How to value the indescribable: looking to the past to create the - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

How to value the indescribable: looking to the past to create the foundation for the future

Presented by: Nikeeta Roche Engineer – Asset Planning IPWEAQ CQ Branch Conference – Rockhampton May 2019

Census Data

(total dwellings, people and

• ccupancy rate)

What is a Population Model?

Council GIS Data

(base parcels, zoning, aerial mapping, water meter connections)

Statistical Areas

(SA3, SA2’s, SA1’s, mesh blocks available from ABS)

Projected Population Growth

(Australian Bureau

• f Statistics)

Priority Growth Order

(based on existing zoning, future projects and strategic plans, local knowledge)

Development Applications

(both historical and current DA’s, Building Permits, OPW)

Census Data

(total dwellings, people and

• ccupancy rate)

Council GIS Data

(base parcels, zoning, aerial mapping, water meter connections)

Statistical Areas

(SA3, SA2’s, SA1’s, mesh blocks available from ABS)

Projected Population Growth

(Australian Bureau

• f Statistics)

Priority Growth Order

(based on existing zoning, future projects and strategic plans, local knowledge)

Development Applications

(both historical and current DA’s, Building Permits, OPW)

What is a Population Model?

Council does know the needs of our community better than anyone else

Document assumptions made Stakeholder engagement Up-skilling Understand end user needs Maintain and monitor Working together with both parties can achieve amazing results but we must not forget the value of in-house skills and knowledge!

How do we ensure this information was included?

Stormwater Transport Sewer LGIP Population Model

Stormwater

Parks Water

Input data: For our baseline (current population)

• 2016 Census data at Mesh Block

level was used For Forecasting

• SA2 Population Forecasting was

used Output Data: Population and Dwelling/s per lot at 5 year increments (Current – 2041)

State / Territory - QLD

Input Data

Input data: For our baseline (current population)

• 2016 Census data at Mesh Block

level was used For Forecasting

• SA2 Population Forecasting was

used Output Data: Population and Dwelling/s per lot at 5 year increments (Current – 2041)

State / Territory - QLD SA4 – Central QLD

Input Data

Input data: For our baseline (current population)

• 2016 Census data at Mesh Block

level was used For Forecasting

• SA2 Population Forecasting was

used Output Data: Population and Dwelling/s per lot at 5 year increments (Current – 2041)

State / Territory - QLD SA4 – Central QLD SA3 – Gladstone Region

Input Data

Input data: For our baseline (current population)

• 2016 Census data at Mesh Block

level was used For Forecasting

• SA2 Population Forecasting was

used Output Data: Population and Dwelling/s per lot at 5 year increments (Current – 2041)

State / Territory - QLD SA4 – Central QLD SA3 – Gladstone Region SA2 – Agnes Water Miriam Vale

Input Data

Input data: For our baseline (current population)

• 2016 Census data at Mesh Block

level was used For Forecasting

• SA2 Population Forecasting was

used Output Data: Population and Dwelling/s per lot at 5 year increments (Current – 2041)

State / Territory - QLD SA4 – Central QLD SA3 – Gladstone Region SA2 – Agnes Water Miriam Vale SA1 – Pop. 200 - 800

Input Data

Input data: For our baseline (current population)

• 2016 Census data at Mesh Block

level was used For Forecasting

• SA2 Population Forecasting was

used Output Data: Population and Dwelling/s per lot at 5 year increments (Current – 2041)

State / Territory - QLD SA4 – Central QLD SA3 – Gladstone Region SA1 – Pop. 200 - 800 Mesh Blocks – 30 dwellings

Input Data

SA2 – Agnes Water Miriam Vale

Mesh Blocks containing relevant Census Data

Population Dwellings Occupancy rate

Input Data

2011 EP values Equivalent Person per dwelling Expected typically 2.7– 3.0 Persons per dwelling Findings show some areas are significantly less in the 2011 Census Data

Finding the trends within the data Input Data

Finding the trends within the data

2016 EP values Trends identified by Council Officers:

• Occupancy rate dropped
• Migration to newer areas as housing prices drop
• Tourism regions
• Workcamps
• Houseboats
• Retirement / High Care Facilities

Input Data

55,000 60,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 80,000 85,000 90,000 95,000 100,000 105,000 110,000 115,000 120,000 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046

Total Population Year

Population Growth for the whole Gladstone Region

SA2 2015 Projections

2015 Projected Population Growth: Average rate of 2.22% growth per year Input Data

Growth Methodology and Assumptions Growth was developed according to:

• 1. Infill
• 2. Development Applications
• 3. Priority growth order
• 4. Minimum Lot size
• 5. Broad hectare

Input Data

55,000 60,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 80,000 85,000 90,000 95,000 100,000 105,000 110,000 115,000 120,000 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046

Total Population Year

Population Growth for the whole Gladstone Region

Original Model SA2 2015 Projections

Population Model on deliverable: Average rate of 3.24% growth per year 2015 Projected Population Growth: Average rate of 2.22% growth per year Output Data: Per Lot Assessment

55,000 60,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 80,000 85,000 90,000 95,000 100,000 105,000 110,000 115,000 120,000 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046

Total Population Year

Population Growth for the whole Gladstone Region

SA2 2018 Projections Original Model SA2 2015 Projections

Population Model on deliverable: Average rate of 3.24% growth per year 2015 Projected Population Growth: Average rate of 2.22% growth per year 2018 Projected Population Growth: Average rate of 0.71% growth per year Output Data: Per Lot Assessment

55,000 60,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 80,000 85,000 90,000 95,000 100,000 105,000 110,000 115,000 120,000 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046

Total Population Year

Population Growth for the whole Gladstone Region

SA2 2018 Projections Original Model SA2 2015 Projections

2036 growth projections dropped by 33,000 Output Data: Per Lot Assessment

Output Data: Per Lot Assessment

Decision point: Use consultant OR complete in house?

Census Data

(total dwellings, people and

• ccupancy rate)

Council GIS Data

(base parcels, zoning, aerial mapping, water meter connections)

Statistical Areas

(SA3, SA2’s, SA1’s, mesh blocks available from ABS)

Projected Population Growth

(Australian Bureau

• f Statistics)

Priority Growth Order

(based on existing zoning, future projects and strategic plans, local knowledge)

Development Applications

(both historical and current DA’s, Building Permits, OPW)

Works required to align with 2018 Projected Population Growth

Baseline completed by external consultant – minor changes only needed Realignment work requires Priority Growth Area

Complete in house

• Staff upskilled
• Primarily the priority growth areas needed

to be adjusted (based on in house knowledge)

Applied previous Methodology to align with 2018 forecasting data General findings:

• General rules not a “one size fits all”
• Heavy reliance on aerial imagery
• Able to identify and remove some growth quickly

using analyst tools and local knowledge Input Data

Input Data Census Data: Alignment:

Output Data: Per Lot Assessment

Output Data: Per Lot Assessment

WHAT’S NEXT?

• Water and Sewer Strategic Plans
• Key info connected to Council’s Geocortex mapping
• Lot tracking
• Quarterly Review
• Investigate demographic input
• Transport Modelling
• Parks and Community strategies

PROJECT LEARNINGS

• Built capacity and confidence
• Inter-department sharing of knowledge
• Increased ownership, passion and drive
• Need to Update and monitor
• But most valuable is…

Local Knowledge is key