Energy and Environmental Security: Energy and Environmental Security: Leveraging Human Ingenuity in an Age of Consequences Leveraging Human Ingenuity in an Age of Consequences Carol Dumaine Deputy Director Energy & Environmental Security Directorate Office of Intelligence and Counterintelligence US Department of Energy GOV 2.0 Summit RAPID FIRE: Setting the Stage Washington, DC Washington, DC 9 September 2009 9 September 2009 We live in an age of consequences that remain largely unexamined in so far as they relate to energy and environmental security. This is because energy and environmental impacts on societies have not traditionally been considered security issues. 1
What Are the Risks of Not Planning for Worst-Case Scenarios? 2 The climate crisis alone contains the potential for catastrophic impacts on factors such as water and food security and rising temperatures and sea levels. Although these issues are thoroughly integrated, the institutions meant to tackle them are not. 2
Strategic Surprise - Bolt out of the Blue Antarctica Ice Shelf Collapse 3 During the Cold War, we spared no effort preparing for a high impact – low probability event: a surprise nuclear attack. Today, we’re less invested in contingency planning on energy and environmental issues-like a catastrophic acceleration of ice sheet discharge that could raise sea levels enormously. Images: Baikonur / Kazakhstan SOVIET Launch; Nevada Nuclear Test Explosion, NNSA, Nevada Office 3
Plato’s Cave Seeing Beyond the Shadows of Present-day Concerns Plato, Book VII of The Republic 4 The Allegory of the Cave This image of the Allegory of Plato’s cave—where the audience, able to see only reflected shadows of the real world--Capture our challenge today in confronting the new security realities. 4 4
Foresight and Warning Intelligence, n. Knowledge and foreknowledge of the world around us—the prelude to decision and action … 5 Consumer Guide to Intelligence, 1999 Foresight and warning is about escaping the cave and immersing ourselves in all that we do not understand. Sometimes, in the cave, it’s difficult to identify issues of emerging security significance. It’s hard to see them in the shadows posed by present-day concerns. 5 5
Overcoming Barriers to Foresight and Risk Assessment 6 Source: Evolution’s Edge, Graeme Taylor, New Society Publishing, Canada. 2008 In this regard, for example, demographic considerations are critical. What are the implications of expected population growth to over 9 billion within forty years’ time? 6
What are the Implications of…? Tibetan Glacier Melt Extreme Weather Events Abrupt Climate Change Black Stem Rust 7 We need to consider the implications of such factors as: The decline of glaciers on the Tibetan plateau An epidemic of black stem rust affecting wheat crops in the Middle East Extreme weather events affecting energy infrastructure and fuel production capacity [As of April this year, The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations asked Pakistan and Afghanistan to be on high alert, following a report that Ug99 black wheat stem rust has moved to major wheat-growing areas including Iran. Wheat stem rust is a potential threat to regional food security. (http://islamabad.usembassy.gov/pr-09081303.html)]
Dormant, But For How Much Longer? 8 Our work to date has emphasized that climate change will not be gradual, uniform or benign. Under these conditions, preparedness and resiliency are paramount. Image: Colima Volcano, NASA Terra Satellite, Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER 8
What interactions lie beneath the “volcano”…? RESPONSES Amplifying Inequity and Grievance Governance Behavioural Boosting Norms Erosion Terrorism Radicalisation Disaffection Disrupted State Authority Economic Distressed Volatility Organised Resource State Migration Crime Conflicts collapse Resource Trade Nationalism Disruption Increased Climate Climate Energy Energy Security Security Social Temperatures Distress Change Change Scarcity Scarcity and Risk and Risk Global Environmental Population Spread of Degradation Growth Disease Extreme Weather Heat STRESSES Physical Events Stress Infrastructure Threats Biodiversity Food Loss Disruption Disrupted Agriculture Physical Social & Transport Systems Systems Disrupting Fragile Systems David Robson, Scottish Government, Understanding Dynamic Feedbacks and Connections 9 2009 Governments lack knowledge of how energy and environmental dynamics affect security. There are many underlying currents of change that have security consequences. We can think of them as seismic forces beneath a quiet volcano. What underlying forces are we not taking into consideration? 9
…and What Will Cause the Eruption? Amplifying inequity and grievance Governance Behavioural Boosting Norms Erosion Terrorism Radicalisation Disaffection Disrupted State Authority Economic Distressed Volatility Organised Resource State Migration Crime Conflicts collapse Resource Trade Nationalism Disruption Increased Increased Climate Climate Energy Energy Security Security Social Temperatures Temperatures Distress Change Change Scarcity Scarcity and Risk and Risk Abrupt Climate Global Environmental Change Population Spread of Degradation Growth Disease Extreme Weather Heat Physical Events Stress Infrastructure Threats Biodiversity Food Loss Disruption Disrupted Agriculture Physical Social & Transport Systems Systems Disrupting Fragile systems David Robson, Scottish Government, Understanding Dynamic Feedbacks and Connections 10 2009 What underlying forces are we not thinking about? Probably a great many. Many of these are global problems, whose effects multiply quickly and unpredictably in a complex system. 10
Glacier Melt and Polar Ice Loss Gangotri Glacier Himalayas 11 Melting polar ice is the proverbial canary in the coal mine for planetary health . In the last two years alone, developments not anticipated by the world’s most respected climate change scientists have occurred, including far faster-than-expected ice melting in the Arctic and other regions. 11
Challenge Water Scarcity, Food Security, and Conflict Energy and Environmental Security . . . a Global security challenge Multiple – Unexpected – Systemic - Interconnected threats Traditional approaches to analysis and collection are insufficient Food Food shortages shortages Boost Boost Organised Organised Grievances Grievances Crime Crime Boosting Boosting Social Social Radicalisation Radicalisation Stressed Stressed Turmoil Turmoil Disrupted Disrupted Migration Migration Food riots in Haiti Agriculture Agriculture Energy Energy Increased Increased Scarcity Scarcity Climate Climate temperatures temperatures Change Change Economic Economic Volatility Volatility Resource Resource New Disease New Disease Rising Sea Rising Sea conflicts conflicts Patterns Patterns Levels Levels Trade Trade Physical Physical Disruption Disruption Disrupted Disrupted Infrastructure Infrastructure Biodiversity Biodiversity State State Afghanistan ... UN food aid Threats Threats Loss Loss Authority Authority 12 Drought, food, water scarcity, conflict and high prices do not happen in isolation. They reinforce each other in non-linear, unexpected ways. Their interconnectedness can lead to widespread consequences in the wake of systems failures. 12
Understanding risks and potential consequences: Key to adaptability and foresight 13 Imagine for a moment what your life would be like if you did not know what a “red light” meant at an intersection. What’s our equivalent for understanding the visual symbols related to energy and environmental consequences? 13
Deploying Systems For Open Global Engagement: Connecting Across Boundaries Principles: Implementation So Far: Global & co-evolutionary International partnership - US initiated Recombinant international networks On-line platform and face-to-face “Bottom-up” organization Participants from many nations Collaborative foresight techniques Projects emphasizing how to factor risks and uncertainties into assessments Public sphere Unclassified, open, multidisciplinary 14 We’re working to develop new capacities for a globally interdependent world. We’re creating new communities of strategic insight and expertise, working to translate the best of science into security-related consequences and opportunities. 14 14
President Obama Calls for New Capacities 15 Earlier this year, President Obama said we need “to understand the world as it is to develop the capacities that we need to confront emerging danger and to act with purpose and pragmatism to turn this moment of peril into one of promise.” Source: Speech at National Defense University in early 2009 http://www.flickr.com/photos/whitehouse/3594694575/sizes/l/in/set- 72157619416255803/ White House Official Flickr Photostream 15
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