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- To be in top quartile on performance and return on investment
- To create a high-performance organization that promotes
teamwork, innovation and trust for sustainability
- To emphasis good Corporate Governance and commit to
Corporate Social Responsibility A LEADING FULLY INTEGRATED REFINING & PETROCHEMICAL COMPANY IN ASIA PACIFIC
VISION MISSION
Ownership & Commitment Social Responsibility Integrity Vision Focus Professionalism Excellent Striving Teamwork & Collaboration Initiative
VALUE
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Corporate Governance Policy
The board of directors, management and all staff shall commit to moral principles, equitable treatment to all stakeholders and perform their duties for the company’s interest with dedication, integrity, and transparency.
Roles and Responsibilities for Stakeholders
- Truthfully report company’s situation
and future trends to all stakeholders equally on a timely manner.
- Shall
not exploit the confidential information for the benefit of related parties or personal gains.
- Shall not disclose any confidential
information to external parties.
CG Channels
Should you discover any ethical wrongdoing that is not compliance to CG policies or any activity that could harm the Company’s interest, please inform:
Corporate Management Office Thai Oil Public Company Limited 555/1 Energy Complex Building A 11F, Vibhavadi Rangsit Road, Chatuchak, Bangkok 10900
cgcoordinate@thaioilgroup.com http://www.thaioilgroup.com
+66-0-2797-2999
- ext. 7312-5
+66-0-2797-2973
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Day 1 Day 2
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Q3 & 9M/10 Highlights
- Refinery utilization at 97%, due to planned maintenance S/D of CUD-1 for 7 days, CCR-1 for 11
days & HCU-1 for catalyst change for 14 days.
- Continued to enhance integration amongst group companies to reduce costs & maximize
- margins. Achieved margin enhancement from processing of unconventional crudes.
- Sought opportunities in price (oil & aromatics) and financial risk management - ~ 200 MB in
Q3/10 & ~ 410 MB for 9M/10
- Accounting GIM increased to $6.1/bbl, improved 22% QoQ and 65% YoY.
- Net profit improved to 2,323 MB, +116% QoQ and 573% YoY.
- In Q3/10, FX gain of 1,317 MB was registered as a result of 2.03 Bt/USD appreciation, offsetting
the respective reduction of Baht net profit, exemplified our natural hedge principle.
8
- GRM continued to recover from higher middle distillate margins, as a result of strong Chinese
demand ahead of Asian Games and Asia’s turnaround season.
- Aromatics margins weakened as supply glut from China & Middle East and higher feedstock cost
following crude price. Currently the margin is in upward trend supported by the bullish PTA/PET market amid the limited supply from Aromatics Oman S/D and Urumqi delay.
- Lube base margins remained strong followed economic recovery and a tight supply as a result of
Indonesian & Taiwanese lube base plants shut down.
Market Condition Performance Highlights
9
Performance Analysis
3.0 7.3 1.4 2.1 3.1 2.5 3.7 3.8 3.1
- 5.3
- 5.8
- 3.0
- 4.5
- 3.0
- 6.7
- 4.8
- 4.7
- 4.8
10
- 16.4
- 31.2
- 40.0
- 47.5 -47.8 -48.5
- 41.3
- 29.2
- 45.9
+ Winter and bunker demand
- Higher crude prices
11.2 7.4 7.3 7.3 9.4 11.7 12.9 8.6 11.3 8.9 7.0 7.0 6.2 8.9 11.3 12.4 7.6 10.9
GO JET
10.5 9.6 8.9 5.1 12.6 9.4 8.6 9.7 10.2
ULG95 HSFO LPG
(controlled price) (Unit: $/bbl)
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials
Market GRM
Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/10 Q2 Q3 9M/09 9M/10
- Seasonal low demand
- Higher Refinery run rates
+ Open arbitrage to the West due to weaker Asian prices
and lower freight rates
+ Higher demand from China ahead of the Asian Games
+ Winter demand kicks off + Inventories start to drawdown
- High stocks to limit GO spike
Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/10 Q2 Q3 9M/09 9M/10
20 40 60 80 100
+ Positive industrial data to support oil demand + I EA, EI A, and OPEC revised up global oil demand growth
- Concern over global economic recovery
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials
2009 Q1/10
Crude Oil Price - Dubai
Q2
(Unit: $/bbl)
62
75 77 74
Q3
75 84 $/bbl as of 26 Nov
3.0 7.3 1.4 2.1 3.1 2.5 3.7 3.8 3.1 3.8 1.2 0.7
- 1.4
2.7 2.9 3.7 1.9 3.1
Market GRM
- 0.9
6.1 0.8 3.5 0.4
- 0.4 -0.1
2.0 0.0
Stock Gain/Loss Accounting GRM
(Unit: $/bbl) (Unit: $/bbl) (Unit: $/bbl)
Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/10 Q2 Q3 9M/09 9M/10
11
12
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials
88% 79% 9% 11% 1% 4% 7% 10% 11% 37% 37% 19% 20% 17% 16% 14% 14% 4% 3% 9M/ 09 9M/ 09 9M/ 10
Far East Local Middle East
9M/10
Sources of Crude
1.mainly ESPO-USSR 2.LPG Market Price – CP Aramco
- 15.2
11.3 10.9
- 4.8
10.2
2
LPG Platformate Gasoline Jet Diesel FO
Spread over Dubai (US$/bbl)
9M/09
2
Spread over Dubai (US$/bbl)
- 16.1
8.6 7.6
- 4.7
9.7
- Flexible production by diversifying crude type to seek an opportunity from market for
cheaper crude.
- Improve lorry loading facilities and Maximize Gasoil products by adjusting production
mode to capture domestic price premium and EURO 4 incentive
Others1
13
81% 79% 19% 21% 9M/09 9M/10
Export Domestic
(KBD) Refinery Intake
261
TOP’s Domestic & Export Sales
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials
278
43% 13% 9% 2% 13% 16% 5%
Domestic Jobbers
9M/2010 Sales Breakdown Export = 21%
690 734 746 732 716 731 711 221 202 138 155 200 164 192
88% 86% 89% 89% 90% 89% 87% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10 Q3/10 9M/10 FY/09 Domestic Demand/Sales Net Export Others Utilization Rate
Domestic Oil Demand / Refinery Intake
Source: DOEB, Ministry of Energy.
Domestic Oil Demand
(KBD) (KBD)
LPG Jet/Kero Diesel FO Gasoline Total Demand 0% 12%
- 3%
7% 4% 3% 170 146 84 357 50 807 187 142 90 357 53 829
9M/09 9M/10
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Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials
200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400
Aromatics Spot Prices & Margins
PX ULG95 BZ (US$/Ton) Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/10 Q2 Q3 9M/10 PX-ULG95 384 475 355 321 286 226 218 243 BZ-ULG95
- 60
79 160 178 215 159 132 169 MX
105 123 123 105 119 138 112 2 1 1 25 37 42 43 34 39 39 20 46 39 44 29 35 35 Q1/ 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/ 10 Q2 Q3 TL BZ MX PX
TPX’s Production & Product-To-Feed Margin (P2F)
(US$/Ton) Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/10 Q2 Q3 9M/10 P2F -$/ton 157 155 159 154 120 103 91 105 P2F -$/bbl 20.6 20.3 20.9 20.3 15.7 13.4 12.0 13.7
(US$/Ton)
384 89
Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/10 Q2 Q3 Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/10 Q2 Q3
(Tons/Quarter)
412 181
- PX oversupply as new
aromatics refinery start up in China and ME
- Producers cut run due to low
price
- In late Q3, polyester demand
robust as end-users shift their requirements from cotton
- Lack of arbitrage opportunity
to US bring oversupply concerns among Asian market
- Loss of BZ demand from SM
plant (=85 KT) due to SM plant in region shutdown
2010 %Utilization Q2 Q3 9M 88% 85% 87%
Paraxylene (PX) Benzene (BZ)
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Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials
400 800 1,200 1,600
53 72 67 64 64 65 58 23 41 36 39 36 38 32 60 81 82 84 87 97 85 Q1/ 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/ 10 Q2 Q3
Bitumen TDAE/Extr act/Slack Wax Base Oil
Base Oil & Bitumen Spot Prices & Margins
BITUMEN 500SN
Q1/09 Q2 Q3
(US$/Ton) Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/10 Q2 Q3/10 9M/10 500SN-HSFO 398 268 404 429 435 541 607 528 BIT-HSFO 70
- 5
- 3
- 23
27 38 46 37
(US$/Ton)
Q4 Q1/10 Q2
TLB’s Production & Product-To-Feed Margin (P2F)
(Tons/Quarter)
HSFO
374 10
Q3 Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/10 Q2 Q3
(US$/Ton) Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/10 Q2 Q3/10 9M/10 P2F -$/ton 97 99 96 126 115 135 149 134 P2F -$/bbl 14.8 15.0 14.5 19.0 17.4 20.6 22.6 20.3
584 3
2010 %Utilization Q2 Q3 9M 94% 94% 94%
- High Demand of High
Viscosity Grades especially BS in NEA /SEA
- Supply shortage due to plants
- utage
- Weaken of Fuel oil price
contribute BO margin upwards
- Chinese demand still firm
with coming summer season and project hanging in Q2
Lube Base Oil Bitumen
16
6.3 5.0 3.7 2.4 5.4 5.0 6.1 4.9 5.5 5.5 10.8 4.4 5.8 5.7 4.7 6.0 6.7 5.5 3.8 1.2 0.7
- 1.4
2.7 2.9 3.7 1.9 3.1
Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/10 Q2/10 Q3/10 9M/09 9M/10
20.6 20.3 20.7 20.2 15.7 13.4 12.0 21 13.7
Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/10 Q2/10 Q3/10 9M/09 9M/10
14.8 15.1 14.5 19.0 17.4 20.6 22.6 14.7 20.3
Q1/09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/10 Q2/10 Q3/10 9M/09 9M/10
Crude Product to Feed Product to Feed
(US$/bbl) (US$/bbl) (US$/bbl)
Market GRM*
* which excluded stock gain and loss Q1/10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/10 Q2 Q3 9M/09 9M/10 (US$/bbl) (US$/bbl)
Market GIM Accounting GIM
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials
Q1/10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/10 Q2 Q3 9M/09 9M/10
1,453 423 516 (182) 39 (33) 31 (1) 2,323 1,409 (110) 10 137 (34) (62) 30 (86) 1,249 1,891 (1,531) 221 (353) (17) (78) 50 345
17
.
Refinery Utilization Aromatic Production Lube Base Production Plant Availability Plant Utilization SAKC Utilization Ship Utilization Q2/10 Q3/10 2.5 3.7 P2F
(US$/ton)
Acc GRM
(US$/bbl)
P2F
(US$/ton)
103 91 135 149 93% 88% 94% 13% 83% 93% 97% 97% 85% 94% 0% 74% 102% 97% AP Rate
(Baht/KW hour)
0.36 n/a
Q2/10 Net Profit Breakdown
NP ∆Qo Q ∆YoY
Q2/10 Q3/10
Refining Aromatics Lube Base Integrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials * Steam Turbine
accident 27/4
* HDS-2 S/D 13 days * HDT-3 S/D 10 days * T9 overhaul 10 days * T12 drydock (Unit: MB)
Conso.
56% holding 55% holding * S/D G5016 for
MI 15/8 – 17/9 Stock &LCM gain in Q3/ 10 = 202 MB Net Profit excl. Stock gain = 2,120 MB
(MB) Sales Revenue
79,041 79,148 78,035 (107)
EBITDA
3,995 3,060 3,821 935
Financial Charges
(465) (457) (503) (8)
FX G/L & CCS
1,317 233 440 1,084
Tax Expense
(914) (292) (104) (622)
Net Profit / (Loss)
2,323 1,074 345 1,249
EPS (THB/Share)
1.14 0.53 0.17 0.61
THB/US$ - ending
30.56 32.59 33.70 (2.03)
Effective Tax Rate (%)
28% 21% 5% 7% 9M/10 9M/09 YoY+/(-) % 3.1 1.9 1.2 63% 5.5 4.9 0.6 12% 237,146 205,179 31,967 16% 10,790 17,757 (6,967) (39%) (1,345) (1,681) 336 20% 2,290 1,332 958 72% (1,648) (1,919) 271 14% 5,403 10,450 (5,047) (48%) 2.65 5.12 (2.47) (48%) 30.56 33.70 (2.03) (6%) 23% 15% 8% 53%
(US$/bbl)
Q3/10 Q2/10 Q3/09 QoQ+/(- )
Market GRM
3.7 2.9 0.7 0.8
Market GIM
6.1 5.0 3.7 1.1
Refining Aromatics Lube Base I ntegrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials
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I nterest Rate Currencies 33% Float 63% THB 67% Fixed 37% USD Cost of Debt TOP Group 4.17%
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Refining Aromatics Lube Base I ntegrated Margin Performance Breakdown Financials
5.2 1.6 2.1
FY/ 08 FY09 9M/ 10
71,68 7 72,89 2 23,92 4 24,40 6 42,13 4 42,51 9
(Unit: MB) Trade Payable / Others LT Debt*
139,817 137,745 FY/ 09
Equities Current Assets Non-Current Assets
9M/ 10
Balance Sheet
* Including current portion of Long-Term Debt
US$ Bon d 32… US$ Loan 4% THB Bon d 42… THB Loan 22 %
87% 7%4%2%
Total LT Debt
- Bt. 42,519 mn.
(US$ 1,391 mn.)
Consolidated Long-Term Debt 1)
1) Including current portion of Long-Term Debt
Net Debt
- Bt. 30,535 mn.
(US$ 999 mn.)
9M/10
0.7 0.5 0.4 FY/ 08 FY/ 09 9M/ 10
As of 30 Sep 2010 (30.56 THB/US$)
Financial Ratios
Net Debt / EBI TDA Net Debt / Equity
≤ 2.0x ≤ 1.0x
20
2011 Market Outlook
- Macroeconomics & Crude Prices
- Petroleum Market
- Aromatics & Base Oil
- Conclusion
- Q4-2010 Market Highlight
21
Q4-2010 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion
Crude rose above $80/bbl on Fed’s QE2 plan, which weakened USD and boosted investment in commodities French strike & diesel shortage in China supported Asian GRM Bullish aromatics margin on plant
- utages, poor cotton harvest and strong
seasonal demand Slightly weaker base oil margin on higher HSFO amid steady regional demand Heavy flood pressured bitumen margin
‘10 ‘10 ‘10 Q2 Q3 QTD Dubai 78 74 81.6 MO-DB 9.4 8.6 9.4 JET-DB 11.7 12.8 14.1 GO-DB 11.3 12.4 12.7 FO-DB
- 6.7
- 4.8
- 7.1
PX-UG95 243 232 456 BZ-UG95 159 131 170 TL-UG95 72 56 107 500SN-FO 541 607 574 Bitumen- FO 38 46
- 12
Macroeconomics & Crude Prices
22
23
Q4-2010 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion
7.5% 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 9.5% 10.0% 10.5%
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10
US Unemployment Rate
9.6% (30%) (20%) (10%) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10
%YoY
US Home Sales
- 19.1%
Quantitative Easing II
- US Economy showed signs of sluggish
recovery after the massive fiscal stimulus packages ended in 2Q’10
- Fed’s action to increase liquidity injection
through QEII program had driven up risk appetite and a move to hedge against inflation
“ Oil price rose as USD weakened on Fed QE2 ”
Source: Bloomberg
24
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Index
US Consumer Sentiment
Nov10 71.6
- 3.0%
- 2.0%
- 1.0%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%
- 1.0%
- 0.5%
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 %YoY %MoM
US Personal Consumption
Oct10 + 2.3%YoY Oct10 + 0.3%MoM
“ Positive Responses Elevated the Floor of Oil Price to $80 ”
- US consumer sentiment rebounded
sharply, while personal consumption improved
- n hopes that QE2 will help accelerate
economic recovery
- OPEC officials see the new ranges of oil price
around $70 - $90, with $80 soon to become a new floor
Source: Bloomberg
25
Q4-2010 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion 2007 2008 2009 2010 1200 1000 800 600 400 200
Irish Banks CDS
5 Year CDS – Basis Point
4 8 12 16 20
Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10
Deposit Rate Lending Rate
PBOC Policy Rate
Allied Irish Banks Bank of Ireland EU Banks Sector
- USD regained its strength against EUR as
fears over Irish banks debt urged investors to turn to safe-heaven assets
- The EU/IMF rescue plans remains uncertain
amid fears of contagious effect among the EU member countries
“ Worries over EU debts problem and China rate hike pressured gain on crude prices ”
- PBOC moved to hike its reserve requirement
ratio for major banks to an all-time high of 18.5%, aiming to reduce inflationary pressure
- Investors began to pull back their speculative
positions on risky assets on worries of Chinese economic growth
Source: Bloomberg
26
Q4-2010 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion
20 40 60 80 100 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 mbd
Global Oil Demand Non-OPEC Supply OPEC NGLs Call on OPEC crude
Source: IEA, Medium Term Oil and Gas Markets 2010, Jul10
25.0 27.5 30.0 32.5 35.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 mbd
OPEC Supply Call on OPEC crude
“OPEC Supply easily fill the gap”
30 45 60 75 90 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 $/bbl Positions
27
Q4-2010 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion
1.15 1.22 1.29 1.36 1.43 1.50 1.57 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
USD/EUR $/BBL
6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Points $/BBL
WTI Non-Commercial Net Long Positions
Source: CFTC, Reuters, Bloomberg
WTI Prices vs Dow Jones Index WTI Prices vs USD:EUR
PENSION STRIKE
- 21 Named storms with 13 as major hurricanes in
2010 but none has significant impact on oil & gas production
- A month-long Pension Reform strike in France
boosted gasoline as gasoil cracks due to country- wide fuel shortages
- Recent dispute between N. Korea and S. Korea
urged a near-term risk aversion, but may disrupt
- S. Korea oil supply if the situation prolonged
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Q4-2010 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion
Oil Price Forecast WTI BRENT Unit : USD/ BBL 2010 2011 2010 2011 Barclays 77.75 85.00 77.45 85.00 BNP Paribas 80.00 86.00 80.00 86.00 BofAML 78.20 85.00 78.20 85.00 CA-CI B 78.00 78.00 77.00 78.00 Deutsche Bank 75.75 80.00 76.00 80.00 Goldman Sachs 81.50 100.00 80.00 98.50 JP Morgan 78.50 82.50 79.20 84.50 UBS 80.00 80.00 76.50 79.00 Source : Reuters Polls as of 27 Sep 10
What the Others Say
Crude prices continue to move upward in a $80 - $100 range . . .
29
Q4-2010 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion
40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2010 2011 $/BBL Dubai
2011 Dubai $83.00 2010 Dubai $77.00
What We See
Average Dubai $83/barrel, ranging $75-90/barrel with a chance to hit $100/barrel upon unexpected events
US QE2 CN rate hike EU debt concern Speculative Flow increase Hurricane Threat to Oil Production I ran sanction & Deep water drilling Rate Hike to Limit Oil Rally
1H-2011
Winter Demand to Reduce I nventory
2H-2011
Petroleum Market
GRM continues on upward trend …
On stronger demand & less new supply
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31
- Refinery runs were seen higher in US and Asia after maintenance completed and relatively firm margin, but
a month-long strike in France let a sharp fall in run rates in EU
- Expect US GRM to decline from lower gasoline cracks, EU and SG GRM to improve on higher MD cracks
- 8
- 4
4 8 12 16 20
Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09 May-10 Oct-10
- 8
- 4
4 8 12 16 20
Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09 May-10 Oct-10
- 8
- 4
4 8 12 16 20
Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09 May-10 Oct-10
US Cracking Margin EU Cracking Margin Singapore & TOP Margin
S’Pore Crk S’Pore Hydro
84.0% 77.5% 82.5%
Total Capacity: 17.7 MBD Source: EIA, Reuters, Thai Oil Total Capacity: 4.6 MBD Total Capacity: 13.1 MBD Q4-2010 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion
32
The drawdown in middle distillates stocks will support margins this winter
Q4-2010 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion Source: EIA, Reuters, Thai Oil
33
“ Expect only 1.7 MBD new additional capacity between 2010-2012 ”
Q4-2010 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion
- 500
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
KBD
CDU Capacity Addition VS Additional Demand in AP and ME
ME Additional Demand AP Additional Demand Taiwan ME Vietnam AP Others Japan India
+ 2.5 5 MBD D in n 20 2011 11-201 2015
SOURCE: FACTS Global Energy, Asia-Pacific Databook, Fall 2010 (October 2010)
(kbd)
2010 2011 2012
China 322 155 588 India 214 160 144 Japan (56) (321)
- Others
- 130
97
TOTAL 480 124 829
+ 5.5 5 MBD in 20 2006-2010
34
BEIJING NANJING SHANGHAI CHONGQING
“ Diesel shortages hit major cities ”
China’s 11th FYP suggested to reduce its energy intensity in 2010 by 20% of 2005 level Power supply rationing forced China to turn into a net diesel importer for the 1st time in 2 yrs (150) (100) (50)
- 50
100 150 200 250 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Thousand Barrels per Day
China Diesel Net Import
Nov10 +80 KBD Diesel demand is expected to be 150 – 200 KBD higher than normal in Oct10 & Nov10 IEA forecasts Chinese diesel demand to be 70 KBD higher than normal until Feb11 Robust Chinese oil demand growth and limited capacity addition may keep China as a net diesel importer 20 30 40 50 60 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Million Barrels
Sinopec & PetroChina Inventory
Diesel Inventory Gasoline Inventory Diesel stock dropped sharply in Oct10
Source: Reuters
Aromatics
Market turns strong,
Better outlook from new PTA plants on stream
35
36
Q4-2010 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion
Supports for Aromatics Business
Healthy polyester demand
Cotton shortage push producers towards polyester
Major producers reduce run rate
Producers kept low run rate
- n poor margin since July
Several Aromatics plants
- utages
Large scale plants in CN, JP & Oman unplanned S/D
Iran sanction limits aromatics supplies
Switched off aromatics production to gasoline mode
Company Unit Capacity Status When CNOOC, China Aromatics PX : 840KTPA BZ : 300KTPA Technical glitch Reduce run rate to 60% 6-Oct Fujia Dahua, China Aromatics PX: 750KTPA BZ: 450 KTPA Unplanned S/D 12- Oct JX Nippon Oil, Japan Reformer Reformate: 36KBD Unplanned S/D 13- Oct Aromatics Oman, Oman PX unit PX: 820KTPA Force Majeure PX 18- Oct
“Several Outages with estimated > 155KT PX losses”
Source: Platts
37
Q4-2010 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion
Company: Hanbang Petrochemical (Chengxing) Product: PTA Capacity: 600KTPA Technology: Invista
“ New Chinese PTA plant Start Up” “ PX supply chain build up stock before CNY’11”
Shaoxing Fabric Transaction (Daily Average) Chinese New Year 2011 starts 03-Feb
“ Heated up Cotton & PTA market ”
Source: Bloomberg, Platts Source: PCI
38
Paraxylene Benzene
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Toluene
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2009 2010 2011
Company Location PX BZ TL PTA When
Hangbang China
- 600
2010-Q4 Yangzi PC China
- 38
26
- 2011-Q1
S-Oil Korea 900 280 320
- 2011-Q1
Urumqi PC China 1,000 300 220
- 2011-Q2
Yisheng Nigbo China
- 2,000
2011-Q2 Yisheng Dahua China
- 500
2011-Q2 Daqing PC China
- 150
90
- 2011-Q3
Sanfanxiang China
- 1,200
2011-Q3 ExxonMobil Singapore
- 340
122
- 2011-Q4
China Kuwait Oman Singapore Korea Japan Netherlands Poland Unit : KTPA
39
6.2% 4.4% 1.9%
Paraxylene Benzene Toluene
- In 2011, PX market will improve from 2010 especially in H2 when the demand from new PTA plants
arrive to capture surplus.
- I mport BZ demand from US is expected to decline due to 500-700KT additional BZ availability from
MSAT2 implementation. China will be more self-sufficient for both BZ and SM from their new plants.
- TL supply keeps growing as a co-product from Naphtha crackers and PX plants especially in North East
Asia forcing operating rate at below 70%
Source: CMAI Q4-2010 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion
Base Oil & Bitumen
Demand growth to balance with supply,
supported prices
40
Bitumen : Slower Demand “Heavy Floods put off domestic demand”
41
Q4-2010 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion
Base Oils : Tighter Supply “Several plants shut down”
Lubricant change to winter grade
Base Oils demand pick up
Prolonged S/D of Taiwan’s Formosa Base Oil Plant
Tight supply support prices across Asia Pacific
Heavy rains damped demand
Pavement and construction delay
Minimize inventory at year end
Lower buying interest 500SN Ex-Tank Singapore Prices
- Petamina
- S-Oil
Formosa
$/MT
TH Bitumen Domestics Demand (,000 Ton)
Source : DOEB Source : ICIS
42
Q4-2010 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion FORMOS OSA
Supply expect to be tight Schedule plant shut down
Source: Kline Estimate
KMT
20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Demand Gr.II Gr.III Gr.I Supply
- In 2011, Market will adjust to normal status due to the
ample supply
- Economic recovery 2011 will lead to the higher car sales
especially in China & India, contributing to the increase in lubricant consumption.
AP Base Oils : Supply & Demand
Shut Down Period
43
Q4-2010 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion
Chinese less import expected in 2011
- Asia Pacific remains the world’s largest market for bitumen in 2011, driven by massive investment in
China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand
- Demand growth in Thailand is expected to peak in 2010-2011.
- Thai’s Government infrastructure projects is expected to increase bitumen demand in 2011-2012.
- 5,000
10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E
Demand Supply +Import/-Export
(1,000)
- 1,000
2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E
Demand Supply +Import/-Export
I ndian government emphasis on infrastructure investment Source : C1 Energy Source : Vinergy
Conclusion
44
45 Strong G.I demand in Asia despite growing G.II/III demand
2011 Outlook
Moderate economic growth with slower growth from Asia and Europe Expect crude prices to trade in the range of $75-90/barrel on growing demand Improve GRM on strong regional demand and less new capacity
Refinery Aromatics Base Oil
Growing new aromatics supply absorbed by growing demand More bitumen demand in region on road repair projects Strong PX growth from China and India and steady BZ growth with global economy
Q4-2010 Market Highlight Macro & Crude Petroleum Market Aromatics & Base Oil Conclusion
Strategy
Max sales, max production Operational excellence Enhance synergy Price risk management Innovative products & services Growth opportunities
Frequently Asked Questions FAQ’s
46
Conclusion
47
48
Thank You
Any queries, please contact: Investor Relations at email: ir@thaioilgroup.com Tel: 662-797-2999 Fax: 662-797-2976
Appendices
49
50
Source : Department of Energy Business, Ministry of Energy
Thailand LPG Demand LPG Demand by Sector LPG Demand Highlight
- LPG Demand in 9M grew 12.1% YoY driven
mainly by industry sector:
- Household +9.9% YoY
- Transportation -0.5% YoY
- Industry +39.4% YoY
- Petrochemical +10.8% YoY
Outlook 2010
- Expect 15% LPG demand growth in
2010, largely from industrial sectors following global economic recovery
- Continue capped LPG retail prices at least until
Feb 2011 will lean support on double-digit demand growth for LPG
801 729 816 801 793 830 769 855 834
500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 1,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2008 2009 2010A
ML/Mth 203 55 68 124
- 100
200 300 400 500 600 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov KT/Mth
Household Transportation
51
Source : Department of Energy Business, Ministry of Energy
Thailand Gasoline Demand Gasoline Demand by Grade Gasoline Demand Highlight
- Gasoline demand contracted 2.7% YoY 9m
2010 due to higher retail price comparing to last year
- Portion of gasohol & gasoline sales is
relatively maintained at around 60% : 40%
- Average ethanol replacement is 1.23
ML/Day currently
Outlook 2010
- Expect soft gasoline demand in 2010 due
to:
- Higher retail gasoline price will continue
pressuring down demand
- While strong private consumption index
doesn’t help supporting gasoline demand
606 592 620 607 599 617 637 619 607
400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2008 2009 2010A
ML/Mth
- 100
200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2008 2009 2010 ML/Mth E20 GSH91 GSH95 ULR91 ULG95
200 250 300 350 400 450 500
20,000 24,000 28,000 32,000 36,000 40,000 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
mml / month # of aircraft
# of Flights (lhs) JP 1 Demand
JET Demand Highlight
- After BKK crackdown in May, in-bound
tourists have rebounded continuously leaning support JET fuel demand in 2010, where growth is 6.2% YoY 9M
Outlook 2010
- Expect strong Jet demand growth in 2010
from coming high season but the upsides are limited by flooding impact during Sep- Oct:
- In addition, strong intra-region travelling
figures is another factor that could boost up Jet fuel demand for the rest of this year 52
Source : Department of Energy Business, Ministry of Energy
Thailand JET-A1 Demand JET-A1 demand and # of flights
425 387 422 378 334 334 366 335 369
200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2008 2009 2010A
ML/Mth
50 100 150 200 250 ML/Mth 2009 2010
Gasoil Demand Highlight
- Gasoil demand was flat 9M despite the
rising retail prices compared with last year. (Partially supported by robust manufacturing growth)
- Current Portion between B3:B5 is 60:40 and
B100 replacement is ~ 1.73 ML/Day
Outlook 2010
- Expect slow down in gasoil demand growth
in 2010 due to:
- Higher diesel price pressures down
demand even though strong Thai Baht helps cap retail prices
- More NGV demand will depress gasoil
consumption going forward
- However, strong manufacturing sector
will help limit the loss
Source : Department of Energy Business, Ministry of Energy
Thailand Gasoil Demand Rising Trend of NGV Demand
53
1,566 1,546 1,688 1,550 1,588 1,509 1,517 1,431 1,404
1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 2008 2009 2010A
ML/Mth
Fuel Oil Demand Highlight
- FO demand grew 4.1% YoY 9M 2010 thanks to
strong requirement from power plants as the
- ccurrence of NG disruption & also recover
global trade led to more demand for bunker fuel
Outlook 2010
- Expect modest Fuel Oil demand growth in
2010:
- Unexpected natural gas supply disruption
to power, causing prompt FO demand in power plants
- However, higher oil prices will pressure
down FO demand from industrial sector despite the economic recovery
Source : Department of Energy Business, Ministry of Energy
Thailand Fuel Oil Demand Thailand Fuel Oil Demand by Sector
54
- 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2008 2009 2010 ML/Mth
Others & Article 10 Electricity Industry
ML/Mth 210 216 292 219 224 206 251 216 198
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2008 2009 2010A