HINDSIGHT IS 2020, FORESIGHT ISNT Darryl Moodley 4 November 2020 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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HINDSIGHT IS 2020, FORESIGHT ISN’T

Darryl Moodley

4 November 2020

2019 VS 2020

COVID-19 Brexit Slowing growth US-China Trade war Eskom

COVID-19: WHERE ARE WE NOW?

Source: John Hopkins

COUNTRIES THAT SUFFERED

SOURCE: FINANCIAL TIMES (2020)

WHAT DO THE BOOKIES THINK?

Source: Oddschecker

SOURCE: IMF ESTIMATES

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

85.0 90.0 95.0 100.0 105.0 110.0 115.0 2019:Q1 2019:Q2 2019:Q3 2019:Q4 2020:Q1 2020:Q2 2020:Q3 2020:Q4 2021:Q1 2021:Q2 2021:Q3 2021:Q4 World Advanced Economies Emerging market and developing economies excluding China China

TECH BILLIONAIRES NET WORTH RISES EXPONENTIALLY

“Covid-19 did not destroy our

• economy. We’re trying to recover

from decades of bad governance and poor ANC policies, and it is disingenuous and opportunistic to try to claim otherwise. We were in junk status long before anyone had heard

• f the word coronavirus.”

– President Cyril Ramaphosa ‘As I have called on other sectors that are key to our economy, let us use the opportunity presented by the pandemic to build back better.’ – President Cyril Ramaphosa

DEBT RATIO SCENARIOS

SOURCE: NATIONAL AUTHORITIES, IMF STAFF ESTIMATES (JUNE 2020 UPDATE)

FISCAL MEASURES TO FIGHT COVID-19

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Turkey Mexico India Russia Saudi Arabia Indonesia France Argentina Korea Spain Italy China South Africa Canada United Kingdom Brazil Australia Germany Japan United States Additional spending and forgone revenue Loans, equity, and guarantees

Fiscal stimulus as a % of GDP

SOURCE: SARB (2020)

THE REPO RATE

2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 12/12/2008 12/12/2009 12/12/2010 12/12/2011 12/12/2012 12/12/2013 12/12/2014 12/12/2015 12/12/2016 12/12/2017 12/12/2018 12/12/2019

AS AT 2 NOV 2020

FTSE/JSE ALL SHARE

IT’S CLEAR AS DAYLIGHT

• 7.1%
• 5.8%
• 1.3%

2.2% 2.7% 4.9% 8.5% 7.5%

• 50.9%
• 51.6%
• 26.5%
• 14.7%

4.7% 5.9% 6.8% 7.1% 14.6% 12.6% 11.0% 11.7% 24.3% 14.3% 9.5% 7.3%

• 60%
• 40%
• 20%

0% 20% 40% 60% YTD 1 year 3 year 5 year SA Equity SA Bonds SA Property SA Cash Global Equity Global Bonds

AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2020

PERFORMANCE

GROSS AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2020

5.6% 6.2% 0.7% 0.7% 5.0% 1.0% 0% 10% 20% Sanlam Monthly Bonus Fund Sanlam Stable Bonus Portfolio Passive Lifestage Accumulation Sanlam Blue Lifestage Accumulation Volatility Protection Strategy Sanlam Lifestage Accumulation

1 year

6.5% 7.1% 2.7% 2.7% 5.8% 2.8% 0% 10% 20% Sanlam Monthly Bonus Fund Sanlam Stable Bonus Portfolio Passive Lifestage Accumulation Sanlam Blue Lifestage Accumulation Volatility Protection Strategy Sanlam Lifestage Accumulation

3 year