GREAT LAKES WATER LEVELS 237 217 200 80 252 237 217 200 119 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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“The views, opinions and findings contained in this report are those of the authors(s) and should not be construed as an official Department of the Army position, policy or decision, unless so designated by other official documentation.”

Melissa Kropfreiter, PE Hydraulic Engineer Great Lakes Hydraulics and Hydrology USACE Detroit District 10 August 2019

GREAT LAKES WATER LEVELS

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Hudson Bay

Lake Ontario

Lake St. Clair

• St. Clair River

Detroit

Detroit River

• St. Marys River

Niagara River

Minnesota Wisconsin Michigan Illinois Indiana Ohio

PENNSYLVANIA

Quebec Ontario

Diversion Dam Control Dam Long Lake

Lake Nipigon Thunder Bay

Diversion Dam Aguasabon River Albany R i v e r

Duluth

Keweenaw Peninsula Canada United States

Sault Ste. Marie Sault Ste. Marie

Lake Superior Control Structure Straits Of Mackinac Georgian Bay

Green Bay

Green Bay Chicago Sanitary & Ship Canal Illinois Waterway

Bay City Toledo Cleveland Toronto Buffalo Oswego

Welland Canal Niagara Falls

Cape Vincent

O t t a w a River

Ottawa

Ogoki Project Long Lake Project Control Dam

Nipigon River

Ke nog ami Ri v e r Ogo ki R iver Alb any Riv e r B a s in

L a k e S u p e r i

• r

La k e M i c h a i g n

Chicago G r e a t i n a g e

L a k e H u r

• n

Lake Erie

M i s s i R i s s i p p i a i v e n r B s

Montreal

• St. Lawrence River

L a k es B as i n Milwaukee

Pennsylvania New York

Rochester Kingston

• St. Lawrence River

Control structure

Cornwall Massena

The Great Lakes Basin

• 14,000 miles of shoreline
• 95,000 square miles of water
• 200,000 square miles of land
• 8 States & 2 Provinces

MONITORING GREAT LAKES WATER LEVELS 100 years of coordinated water level data Forecasting since the 1950s

MONITORING GREAT LAKES WATER LEVELS

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Daily Average Water Levels Based on Lake-Wide Average Network

• Lake Superior: Duluth, Marquette, Pt. Iroquois, Thunder Bay, Michipicoten
• Lakes Michigan-Huron: Harbor Beach, Ludington, Mackinaw City, Milwaukee, Tobermory, Thessalon
• Lake St. Clair: St. Clair Shores, Belle River
• Lake Erie: Toledo, Cleveland, Port Stanley, Port Colborne
• Lake Ontario: Oswego, Rochester, Toronto, Kingston, Port Weller, Cobourg

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> 1 decade low water Record Rise

Record highs Record lows

GREAT LAKES WATER LEVELS (1918-2019)

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2012 VS. 2019 ON THE ST. CLAIR RIVER

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Wind Set-up

Storm Water Level Undisturbed Water Level

Wind

Lake profile showing wind set-up

HIGH WATER LEVEL IMPACTS

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• Shoreline erosion
• Less beach
• Property damage
• Greater impact from seiche

(wind) events

• Ice jams produce greater

chance for flooding Seiche

HIGH WATER PHOTOS

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Courtesy of USCG and the Port of Monroe, MI

ANNUAL WATER LEVELS AND THE HYDROLOGIC CYCLE

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WINTER SPRING SUMMER FALL

Snow accumulation

Snow melt, rainfall, increased runoff

Increased sunshine warms lake water Increased evaporation

Typical Lake Michigan-Huron Water Level

FACTORS IMPACTING WATER LEVELS

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Inflow from Upstream Lake Evaporation Precipitation Outflow Runoff

Net Basin Supply

Net Total Supply

WHAT HAPPENED IN THE LAST YEAR?

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Beginning of August 2018 Level: 602.55 ft Beginning of August 2019 Level: 603.27 ft 0.7 ft rise 0.7 ft rise

August 2018 – August 2019

• Wet Fall
• Snowy winter
• Good ice cover
• Wet spring
• High NBS

FACTORS IMPACTING WATER LEVELS AUGUST 2018 – AUGUST 2019 LAKE SUPERIOR

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Inflow from Upstream Evaporation Precipitation Runoff

Net Basin Supply

Net Total Supply

4.0 ft 3.8 ft 0.2 ft 3.3 ft*

*Pre-Project (unregulated, natural) St. Marys River flows would have been the equivalent of 3.5 ft on Lake Superior

NTS – Outflow = Change in lake level (Inflow + NBS) – Outflow = Change in lake level (0.2 + 3.8) – 3.3 = 0.7 ft Outflow

New record highs set in May, June, and July

Projected levels (dashed green line):

• Expected to be at historic

record high in August Forecasted range (shaded red area):

• 9 to 13 inches above long term

average levels

• Above last year through

October

SIX MONTH WATER LEVEL FORECAST

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1.3 ft rise from August 2018 – August 2019

• Snowy winter
• Good ice cover
• Wet spring
• High NBS

WHAT HAPPENED IN THE LAST YEAR?

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Beginning of August 2018 Level: 580.57 ft Beginning of August 2019 Level: 581.88 ft 1.3 ft rise

FACTORS IMPACTING WATER LEVELS AUGUST 2018 – AUGUST 2019 LAKE MICHIGAN-HURON

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Inflow from Upstream Lake Evaporation Precipitation Outflow Runoff

Net Basin Supply

Net Total Supply

6.9 ft 4.6 ft 5.6 ft 2.3 ft*

*Pre-Project (unregulated, natural) St. Marys River flows would have added 2.4 ft to Lake Michigan-Huron

NTS – Outflow = Change in lake level (Inflow + NBS) – Outflow = Change in lake level (2.3 + 4.6) – 5.6 = 1.3 ft

Within 1 inch of record high in June and July

Projected levels (dashed green line):

• Begin seasonal decline in

August Forecasted range (shaded red area):

• 28 to 31 inches above long

term average levels

• 7 to 15 inches above last year’s

levels

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SIX MONTH WATER LEVEL FORECAST

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LATEST WATER LEVEL INFORMATION

https://www.lre.usace.army.mil/Missions/Gre at-Lakes-Information/Great-Lakes- Information.aspx

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LIVING ON THE COAST https://www.lre.usace.army.mil/Portals/69/docs/GreatLakesInfo/docs/CoastalPro gram/Living%20on%20the%20Coast%20Booklet.pdf?ver=2016-06-06-105107- 683

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QUESTIONS?

Melissa Kropfreiter (313) 226-6443 Melissa.A.Kropfreiter@usace.army.mil