ICHARM CHALLENGES FOR CONTRIBUTION TO WATER RELATED DISASTER - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

ICHARM CHALLENGES FOR CONTRIBUTION TO WATER RELATED DISASTER REDUCTION AND PREVENTION

• May. 27, 2014

The 7th GEOSS Asia-Pacific Symposium WG1(AWCI)

YOICHI IWAMI

ICHARM International Center for Water Hazard and Risk Management under the auspices of UNESCO hosted by PWRI, Tsukuba

ICHARM

International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management

Mission of ICHARM (newly established at the first governing board on February 25, 2014)

The mission of ICHARM is to serve as the Global Centre of Excellence for Water Hazard and Risk Management by, inter alia, observing and analyzing natural and social phenomena, developing methodologies and tools, building capacities, creating knowledge networks, and disseminating lessons and information in order to help governments and all stakeholders manage risks of water- related hazards at global, national, and community levels. The hazards to be addressed include floods, droughts, landslides, debris flows, tsunamis, storm surges, water contamination, and snow and ice disasters. We envision a Center of Excellence housing a group of leading people, superior facilities, and a knowledge base which enables conducting i) innovative research, ii) effective capacity building, and iii) efficient information networking. Based on these three pillars, ICHARM will globally serve as a knowledge hub for best national/local practices and an advisor in policy making. ICHARM was established March 6, 2006 at Tsukuba

ICHARM’s Philosophy: Localism (Local Practices)

Delivering best available knowledge to local practices

Flood & drought risk assessment under climate change Supported by MEXT (Sousei Program)

IFI

IFNet/GFAS Sentinel Asia WWF, APWF Effective capacity building Innovative research Efficient information networking

UNESCO Centers

IRDR

UNISDR GP-GAR

Working as a Knowledge Hub on W&D through Technical Assistance Supported by ADB & UNESCO Flood Alert system Hazard mapping (IFAS, BTOP, RRI models)

Flood Preparedness Indicators/Standard WWAP, AWDO ・Master Course ・Ph.D. Course

Hazard Mapping Course River & Dam Course Supported by JICA

GEOSS AWCI Global Centre of Excellence for Water Hazard and Risk Management

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Import satellite rainfall and ground-gauged data

Model creation Run-off analysis by PWRI distributed tank model Output: River discharge, Water level, Rainfall distribution Courtesy of JAXA

Global data: topography, land use, etc.

Aquifer model River course model Surfacemodel

Discharge reaches warning level Alert message by E-mail

and on the display for river management authorities

Evacuate from dangerous areas

Judge by River management authorities

Early Warning - IFAS(Integrated Flood Analysis system) for insufficient observed basin

input

16 participants from 6 countries (Philippine, Thailand, Viet Nam, Bangladesh, Kenya, Nigeria)

JICA Training program

"2013 Capacity Development for Flood Risk Management with IFAS“ by using satellite-based & ground gauges rainfall data from 9 July to 6 August 2013 at ICHARM in Tsukuba, Japan

IFAS Training for ASEAN countries by JICA/AHA center

“Capacity Development for Immediate Access and Effective Utilization of Satellite Information for Disaster Management”

• n September 9-12, 2013 at the AHA Centre (ASEAN Coordinating

Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on Disaster Management) in Jakarta 18 participants from 10 countries (Singapore, Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam)

Pampanga River

10,454km2 18 rainfall stations 11 water level stations

Cagayan River

27,280km2 5 rainfall stations 5 water level stations

5 10 15 20 25 30 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 2011/9/26 2011/9/27 2011/9/28 2011/9/29 2011/9/30 2011/10/1 2011/10/2 2011/10/3 2011/10/4 Rainfall (mm/hr) Discharge (m3/s) Rain (Ground) Measured Q Ground GSMaP original Ground with dam 5 10 15 20 25 2011/9/26 2011/9/27 2011/9/28 2011/9/29 2011/9/30 2011/10/1 2011/10/2 2011/10/3 2011/10/4 Rainfall (mm/hr)

Ground GSMaP original

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 2006/1/23 2006/1/24 2006/1/25 2006/1/26 2006/1/27 2006/1/28 2006/1/29 2006/1/30 2006/1/31 Rainfall (mm/hr) Discharge (m3/s) Rain Measured Q Ground GSMaP 3B42RT 5 10 15 20 25 2006/1/23 2006/1/24 2006/1/25 2006/1/26 2006/1/27 2006/1/28 2006/1/29 2006/1/30 2006/1/31 Rainfall (mm/hr) Ground GSMaP 3B42RT

IFAS results at Mayapyap station IFAS results at Gamu station

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Gamu station Mayapyap station

IFAS installation and identifying flood causes in Pampanga and Cagayan river basins in the Philippines

2D Diffusion in Catchment Subsurface + Surface Vertical Infiltration 1D Diffusion in River

• Two-dimensional model capable of simulating rainfall-runoff and flood inundation simultaneously
• The model deals with slopes and river channels separately
• At a grid cell in which a river channel is located, the model assumes that both slope and river are

positioned within the same grid cell

Rainfall DEM Land Cover Cross Sec. Input Discharge

• W. Level

Inundation Output

Sayama, T. et al.: Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation Analysis of Pakistan Flood 2010 at the Kabul River Basin, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57(2), pp. 298-312, 2012.

RRI (Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation) Model Structure

13 Oct, 2011 by MODIS

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1 : July 2 31 : Aug 1 62 : Sep 1 92 : Oct 1 123 : Nov 1 152 : Nov 30

0m 5m Simulation on Oct 18, 2011 by ICHARM RRI (Rainfall - Runoff - Inundation) model by using satellite data

(3B42RT) (Sayama 2011)

Nakhon Sawan Ayutthaya Bangkok Emergency inundation Simulation in Chao Phraya river basin in Thailand as of Oct.14, 2011

Two dimensional diffusion wave model

5 10 15 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 15-Jul 16-Jul 17-Jul 18-Jul 20-Jul 21-Jul 22-Jul 23-Jul 25-Jul 26-Jul 27-Jul 28-Jul 30-Jul 31-Jul 1-Aug 2-Aug 4-Aug 5-Aug 6-Aug 7-Aug 9-Aug 10-Aug 11-Aug 12-Aug 14-Aug 15-Aug 16-Aug 17-Aug satellite based rainfall(mm) discharge(m3/s)

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Kabuｌ river at Nowshera Target area for IFAS

Satellite based rainfall GSMaP ICHARM modified

2010 Pakistan flood

15 July to 18 August

Kabul river Kabul river

13 September OCHA 29 July

+ RRI model Discharge input

UNESCO Project (2 years: 2012-14) Strategic Strengthening of Flood Warning and Management Capacity of Pakistan

GSMaP (satellite rainfall data) is useful tentatively in the upstream of Kabul river basin with no rain gauges data

Indus-IFAS: flood forecasting system based on

IFAS / RRI (UNESCO-Pakistan project 2012-13)

6/3/2014 12

INPUT DATA :

• Rainfall data

(PMD ground- gauges, GSMaP and forecasted)

• Real-time
• bserved

discharges OUTPUT DATA:

• Rainfall

distribu- tion maps

• Hydro-

graphs at specified locations

• Inundation

extents in mid-low Indus

[m] 0.0-0.5 0.5-1.0 1.0-2.0 2.0-3.0 3.0-5.0 5.0-6.0 6.0-7.5

FLOOD HAZARD MAPPING

Inundation area by RRI

INPUT DATA CHALLENGES:

• Lack of transー

boundary data

• Null-Low rain

gauges network density

• Uncertainty
• n snowmelt

6/3/2014 13

Short- training in Japan of 11 Senior Managers from Pakistan 6 Pakistani

• fficers (PMD, SPARCO &

IPD) graduating

from ICHARM/GRIPS

MSc

ICHARM participation to international Workshop and Training in Pakistan

Capacity Building for Pakistan (2012-13)

Indus-IFAS training at FFD Lahore

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Flood Inundation Frequency Map in South Sudan based on MODIS Remote Sensing Analysis (April 3, 2014)

(ICHARM Web site http://www.icharm.pwri.go.jp/news/news_e/140403_south_sudan_e.html) A number of IDPs (Internally Displaced Persons) may currently live in high flood potential areas in South Sudan. As humanitarian and emergency aid to mitigate flood damages, a country wide flood hazard map is desired for effective

• evacuations. ICHARM rapidly analyzed a series of MODIS remote sensing images (a total of 506 images) obtained from

January 2003 to December 2013.

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Original PRISM DEM(2km×2km) Including noise

Modification method to get more accurate elevation data using satellite observation product (PRISM DSM)

Modified PRISM DEM(2km×2km) Only structures are remained.

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 0.0 2,000.0 4,000.0 6,000.0 8,000.0 10,000.0 12,000.0 altitude, m distance, m A B E D

After removing structures, making moving average of DEM in plain area and then compounding the structures and the modified DEM with GPS

Original PRISM DSM (12km×12km) Modified PRISM DSM (12km×12km)

PRISM DSM LP modified DSM with GPS plain A

A B

Elevation in A-B line

Flood risk assessment in Climate change

Projection of water level variation Projection of water depth variation Socio-economic impact assessement

House, industrial, agricultural damages

Downscaling/ Biais correction Uncertainty assessment Flood risk Drought risk

Water resources assessment, water stress, risk partition

Disaster Risk monitoring indices 1/10,1/25,1/50 Flood frequency map

Water Depth (m)

Projection of discharge variation Basin scale rainfall information Hydrological models

IFAS / BTOP / RRI

Various GCM experimental on future/current climate Various scenarios

GCM sim imulati tion

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Uncertainty assessment Uncertainty assessment Uncertainty assessment

Indus Chao Phraya Mekong Solo Pampamga

Agr gric icult lture Damage ge Asse ssessm ssment in in t the P Pampa panga ga R Riv iver B Basin sin ( (Flo Flood) d)

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Flood event period September 26th to October 4th, 2011

milions pesos Pampanga River Basin Calculated Caluculated Reported Caluculated Reported Maxium 1,754 777 54 Minimum 966 443 30 Pampanga Province （Total Affected Area 15,900ha） Calumpit Municipality （Total Affected Area 1,250ha) 1,376 37

Comparison of reported and calculated damage values Flood damage matrix (Bureau of Agricultural Statistics) Maximum damage Minimum damage

Reference: Okazumi, T., Miyamoto, M., Shrestha, B. B. and Gusyev, M.: Uncertainty estimation during the process of flood risk assessment in developing countries – case study in the Pampanga river basin -, Journal of Disaster Research, Vol. 9, No. 1, pp. 69-77, 2014.

ICHARM Challenges for contribution to Hyogo Framework for Action 2 & post-2015 MDGs : Development of Global Risk Indices

This consultation is planned to offer water-related risk assessment methods, and help policy-makers and investors take risk sensitive actions. We show that extreme flood risks are measured by using improved methods and risk indices, and provide practical implications for Asia Pacific region

• Type of disasters: flood (and drought)
• Spatial coverage: Asia-Pacific region

The results of several river basin examples to be introduced for explaining success, difficulty and limitation as case study

• Risk concept: fatalities (or economic damages) are functions of

hazard, exposure, and vulnerability

in cooperation with MLIT and UNISDR Kobe office

• Identification of methodological limitations and improvement plans
• Suggestion on the way to measure DRR-related targets in the HFA2 and post-2015 MDGs
• Suggestion on the practical and credible risk assessment methodologies
• Suggestion on the possibilities of improving national risk profiles, which include sub-

national level information about risk indices, effectiveness of prevention efforts, and key risk drivers

• Suggestion on the water-related risk map for the Asia-Pacific region

 Expected recommendations

Major inputs to the Asia-Pacific consultation

OUTLINE OF GLOBAL FLOOD RISK INDICES

For a comprehensive, integrated, multi-disciplinary approach

Risk Assessment

（Flood risk indicator : GWDRIs）

Vulnerability Assessment Quantifying bio-physical aspects of risks Hazard Assessment

• Key question
• How dangerous are natural

conditions? Exposure Assessment

• Key question
• How many people or assets

are affected by hazards?

• Key questions
• What socio-economic factors would

significantly influence losses and damage?

• how exposure and vulnerability are

coupled into human losses or economic damages?

• Key question
• How seriously disasters would do harm to target areas
• Where are areas at particularly high risk?

Understanding risks in the human system

Thank you for your kind attention

Flood risk indicator (Example)

GWDRIs (Global Water-Related Disaster Risk Indicators) = Total number of fatalities due to the 50-yr flood = children deaths + elderly deaths + other deaths = f (affected people at 50-yr-flood, fatality rate, population distribution ratios)

Runoff and inundation simulation

(water depth and area)

GIS data

(Number of people)

National records about recent flood victims (epidemiological data) Population Census data

(10-yr stratified age- group population)

Thank you for your kind attention