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Grain quotation behaviour
Source: CBOT
Grain quotation behaviour Source: CBOT Winter crop area, Ml ha - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Grain quotation behaviour Source: CBOT Winter crop area, Ml ha - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Black Sea Region : 2018/19 Outlook Liza Malyshko UkrAgroConsult April 2018 Grain quotation behaviour Source: CBOT Winter crop area, Ml ha Ukraine 2017 2018 Change, +/- Bulgaria 2017 2018 Change, +/- wheat 6,17 6,27 + 0,1 wheat
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Winter crop area, Ml ha
Ukraine 2017 2018 Change, +/- wheat 6,17 6,27 + 0,1 rye 0,17 0,15
- 0,02
barley 0,89 0,83
- 0,06
Total grain 7,23 7,25 + 0,02 rapeseed 0,90 1,01 +0,11 Russia 2017 2018 Change, +/- wheat 14,93 14,8
- 0,07
rye 1,18 1,15
- 0,03
barley 0,52 0,55 +0,03 Total grain 16,78 16,65
- 0,13
rapeseed 0,15 0,21 +0,06 Bulgaria 2017 2018 Change, +/- wheat 1,1 1,1 rye barley 0,14 0,12
- 0,02
Total grain 1,24 1,22
- 0,02
rapeseed 0,16 0,17 +0,01 Romania 2017 2018 Change, +/- wheat 2,02 1,98
- 0,04
rye 0,03 0,02 0,01 barley 0,47 0,43
- 0,04
Total grain 2,52 2,43
- 0,09
rapeseed 0,59 0,64 +0,05
Source: official data
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- Ukraine. Winter crops condition
Source: Ag Ministry
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- Ukraine. Fertilizers usage
Source: Statistic Committee
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Non typical Spring
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- Ukraine. Winter crops feed up
Source: Ag Ministry
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Non typical Spring. Risks
Source: Statistic Committee, Сlimate monitor
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- Ukraine. May Risks & Possibilities
year deviation from trend yield deviation from average temperature in May deviation from average precipitation in May
2006
- 4%
- 0,6
107% 2007
- 19%
3,5 34% 2008 14%
- 0,5
73% 2009 2% 70% 2010
- 20%
1,8 138% 2011 4% 0,7 90% 2012
- 13%
2,7 46% 2013 18% 2,9 118% 2014 5% 1,1 270% 2015
- 5%
0,8 70% 2016 9%
- 0,3
108% 2017
- 4%
- 0,5
54%
Source: Statistic Committee, Сlimate monitor
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Black Sea Region. Wheat crop
26,5 26,1 26,1 26,3
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Bulgaria Romania MMT 127 138 128
Source: UkrAgroConsult’s estimate
115
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2018 Margin calculation
Source: UkrAgroConsult’s estimate
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- Ukraine. Spring barley planting
Source: Ag Ministry
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Black Sea Region. Barley crop
8,28 9,45 8,3 7,75
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Bulgaria Romania MMT 31 33 34 32
Source: UkrAgroConsult’s estimate
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Black Sea Region. Grain crop
60,06 64,21 61,78 62,05
50 100 150 200 250 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Bulgaria Romania MMT 208 232 231
Source: UkrAgroConsult’s estimate
245
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Grain Export Share, 2017/18MY
ММТ Ukraine Bulgaria Romania Kazakhstan Russia Black Sea total Crop 62,5 8,7 21,6 20 133 246 Exports 42,3 5,7 11 8,6 50 118 Share, % 68% 66% 51% 43% 38% 48%
Source: UkrAgroConsult’s estimate
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- Ukraine. Production and Exports of Grain
Processing Products
Source: State Statistic Committee
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Black Sea Region. Grain Exports
38,4 44,9 41 42
20 40 60 80 100 120 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Bulgaria Romania MMT 95 107 116
Source: UkrAgroConsult’s estimate
111
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Competition in the Wheat Market
16/17 17/18*
Indonesia
1 612 1 793
India
2 932 503
Thailand
1 595 662
Bangladesh
1 720 1 393
Philippines
687 1002
Korea
1064 719
Tunisia
650 516
Egypt
2 512 1250 16/17 17/18*
Indonesia
344 1037
India
156 278
Thailand
63 65
Bangladesh
1 867 1 549
Philippines
17 165
Korea
66 240
Tunisia
221 193
Egypt
6 700 4905
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Competition in the Corn Market
Source: Custom service
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- Ukraine. Grain Exports to China
Corn Barley 2014/15 3660 251 2015/16 2465 647 2016/17 1433 300 2017/18 1856 789
2017/18 till April
2017/18 based on Jul-Jan data
Source: Custom service
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Stocks to Use in the Top-5 Main Importers
wheat corn
* Indonesia, Egypt, Algeria, Brazil, Bangladesh * EU, Mexico, Japan, Egypt, Korea
Source: USDA
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Conclusions
- Winter crops in the best condition for the last 4 years in
Ukraine
- Non typical spring brings the risks for yield of both winter and
spring crops in Black Sea Region
- Grain Crop may decrease by 5-7% to 231MMT due to some
shortage of winter grain area and weather risks
- Grain exports may decrease only by 2-3%
- Wheat competition moves to South East Asia, including
Indonesia, India, Philippine, Korea…
- Corn competition on regional level: BS vs South America
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Start up of the 2018/19 season
Commodity 2017/18 2018/19 Barley 155-158 208-212 Feed wheat 162-166 186-190 Milling wheat 173-177 196-200 Corn 168-170 190-195 Prices for new season in the mid of April
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THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION!
+380 44 451 46 34 +380 44 220 52 42 agro@ukragroconsult.org
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Start up of the 2018/19 season
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Изменение системы питания в Индонезии
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18
Wheat shipments to Indonesia
Ukraine Russia
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Conclusions
Crop is decreasing by 5-7% to 231MMT Wheat competition moves to East Asia Corn competition between regions
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Украина. Поголовье скота и птицы
Source: State Statistic Committee
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Changes in key grain area and yield exporters, %
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Что будут сеять весной?
Margin, USD/MT
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Структура экспорта пшеницы
Source: UkrAgroConsult’s estimates
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18*
Feed wheat 31,0% 57,1% 51,0% 65% Wheat 11 pro 52,3% 35,4% 40,5% 28% Wheat 12,5 pro 15,9% 7,5% 8,5% 6,9% Wheat 14 pro 0,8% 0,04% 0,0% 0,1%
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Ценовые спреды кукуруза/ячмень и кукуруза/подсолнечник
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Направления экспорта зерна
Source: UkrAgroConsult’s estimates
Wheat 17.5 Barley 5.3 Corn 21.2
India 2,9 Saudi Arabia 2,3 EU 8,6 Egypt 2,6 Libya 0,95 Egypt 3,6 Bangladesh 1,7 China 0,3 Iran 2,2 Indonesia 1,65 Algeria 0,25 China 1,4 Thailand 1,6 EU 0,4 Israel 1,0
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