GOV 2.0 Summit RAPID FIRE: Setting the Stage Washington, DC - - PDF document

Energy and Environmental Security: Energy and Environmental Security: Leveraging Human Ingenuity in an Age of Consequences Leveraging Human Ingenuity in an Age of Consequences

Carol Dumaine Deputy Director Energy & Environmental Security Directorate Office of Intelligence and Counterintelligence US Department of Energy

GOV 2.0 Summit

RAPID FIRE: Setting the Stage Washington, DC Washington, DC 9 September 2009 9 September 2009

We live in an age of consequences that remain largely unexamined in so far as they relate to energy and environmental security. This is because energy and environmental impacts on societies have not traditionally been considered security issues. 1

What Are the Risks of Not Planning for Worst-Case Scenarios?

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The climate crisis alone contains the potential for catastrophic impacts on factors such as water and food security and rising temperatures and sea

• levels. Although these issues are thoroughly integrated, the institutions

meant to tackle them are not. 2

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Strategic Surprise - Bolt out of the Blue

Antarctica Ice Shelf Collapse

During the Cold War, we spared no effort preparing for a high impact – low probability event: a surprise nuclear attack. Today, we’re less invested in contingency planning on energy and environmental issues-like a catastrophic acceleration of ice sheet discharge that could raise sea levels enormously.

Images: Baikonur / Kazakhstan SOVIET Launch; Nevada Nuclear Test Explosion, NNSA, Nevada Office

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Plato, Book VII of The Republic The Allegory of the Cave

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Plato’s Cave

Seeing Beyond the Shadows of Present-day Concerns

This image of the Allegory of Plato’s cave—where the audience, able to see

• nly reflected shadows of the real world--Capture our challenge today in

confronting the new security realities. 4

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Intelligence, n. Knowledge and foreknowledge

• f the world around us—the prelude to decision

and action …

Consumer Guide to Intelligence, 1999

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Foresight and Warning

Foresight and warning is about escaping the cave and immersing ourselves in all that we do not understand. Sometimes, in the cave, it’s difficult to identify issues of emerging security significance. It’s hard to see them in the shadows posed by present-day concerns. 5

Source: Evolution’s Edge, Graeme Taylor, New Society Publishing, Canada. 2008

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Overcoming Barriers to Foresight and Risk Assessment

In this regard, for example, demographic considerations are critical. What are the implications of expected population growth to over 9 billion within forty years’ time? 6

What are the Implications of…?

Tibetan Glacier Melt Black Stem Rust Extreme Weather Events Abrupt Climate Change

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We need to consider the implications of such factors as: The decline of glaciers on the Tibetan plateau An epidemic of black stem rust affecting wheat crops in the Middle East Extreme weather events affecting energy infrastructure and fuel production capacity

[As of April this year, The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations asked Pakistan and Afghanistan to be on high alert, following a report that Ug99 black wheat stem rust has moved to major wheat-growing areas including

• Iran. Wheat stem rust is a potential threat to regional food security.

(http://islamabad.usembassy.gov/pr-09081303.html)]

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Dormant, But For How Much Longer?

Our work to date has emphasized that climate change will not be gradual, uniform or benign. Under these conditions, preparedness and resiliency are paramount. Image: Colima Volcano, NASA Terra Satellite, Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER

What interactions lie beneath the “volcano”…?

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Understanding Dynamic Feedbacks and Connections

Energy Energy Scarcity Scarcity Climate Climate Change Change Security Security and Risk and Risk

Social Systems Behavioural Norms Governance Erosion

Disrupted State Authority Organised Crime Resource Nationalism State collapse Terrorism Distressed Migration Resource Conflicts Disaffection Boosting Radicalisation Trade Disruption Economic Volatility Social Distress Global Population Growth Physical Infrastructure Threats Disrupted Agriculture & Transport Food Disruption Heat Stress Spread of Disease

Amplifying Inequity and Grievance Disrupting Fragile Systems

Physical Systems

Increased Temperatures Biodiversity Loss Environmental Degradation Extreme Weather Events

STRESSES RESPONSES

David Robson, Scottish Government, 2009

Governments lack knowledge of how energy and environmental dynamics affect security. There are many underlying currents of change that have security consequences. We can think of them as seismic forces beneath a quiet volcano. What underlying forces are we not taking into consideration? 9

Energy Energy Scarcity Scarcity Climate Climate Change Change Security Security and Risk and Risk

Social Systems Behavioural Norms Governance Erosion

Disrupted State Authority Organised Crime Resource Nationalism State collapse Terrorism Distressed Migration Resource Conflicts Disaffection Boosting Radicalisation Trade Disruption Economic Volatility Social Distress Global Population Growth Physical Infrastructure Threats Disrupted Agriculture & Transport Food Disruption Heat Stress Spread of Disease

Amplifying inequity and grievance Disrupting Fragile systems

Physical Systems

Increased Temperatures Biodiversity Loss Environmental Degradation Extreme Weather Events

Abrupt Climate Change

Increased Temperatures

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…and What Will Cause the Eruption?

Understanding Dynamic Feedbacks and Connections

David Robson, Scottish Government, 2009

What underlying forces are we not thinking about? Probably a great many. Many of these are global problems, whose effects multiply quickly and unpredictably in a complex system. 10

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Glacier Melt and Polar Ice Loss

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Gangotri Glacier Himalayas

Melting polar ice is the proverbial canary in the coal mine for planetary health. In the last two years alone, developments not anticipated by the world’s most respected climate change scientists have occurred, including far faster-than-expected ice melting in the Arctic and other regions.

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 Multiple – Unexpected – Systemic - Interconnected threats  Traditional approaches to analysis and collection are insufficient

Disrupted Disrupted Agriculture Agriculture New Disease New Disease Patterns Patterns Stressed Stressed Migration Migration Social Social Turmoil Turmoil Energy Energy Scarcity Scarcity Trade Trade Disruption Disruption Economic Economic Volatility Volatility Boost Boost Grievances Grievances Boosting Boosting Radicalisation Radicalisation Rising Sea Rising Sea Levels Levels Physical Physical Infrastructure Infrastructure Threats Threats Increased Increased temperatures temperatures Climate Climate Change Change Resource Resource conflicts conflicts Organised Organised Crime Crime Biodiversity Biodiversity Loss Loss Food Food shortages shortages Disrupted Disrupted State State Authority Authority

Energy and Environmental Security . . . a Global security challenge

Food riots in Haiti Afghanistan ... UN food aid

Challenge

Water Scarcity, Food Security, and Conflict

Drought, food, water scarcity, conflict and high prices do not happen in isolation. They reinforce each other in non-linear, unexpected ways. Their interconnectedness can lead to widespread consequences in the wake of systems failures.

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Understanding risks and potential consequences: Key to adaptability and foresight

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Imagine for a moment what your life would be like if you did not know what a “red light” meant at an intersection. What’s our equivalent for understanding the visual symbols related to energy and environmental consequences? 13

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Global & co-evolutionary Recombinant international networks “Bottom-up” organization Collaborative foresight techniques Public sphere

Principles:

International partnership - US initiated On-line platform and face-to-face Participants from many nations Projects emphasizing how to factor risks and uncertainties into assessments Unclassified, open, multidisciplinary

Implementation So Far:

Deploying Systems For Open Global Engagement: Connecting Across Boundaries

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14 We’re working to develop new capacities for a globally interdependent world. We’re creating new communities of strategic insight and expertise, working to translate the best of science into security-related consequences and

• pportunities.

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President Obama Calls for New Capacities

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Earlier this year, President Obama said we need “to understand the world as it is to develop the capacities that we need to confront emerging danger and to act with purpose and pragmatism to turn this moment of peril into one of promise.” Source: Speech at National Defense University in early 2009 http://www.flickr.com/photos/whitehouse/3594694575/sizes/l/in/set- 72157619416255803/ White House Official Flickr Photostream

Resiliency and Foresight: New Capacities for Energy and Environmental Security

 Re-perceiving security within a global framework  Networking globally and collaboratively as a first resort  Assembling diversity of talent globally  Visualizing the “whole” for enhanced resilience  Overcoming cognitive/organizational barriers to foresight and risk assessment  Deploying systems for open global engagement

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There is structure beneath the chaos. Our work requires developing new capacities for a radically changed security paradigm the outlines of which are not yet clear, let alone broadly shared and accepted as reality. Image: Rubber bands, Getty Images 16

Global Concerns, Global Responses Global Responsibility

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Beta-testing New Capacities for Global Strategic Foresight and Action

These challenges must be considered through a global lens, not a usual perspective applied by traditional national security organizations. They require new capacities for connecting across boundaries—national,

• rganizational, generational, and disciplinary boundaries.

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“A turkey is fed for a 1000 days - every day confirms to its statistical department that the human race cares about its welfare ‘with increased statistical significance’. On the 1001st day, the turkey has a surprise.”

Nassim Nicholas Taleb ‘The Fourth Quadrant, a map of the limits of statistics’, The Edge, 15 SEP 2008

• 120
• 100
• 80
• 60
• 40
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Anatomy of a Blow-up

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Risk Models Masking Risk: A Common Problem

Another area of focus for us is the challenge of communicating about risks of abrupt change in systems. Inputs to risk models tend to be based on past experience and can induce a false sense of security about the future, as exemplified by Taleb’s example of a turkey’s abrupt ending. [Climate models don’t incorporate poorly understood feedback mechanisms, like methane release from thawing permafrost, for instance.] 18

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Resiliency in Advance of Disaster

It’s what we least expect that can be most threatening to our national and global security. Diversity of participation in government and non-government partnerships is key to enhanced societal resiliency. Images: Midwest Floods - NASA MODIS; France Riot – AP; CA Fires – NASA; Hurricane Andrew Damage – NOAA; Mudslide/boulder – NY Times; Ship and Storm – Unknown; Hurricane – NOAA; al Shabab – AP Photo; Iraqi Oil Fire – International Business Times;

http://globaleese.org/

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Deploying Systems For Open Global Engagement

 Connect to people: discussion forum with links to articles and documents  Synthesize assessments: ability to ‘rate’ posted documents and articles  Generate insights: threaded conversations  On 24/7 - RSS feeds to your homepage  Coming soon: Library/ Bibliography and a 'Question Stream'  Connect to people: discussion forum with links to articles and documents  Synthesize assessments: ability to ‘rate’ posted documents and articles  Generate insights: threaded conversations  On 24/7 - RSS feeds to your homepage  Coming soon: Library/ Bibliography and a 'Question Stream'

In response to these challenges, we’re beta-testing an online forum complementing face-to-face meetings. We call this an “ecosystem” : it emphasizes diversity of participation and talent. I hope our vision of a global foresight common, is large enough to match the scale of the challenges we’re

• facing. Thank you.

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