Hindsight Bias law of retrospectiveness, which makes all the past - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Hindsight Bias “law of retrospectiveness, which makes all the past appear a preparation for events that occur subsequently” - Leo Tolstoy in War and Peace Mentor: Prof. Amitabh Mukherjee Rabi Shanker Guha

What is Hindsight Bias?  Hindsight bias is the tendency to associate the happening of events with more probability after they have occurred than before they had occurred.  Also known as knew-it-all-along effect or creeping determinism, it is a multifaceted phenomenon that can effect different stages of designs, processes, contexts, and situations

Qualitative v/s Quantitative  Qualitative errors: are those that result when the subject substitutes the correct answer for their original answer in their recall.  Quantitative errors: on the other hand, result from them forgetting their original answer and recalling an answer closer to, but not equal to, the correct answer

Experiment  Verbal Hindsight Bias : Participants are asked general knowledge questions and their answers recorded at T 1 and later they are asked to recollect their answers at time T 2 .  Questions like: How may teeth does a mosquito have? How many countries are there in Europe?

Experiment  Visual Hindsight Bias : Participants tried to identify objects (which were deliberately blurred) and the objects gradually clarified with time.  In the hindsight judgment condition, participants were told the same objects identities at the start of the process, and were asked to try and estimate when a same-age naive peer would identify the objects

Thank You!

References 1. Bernstein et al (2011) Hindsight Bias across 3 to 95 years of age 2. Ulrich Hoffrage, Ralph Hertwig, and Gerd Gigerenzer (2000): Hindsight Bias: A By-Product of Knowledge Updating?

List of Questions (and Correct Answers) Used in the Verbal Hindsight Task 1. How many inches across is the eye of a giant squid? (15) 2. How many neck bones does a giraffe have? (7) 3. How many seats are there on a school bus? (24) 4. How many minutes does it take light from the sun to reach Earth? (8) 5. How many legs does a lobster have? (10) 6. How many provinces does Canada have? (10) 7. How many days can a cockroach live without a head? (9) 8. How many years can a parakeet live? (15) 9. How many teeth does an alligator have? (76) 10. How many miles per hour can a hippo run? (20) 11. How many countries are in South America? (13) 12. How many muscles does it take to frown? (43) 13. How many teeth does a mosquito have? (47) 14. How many pounds is a sperm whale’s brain? (20) 15. How many hours does a lion sleep in a day? (20) 16. How many countries are in Europe? (45) 17. How many moons does the planet Saturn have? (46) 18. How many weeks are female dogs pregnant? (9) 19. How many countries are there in Africa? (53) 20. How many feet can a kangaroo jump in one leap? (30)

Hindsight Bias law of retrospectiveness, which makes all the past - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Hindsight Bias law of retrospectiveness, which makes all the past - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Hindsight Bias law of retrospectiveness, which makes all the past appear a preparation for events that occur subsequently - Leo Tolstoy in War and Peace Mentor: Prof. Amitabh Mukherjee Rabi Shanker Guha What is Hindsight Bias?

Hindsight Bias of Juries in Hindsight Bias of Juries in Personal Injury Actions Courtroom

Hindsight Bias: How to deal with label leakage at scale Till Bergmann (PhD), Senior Data Scientist

Sneaky Brain Our brain is playing tricks Cognitive Bias We create our own &quot;subjective

BIAS What Is Bias? Bias can be defined as favoring one side, position, or belief being

Equity &amp; Excellence: Hidden Bias Implicit Bias Inherent Bias

bad decision bias? 2 5 6 Affinity Bias: What can we do? 2. 3. 1. Seek

BIAS BIAS LIGHT LIGHT &amp; &amp; MEDIUM MEDIUM TR TRUCK UCK TIRES TIRES Bias Bias Ligh

Bias in, Bias out: Gender Equality and the Fourth Industrial Revolution Debra Howcroft and

Expectancy bias and Bias and forensic evidence Bias and speech research forensic speech

Implicit Bias Implicit bias Implicit bias refers to attitudes or stereotypes that affect our

Bias Busting Across the Center: A Model to Interrupt Bias and Promote Inclusion Modeled on

Review Selection bias, overfitting Bias v. variance v. residual Bias-variance tradeoff

Unconscious Bias: From Awareness to Action! Did you know that we all have unconscious bias, and

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