HYBRID PARAMETRIC ESTIMATION FOR GREATER ACCURACY - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶

Sep 17, 2022 120 likes •307 views

William Roetzheim HYBRID PARAMETRIC ESTIMATION FOR GREATER ACCURACY www.level4ventures.com 1 Agenda Abstract Bio Estimation Approaches Estimation Process Estimating Lifecycle Core Estimating Concept

SLIDE 1

HYBRID PARAMETRIC ESTIMATION FOR GREATER ACCURACY

William Roetzheim

www.level4ventures.com 1

SLIDE 2

Agenda

Abstract
Bio
Estimation Approaches
Estimation Process
Estimating Lifecycle
Core Estimating Concept
Parametric estimation
Hybrid parametric estimation
Some HLO Catalogs
Validation and Deployment
Data collection and clean-up
Calibration
Under the covers
Demonstration

www.level4ventures.com 2

SLIDE 3

Abstract

With hybrid parametric estimation, a high-level-object, or HLO,

catalog is created based on historic data to represent estimation components at different levels of granularity. An HLO catalog based approach is in between traditional parametric estimation and estimation using implementation metrics (e.g., SLOC/FP) in terms of both precision and required level of application design work. With hybrid parametric estimation we apply the statistical analysis and modeling techniques used for parametric estimation, but we look specifically for functional outcomes as our independent variables.

www.level4ventures.com 3

SLIDE 4

Bio

William (MBA, CCEA, PMP, RMP, CISA, CRISC, IFPUG) is one of the world’s leading cost model development experts. He developed two commercial cost estimating tools, Cost Xpert and ExcelerTools. He has personally estimated over 500 information technology projects with a cumulative value over $7 Billion, including multiple states; 13 of the Fortune 100 companies; plus many Federal organizations. He has written 27 published books, over 100 articles, dealing with a variety of management and technology issues. william@level4ventures.com (619) 917-4917 www.level4ventures.com

www.level4ventures.com 4

SLIDE 5

Estimation Approaches

Estimation approaches and applicability:

– Catalog look-up. – Learning curve. – Analogy. – Parametric:

High level.
Parameterized catalog (High Level Objects, or HLOs).

– Bottom-up.

www.level4ventures.com 5

SLIDE 6

Estimation Process

www.level4ventures.com 6

Collect Documents Triage Documents Review Documents Start Estimation Worksheet Kick-Off Interview Obtain Follow-Up Documentation Conduct Follow-Up Interviews Prepare Estimates Internal Validation External Validation Revise Prepare Report Archive Done

SLIDE 7

Estimating Lifecycle

Page 7

Analogy Detailed Sizing Assess Spec and Plan Execute and Build Test and Validate Deliver Level 2 As Built For Calibration & Benchmarking Level 3 Level 1 ROM Client Engagement Impacted Components

SLIDE 8

Core Estimating Concept

Page 8

Define HLOs Define Adjusting Variables Define Productivity Curves Determine Cost Related Outputs Determine Non-Cost Outputs Determine Lifecycle Support Costs

SLIDE 9

(True) Parametric estimation

Description.
Uses, advantages, disadvantages:

– Dimensions: Accurate; Comprehensive; Credible; Replicable and Auditable; Timely; Traceable.

Development of Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs):

– Identification of independent and dependent variables. – Collection and clean-up of historic data. – Correlation analysis to identify adjusting parameters. – Regression analysis to identify core equations (often power function). – ANOVA to help fine tune the model.

Applicability to non-traditional modeling:

– IT acquisition timeline. – Benefits from taxation modernization.

www.level4ventures.com 9

SLIDE 10

Hybrid parametric estimation

www.level4ventures.com 10

Decompose to HLOs Adjust HLOs Compute Adjusted Size Use Equations to Compute Total Effort Allocate Effort (Roles, Tasks, Business Requirements, etc.

HLO Catalog Environment Variables Parametric Curves Allocation Templates Done

SLIDE 11

Some HLO Catalogs

www.level4ventures.com 11

SAP Demo-Financial IVR Other or Unknown Batch Business Requirement Configuration Defect Development Interface Report Screen Table Workflow Deployment Unknown Batch/Service Business Requirement Configuration Consulting-Configuration Consulting-Other Consulting-Performance Consulting-Security Interface Page Report Software Application Workflows Other Admin Screen Call Initiation Call Tree Option Interface Report Security Profile Table Voice Message Other IVR Work Agile FFP UML Stories Screens External Interface Files Reports Messages Logical Internal Tables Scenarios Class-Control Class-Interface Class-Other Tables Methods

SLIDE 12

Hybrid parametric estimation

Uses, advantages, disadvantages:

– Dimensions: Accurate; Comprehensive; Credible; Replicable and Auditable; Timely; Traceable.

May be used “out of the box” or configured:

– Configuration advantages: Extend to new domains; improve accuracy; simplify use using preset variables.

www.level4ventures.com 12

SLIDE 13

Validation and Deployment

www.level4ventures.com 13

For each model Configure Environmental Variables Obtain Stakeholder Buy-In Determine Desired Outputs Configure Lifecycle Configure Standard Configure Sizing Objects (HLOs) Adjust Project Type If Needed Validate Accuracy

More Models?

Install and Train Done

SLIDE 14

Data collection and clean-up

www.level4ventures.com 14

Industry Benchmark Data Org. Historic Data Select and Filter Cleanse Normalize Synthesize Consolidate Analyze Investigate and Validate

Done

SLIDE 15

Calibration

www.level4ventures.com 15

Adjust Equations Industry Benchmark Data Org. Historic Data Collect Actuals Define Models

Model Noise Input Noise Calibration Errors

Precision Accuracy

SLIDE 16

Under the covers

www.level4ventures.com 16

SLIDE 17

Demonstration

William Roetzheim william@level4ventures.com (619) 917-4917 www.level4ventures.com

www.level4ventures.com 17

SLIDE 18