nivometric, 60 hydrometric stations Monitoring period: 1/1/2000 – 31/12/2008

TORRE BACCHIGLIONE LIVENZA

HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE MODEL GROUNDWATER BALANCE MODEL

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Introduction Climatic model Hydrological model Conclusions Drought mitigation strategies

River basins TRUST project area

• Ing. Daniele Norbiato

River Basin Authority Alto Adriatico Hydropredict 2010: Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources in TRUST (LIFE + 2007) project

2

• 1. Introduction
• 2. Climatic model
• 3. Hydrological model
• 4. Drought mitigation strategies
• 5. Conclusions

Introduction Climatic model Hydrological model Conclusions Drought mitigation strategies

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• Ing. Daniele Norbiato

River Basin Authority Alto Adriatico Hydropredict 2010: Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources in TRUST (LIFE + 2007) project

INGV

GLOBAL ATMOSPHERE MODEL (dynamics, physics, prescribed gases

and aerosols) ECHAM5 T159 ~ 80 Km and 31 vert. levels

Roeckner et al. 2003

GLOBAL OCEAN & SEA-ICE MODEL

.

OPA/ORCA2 2º ~200 Km 31 vert, levels

Madec et al. (1998).

.

LOUVAIN-LA-NEUVE SEA- ICE MODEL

Timmermann et al. (1999)

MEDITERRANEAN SEA MODEL

NEMO/MFS 1/16° ~ 7 Km 71 vert. levels Oddo et al. (2009)

The CMCC-MED MODEL: a global climate model with a fully resolved interactive Mediterranean Sea developed in the framework of CIRCE (EU-FP7)

COUPLER

OASIS 3 Valcke (2006)

Heat, Water and Momentum Flux SST and Sea-ice

T, S, u, v, η

Heat, Water and Momentum Flux SST Coupling atmosphere-oceans every 2 hours Coupling global ocean-Mediterranean Sea every 8 hours

Introduction Climatic model Hydrological model Conclusions Drought mitigation strategies

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• Ing. Daniele Norbiato

River Basin Authority Alto Adriatico Hydropredict 2010: Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources in TRUST (LIFE + 2007) project

(2 -20 E; 40 - 52 N)

The COSMO CLM model

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• climate simulations of the 2nd

part of the 20th Century (1951- 2000) validated with observed data (2mTemp and precipitation)

• During the 20th Century period
• f the simulations the distribution

and concentration of the atmospheric greenhouse gases and aerosol have been prescribed from observations

• projections for the 21st Century

(2001-2100)

• During the 21st Century period,

two scenario simulations have been performed, according to the A2 and A1B IPCC-SRES Orography of the area

Introduction Climatic model Hydrological model Conclusions Drought mitigation strategies

• Ing. Daniele Norbiato

River Basin Authority Alto Adriatico Hydropredict 2010: Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources in TRUST (LIFE + 2007) project

Introduction Climatic model Hydrological model Conclusions Drought mitigation strategies

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(A1B) scenario

The Climate Change Projections in the TRUST Region: possible

changes in 2m TEMPERATURE, PRECIPITATION and EVAPORATION

Differences in precipitation, evaporation (%)

(2071-2100) vs (1971-2000)

Differences in temperature (°C)

• The changes in simulated evaporation and temperature show the same positive sign
• The surface temperature shows a rather uniform increase in all seasons of about 4°C
• The areal precipitation increases of more than 20% during winter and decreases in all
• ther seasons

• Ing. Daniele Norbiato

River Basin Authority Alto Adriatico Hydropredict 2010: Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources in TRUST (LIFE + 2007) project

3

• 1. Introduction
• 2. Climatic model
• 3. Hydrological model
• 4. Drought mitigation strategies
• 5. Conclusions

Introduction Climatic model Hydrological model Conclusions Drought mitigation strategies

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• Ing. Daniele Norbiato

River Basin Authority Alto Adriatico Hydropredict 2010: Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources in TRUST (LIFE + 2007) project

Network extraction from DEM Snow melt module Reservoirs management module Outflows propagation module (geomorphoclimatic)

Automatic calibration module

Inflows –

• utflows

transformation module

Spatial interpolation

• f climatic

variables (kriging)

Calculation modules of the hydrological balance model

Introduction Climatic model Hydrological model Conclusions Drought mitigation strategies

31/05/2001 31/01/2001 31/03/2001

j R Rub L I E

BALANCE EQUATION: S(t+∆t)= S(t)+I(t)- Rsub(t)-L(t)-E(t)

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Utah Energy Balance Model (Tarboton et al. 1996) Snow accumulation maps (De Smeth et al. 2000) (Liu et al. 2004) (Laio et al. 2001)

• Ing. Daniele Norbiato

River Basin Authority Alto Adriatico Hydropredict 2010: Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources in TRUST (LIFE + 2007) project

Geomorphoclimatic formulation

t 1 2 3 R(t) Q(t) f1 f1 f2 f2 f3

Traditional formulation

t 1 2 3 R(t) Q(t) f1 f2 f3 f3 Introduction Climatic model Hydrological model Conclusions Drought mitigation strategies

GEOMORPHOCLIMATIC APPROACH FOR DETERMINING HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE OF RIVER BASINS

Geomorphoclimatic formulation

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Hill state Channel state

• Ing. Daniele Norbiato

River Basin Authority Alto Adriatico Hydropredict 2010: Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources in TRUST (LIFE + 2007) project

Basin closing section

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1/1/01 11/2/01 25/3/01 5/5/01 16/6/01 28/7/01 7/9/01 19/10/01 30/11/01 10/1/02 21/2/02 4/4/02 15/5/02 26/6/02 7/8/02 17/9/02 29/10/02 10/12/02 m3/s 0.000 0.002 0.004 0.006 0.008 0.010 0.012 0.014 0.016 0.018 0.020 m/h

precipitazione Q simulata

precipitation simulated discharge

Piave Basin

Precipitation 1300 mm Outflow 900 mm EVT 400 mm Annual hydrological balance

Points of interest

Introduction Climatic model Hydrological model Conclusions Drought mitigation strategies

GEOMORPHOCLIMATIC APPROACH FOR DETERMINING HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE OF RIVER BASINS

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• Ing. Daniele Norbiato

River Basin Authority Alto Adriatico Hydropredict 2010: Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources in TRUST (LIFE + 2007) project

Introduction Climatic model Hydrological model Conclusions Drought mitigation strategies

Calibration period ENS Validation period ENS 1/12/2002-1/10/2005 0.78 1/10/2005-1/10/2008 0.68

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Astico at Pedescala (BACCHIGLIONE) 137 km2 310-1960 m s.l.m. 1300 mm/year

Impact of climate change on hydrological balance of a

• ne mountain basin

Calibration and validation results

• Ing. Daniele Norbiato

River Basin Authority Alto Adriatico Hydropredict 2010: Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources in TRUST (LIFE + 2007) project

Introduction Climatic model Hydrological model Conclusions Drought mitigation strategies

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Winter Spring Summer Autumn

Monthly runoff projection for the Astico River + 65%

• 15%
• 45%
• 8%

Present-day mean monthly runoff (2000-08) Future mean monthly runoff (2071-2100)

(A1B) scenario

Impact of climate change on hydrological balance of a

• ne mountain basin

• Ing. Daniele Norbiato

River Basin Authority Alto Adriatico Hydropredict 2010: Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources in TRUST (LIFE + 2007) project

Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes in the TRUST area

Introduction Climatic model Hydrological model Conclusions Drought mitigation strategies

• In the project area we expect a general reduction in annual

runoff, a decrease in total snow and a reduction in runoff during spring and summer season by 2100. This will impact agricultural water use, especially in the dry season.

• The probably worsening of the groundwater status in the region,

will be evaluated by coupling the hydrological model with a groundwater balance model.

• Based on results of measures and simulations a methodology to

identify the extent and location of areas suitable for the development

• f appropriate drought mitigation strategies (based on water

banking techniques) is being implemented.

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• Ing. Daniele Norbiato

River Basin Authority Alto Adriatico Hydropredict 2010: Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources in TRUST (LIFE + 2007) project

4

• 1. Introduction
• 2. Climatic model
• 3. Hydrological model
• 4. Drought mitigation strategies
• 5. Conclusions

Introduction Climatic model Hydrological model Conclusions Drought mitigation strategies

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• Ing. Daniele Norbiato

River Basin Authority Alto Adriatico Hydropredict 2010: Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources in TRUST (LIFE + 2007) project

Estimation at regional scale of:

• possible recharge targets,
• economic analysis comparing the "zero“ option and the options

for aquifer recharge

Measures for artificial aquifers recharge and cost benefit analysis

Develop tools and methods for introducing solutions MAR (Managed Aquifer Recharge) for the enhancement

• f groundwater in Veneto-Friuli Plain at river basin scale

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Introduction Climatic model Hydrological model Conclusions Drought mitigation strategies

• Ing. Daniele Norbiato

River Basin Authority Alto Adriatico Hydropredict 2010: Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources in TRUST (LIFE + 2007) project

Introduction Climatic model Hydrological model Conclusions Drought mitigation strategies

FOREST AREAS OF INFILTRATION

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These are land equipped with ditches and trees planted along they. The recharge of this areas occurs during the period of non-irrigation, using irrigation water conveyance systems (canals, underground pipelines). The water seeping into the ground goes to enhance groundwater.

The initiative combines hydraulic and environmental benefits as the biomass production, useful for obtain energy from renewable source

• Ing. Daniele Norbiato

River Basin Authority Alto Adriatico Hydropredict 2010: Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources in TRUST (LIFE + 2007) project

FOREST AREAS OF INFILTRATION

The experiment shows interesting values of water leakage (20-50 l/s/hectar) and encourages extending the initiative to a larger

• area. In fact an area of about 100 hectares

could infiltrate into groundwater a water volume of about 50 million cubic meters per year (190 days) , a very significant value.

The 1st TRUST Experimental area of Schiavon (VI).

In collaboration with the Brenta Consortium of drainage boards and irrigation)

• located in Vicenza Province, close to the Brenta River
• 1 hectar, equipped with 200 meters long ditches
• the infiltrating area of the ditch system is equal to 1200 m2

Introduction Climatic model Hydrological model Conclusions Drought mitigation strategies

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CORLO DAM (Cismon river basin) Reservoir capacity: 50.000.000 mc

• Ing. Daniele Norbiato

River Basin Authority Alto Adriatico Hydropredict 2010: Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources in TRUST (LIFE + 2007) project

5

• 1. Introduction
• 2. Climat et eau: observations au 20e siècle
• 3. Climat et eau: simulations au 21e siècle
• 4. Drought mitigation strategies
• 5. Conclusions

Introduction Climatic model Hydrological model Conclusions Drought mitigation strategies

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• Ing. Daniele Norbiato

River Basin Authority Alto Adriatico Hydropredict 2010: Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources in TRUST (LIFE + 2007) project

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 The hydrological model, coupled with the climate model (CMCC-Med) at high resolution, is able to provide plausible scenarios of future water availability (up to 2100). In the project area we expect a probably worsening of groundwater status due to climate change that will be evaluated by coupling the hydrological model with a groundwater balance model.  The objectives of the project, are in line with European Directive 2000/60/EC on water.  Only the synergy taking place between agencies and institutions involved in water resource management (TRUST Technical Board), made possible the development

• f a predictive tool to support public institutions to promote measures (as drought

mitigation strategies) to protect and preserve water resources on a regional scale.

Conclusions

 The possibility to use the tool developed in TRUST as standard tool for water management in Veneto and Friuli regions was discussed and shared during the 1st WORKSHOP (organized “in the field” on Thursday, May 13, 2010).

Introduction Climatic model Hydrological model Conclusions Drought mitigation strategies

• Ing. Daniele Norbiato

River Basin Authority Alto Adriatico Hydropredict 2010: Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources in TRUST (LIFE + 2007) project

24

Thank you for your attention!

http://www.lifetrust.it daniele.norbiato@adbve.it