HOUSING NEEDS San Miguel County ASSESSMENT August 20 th , 2018 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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HOUSING NEEDS San Miguel County ASSESSMENT August 20 th , 2018 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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HOUSING NEEDS San Miguel County ASSESSMENT August 20 th , 2018 Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. T h e E c o n o m i c s o f L a n d U s e EPS EPS HOUSING POLICY REAL ESTATE ECONOMICS HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS LOCAL RESOURCE ALLOCATION

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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.

T h e E c o n o m i c s o f L a n d U s e

HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT

San Miguel County

August 20th, 2018

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HOUSING POLICY REAL ESTATE ECONOMICS HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS LOCAL RESOURCE ALLOCATION LAND USE PLANNING MARKET ANALYSIS FISCAL & ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS PARKS & OPEN SPACE ECONOMICS

EPS EPS

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SURVEY AND QUALITATIVE RESEARCH MODELLING AND APPLIED ANALYSIS PUBLIC POLICY CITY AND TOWN PLANNING HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS EXTENSIVE EXPERIENCE IN RESORT AND MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES

RRC RRC

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Economic & Planning Systems San Miguel County Housing Needs Assessment | 3

ABOUT US

KEY STAFF

DAVID D BECH CHER ER

DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH RRC

David has diverse experience managing and conducting many types of market research and planning projects for public and private sector clients in his more than two decades at RRC.

ANDRE REW KNUDTSEN SEN

MANAGING PRINCIPAL EPS EPS

Andrew draws from 20 years

  • f experience addressing

community housing needs, evaluating local resource allocation, and leveraging market trends to identify emerging opportunities and address existing deficits.

CHRIS CARES ES

MANAGING DIR./FOUNDER RRC

Chris is a founding partner of RRC Associates and specializes in practical applications of research techniques to solve problems in city planning, administration, and business applications.

TIM MORZEL

VICE PRESIDENT EPS EPS

Tim has a broad base of experience in land use economics, planning, and real estate development. He brings a diverse skill set for solving complex problems related to a variety of land use issues.

SARAH AH DUNMIRE RE

RESEARCH ANALYST EPS EPS

Sarah has experience conducting detailed analysis relating to economic and demographic research.

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Economic & Planning Systems San Miguel County Housing Needs Assessment | 4

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

  • Shirley

ey Diaz – San Miguel Regional Housing Authority

  • Ross

s Herzog zog and L Lance e McDonald d – Town of Telluride

  • Lynn Black – San Miguel County
  • Kim M

Montgo tgomer ery and M Michel elle e Haynes es – Town of Mountain Village WORKING GROUP

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Economic & Planning Systems San Miguel County Housing Needs Assessment | 5

STUDY OVERVIEW

Builds s on a and updates es past effor

  • rts

ts

  • Compare past milestones with trend analysis

– Economic – Demographic – Survey data – Understanding of where we are now relative to the Great Recession

  • Build on regional housing needs assessments that have been completed in

2000, 2008, and 2011

  • Provide a projection of need
  • Inform current decisions
  • Provide parameters for next steps

SAN MIGUEL HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT

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Economic & Planning Systems San Miguel County Housing Needs Assessment | 6

PRESENTATION OVERVIEW

E&D / S Survey vey Overvi view ew

  • 1. Employment and Demographics
  • 2. Existing Housing Inventory
  • 3. Housing Costs
  • 4. Household Survey Summary
  • 5. Commuting Overview
  • 6. Employer Survey Summary

Housi sing g Needs s and Gaps

  • 7. What has changed since 2011?
  • 8. What does the future look like?

KEY SECTIONS

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STUDY AREA

SAN MIGUEL COUNTY

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STUDY AREA

TELLURIDE REGION

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SAN MIGUEL COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT

ECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC OVERVIEW

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CURRENT POPULATION

San Miguel el County = 8 8,266 SAN MIGUEL COUNTY, 2017 (DOLA)

2,621 1,451 580 200 45 3,369 Telluride Mountain Village Norwood Ophir Sawpit Unincorporated Area

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POPULATION TRENDS

SAN MIGUEL COUNTY, 1980-2016 (DOLA)

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source: DOLA; Economic & Planning Systems

  • 1980-2016 – 134 people or 2.6% per year
  • 2010-2016 – 107 people or 1.4% per year
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POPULATION FORECAST

SAN MIGUEL COUNTY, 2016-2030 (EPS/DOLA)

  • DOLA Forecast – 2.7% per year, 2030 Pop. = 11,742
  • EPS Forecast – 1.3% per year, 2030 Pop. = 9,804

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 DOLA Forecast Historic EPS Forecast

Source: DOLA; Economic & Planning Systems

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EMPLOYMENT

SAN MIGUEL COUNTY, 2005-2017 (QCEW)

6,380 6,337 6,320 6,502 6,844 7,042 7,381 7,129 6,574 6,366 6,398 6,377 6,502 6,746 7,149 7,266

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Employment

Source: DOLA; BLS; Economic & Planning Systems

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TOTAL EMPLOYMENT INDEX

SAN MIGUEL COUNTY, 2005-2018

80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Employment Index

San Miguel County Colorado

Source: BLS; Economic & Planning Systems

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40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Employment Index

San Miguel County Colorado

Source: BLS; Economic & Planning Systems

CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT INDEX

SAN MIGUEL COUNTY, 2005-2018

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80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Employment Index

San Miguel County Colorado

Source: BLS; Economic & Planning Systems

GUEST ORIENTED EMPLOYMENT INDEX

SAN MIGUEL COUNTY, 2005-2018

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80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Employment Index

San Miguel County Colorado

Source: BLS; Economic & Planning Systems

LOCAL ORIENTED EMPLOYMENT INDEX

SAN MIGUEL COUNTY, 2005-2018

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LARGEST EMPLOYMENT SECTORS

SAN MIGUEL COUNTY, 2016

1,287 829 814 686 677 577 532 471 349 284 169 154 118 112 67 48 43 8 7

Accommodation and Food Services Public Administration Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Construction Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Other Services, except Public Administration Retail Trade Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Admin and Support and Waste Mgmt and Rem Srvcs Health Care and Social Assistance Manufacturing Educational Services Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Finance and Insurance Information Transportation and Warehousing Wholesale Trade Management of Companies and Enterprises Utilities Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction

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CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT

SAN MIGUEL COUNTY, 2011-2016

  • Avg. Wage (2016)

$24,258 $23,335 $23,712 $33,878 $73,866 $22,380 $37,999 $42,588 $31,603 $20,787 $71,994 $51,779 $68,809 N/A N/A $41,405 $24,228 $36,374 $17,440 $26,163 $49,160 Average

262 206 123 85 69 62 61 58 58 40 23 10 8 5

  • 2
  • 4
  • 4
  • 29
  • 122

Accommodation and Food Services Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Admin and Support and Waste Mgmt and Rem Srvcs Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Health Care and Social Assistance Other Services, except Public Administration Manufacturing Retail Trade Educational Services Finance and Insurance Wholesale Trade Management of Companies and Enterprises Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Utilities Transportation and Warehousing Public Administration Information Construction

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EMPLOYMENT FORECAST

SAN MIGUEL COUNTY, 2016-2030 (EPS/DOLA)

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

DOLA Forecast EPS Forecast Historic

Source: DOLA; Economic & Planning Systems

  • DOLA Forecast – 2.7% per year, 2030 Emp. = 10,703
  • EPS Forecast – 1.0% per year, 2030 Emp. = 8,352
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SAN MIGUEL COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT

HOUSING INVENTORY

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RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY

SAN MIGUEL COUNTY, 1990-2016 (U.S. CENSUS)

137 192 169 220 353 114 152 114 178 145 142 134 100 96 129 213 163 156 125 44 47 28 25 22 36 32 35

1990-2016 Avg., 122 2010-2016 Avg., 32 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Units Building Permits 1990-2016 Avg. 2010-2016 Avg.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Economic & Planning Systems

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SINGLE FAMILY VS. MULTIFAMILY CONSTRUCTION

SAN MIGUEL COUNTY, 1990-2016 (U.S. CENSUS) 66% 90% 34% 10%

1990-2016 2010-2016 Single Family Multifamily

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Economic & Planning Systems

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RENTER VS OWNER HOUSING UNITS

SAN MIGUEL COUNTY, 2016

3,448 51% 1,326 20% 1,932 29% 3258 49%

Vacant Housing Units Occupied Housing Units

Renter Housing Units Owner Housing Units

Total Housing Units Occupied Housing Units

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HOUSING UNITS BY TENURE

SAN MIGUEL COUNTY, 2012-2016 ACS 5-YEAR

Description 2010 2016 Total

  • Ann. #
  • Ann. %

Housing Units Occupied Units 3,228 3,258 30 5 0.2% Vacant Housing Units 3,193 3,448 255 43 1.3% Total 6,421 6,706 285 48 0.7% Occupied % of Total 50.3% 48.6% Vacant % of Total 49.7% 51.4% Occupied Housing Units Renter Occupied 1,151 1,326 175 29 2.4% Owner Occupied 2,077 1,932

  • 145
  • 24
  • 1.2%

Total Occupied Units 3,228 3,258 30 5 0.2% Renter % of Occ. 35.7% 40.7% Owner % of Occ. 64.3% 59.3%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Economic & Planning Systems

2010-2016

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HOUSING CONSTRUCTION

DEED RESTRICTED AND MARKET RATE, SAN MIGUEL COUNTY

864 718 357 753 145 127 425 166 326 126 45 36

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2017

New Housing Units

Market Rate Deed Restricted

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HOUSING CONSTRUCTION % OF TOTAL

DEED RESTRICTED AND MARKET RATE, SAN MIGUEL COUNTY

67% 81% 52% 86% 76% 78% 33% 19% 48% 14% 24% 22%

1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2017 Market Rate Deed Restricted

Average (‘90-‘18): 73% Market Rate 27% Deed-Rest.

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DEED-RESTRICTED HOUSING INVENTORY

SAN MIGUEL COUNTY, 2011-2017

310 384 509 531 275 280

100 200 300 400 500 600 2011 2017

Housing Units

Telluride Mountain Village San Miguel County

Source: SMRHA; Rees Consulting;Economic & Planning Systems

+ 22 + 74 + 5 Total New Units = 101

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Description Total Units Vacant Percent Telluride Creekside 26 0.0% Shandoka 134 1 0.7% Virginia Placer 21 0.0% Boarding House [1] 46 2 4.0% Subtotal 227 3 1.3% Mountain Village Big Billies 147 13 8.8% Hotel Madeline 10 0.0% Mountain View Apts 30 0.0% Village Court Apts 222 0.0% Subtotal 409 13 3.2% Total 636 16 2.5%

[1 ] Represents 1 8 single units and 1 4-double occupancy rooms Source: SM RHA; Economic & Planning Systems

DEED-RESTRICTED RENTAL VACANCIES

  • Shandoka unit being remodeled
  • Boarding House recently opened in

June 2018

– Over two months, has nearly reached full occupany

  • Big Billies has 13 studio units

available MAJOR APARTMENT COMPLEXES

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SAN MIGUEL COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT

HOUSING COST SUMMARY

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FOR-SALE HOUSING TRENDS

SALES VOLUME, SAN MIGUEL COUNTY

40 45 38 32 37 74 43 40 48 53 58 84 41 58 61 58 62 59 87 76 55 64 80 58 58 53 82 79 79 75 95 78 54 65 2 8 3 11 8 10 4 3 1 3 4 6 5 5 7 7 12 15 11 8 9 13 6 8 6 4 4 9 12 7 11 6 8

20 40 60 80 100 120

2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2

Sales Volume

Market Rate Affordable

Source: FlexMLS; Economic & Planning Systems

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FOR-SALE HOUSING TRENDS

MARKET RATE – AVERAGE SALES PRICE (4-QTR. AVERAGE)

$0 $500,000 $1,000,000 $1,500,000 $2,000,000 $2,500,000 $3,000,000

2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2

Average Sales Price (4-Qtr. Avg.)

Telluride Mountain Village Other San Miguel County

Source: FlexMLS; Economic & Planning Systems

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FOR-SALE HOUSING TRENDS

MARKET AND DEED RESTRICTED AVERAGE PRICE – SAN MIGUEL COUNTY

$0 $200,000 $400,000 $600,000 $800,000 $1,000,000 $1,200,000 $1,400,000 $1,600,000 $1,800,000 $2,000,000

2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2

Average Sales Price (4-Qtr. Avg.)

Market Rate Affordable

Source: FlexMLS; Economic & Planning Systems

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DEED-RESTRICTED SALES

3-YEAR AVERAGE, 2015-2017

$375,544 $189,867 $230,872 $280,000 $338,995

$0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 SMC R-1 SMC Price Capped Telluride Telluride EDU Mountain Village

  • Avg. Price

Source: SMRAH 2017 Annual Report; Economic & Planning Systems

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FOR-SALE HOUSING TRENDS – MARKET RATE

SALES DISTRIBUTION BY AMI (2013-2018) – SAN MIGUEL COUNTY

0.1% 3.2% 10.8% 4.7% 6.8% 6.8% 9.8% 8.3% 49.6%

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0%

Less than 30% 31% - 50% 51% - 80% 81% - 100% 101% - 120% 121% - 150% 151% - 200% 201% - 250% Over 250%

Percent of Sales (2013-2018)

2 47 160 69 101 100 145 123 734

200 400 600 800

Less than 30% 31% - 50% 51% - 80% 81% - 100% 101% - 120% 121% - 150% 151% - 200% 201% - 250% Over 250%

Number of Sales (2013-2018)

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FOR-SALE HOUSING TRENDS – DEED RESTRICTED

SALES DISTRIBUTION BY AMI (2013-2018) – SAN MIGUEL COUNTY

5 58 49 33 11 20 9 12

20 40 60 80

Less than 30% 31% - 50% 51% - 80% 81% - 100% 101% - 120% 121% - 150% 151% - 200% 201% - 250% Over 250%

Number of Sales (2013-2018)

0.0% 2.5% 29.4% 24.9% 16.8% 5.6% 10.2% 4.6% 6.1%

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0%

Less than 30% 31% - 50% 51% - 80% 81% - 100% 101% - 120% 121% - 150% 151% - 200% 201% - 250% Over 250%

Percent of Sales (2013-2018)

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Unit Type Creekside Shandoka Virgina Placer Boarding House Big Billies Village Court Studio

  • $850
  • $688

$680 1 Bedroom $645 - 985 $838 - 872

  • $845

2 Bedroom $725 - 1,349 $1,115 - 1,150 $1,400 - 1,430

  • $1,040

3 Bedroom

  • $1,435 - 1,541
  • $1,215

4 Bedroom

  • $1,616 - 1,648
  • Single Room
  • $450
  • Double Room
  • $385
  • Tiny Home
  • $700
  • Source: SM RHA; Economic & Planning Systems

Telluride Mountain Village

RENTAL RATES

2018 RENTS BY PROJECT

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RENTAL RATES – PRIVATELY HELD PROPERTIES

UNITS LISTED ON CRAIGSLIST AND ZILLOW

Description Sample Size Size (SF) Price per Month Price per SF Rent per Bed Telluride 1-Bed 7 694 $1,832 $2.52 $1,832 2-Bed 2 778 $2,738 $3.59 $1,369 3-Bed 1 2,500 $2,800 $1.12 $933 4-Bed 2 2,506 $4,448 $1.84 $1,112 Average 1,203 $2,500 $2.46 $1,560 Subtotal 12 Outside Telluride 1-Bed 1 500 $850 $1.70 $850 2-Bed 2 975 $825 $0.88 $413 3-Bed 2 1,200 $1,038 $0.88 $346 4-Bed 2 2,485 $1,900 $0.69 $475 Average 1,644 $1,484 $0.99 $488 Subtotal 7 Overall Average 1,375 $2,160 $1.89 $1,119 Total 19

Source: Craigslist; Zillow; Economic & Planning Systems

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RENTAL RATES – SURVEY RESULTS

MARKET RATE AND DEED RESTRICTED

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SAN MIGUEL COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT

HOUSEHOLD SURVEY

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HOUSEHOLD SURVEY

Survey vey Overvi view: ew:

  • 3,850 surveys distributed, 806 responses received, 21% respon
  • nse

se rate Major Findings gs (Change e since e 2011):

  • Household incomes have increased – median of $50,000 to $80,000
  • Average wage growth – 1.9 percent per year
  • Number of jobs per employee have increased – 1.3 to 1.5
  • Average household sizes have increased – 2.1 to 2.4
  • There are fewer adults that are living alone – 41% to 27% in rental housing
  • These factors have resulted in significant pressure on the existing housing stock

OVERVIEW AND MAJOR FINDINGS

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HOUSEHOLD SURVEY

OWN/RENT - 2018 COMPARED TO 2011

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HOUSEHOLD SURVEY

HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION: OWN AND RENT

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HOUSEHOLD SURVEY

RESIDENCE TYPE BY OWNERS AND RENTERS (2018 – COMPARED TO 2011)

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HOUSEHOLD SURVEY

PREFERRED HOME TYPE

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HOUSEHOLD SURVEY

WILLINGNESS TO PAY TO OWN

Description Ownership Households Renter Households All Households Price not to exceed: Less than $100,000 3% 1% 2% $100,000 - 199,999 0% 9% 5% $200,000 - 299,999 22% 32% 29% $300,000 - 399,999 28% 23% 25% $400,000 - 499,999 17% 15% 16% $500,000 or more 30% 21% 23% Total 100% 100% 100% Average $395,251 $366,340 $372,435 Median $366,816 $300,000 $350,000

Source: SM RHA Household Survey; RRC; Economic & Planning Systems

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HOUSEHOLD SURVEY

HOUSING ISSUE – 2018 COMPARED TO 2011

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HOUSEHOLD SURVEY

HOUSING SATISFACTION – 2018 COMPARED TO 2011

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HOUSEHOLD SURVEY

LIKELIHOOD TO MOVE – 2018 COMPARED TO 2011

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HOUSEHOLD SURVEY

IF MOVE, WOULD YOU LIKE TO RENT OR BUY – 2018 COMPARED TO 2011

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HOUSEHOLD SURVEY

IF WANT TO RENT, WHY (CHECK ALL THAT APPLY) – 2018 COMPARED TO 2011

Cost / price related

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HOUSEHOLD SURVEY

WHERE LIVE NOW BY HOUSING LOCATION PREFERENCE - 2018

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SAN MIGUEL COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT

COMMUTING

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COMMUTING

# OF EMPLOYEES BY HOME LOCATION

Place of residence of employee: Total Employees % of Total San Miguel County Telluride / Mountain Village / Laws 1,592 47.6% Ophir / Ilium / Placerville / Sawpit 261 7.8% Norwood 477 14.3% Egnar / Slick Rock 33 1.0% Subtotal 2,363 70.7% Outisde San Miguel County Rico / Dolores / Cortez 141 4.2% Ridgway / Ouray / Montrose 647 19.4% Nucla / Naturita / Redvale / Bedrock 98 2.9% Elsewhere in region 94 2.8% Subtotal 980 29.3% Total Employees 3,343 100.0% Total In-Commuters 980 29.3% Total In-Commuters w/ Norwood 1,457 43.6%

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COMMUTING

COMMUTING MODES- 2018 COMPARED TO 2011

38% to 44% 40% to 24%

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COMMUTING

WOULD YOU USE TRANSIT SERVICE- 2018

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COMMUTING

AVERAGE COMMUTE DISTANCE- 2018 COMPARED TO 2011

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COMMUTING

WHY DO YOU COMMUTE - 2018 COMPARED TO 2011

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COMMUTING

WHY DO YOU COMMUTE BY OWN/RENT- 2018 COMPARED TO 2011

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EMPLOYER SURVEY

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EMPLOYER SURVEY

PHYSICAL LOCATION OF YOUR BUSINESS - 2018

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EMPLOYER SURVEY

WHERE DO YOUR EMPLOYEES LIVE - 2018

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EMPLOYER SURVEY

EXTENT OF THE HOUSING PROBLEM – 2018 COMPARED TO 2011

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EMPLOYER SURVEY

PRIMARY CHALLENGES FOR RECRUITING

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EMPLOYER SURVEY

PLANS FOR NEXT 5 YEARS IN TERMS OF EMPLOYEE NUMBERS - 2018

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EMPLOYER SURVEY

HOUSING AVAILABILITY RELATED TO WORKFORCE PERFORMANCE - 2018

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EMPLOYER SURVEY

DIFFICULTY FINDING HOUSING FOR DIFFERENT CATEGORIES OF EMPLOYEES

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EMPLOYER SURVEY

PRIORITIES FOR HOUSING EMPLOYEES IN DIFFERENT CATEGORIES - 2018

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EMPLOYER SURVEY

IF WILLING TO ASSIST WITH HOUSING WOULD YOU RATHER – 2018 TO 2011

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WHAT HAS CHANGED SINCE 2011?

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TOTAL EMPLOYMENT INDEX

SAN MIGUEL COUNTY, 2005-2018

80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Employment Index

San Miguel County Colorado

Source: BLS; Economic & Planning Systems

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CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT

SAN MIGUEL COUNTY, 2011- 2016

  • Avg. Wage (2016)

$24,258 $23,335 $23,712 $33,878 $73,866 $22,380 $37,999 $42,588 $31,603 $20,787 $71,994 $51,779 $68,809 N/A N/A $41,405 $24,228 $36,374 $17,440 $26,163 $49,160 Average

262 206 123 85 69 62 61 58 58 40 23 10 8 5

  • 2
  • 4
  • 4
  • 29
  • 122

Accommodation and Food Services Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Admin and Support and Waste Mgmt and Rem Srvcs Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Health Care and Social Assistance Other Services, except Public Administration Manufacturing Retail Trade Educational Services Finance and Insurance Wholesale Trade Management of Companies and Enterprises Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Utilities Transportation and Warehousing Public Administration Information Construction

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RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY

SAN MIGUEL COUNTY, 1990-2016 (U.S. CENSUS)

137 192 169 220 353 114 152 114 178 145 142 134 100 96 129 213 163 156 125 44 47 28 25 22 36 32 35

1990-2016 Avg., 122 2010-2016 Avg., 32 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Units Building Permits 1990-2016 Avg. 2010-2016 Avg.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Economic & Planning Systems

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HOUSING CONSTRUCTION

DEED RESTRICTED AND MARKET RATE, SAN MIGUEL COUNTY

864 718 357 753 145 127 425 166 326 126 45 36

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2017

New Housing Units

Market Rate Deed Restricted

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HOUSEHOLD SURVEY

HOUSING ISSUE – 2018 COMPARED TO 2011

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EMPLOYER SURVEY

EXTENT OF THE HOUSING PROBLEM – 2018 COMPARED TO 2011

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HOUSING GAPS

OWNERSHIP

Market Rate Deed-Restricted

  • 3.2%
  • 2.1%
  • 1.1%
  • 4.7%
  • 7.0%
  • 8.9%
  • 5.2%

32.1%

  • 25.0%

0.0% 25.0% 50.0%

< 30% 31% - 50% 51% - 80% 81% - 100% 101% - 120% 121% - 150% 151% - 200% > 200%

  • 3.3%
  • 2.6%

15.4% 13.1% 1.7%

  • 9.9%
  • 4.9%
  • 9.5%
  • 25.0%

0.0% 25.0% 50.0%

< 30% 31% - 50% 51% - 80% 81% - 100% 101% - 120% 121% - 150% 151% - 200% > 200%

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HOUSING GAPS

RENTAL

Market Rate Deed-Restricted

6.2% 45.0% 6.2%

  • 12.3%
  • 12.7%
  • 16.2%
  • 6.2%
  • 10.0%
  • 25.0%

0.0% 25.0% 50.0%

< 30% 31% - 50% 51% - 80% 81% - 100% 101% - 120% 121% - 150% 151% - 200% > 200%

  • 4.2%

13.8% 8.5% 0.7%

  • 4.9%
  • 5.2%
  • 1.3%
  • 7.6%
  • 25.0%

0.0% 25.0% 50.0%

< 30% 31% - 50% 51% - 80% 81% - 100% 101% - 120% 121% - 150% 151% - 200% > 200%

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EXISTING HOUSING NEED (“CATCH-UP”)

Unfilled ed Jobs

  • Total unfilled jobs

= 150

  • Additional employees needed

= 100 (1.5 jobs per employee)

  • Additio

tional housing g units s needed ded = 6 64 (1.56 employees per household) NEED BASED ON UNFILLED JOBS

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EXISTING HOUSING NEED (“CATCH-UP”)

In In-Commuters ters

  • Total in-commuters

= 980 (from outside SMC)

  • Number that want to move

= 588 (60% of total in-commuters)

  • Additio

tional housing g units s needed ded = 3 377 (1.56 employees per household)

TOTAL = 6 64 + + 37 377 = = 44 441 C Catch Up Up Housing ing Un Unit its

NEED BASED IN-COMMUTERS

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HOUSING NEED DISTRIBUTION

BY PREFERRED TYPE, PREFERRED LOCATION, AND EXISTING EMP. DIST.

Home Locat atio ion n Prefe fere rence ce (SMC C Res.) Home Type Prefe fere renc nce (SMC C Res.) Existing Emp. Distribution (‘15)

59% 12% 11% 7% 7% 5% Single-family house Condo Apartment Mobile home Townhouse/duplex Other 38% 36% 5% 22% Telluride Mountain Village Norwood Other 49.0% 24.0% 11.0% 11.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% Telluride Norwood / Placerville Area Mountain Village Other San Miguel County Lawson Hill Ridgway Outside San Miguel County

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EXISTING NEED BY LOCATION PREF. AND TENURE

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EXISTING NEED BY TYPE

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EXISTING NEED BY EMPLOYMENT DIST.

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SAN MIGUEL COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT

WHAT DOES THE FUTURE LOOK LIKE?

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EMPLOYMENT FORECAST

SAN MIGUEL COUNTY, 2016-2030 (EPS/DOLA)

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

DOLA Forecast EPS Forecast Historic

Source: DOLA; Economic & Planning Systems

  • DOLA Forecast – 2.7% per year, 2026 Emp. = 9,747
  • EPS Forecast – 1.0% per year, 2026 Emp. = 8,026
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EMPLOYMENT AND HOUSING DEMAND FORECAST

Jobs to Housi sing g Demand (Keep – Up)

  • Forecasts – 1.0% per year (EPS Forecast)
  • Total Jobs – 760 new jobs added (2016-2026)
  • Additional Employees – 507 new employees (1.5 jobs per employee)
  • Additional Housing Units – demand for 325 new housing

g units s (1.56 employees per household)

  • High Employment Growth Scenario – With an annual growth rate of 2.7% per

year, the future housing units needed increases from 325 to 948 948 units. s. SAN MIGUEL COUNTY, 2016 – 2026

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HOUSING NEED DISTRIBUTION

BY PREFERRED TYPE, PREFERRED LOCATION, AND EXISTING EMP. DIST.

Home Locat atio ion n Prefe fere rence ce (SMC C Res.) Home Type Prefe fere renc nce (SMC C Res.) Existing Emp. Distribution (‘15)

59% 12% 11% 7% 7% 5% Single-family house Condo Apartment Mobile home Townhouse/duplex Other 38% 36% 5% 22% Telluride Mountain Village Norwood Other 49.0% 24.0% 11.0% 11.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% Telluride Norwood / Placerville Area Mountain Village Other San Miguel County Lawson Hill Ridgway Outside San Miguel County

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HOUSING NEED DISTRIBUTION

EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION: HOUSING NEED BY AREA

38% 36% 5% 22% Telluride Mountain Village Norwood Other

Catch-up = 168 units Keep-up = 123 units Total = 291 Catch-up = 159 units Keep-up = 117 units Total = 276 Catch-up = 22 units Keep-up = 15 units Total = 37 Catch-up = 97 units Keep-up = 70 units Total = 167 units

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SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

1.

  • 1. The Tellurid

ride e Region

  • n is expected

ted to continue e its economic growth

– 2010 to 2016 – 900 new jobs, 150 jobs per year

2.

  • 2. Growth in t

the County has been subst stantia tial, , continuing g to put pressu ssure re on t the housing g market

– 2010 to 2016 – 107 people per year – Average market rate home in San Miguel = $1.5 million – Market rate rental rates range from $1,600/month to $2,500/month – Higher number of jobs per person – Higher commuting levels (19% in 2000, 24% in 2004, 15% in 2011, and 30% in 2018)

3.

  • 3. Following

g the Great Recessio ssion, there e was a a signifi fica cant t decline e in b building g activity ty through ghou

  • ut

t the County

– 1990 to 2016 - average of 122 units per year – 2010 to 2016 – 32 units per year

KEY FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

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SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

4.

  • 4. The community-wide

e percep eptio tion of the housi sing issue e has risen en to a new high

– 39% of residents believe housing is a critical issue in the region – In 2011, only 15% of residents believed housing was the most critical issue – An increase of about 2.5 times for employers and residents in terms of viewing housing as the most critical problem facing the community

5.

  • 5. The rental housing

g suppl ply is particularly rly strained ed

– Historically low vacancy rates for all property types

6.

  • 6. There

e is greater er concern rn among employer ers regardi ding g the lack of available e housing

– Employers reported 150 jobs that went unfilled, largely attributed to the lack of available housing

KEY FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

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SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

7.

  • 7. The community has been successfu

essful at creating g a stron

  • ng stock

k of afford rdabl ble e housing

– Clear indication of historic investments in properties, both rental and

  • wnership, geared to lower income households

8.

  • 8. There

e is a a need for housi sing g that is based on e exist sting g demand and future e demand

– Existing (“catch-up”) need for 441 units – Future (“keep-up”) need for 325 units (2016-2026) – Future “keep up” need could be as high as 948, depending on growth rate

KEY FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

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SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

9.

  • 9. Next step

p is to build on this s study and devel elop

  • p afforda

dabl ble e housi sing strategi tegies es

– Recognize the expected mitigation requirements – Look to existing plans in place – Account for housing gains and losses – Evaluate locational options – Address tenure, absorption, timing, and ways to close financial gaps

KEY FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS