ICHARM CHALLENGES FOR CONTRIBUTION TO WATER RELATED DISASTER - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

ICHARM CHALLENGES FOR CONTRIBUTION TO WATER RELATED DISASTER REDUCTION AND PREVENTION May. 27, 2014 The 7 th GEOSS Asia-Pacific Symposium WG1(AWCI) YOICHI IWAMI ICHARM International Center for Water Hazard and Risk Management under the auspices of UNESCO hosted by PWRI, Tsukuba

ICHARM International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management Mission of ICHARM (newly established at the first governing board on February 25, 2014) The mission of ICHARM is to serve as the Global Centre of Excellence for Water Hazard and Risk Management by, inter alia, observing and analyzing natural and social phenomena, developing methodologies and tools, building capacities, creating knowledge networks, and disseminating lessons and information in order to help governments and all stakeholders manage risks of water- related hazards at global, national, and community levels. The hazards to be addressed include floods, droughts, landslides, debris flows, tsunamis, storm surges, water contamination, and snow and ice disasters. We envision a Center of Excellence housing a group of leading people, superior facilities, and a knowledge base which enables conducting i) innovative research, ii) effective capacity building, and iii) efficient information networking . Based on these three pillars, ICHARM will globally serve as a knowledge hub for best national/local practices and an advisor in policy making. ICHARM was established March 6, 2006 at Tsukuba

ICHARM’s Philosophy: Localism (Local Practices) Delivering best available knowledge to local practices IRDR UNESCO IFI GEOSS AWCI Sentinel Asia Centers WWAP, AWDO Efficient Working as a Knowledge information networking WWF, APWF Hub on W&D through Technical Assistance UNISDR GP-GAR Global Centre of Supported by ADB & UNESCO Excellence Flood Alert system IFNet/GFAS Hazard mapping for Water Hazard and (IFAS, BTOP, RRI models) Risk Management Effective capacity Innovative building Flood & drought research risk assessment ・ Master Course ・ Ph.D. Course under climate change Flood Preparedness Hazard Mapping Course Supported by MEXT River & Dam Course Indicators/Standard (Sousei Program) Supported by JICA

Early Warning - IFAS(Integrated Flood Analysis system) for insufficient observed basin Global data: topography, land use, Import satellite rainfall etc. and ground-gauged data Courtesy of JAXA input Run-off analysis by PWRI Output: River discharge, distributed tank model Water level, Rainfall distribution Surfacemodel Model creation River course Aquifer model model Discharge Judge by River Alert message by E-mail reaches management warning level authorities and on the display for river management authorities Evacuate from dangerous areas 5

JICA Training program "2013 Capacity Development for Flood Risk Management with IFAS“ by using satellite-based & ground gauges rainfall data from 9 July to 6 August 2013 at ICHARM in Tsukuba, Japan 16 participants from 6 countries (Philippine, Thailand, Viet Nam, Bangladesh, Kenya, Nigeria)

IFAS Training for ASEAN countries by JICA/AHA center “Capacity Development for Immediate Access and Effective Utilization of Satellite Information for Disaster Management” on September 9-12, 2013 at the AHA Centre ( ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on Disaster Management ) in Jakarta 18 participants from 10 countries (Singapore, Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam)

IFAS installation and identifying flood causes in Pampanga and Cagayan river basins in the Philippines Pampanga River Cagayan River 10,454km 2 27,280km 2 18 rainfall stations 5 rainfall stations 11 water level stations 5 water level stations Mayapyap station Gamu station Ground GSMaP 3B42RT Ground GSMaP original 25 25 20 20 Rainfall (mm/hr) 15 15 Rainfall (mm/hr) 10 10 5 5 0 0 2011/9/26 2011/9/27 2011/9/28 2011/9/29 2011/9/30 2011/10/1 2011/10/2 2011/10/3 2011/10/4 2006/1/23 2006/1/24 2006/1/25 2006/1/26 2006/1/27 2006/1/28 2006/1/29 2006/1/30 2006/1/31 Rain (Ground) Measured Q Ground GSMaP original Ground with dam Rain Measured Q Ground GSMaP 3B42RT 7000 0 14000 0 5 12000 6000 5 10 5000 10000 10 15 Discharge (m3/s) Rainfall (mm/hr) Discharge (m3/s) Rainfall (mm/hr) 4000 8000 20 15 25 6000 3000 20 30 2000 4000 35 25 1000 2000 40 0 30 0 45 2011/9/26 2011/9/27 2011/9/28 2011/9/29 2011/9/30 2011/10/1 2011/10/2 2011/10/3 2011/10/4 2006/1/23 2006/1/24 2006/1/25 2006/1/26 2006/1/27 2006/1/28 2006/1/29 2006/1/30 2006/1/31 8 IFAS results at Mayapyap station IFAS results at Gamu station

RRI (Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation) Model Structure 1D Diffusion Input in River Subsurface + Surface Output Rainfall Discharge DEM W. Level Land Cover Inundation Cross Sec. 2D Diffusion Vertical Infiltration in Catchment • Two-dimensional model capable of simulating rainfall-runoff and flood inundation simultaneously • The model deals with slopes and river channels separately • At a grid cell in which a river channel is located, the model assumes that both slope and river are positioned within the same grid cell Sayama, T. et al.: Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation Analysis of Pakistan Flood 2010 at the Kabul River Basin , Hydrological Sciences Journal , 57(2), pp. 298-312, 2012.

13 Oct, 2011 by MODIS Simulation on Emergency Oct 18, 2011 by ICHARM inundation 5m Simulation in Two dimensional Chao Phraya diffusion wave model river basin in Thailand RRI (Rainfall - Runoff - as of Oct.14, Inundation) model 2011 by using satellite data (3B42RT) Nakhon Sawan (Sayama 2011) Ayutthaya Bangkok 1 : July 2 31 : Aug 1 62 : Sep 1 92 : Oct 1 123 : Nov 1 152 : Nov 30 0m 10

2010 Pakistan flood UNESCO Project (2 years: 2012-14) Strategic Strengthening of Flood Warning 29 July and Management Capacity of Pakistan Kabul river satellite based rainfall(mm) discharge(m3/s) 30,000 0 25,000 20,000 5 15 July to 18 August 15,000 10,000 10 5,000 Kabu ｌ river at Nowshera Satellite based rainfall 0 15 GSMaP ICHARM modified 15-Jul 16-Jul 17-Jul 18-Jul 20-Jul 21-Jul 22-Jul 23-Jul 25-Jul 26-Jul 27-Jul 28-Jul 30-Jul 31-Jul 1-Aug 2-Aug 4-Aug 5-Aug 6-Aug 7-Aug 9-Aug 10-Aug 11-Aug 12-Aug 14-Aug 15-Aug 16-Aug 17-Aug 13 September GSMaP (satellite OCHA Kabul river rainfall data) is useful Target area for IFAS tentatively in the upstream of Kabul Discharge input river basin with no rain gauges data + RRI model 11

Indus-IFAS: flood forecasting system based on IFAS / RRI (UNESCO-Pakistan project 2012-13) INPUT DATA FLOOD CHALLENGES: Inundation area • Lack of trans ー HAZARD by RRI MAPPING boundary data • Null-Low rain gauges network [m] 0.0-0.5 0.5-1.0 density 1.0-2.0 2.0-3.0 • Uncertainty 3.0-5.0 5.0-6.0 6.0-7.5 OUTPUT on snowmelt DATA: Rainfall • distribu- INPUT DATA : tion maps • Rainfall data • Hydro- (PMD ground- graphs at gauges, GSMaP specified and locations forecasted) • Inundation • Real-time extents in 6/3/2014 12 observed mid-low discharges Indus

Capacity Building for Pakistan (2012-13) 6 Pakistani officers (PMD, SPARCO & IPD) graduating from ICHARM/GRIPS MSc Short- training in Japan of 11 Senior Managers from Pakistan ICHARM participation to international Indus-IFAS training at FFD Workshop and Training in Pakistan 6/3/2014 13 Lahore

Flood Inundation Frequency Map in South Sudan based on MODIS Remote Sensing Analysis (April 3, 2014) (ICHARM Web site http://www.icharm.pwri.go.jp/news/news_e/140403_south_sudan_e.html) A number of IDPs (Internally Displaced Persons) may currently live in high flood potential areas in South Sudan. As humanitarian and emergency aid to mitigate flood damages, a country wide flood hazard map is desired for effective evacuations. ICHARM rapidly analyzed a series of MODIS remote sensing images (a total of 506 images) obtained from January 2003 to December 2013. 14

Original PRISM DSM Modification method to get more accurate (12km × 12km) elevation data using satellite observation product (PRISM DSM) Original PRISM DEM(2km × 2km) Modified PRISM DEM(2km × 2km) Modified PRISM Including noise Only structures are remained. A DSM PRISM DSM LP (12km × 12km) 20.0 modified DSM with GPS plain A A 15.0 altitude, m E B D 10.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 2,000.0 4,000.0 6,000.0 8,000.0 10,000.0 12,000.0 B distance, m Elevation in A-B line After removing structures, making moving average of DEM in plain area and then compounding the structures and the modified DEM with GPS 15

Flood risk assessment in Climate change 16 Various GCM experimental on Various scenarios future/current climate Downscaling/ Biais correction Basin scale rainfall GCM sim imulati tion Uncertainty assessment information Hydrological models IFAS / BTOP / RRI Projection of discharge Uncertainty assessment variation Indus Projection of water level Chao Phraya Uncertainty assessment variation Mekong Projection of water 1/10,1/25,1/50 depth variation Water Depth (m ) Solo Flood frequency map Pampamga Socio-economic Flood risk House, industrial, agricultural damages impact Drought risk Water resources assessment, water assessement stress, risk partition Uncertainty assessment Disaster Risk monitoring indices