Hindsight The Key to Effective Foresight Edmonton Canadian Club - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Hindsight – The Key to Effective Foresight

Edmonton Canadian Club Centennial Presented by John R. McDougall December 13, 2006

Past – Present – Future

1854 – 1928 1907 – 1997 1882 – 1952 1945 – 1977 – 1975 – 1973 –

A Short History of Nearly Everything

2000 1900 1800 1600 1400 Paper Developed Printing Press

Hudson Bay Company established

INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION E l e c t r

• m

a g n e t i c I n d u c t i

• n

B a b b a g e D i f f e r e n c e E n g i n e Telegraphy M e n d e l L a w s

• f

G e n e t i c s Steam Engine Electric Power R A I L W A Y S S T E E L & E L E C T R I C I T Y W i r e l e s s Powered flight A u t

• m

a t i c T e l E x c h a n g e L i n e a r M a p

• f

G e n e s C

• m

m e r c i a l R a d i

• 1950

ENIAC Computer T r a n s i s t

• r

S p u t n i k I n t e g r a t e d C i r c u i t s A R P A N E T V i r u s G e n

• m

e S e q u e n c e d P C i n t r

• d

u c e d A U T O , P E T R O L , R O A D S W i n d a n d W a t e r P

• w

e r I n t e r n e t F i r s t C l

• n

e d M a m m a l Human Genome Sequenced Nuclear Energy M I C R O

• P

R O C E S S O R BIO/NANO LONG WAVES TECHNOLOGY ACHIEVEMENTS Fuel Cell Int Comb

Old Fort Garry - Winnipeg

The Great Lone Land – Fort Edmonton 1870

1876 Dear Lovisa, It is a funny life I lead. I do my own trading with the Indians, going once or twice a week to sell goods and bring back furs. The way they use dogs here is to hitch up four, one ahead of another, to a flat sleigh about 12 feet long and a foot wide. On this I strap my load and away I go, running beside it all the way, through woods, over hills, down and up deep ravines, across creeks and lakes until I reach the Indian camps. I can speak Cree pretty well now, so I get on with them splendidly. Sometimes I don't reach the Indians the first night, and have to camp out in the woods all alone. I cut dry wood to make a fire, scrape the snow away and get some willows to spread on the ground for my bed. Then I melt snow to make some tea and have my supper. After that, I sit by the fire and think of you, and home. It is very lonesome. Everything is so still, except the occasional howl of a wolf or a lynx, or the cry of some night bird.

McDougall Make Edmonton Home 1879

Edmonton Agricultural Fair

Economic Value Proposition

Moving to an innovation plus economy requires a substantial increase in technology and product development and technology commercialization.

ROLE

Any Job

Low End

Manufacturing

High End Manufacturing Value Added Manufacturing INNOVATION INNOVATION PLUS PLAYER

Under developed regions Lesser “developed” regions Highly developed regions Global leaders

STRATEGY

COPY PRODUCTION EFFICIENCY VALUE CREATION LEADERSHIP

COMPETITIVE

ADVANTAGE

Cost Quality and cost (Value) Innovation Models Insight and Opportunity Foresight Innovation Systems Culture

OUTCOME

Income Wealth Quality of Life Sustainable development

A village emerges by 1885

Original McDougall store

Response to the CPR

In 1890 the Board of Trade and the Edmonton Agricultural

Society published a small pamphlet. It contained a note to immigrants and articles on where farming paid best, where returns were most certain, where the soil was most fertile, where the climate was most healthful, where land could be easily secured and why there was no railway. It described artificial conditions, natural conditions and social conditions. It told of the Edmonton district, its farm products, stock, game, fish, timber, minerals, scenery, settlement, trade prospects, the means of communication, railway prospects, why to locate now and who should come. It wound up with a short sketch of 15 or 20 of the best farmers, who they were, where they came from, when they settled here, what they had when they came and what they had now.

Klondyke Gold Rush

Low Level Bridge Replaces Ferry

And success follows

Empire Building

Edmonton’s first

modern multi- story building

• pens in 1963

and triggers downtown re- development.

McDougall for Mayor

A “Thank-you” from the Citizens

The street railway system is an accomplished fact, the new power plant is in operation, street paving has been completed

• n a comprehensive scale, the septic tank is ready for
• peration; many more important projects have now come to
• fulfilment. - Edmonton Bulletin, Dec 1908

One factor that has pushed Edmonton into the forefront is the united action of the people all working together for the common

• good. We have done away with all

sectional lines, and we have no religious or race differences. Our population is increasing rapidly, and we welcome all who prove themselves to be good citizens.

Edmonton 2005

An Alberta Scenario for 2050

• Oil sands production 9 m bpd
• Revenues $500 million per day.
• GHG production between 500,000 and 1 million tonnes per day.
• Potential water demands half the low flow of the Athabasca River.
• Direct employment 150,000, total employment 600,000.
• Provincial population 5 million.
• Waste water and solid waste more than doubles.
• Demand for electric power probably triples.
• Basic services stressed
• South of Red Deer, water is already fully allocated.
• Surface and air transport capacity will need to double.
• Education capacity must expand substantially.
• Demographic changes and income disparities.
• Immigration drives social and cultural change.
• High incomes and transient labour increases crime and violence.

Oilseed 222,000 MT Wheat 118,000 MT

Ethanol Plant Feedlot IMUS Biodiesel Plant Methanol Plant Refinery/Retail Refinery/Retail

Barley 78,000 MT Ethanol 35,000 MT Manure 180,000 MT Methane 4582 mcf Biodiesel 88,000 MT Biosolids 36,000 MT Methanol 8186 MT F e e d F a t Glycerol DDGS 42,000 MT

Integrated Agricultural Industrial Products Complex - AGRIPLEX

Heat & Power Heat & Power

Crushing Plant

Oil 89,000 MT Meal 148,000 MT Heat & Power 26,000 ha 132,000 ha 47,000 ha

A 25 km land radius can support this infrastructure. Increasing the land area by 30 % to account for yield variations requires 30 km radius.

Zero Emission City Zero Effluent – Zero Landfill

Gold Bar Wastewater Treatment Plant Liquid Stream Solids Stream Digester Nutrient Extraction Gasifier Curbside Waste Nutrients Membrane Plant Industrial Process Water Renewable Natural Gas Compost Plant Renewable Natural Gas Wastewater Biosolids

Integrated CO2 and bio-products manufacturing - ICBM

Hydrogen Methane Bio-fuels Carbonates Bio-prods

N, P, H2O

Fertilizers Animal feeds Biopolymers

Fertilizer

Natural Health Prods Chemicals 200 mtpyCO2

Bio-fibre – Value-Added Processing

Increasing Value Commodity Low Value Medium Value High Value Composites Plastics Bldg Mtls Fuels Fibre Paper OSB/MDF Strawboard Fine Chemicals Food additives Nutraceuticals Fuel Additives

Conclusion

“Of Edmonton, the centre of such a province,

the gateway to the Peace River Country and that of the great north land stretching to the arctic Ocean and from which so much may reasonably be expected, no one doubts ... or predicts anything but a great future for our city.”

John A McDougall, 1918