Vermont Housing Needs Assessment 2014 Housing Needs Assessment - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Vermont Housing Needs Assessment 2014

Housing Needs Assessment

Primary Work Elements

• Analyzed more than 100 demographic & economic metrics
• Conducted 90 community stakeholder interviews
• Surveyed 403 multifamily rental properties (12,012 units)
• Surveyed 284 non-conventional rentals
• Evaluated 243 mobile home parks with 7,162 Lots
• Analyzed for-sale data on 30,252 units (8,691 listed/21,561 sold)
• Surveyed 73 Senior Care Facilities (Residential Care, Nursing Home, &

Assisted Living)

• Completed a housing needs/gap analysis by tenure & affordability
• Made more than 400 contacts with individuals & organizations
• Over 600 housing properties were visited and rated
• Provided recommendations to address housing needs

Geographic Study Areas

Analysis Conducted

• n a Statewide Basis

with Individual County Comparisons

• Statewide Analysis
• County Chapter

Analysis

• Fact Sheets (both

Statewide & County)

Vermont & US Household Trends

1.8% 2.4% 3.5% 3.8% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 2010-2015 2015-2020

Year P e rc e nt C ha nge

Vermont US

Vermont & US Population Trends

1.6% 1.1% 3.2% 3.7% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 2010-2015 2015-2020 Year P e r c e n t C h a n g e Vermont US

Vermont is projected to add 9,700 (1.6%) people b/w 2010-15, and 7,040 (1.1%) b/w 2015-20; Below U.S. average changes Vermont is projected to add 6,060 (2.4%) households b/w 2010-15, and 4,768 (1.8%) b/w 2015-20; Less than U.S. average changes

Demographic Highlights

Population Trends

Vermont County/State Population Change (2015-2020)

1.0% 0.2% 0.7% 2.9% 0.0% 2.4%

• 0.2%

3.6% 0.9% 0.9%

• 0.9%

0.1%

• 0.7% -0.2%

1.1%

• 1.0%
• 0.5%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%

Percent Change

Addison Bennington Caledonia Chittenden Essex Franklin Grand Isle Lamoille Orange Orleans Rutland Washington Windham Windsor Vermont

• Pop. Growth 2015-2020

1. Chittenden (4,659, 2.9%) 2. Franklin (1,182, 2.4%) 3. Lamoille (910, 3.6%) 4. Addison (374, 1.0%)

• Pop. Decline 2015-2020

1. Rutland (-527, 0.9%) 2. Windham (-293, 0.7%) 3. Windsor (-141, 0.2%) 4. Grand Isle (-13, 0.2%)

10 counties are projected to grow, while 4 will decline; Chittenden County’s 4,659 projected growth represents two-thirds

• f

entire state’s growth.

Demographic Highlights

County Population Trends

Vermont Population by Age (2015-2020)

6.9% 10.0% 15.6% 14.7% 11.6% 11.4% 29.9% 7.3% 12.1% 16.1% 13.1% 11.2% 11.5% 28.7%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% <25 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75+

Age Range Share 2015 2020

Between 2015-2020, greatest population increase will be among ages 65-74 (14,245, 22.4%); Largest 2020 share (16.1%) among 55-64 age group. County level growth will be most rapid among ages 65-74 in Chittenden, Rutland, Washington, Windham & Windsor.

Demographic Highlights

Population Trends

2015 County Senior Population 1. Chittenden 43,073 2. Rutland 22,095 3. Windsor 21,493 4. Washington 19,789 5. Windham 16,118 6. Franklin 14,034 7. Bennington 13,926 8. Addison 12,158 9. Caledonia 10,793

• 10. Orange 10,323

Number of People Age 55+ by County (2015)

Demographic Highlights

Demographic Highlights

Households by Tenure Tenure

Vermont Households by Tenure (2010-2020)

70.7% 71.1% 71.2% 28.9% 28.8% 29.3%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 2010 2015 2020

Year Share Owner-Occupied Renter-Occupied

Renter Households Owner Households 2015 75,784 186,718 2020 77,051 190,219 Change 1,267 3,501 % Change 1.7% 1.9% Vermont renter households are projected to grow 1.7%, while owner households will grow 1.9%. These are slower than U.S. averages of 4.4% and 3.5%.

Share of homeowners will remain above 70% in 2015 and 2020, above the U.S. average (63%). The owner share in Vermont is projected to remain during this time.

Vermont County/State Household Trends (2015-2020)

2.0% 0.9% 1.3% 3.7% 0.9% 3.2% 0.4% 4.3% 1.9% 1.7%

• 0.1%

0.7% 0.1% 0.4% 1.8%

• 0.5%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5%

Percent Change

Addison Bennington Caledonia Chittenden Essex Franklin Grand Isle Lamoille Orange Orleans Rutland Washington Windham Windsor Vermont

Greatest Projected HH % Growth 2015-2020 1.Lamoille (4.3%) 2.Chittenden (3.7%) 3.Franklin (2.3%) 4.Addison (2.0%) Greatest Projected HH # Growth 2015-2020 1.Chittenden (2,375) 2.Franklin (615) 3.Lamoille (441) 4.Addison (291)

Demographic Highlights

County Household Trends

2015 County Renter Household Shares 1. Chittenden (34.4%) 2. Windham (31.2%) 3. Rutland (29.7%) 4. Washington (29.6%) 5. Lamoille (28.6%) 6. Bennington (28.3%) 7. Windsor (27.4%) 8. Caledonia (26.2%) 9. Franklin ( 24.8%)

Renter Household Shares by County

Demographic Highlights

Between 2015-2020, greatest increase in the number of household will be among ages 65-74 (8,339, 26.5%) and 55-64 (4,837, 9.0%). Greatest decline in the number of households by age will be among ages 45-54 (5,747, 9.9%). Households are aging in place, moving from one age segment to another. HH Growth 2015-2020 Ages 65 to 74 1. Chittenden (1,735, 22.3%) 2. Washington (869, 23.0%) 3. Rutland (788, 18.1%) 4. Windham (650, 20.5%) 5. Franklin (608, 20.4%) Ages 55 to 64 1. Chittenden (1,085, 8.4%) 2. Franklin (286, 6.9%)

Households by Age (Number)

Demographic Highlights

Vermont Households by Age (2015-2020)

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000 <25 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75+

Age Households 2015 2020

Vermont Households by Age (2015-2020)

4.0% 12.7% 14.9% 19.9% 22.3% 15.1% 11.0% 3.7% 12.7% 14.1% 17.4% 22.6% 18.0% 11.6%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% <25 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75+

Age Range Share 2015 2020

Largest 2015 household share (22.3%) among 55-64 age group. This age group will increase to 22.6% of all households by 2020. Households b/w ages 65-74 will overtake those b/w 45-54 as 2nd largest share by 2020. Households between ages 45-54 will experience the greatest decline in share of households, decreasing from 19.9% (2015) to 17.4% (2020).

Households by Age (Shares)

Demographic Highlights

• One-persons

households will comprise the largest share of renter HHs

• One-person HHs will

increase by 1,170 b/w 2015 and 2020

Household Sizes

Demographic Highlights

Vermont Persons per Owner Household (2015-2020)

6.5% 13.2% 16.3% 41.1% 22.9% 6.3% 13.0% 16.3% 40.8% 23.5% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 1-Person 2-Persons 3-Persons 4-Persons 5-Persons

Household Size Share 2015 2020

• Two-person households

will comprise the largest share of owner HHs

• One-person HHs will

increase by 2,029 b/w 2015 and 2020

Vermont Persons per Renter Household (2015-2020)

5.2% 8.4% 13.8% 28.6% 44.1% 5.0% 8.2% 13.7% 28.3% 44.9% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 1-Person 2-Persons 3-Persons 4-Persons 5-Persons

Household Size Share 2015 2020

Vermont Household Income by Tenure (2015)

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% <$10,000 $10,000 - $19,999 $20,000 - $29,999 $30,000 - $39,999 $40,000 - $49,999 $50,000 - $59,999 $60,000 - $99,999 $100,000+

Household Income Share Renter Households Owner Households

Demographic Highlights

Household Incomes

Largest share (19.1%) of renter households make b/w $10k-$20k Largest share (27.9%) of owner households make b/w $60k-$100k Highest median incomes in the northwest portion of state

$40,000

Source: ESRI, HISTA and Bowen National Research

Owner Households by Income – Vermont

<$10,000 $10,000 – $19,999 $20,000 – $29,999 $30,000 – $39,999 $40,000 – $49,999 $50,000 – $59,999 $60,000 – $99,999 $100,000+ Total

Change 106

• 91

213 156

• 32
• 340
• 132

3,622 3,501 % Change 1.4%

• 0.6%

1.3% 0.9%

• 0.2%
• 2.0%
• 0.2%

8.7% 1.9% Renter Households by Income – Vermont

<$10,000 $10,000 – $19,999 $20,000 – $29,999 $30,000 – $39,999 $40,000 – $49,999 $50,000 – $59,999 $60,000 – $99,999 $100,000+ Total

Change

• 17
• 71
• 214
• 121

196

• 7

627 877 1,267 % Change

• 0.2%
• 0.5%
• 1.8%
• 1.2%

2.7%

• 0.1%

5.8% 17.8% 1.7%

Demographic Highlights

Household Income Growth by Tenure

Vermont County/State Income Below Poverty Level

11.3% 10.9% 13.4% 10.8% 16.9% 10.5% 6.4% 12.0% 10.1% 14.3% 11.8% 10.4% 11.1% 9.7% 11.1% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0%

Percent of Population

Addison Bennington Caledonia Chittenden Essex Franklin Grand Isle Lamoille Orange Orleans Rutland Washington Windham Windsor Vermont

Notable Poverty Rates:

• 11.1% of the state, 69,575 people
• 13.7% or 1 in 7 children (< age 18)
• 8.0% or 1 in 12 seniors (age 65+)
• Highest county rates: Essex 16.9% &

Orleans 14.3%; Northeast quadrant

Demographic Highlights

Population Living in Poverty

Vermont Cost Burdened Households by Tenure

32.9% 47.5% 12.0% 22.4%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0% Renter Owner

Tenure Percent Cost Burdened Severe Cost Burdened

Cost Burdened – Households paying over 30% of income towards housing costs Severe Cost Burdened – Households paying over 50%

• f income towards housing costs

US 47.0% US 23.9% US 30.4% US 11.9%

Demographic Highlights

Housing Issues

Vermont Special Needs Populations Special Needs Group Persons Special Needs Group Persons HIV/AIDS 633 Persons with Disabilities (PD) 82,452 Victims of Domestic Violence (VDV) 9,893 Elderly (Age 62+) (E62) 115,816 Persons with Substance Abuse (PSA) 54,000 Frail Elderly (Age 62+) (FE62) 8,581 Adults with Severe Mental Illness (SMI) 27,177 Ex-offenders (Parole/Probation) (EOP) 1,722 Co-Occurring Disorders (COD) N/A Unaccompanied Youth (UY) 460 New Immigrants/Refugees (NIR) 6,641 Note: Data sources cited in Addendum A: Sources

Special Needs Populations

Key Findings

Homeless Population

Key Findings

Source: Vermont Coalition to End Homelessness *Includes Motel Voucher Beds Chronically Homeless and Veteran Beds Duplicated

Homeless Population – Vermont Total Homeless Persons Chronically Homeless Motel Vouchers Unsheltered Households Singles Children

1,556 152 582 164 1,025 746 366

Homeless Housing Inventory – Vermont Project Type Beds by Population Category Seasonal Beds *Overflow Beds Total Beds Single Male/ Female and Households with Children Single Male & Female Veteran Chronically Homeless Domestic Violence Youth AIDS/ HIV Emergency Shelter

211 130 82 14 37 612 1,086

Transitional Housing

157 80 46 10 54 27 374

Permanent Supportive Housing

286 82 156 194 1 719

Rapid Re-housing

116 10 12 138

Safe Haven

6 6

Total Beds By Population

770 298 212 204 136 41 1 49 612 2,323

Distribution of Occupied Units by Structure and Tenure-Vermont Structure Type Owner Renter Number Share Number Share 1 Unit (Detached and Attached) 158,926 87.0% 20,372 27.5% Two Units 4,729 2.6% 11,556 15.6% Three to Four Units 1,948 1.1% 15,309 20.7% Five or More Units 2,915 1.6% 22,585 30.5% Mobile Homes 13,993 7.6% 4,153 5.6% Boat, RV, Van, Etc. 70 0.1% 7 0.1% Total 182,581 100.0% 73,982 100.0%

Source: 2013 ACS

Housing Supply (Secondary Data)

Occupied Housing Units

• In 2013 there were an estimated 256,563 occupied housing units in Vermont.
• Owner occupied comprised 71.2%, while renter occupied represented 28.8%.
• Most (87%) of owner-occupied units are 1-unit structures, while renter-occupied

is primarily (51.2%) comprised of three units or larger structures.

Vacancy Status by Type – Vermont Vacancy Status Number Percent For Rent 3,509 5.2% Rented, Not Occupied 1,026 1.5% For Sale Only 3,481 5.2% Sold, Not Occupied 724 1.1% Seasonal, Recreational, or Occasional Use 49,844 74.4% Migrant Workers 107 0.2% Other Vacant 8,294 12.4% Total 66,985 100.0%

Source: 2013 ACS

Housing Vacancies (Secondary Data)

Distribution of Vacancies

• While there are 66,985 vacancies in Vermont, 49,844 (74.4%) are “Seasonal…”
• When excluded to For Rent and For-Sale units, there are 6,990 vacant units in VT
• Rentals have an overall 4.5% vacancy rate, for-sale housing is 1.9% vacant

Surveyed Vermont Housing Supply Product Type Projects Surveyed Total Units Vacant Units Vacancy Rate Price/Rent Range Multifamily Apartments 403 12,012 118 1.0%/3.0% $460-$3,300 Non-Conventional Rentals 284 284

• 6.2%*

$400-$5,075 Mobile Home Parks 243 7,162 352 4.9% $285** Owner For-Sale Housing 30,252 30,252 8,691 1.9%*

• Homes Sold

21,561 21,561

• $2,000-$4,500,000

Homes Available 8,691 8,691 8,691

• $7,900-$12,500,000

Senior Care Housing 73 2,965 191 6.4%

• Residential Care

49 1,248 67 5.4% $635-$7,036 Assisted-Living 7 379 24 6.3% $675-$9,000 Nursing Care 17 1,338 100 7.5% $6,996-$14,752 Total 31,255 52,675 9,352

Surveyed/Inventoried Housing Supply

Distribution of Surveyed/Inventoried Housing Stock

*Based on Census/ACS data **Lot rental rates only (mobile homes typically rent for $600 to $975 a month) Note: 1.0% multifamily vacancy rate based on “physical” vacancy (ready to rent), 3.0% vacancy rate is based on economic vacancy

Multifamily Rental Housing Supply Program Type Projects Surveyed Total Units Vacant Units Vacancy Rate Market-Rate 46 1,649 31 1.9% Market-Rate/Tax Credit 51 2,022 33 1.6% Market-Rate/Government-Subsidized 6 412 4 1.0% Tax Credit/Market-Rate/Gov-Sub. 22 937 10 1.1% Tax Credit 65 1,284 7 0.5% Tax Credit/Government-Subsidized 79 1,773 16 0.9% Government-Subsidized 134 3,935 17 0.4% Total 403 12,012 118 1.0%

• Statewide multifamily vacancy rate is 1.0%
• 347 of 403 properties report 100% occupancy; 268 maintain wait lists

Distribution of Surveyed Multifamily Housing

Surveyed/Inventoried Housing Supply

Source: Bowen National Research (2014)

Multifamily Rental Housing Supply County Market-Rate Tax Credit Subsidized Total Units Vacancy Units Vacancy Units Vacancy Units Vacancy Addison 56 0.0% 129 0.0% 272 0.4% 457 0.2% Bennington 48 0.0% 276 0.4% 435 0.5% 759 0.4% Caledonia 54 1.9% 84 1.2% 317 1.0% 455 1.1% Chittenden 1,756 1.7% 1,516 1.6% 1,014 0.0% 4,286 1.3% Essex

• Franklin

74 0.0% 62 0.0% 436 0.9% 572 0.7% Grand Isle

• 16

0.0% 53 0.0% 69 0.0% Lamoille 7 0.0% 116 2.6% 179 0.0% 302 1.0% Orange 83 2.4% 74 0.0% 219 0.5% 376 0.8% Orleans 45 6.7% 9 0.0% 278 0.4% 332 1.2% Rutland 163 1.2% 183 0.0% 716 1.0% 1,062 0.8% Washington 97 2.1% 121 0.8% 927 1.0% 1,145 1.0% Windham 71 0.0% 290 0.0% 636 0.8% 997 0.5% Windsor 122 1.6% 282 1.4% 719 1.3% 1,123 1.3% State of Vermont 2,576 1.6% 3,158 1.1% 6,278 0.7% 12,012 1.0%

Surveyed/Inventoried Housing Supply

Source: Bowen National Research (2014)

Market-Rate

Bedroom Baths Units Distribution Vacant % Vacant Median Collected Rent

Studio 1.0 171 6.6% 2 1.2% $950 One-Bedroom 1.0 792 30.7% 11 1.4% $997 Two-Bedroom 1.0 754 29.3% 12 1.6% $1,140 Two-Bedroom 1.5 108 4.2% 0.0% $1,011 Two-Bedroom 2.0 469 18.2% 13 2.8% $1,650 Two-Bedroom 2.5 25 1.0% 0.0% $2,100 Three-Bedroom 1.0 80 3.1% 1 1.3% $975 Three-Bedroom 1.5 41 1.6% 2 4.9% $995 Three-Bedroom 2.0 72 2.8% 0.0% $2,475 Four-Bedroom 1.0 2 0.1% 0.0% $832 Four-Bedroom 2.0 61 2.4% 0.0% $3,300 Five-Bedroom 1.0 1 0.0% 0.0% $890 Total Market-Rate 2,576 100.0% 41 1.6%

• Surveyed/Inventoried Housing Supply

Distribution of Surveyed Multifamily Housing – Market-rate

Tax Credit, Non-Subsidized

Bedroom Baths Units Distribution Vacant % Vacant Median Collected Rent

Studio 1.0 81 2.6% 0.0% $583 One-Bedroom 1.0 1,239 39.2% 12 1.0% $747 Two-Bedroom 1.0 1,275 40.4% 18 1.4% $852 Two-Bedroom 1.5 80 2.5% 0.0% $878 Two-Bedroom 2.0 75 2.4% 2 2.7% $1,044 Three-Bedroom 1.0 297 9.4% 2 0.7% $977 Three-Bedroom 1.5 69 2.2% 0.0% $900 Three-Bedroom 2.0 25 0.8% 0.0% $826 Four-Bedroom 1.0 6 0.2% 0.0% $1,187 Four-Bedroom 1.5 2 0.1% 0.0% $790 Four-Bedroom 2.0 9 0.3% 1 11.1% $1,029 Total Tax Credit 3,158 100.0% 35 1.1%

• Surveyed/Inventoried Housing Supply

Distribution of Surveyed Multifamily Housing – Tax Credit

Percent of Rental Units by Quality Rating Quality Rating Range Vermont United States A Quality (Excellent) 14.2% 22.1% B Quality (Good) 43.4% 60.1% C or Lower Quality (Fair to Poor) 42.4% 17.8%

• More than 400 multifamily properties were personally seen and rated
• Properties were rated on a scale of A (Excellent) to F (Poor)
• Ratings considered exterior building conditions, architectural appeal, grounds

upkeep, and landscaping; but did not include interior considerations

• Compared to 2.2 million units rated nationwide, Vermont has a higher share of

fair (rated “C” or lower) multifamily product

Surveyed/Inventoried Housing Supply

Quality of Surveyed Multifamily Housing

Source: Bowen National Research (2014)

Surveyed/Inventoried Housing Supply

Location of Surveyed Multifamily Housing

Affordable Housing with Expiring Subsidies/Tax Credits 2015 to 2020 Program Type Number of Projects Total Units Tax Credit 99 1,969 Government-Subsidized 42 1,288 Total Units 141 3,257

Surveyed/Inventoried Housing Supply

Expiring Affordable Multifamily Housing

• 141 multifamily projects with a combined total of 3,257 units are

scheduled to have expiring Tax Credits and/or subsidies from now to 2020.

• While most of these projects are expected to retain/renew affordability

provisions, they are “at risk” of being removed from the affordability sector.

• The loss of more than 3,000 “affordable” units”, will exacerbate the lack of

available affordable housing in Vermont.

• Preservation of “affordable” housing is critical to Vermont’s housing needs

Surveyed/Inventoried Housing Supply

Distribution of Surveyed Non-Conventional Housing

• Non-conventional rentals are considered one- or two-unit structures, such

as single-family homes, duplexes, and units over storefronts.

• There are an estimated 34,695 non-conventional rentals in Vermont, of

which an estimated 2,099 vacant units. This yields an overall 6.2% vacancy rate.

• Bowen National Researched identified a total 284 non-conventional rentals

in the state, representing a sample survey of available/vacant rentals.

Non-Conventional Rental Supply Bedroom Units Percent Rent Range Median Rent One-Bedroom 49 17.3% $400-$1,650 $750 Two-Bedroom 86 30.3% $500-$2,500 $1,087 Three-Bedroom 90 31.7% $600-$4,500 $1,400 Four-Bedroom+ 59 20.8% $1,100-$5,075 $2,300 Total 284

Source: Bowen National Research

Non-Conventional Rentals - Median Rents by Bedroom Type County One- Bedroom Two- Bedroom Three- Bedroom Four- Bedroom+ Addison County $750 $1,038 $1,500

• Bennington County
• $875

$1,200 $1,900 Caledonia County $488 $800 $900 $1,325 Chittenden County $1,050 $1,550 $2,400 $3,200 Essex County $450

• Franklin County

$700 $875 $1,400 $1,000 Grand Isle County $990 $975 $1,950 $1,575 Lamoille County

• $1,200

$1,450 $2,025 Orange County $1,000 $850 $1,100 $1,800 Orleans County $438 $995 $800 $1,100 Rutland County $725 $1,200 $1,100 $1,600 Washington County $835 $995 $1,200 $1,450 Windham County $718 $1,500 $1,500 $1,600 Windsor County $1,200 $1,250 $1,750 $1,625 State of Vermont $750 $1,087 $1,400 $2,300

Surveyed/Inventoried Housing Supply

Surveyed/Inventoried Housing Supply

Location of Surveyed Non-Conventional Housing

• According to Census/ACS survey data,

there are approximately 18,146 mobile homes in Vermont

• Mobile

homes represent 7.1%

• f

all

• ccupied housing units in the state
• Owner-occupied units = 13,993 (77.1%)
• Renter-occupied units = 4,153 (22.9%)
• DHCD maintains inventory on 243 mobile

home parks with 7,162 lots

• DHCD reports a 4.9% lot vacancy rate,

though likely lower due to unusable lots

Inventoried Mobile Home Parks

Surveyed/Inventoried Housing Supply

Mobile Home Parks by County County M.H. Parks Total Lots Vacant Lots Vacancy Rate

Addison County 15 389 8 2.1% Bennington County 25 747 44 5.9% Caledonia County 12 375 58 15.5% Chittenden County 25 1,857 24 1.3% Essex County 2 42 3 7.1% Franklin County 27 464 22 4.7% Grand Isle County 2 32 5 15.6% Lamoille County 8 323 26 8.0% Orange County 15 281 20 7.1% Orleans County 8 218 16 7.3% Rutland County 28 452 23 5.1% Washington County 25 607 72 11.9% Windham County 17 507 5 1.0% Windsor County 35 866 27 3.1% State of Vermont 243 7,162 352 4.9%

Source: DHCD Housing Division and Bowen National Research, LLC

Surveyed/Inventoried Housing Supply

Vermont Mobile Home Lots by Year Established

6.4% 2.5% 16.9% 15.9% 50.9% 6.8% 0.6%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0% Before 1960 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2009 N/A

Year Share of Lots

Vermont County/State Mobile Home Park Vacancy Rates

2.1% 5.9% 15.5% 1.3% 7.1% 4.7% 15.6% 8.0% 7.1% 7.3% 5.1% 11.9% 1.0% 3.1% 4.9% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0% 14.0% 15.0% 16.0%

Vacancy Rate

Addison Bennington Caledonia Chittenden Essex Franklin Grand Isle Lamoille Orange Orleans Rutland Washington Windham Windsor Vermont

Surveyed/Inventoried Housing Supply

• Half of mobile home parks

were established b/w 1940 and 1949

• Combined two-thirds

established before 1950

• Less than 10% of parks

established since 1990

Mobile home park vacancy rates lowest in Addison, Chittenden, & Windham Counties Inventoried Mobile Home Parks

Mobile Home Parks by Quality Rating Quality Rating Mobile Home Parks Neighborhood A 2 B 42 55 C 93 108 D or Lower 30 4

Source: DHCD Housing Division and Bowen National Research, LLC

Base Mobile Home Park Lot Rents by Year Year Median Lot Rent % Change 2009 $268

• 2010

$272 1.5% 2011 $275 1.1% 2012 $278 1.1% 2013 $285 2.5%

Source: DHCD Housing Division and Bowen National Research, LLC

Surveyed/Inventoried Housing Supply

• 167 mobile home parks were visited and

rated (both the parks & neighborhood)

• Nearly three-fourths of evaluated parks

rated “C” or lower

• Mobile home park lot rents have

trended up slowly (1.6% average) since 2009.

• Average

lot rent (2013) was $285, while surveyed mobile home units have rents typically ranging from $600 to $975 a month.

Inventoried and Evaluated Mobile Home Parks

Owner For-Sale/Sold Housing Supply Type Homes Median Price Available 8,691 $245,000 Sold 21,561 $206,700

Source: Multiple Listing Service-NNEREN and Bowen National Research, LLC

Surveyed/Inventoried Housing Supply

• According to Census/ACS data, there are 182,581 owner-occupied

housing units in the state

• A reported 3,481 for-sale units are classified as “vacant” yielding an
• verall 1.9% vacancy rate
• Using MLS Data, there were approximately 21,561 homes sold from

January 2010 to October 2014, and 8,691 homes currently listed as available for purchase

• Median price for sold product is $206,700
• Median price for available product is $245,000 (Note: Historically, the

actual sales price is on average 6.4% lower than the list price) Owner For-Sale Housing

Vermont Owner For-Sale Housing by Year Sold Year Units Sold Median Price Sold Number Change Price Change 2010 3,985

• $201,000
• 2011

3,994 0.3% $208,000 3.5% 2012 4,600 15.2% $205,000

• 1.4%

2013 5,236 13.8% $211,000 2.9% 2014* 3,746

• $208,000
• Source: Multiple Listing Service-NNEREN and Bowen National Research, LLC

*Through October

Vermont Annual Home Sales (2010-2013)

3,985 3,994 5,236 4,600

3,900 4,100 4,300 4,500 4,700 4,900 5,100 5,300

2010 2011 2012 2013 Year Homes Sold

Vermont Annual Median Sales Price (2010-2013)

$211,000 $205,000 $208,000 $201,000

$200,000 $202,500 $205,000 $207,500 $210,000 $212,500 $215,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 Year Price

Surveyed/Inventoried Housing Supply

Owner For-Sale Housing – Historical Sales Trends

Vermont Available For-Sale Housing by Price

1,136 1,142 2,682 774 2,142 615

250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250 2,500 2,750 Less than $100K $100k-$199,999 $200k-$299,999 $300k-$399,999 $400k-$499,000 $500,000+

Price Range Homes

• 8,961 homes were listed as for-sale housing as of October 2014
• Nearly one-third of listed homes are priced b/w $100,000 & $199,999, &

nearly one-fourth are priced between $200,000 & $299,999.

• Less than 10% of for-sale homes are priced under $100,000
• Windsor (1,269), Rutland (1,022) and Chittenden (812) counties have the

most available for-sale product

Surveyed/Inventoried Housing Supply

Owner For-Sale Housing – Available Inventory

Available Owner For-Sale Housing

Total Units State Share Low List Price High List Price Average List Price Median List Price Average Days On Market

Addison County 425 4.9% $40,000 $2,650,000 $354,715 $269,000 203 Bennington County 778 9.0% $31,000 $4,450,000 $431,820 $295,000 229 Caledonia County 482 5.5% $28,500 $2,900,000 $206,693 $160,000 188 Chittenden County 812 9.3% $50,000 $4,995,000 $455,518 $359,450 141 Essex County 175 2.0% $14,000 $775,000 $164,245 $129,900 266 Franklin County 553 6.4% $19,000 $1,495,000 $228,054 $199,900 168 Grand Isle County 209 2.4% $39,900 $2,999,000 $380,917 $280,000 193 Lamoille County 436 5.0% $25,500 $12,500,000 $514,702 $294,750 184 Orange County 382 4.4% $33,900 $2,495,000 $281,071 $209,750 187 Orleans County 577 6.6% $7,900 $2,999,000 $254,895 $189,000 224 Rutland County 1,022 11.8% $13,900 $3,900,000 $283,520 $199,250 215 Washington County 661 7.6% $19,900 $6,500,000 $325,475 $239,900 210 Windham County 910 10.5% $23,000 $5,350,000 $358,130 $233,750 232 Windsor County 1,269 14.6% $14,000 $9,200,000 $466,960 $285,000 245 Vermont 8,691 100.0% $7,900 $12,500,000 $355,875 $245,000 208

Source: Multiple Listing Service-NNEREN and Bowen National Research, LLC

Surveyed/Inventoried Housing Supply

Vermont County/State Available For-Sale Median List Price

$269,000 $295,000 $160,000 $359,450 $129,900 $199,900 $280,000 $294,750 $209,750 $189,000 $199,250 $239,900 $233,750 $285,000 $245,000

$125,000 $145,000 $165,000 $185,000 $205,000 $225,000 $245,000 $265,000 $285,000 $305,000 $325,000 $345,000 $365,000

Median Price

Addison Bennington Caledonia Chittenden Essex Franklin Grand Isle Lamoille Orange Orleans Rutland Washington Windham Windsor Vermont

Vermont County/State Available For-Sale Average Days on Market

203 229 188 141 266 168 193 184 187 224 215 210 232 245 208

25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275

Days on Market

Addison Bennington Caledonia Chittenden Essex Franklin Grand Isle Lamoille Orange Orleans Rutland Washington Windham Windsor Vermont

Surveyed/Inventoried Housing Supply

• State average days on market

(DOM) is 208

• Longest DOM are Essex (266),

Windsor (245) & Windham (232)

• Shortest

DOM are Chittenden (141) & Franklin (168)

• Statewide

median list price is $245,000

• Highest

median list prices are Chittenden ($359,450), Bennington ($295,000) & Lamoille ($294,750)

• Lowest

median list prices are Essex ($129,900), Caledonia ($160,000), & Orleans ($189,000)

Owner For-Sale Housing – Available Inventory

Available Owner For-Sale Housing Units by List Price (Percent) County <$100,000 $100,000 – $199,999 $200,000 – $299,999 $300,000 – $399,999 $400,000 – $499,999 $500,000+ Addison County 18 (4.2%) 112 (26.4%) 135 (31.8%) 72 (16.9%) 33 (7.8%) 55 (12.9%) Bennington County 42 (5.4%) 222 (28.5%) 149 (19.2%) 104 (13.4%) 63 (8.1%) 198 (25.4%) Caledonia County 100 (20.8%) 219 (45.4%) 86 (17.8%) 43 (8.9%) 11 (2.3%) 23 (4.8%) Chittenden County 8 (1.0%) 71 (8.7%) 232 (28.6%) 177 (21.8%) 119 (14.7%) 205 (25.2%) Essex County 60 (34.3%) 73 (41.7%) 26 (14.8%) 8 (4.6%) 4 (2.3%) 4 (2.3%) Franklin County 64 (11.6%) 217 (39.2%) 174 (31.5%) 58 (10.5%) 23 (4.1%) 17 (3.1%) Grand Isle County 16 (7.7%) 54 (25.8%) 47 (22.5%) 31 (14.8%) 16 (7.7%) 45 (21.5%) Lamoille County 21 (4.8%) 110 (25.2%) 102 (23.5%) 61 (14.0%) 39 (8.9%) 103 (23.6%) Orange County 45 (11.8%) 144 (37.7%) 98 (25.7%) 44 (11.5%) 15 (3.9%) 36 (9.4%) Orleans County 100 (17.3%) 221 (38.3%) 127 (22.0%) 48 (8.3%) 36 (6.3%) 45 (7.8%) Rutland County 114 (11.1%) 410 (40.1%) 240 (23.5%) 108 (10.6%) 43 (4.2%) 107 (10.5%) Washington County 59 (8.9%) 204 (30.9%) 165 (24.9%) 94 (14.2%) 56 (8.5%) 83 (12.6%) Windham County 50 (5.5%) 315 (34.6%) 249 (27.4%) 120 (13.2%) 56 (6.1%) 120 (13.2%) Windsor County 77 (6.1%) 310 (24.4%) 312 (24.6%) 174 (13.7%) 101 (8.0%) 295 (23.2%) Vermont 774 (8.9%) 2,682 (30.9%) 2,142 (24.6%) 1,142 (13.1%) 615 (7.1%) 1,336 (15.4%)

Source: Multiple Listing Service-NNEREN and Bowen National Research, LLC

Owner For-Sale Housing – Available Inventory

Surveyed/Inventoried Housing Supply

Facility Type Facilities Surveyed Total Units/Beds Vacant Units/Beds Vacancy Rate National Vacancy Rate* Residential Care 49 1,248 67 5.4% 9.1% Assisted Living 7 379 24 6.3% 9.1% Nursing Care 17 1,338 100 7.5% 11.0% Total 73 2,965 191 6.4%

Vermont/National Senior Care Facility Vacancy Rates

7.5% 6.3% 5.4% 9.1% 11.0% 9.1%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% Residential Care Assisted Living Nursing Care

Facility Type Vacancy Rate Vermont National

• 73 (44.8%) of the state’s 163

licensed senior care facilities were surveyed

• Overall vacancy rate is 6.4%
• The surveyed Vermont senior

care facilities are performing at lower vacancy rates by product type than national averages

Surveyed/Inventoried Housing Supply

Surveyed Senior Care Facilities

*American Seniors Housing Assn.: The State of Housing

Base Rents by Product Type and County

County Residential Care Assisted Living Nursing Care Low High Median Low High Median Low High Median Addison $4,258 $6,970 $5,171 $5,400 $7,000 $5,400

• Bennington

$1,521 $7,036 $3,045

• $9,429

$10,317 $9,460 Caledonia $1,932 $3,680 $2,259

• Chittenden

$683 $5,900 $3,900 $4,350 $7,495 $5,475 $7,787 $14,752 $9,217 Essex

• Franklin

$1,400 $5,800 $3,361

• $8,091

$9,125 $8,137 Grand Isle

• Lamoille

$3,041 $3,082 $3,062

• Orange

$635 $4,000 $2,542

• Orleans

$1,825 $4,380 $3,133

• $6,996

$8,365 $7,528 Rutland $686 $4,380 $3,194

• $6,996

$8,365 $7,528 Washington $635 $4,654 $3,000

• $8,699

$9,368 $8,882 Windham $704 $4,502 $3,599 $675 $1,075 $845

• Windsor

$3,070 $5,019 $3,423 $2,860 $9,000 $3,930 $8,213 $8,912 $8,365 Vermont $635 $7,036 $3,164 $675 $9,000 $4,665 $6,996 $14,752 $8,882

Surveyed/Inventoried Housing Supply

Senior Care Facilities by Quality Ratings Quality Rating Facilities Surrounding Neighborhood A 6 1 B 45 43 C 59 65 D or Lower

Source: Bowen National Research

• Over 100 senior care facilities were visited and evaluated in the state
• Property exteriors were evaluated based on building condition, aesthetic

appeal, grounds upkeep and landscaping

• Properties were rated on a scale of “A” (Excellent) to “F” (Poor); Both the

properties and their neighborhoods were rated.

• The largest share (53.6%) of product was rated “C” (Fair) condition; Few

projects were rated “A” (Excellent) and none rated “D” or lower (Poor)

Surveyed/Inventoried Housing Supply

Visited and Evaluated Senior Care Facilities

Surveyed/Inventoried Housing Supply

Locations of Senior Care Facilities

Stakeholder Interviews

• During September & October, 90 interviews/surveys were conducted

statewide with stakeholders (public and private sector, with representation of all counties)

• Conducted personal interviews and on-line survey with 27 questions
• Topics covered:

– Housing Needs & Issues – Barriers to Housing Development – Homeless Housing Needs – Special Needs Housing Overview of Scope

Stakeholder Interviews - General

Greatest Needs:

• Rentals, Homeless, Senior (Indep.),

Special Needs, & Small Family

• Apartments

are the product type most needed

• Renovation/revitalization should be

priority over new construction

• Households with incomes less than

$25k have greatest need, followed by households with incomes of $25k to $50k

Biggest Issues:

• Rent Burdened/Affordability
• Limited Availability
• Substandard Housing

Funding Types Needed:

• Vouchers
• Project-Based Subsidies

Important Factors Affecting Housing Development:

• Proximity to Community Services
• Proximity to Employment
• Walkability

Barriers/Obstacles to Development:

• Lack
• f
• r

Limited Access to Transportation

• Securing Sufficient Financing
• High Cost of Land

Key Findings

• Key Findings:

– Greatest Homeless Needs:

• Individual Persons
• Families

– Types of Assistance Needed:

• Voucher Assistance
• Permanent Supportive Housing

– Greatest Obstacles

• Public Perception/NIMBYism
• Lack of Funding
• Lack of Homeless Services

Stakeholder Interviews - Homeless

Stakeholder Interviews – Special Needs

• Key Findings:

– Greatest Special Needs Housing Needs:

• Ex-Offenders
• Persons with Physical/Developmental Disabilities
• Severely Mentally Ill

– Types of Assistance Needed:

• Permanent Supportive Housing

– Greatest Obstacles

• Lack of Public Support
• Lack of Awareness

Housing Gap/Needs Analysis Components Rental Housing Owner Housing Renter Household Growth Owner Household Growth Rent Overburdened Households** Cost Overburdened Households** Overcrowded Housing Overcrowded Housing Housing Lacking Complete Indoor Plumbing Housing Lacking Complete Indoor Plumbing Pipeline Development*  Pipeline Development*

*Units under construction, permitted, planned or proposed **Included in the housing needs estimates only

The housing needs estimates are considered a broad evaluation of the needs of the state. Representative of all housing needs. The housing gap analysis estimates are considered a more conservative representation of the housing shortage in the state and indicative of the more immediate housing shortages of the state.

Housing Needs/Gap Estimates

Demand Component Rental Housing Needs Estimates – Family Households Percent Of Median Household Income <30% (<$20,000) 30%-50% ($20,000- $40,000) 50%-80% ($40,000- $60,000) 80%-95% ($60,000- $70,000) 95%-120% ($70,000- $100,000) Total New Households (2015-20)

• 88
• 336

188 157 470 391 Cost Burdened Households 16,142 9,326 1,500 351 354 27,673 Substandard Housing 776 711 411 124 494 2,516 Development Pipeline

• 38
• 51
• 89

Total Housing Need 16,792 9,650 2,099 632 1,318 30,491 Demand Component Rental Housing Needs Estimates – Senior Households Percent Of Median Household Income <30% (<$20,000) 30%-50% ($20,000- $40,000) 50%-80% ($40,000- $60,000) 80%-95% ($60,000- $70,000) 95%-120% ($70,000- $100,000) Total New Households (2015-20) 724 635 455 142 308 2,264 Cost Burdened Households 7,221 2,815 385 133 83 10,637 Substandard Housing 347 215 106 41 163 872 Development Pipeline Total Housing Need 8,292 3,665 946 316 554 13,773

Housing Needs Estimates - Rentals

Housing Needs Estimates - Rentals

Vermont Rental Housing Need by Income

632 1,318 2,099 9,650 16,792 8,292 3,665 554 316 946

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 <30% 30% - 50% 50% - 80% 80% - 95% 95% - 120%

Percent of Median Household Income Housing Need Family Households Senior Households

Demand Component Rental Housing Gap– Family Households Percent Of Median Household Income <30% (<$20,000) 30%-50% ($20,000- $40,000) 50%-80% ($40,000- $60,000) 80%-95% ($60,000- $70,000) 95%-120% ($70,000- $100,000) Total New Households (2015-20)

• 88
• 336

188 157 470 391 Substandard Housing 776 711 411 124 494 2,516 Development Pipeline

• 38
• 51
• 89

Total Housing Gap 650 324 599 281 964 2,818 Demand Component Rental Housing Gap Estimates – Senior Households Percent Of Median Household Income <30% (<$20,000) 30%-50% ($20,000- $40,000) 50%-80% ($40,000- $60,000) 80%-95% ($60,000- $70,000) 95%-120% ($70,000- $100,000) Total New Households (2015-20) 724 635 455 142 308 2,264 Substandard Housing 347 215 106 41 163 872 Development Pipeline Total Housing Gap 1,071 850 561 183 471 3,136

Housing Gap Estimates - Rentals

Housing Gap Estimates - Rentals

Vermont Rental Housing Gap by Income

324 281 599 650 964 471 183 561 850 1,071

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 <30% 30% - 50% 50% - 80% 80% - 95% 95% - 120%

Percent of Median Household Income Housing Gap Family Households Senior Households

Demand Component Owner Housing Needs Estimates – Family Households Percent Of Median Household Income <30% (<$20,000) 30%-50% ($20,000- $40,000) 50%-80% ($40,000- $60,000) 80%-95% ($60,000- $70,000) 95%-120% ($70,000- $100,000) Total New Households (2015-20) 16 369

• 373
• 33
• 99
• 120

Cost Burdened Households 19,441 18,681 13,317 3,747 6,178 61,364 Substandard Housing 332 512 522 352 1,409 3,127 Development Pipeline

• 108
• 108

Total Housing Need 19,789 19,562 13,466 4,066 7,380 64,263 Demand Component Owner Housing Needs Estimates – Senior Households Percent Of Median Household Income <30% (<$20,000) 30%-50% ($20,000- $40,000) 50%-80% ($40,000- $60,000) 80%-95% ($60,000- $70,000) 95%-120% ($70,000- $100,000) Total New Households (2015-20) 572 1,630 1,412 670 1,758 6,042 Cost Burdened Households 14,642 12,473 7,084 2,069 2,516 38,784 Substandard Housing 250 342 278 158 631 1,659 Development Pipeline Total Housing Need 15,464 14,445 8,774 2,897 4,905 46,485

Housing Needs Estimates – For-Sale

Housing Needs Estimates – For-Sale

Vermont Owner Housing Need by Income

7,380 4,066 13,466 19,562 19,789 4,905 2,897 8,774 14,445 15,464

2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 12,500 15,000 17,500 20,000 <30% 30% - 50% 50% - 80% 80% - 95% 95% - 120%

Percent of Median Household Income Housing Need Family Households Senior Households

Demand Component Owner Housing Gap Estimates – Family Households Percent Of Median Household Income <30% (<$20,000) 30%-50% ($20,000- $40,000) 50%-80% ($40,000- $60,000) 80%-95% ($60,000- $70,000) 95%-120% ($70,000- $100,000) Total New Households (2015-20) 16 369

• 373
• 33
• 99
• 120

Substandard Housing 332 512 522 352 1,409 3,127 Development Pipeline

• 108
• 108

Total Housing Gap 348 881 149 319 1,202 2,899 Demand Component Owner Housing Gap Estimates – Senior Households Percent Of Median Household Income <30% (<$20,000) 30%-50% ($20,000- $40,000) 50%-80% ($40,000- $60,000) 80%-95% ($60,000- $70,000) 95%-120% ($70,000- $100,000) Total New Households (2015-20) 572 1,630 1,412 670 1,758 6,042 Substandard Housing 250 342 278 158 631 1,659 Development Pipeline Total Housing Gap 822 1,972 1,690 828 2,389 7,701

Housing Needs Estimates – For-Sale

Housing Needs Estimates – For-Sale

Vermont Owner Housing Gap by Income

1,202 348 149 319 881 822 1,972 1,690 828 2,389

250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250 2,500 <30% 30% - 50% 50% - 80% 80% - 95% 95% - 120%

Percent of Median Household Income Housing Gap Family Households Senior Households

Senior Care Housing Need Estimates Senior Care Housing Demand Component Demand Estimates Elderly Population Age 62 and Older by 2020 152,743 Times Share* of Elderly Population Requiring ADL Assistance X 7.4% Equals Elderly Population Requiring ADL Assistance 11,303 Divided by Average Household Size /1.46 Total Elderly Households with Person Requiring ADL Assistance 7,742 Less Existing Supply

• 6,537

Less Development Pipeline

• 40

Potential Senior Care Beds Needed by 2020 1,165

ADL – Activities of Daily Living *Share of ADL was based on data provided by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Summary Health Statistics for U.S. Population National Health Interview Survey 2011

Housing Needs Estimates – Senior Care

• Support the Development of Rental Housing (Multifamily)
• Support the Development of Senior Housing and/or Efforts to Enable

Seniors to Age in Place

• Support Home Repair/Maintenance Programs (with Emphasis on

Senior Housing)

• Support First-Time Homebuyer Programs for Low/Moderate/Middle

Income Households

• Support Affordable Housing Programs
• Encourage Local Government Entities to Provide Predevelopment

Activities

• Expand the Directory of Affordable Rental Housing (DoARH)

Recommendations

Contact Information Patrick M. Bowen Bowen National Research 155 E. Columbus St., Suite 220 Pickerington, Ohio 43147 Phone: 614-833-9300 E-Mail: patrickb@bowennational.com