S1 Submission on Renewables Bryan Leyland MSc, FIPENZ, FIEE, FIMechE - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

S1 Submission on Renewables

Bryan Leyland MSc, FIPENZ, FIEE, FIMechE Consulting Engineer www.bryanleyland.co.nz Most of my professional life has been involved in renewable electricity generation I have:

• been responsible for many of the small hydro schemes in NZ since

1970

• involved in most of the large hydro schemes in NZ
• worked on biofuels, tidal power, windpower
• familiar with wave, tidal stream, and solar power schemes
• provided expert evidence on the economics of windpower

projects in New Zealand I am operator and part owner of a 920 kW small hydro scheme in Golden Bay I see no need for special policies to promote renewables - apart from fixing the RMA!

S2 The characteristics of windpower

• Unpredictable
• the output fluctuates rapidly on a relatively short timescale
• it cannot be predicted more than a few hours ahead
• calm periods sometimes exist all over New Zealand
• no more than 5-10% can be relied on to be available over winter

peak demand periods

• the timing cannot be predicted accurately
• The capacity factor is low - 35 to 40% in New Zealand,

20-30% overseas

• Windpower is at a maximum in the springtime

and a minimum during the autumn and early winter peak demand periods

S3 High demand and not much wind

Wind

S3 High demand and not much wind

Wind

Not much wind power Price spike at peak demand

S4

Jan May August Dec

Power from a 184 MW windfarm in 2008

Measured every 30 minutes Wind can’t give us a reliable and economic supply

The current cost of windpower is $3100/kW and >12c/kWh The current cost of geothermal is $4500/kW and ~9c/kWh

Manorburn pumped storage scheme

• 1000 - 1500

MW

• 400% increase

in existing hydro storage

• Storage and

backup for dry years and~1500 MW of wind

• Cost $2-$3

billion

• Uneconomic

under present market

Nuclear/windpower comparison

• Notional 5000 MW isolated system
• Cost of supply from nuclear power plus

conventional pumped storage

• Nuclear power is a baseline that is viable anywhere in

the world

• In New Zealand, geothermal, coal, gas or hydro would

probably be cheaper

• Cost of supply from windpower plus long-

term pumped storage

Nuclear Plus Pumped Storage 8.6c

Windpower + pumped storage 14.7c

S5 Cost of Windfarms

80 % of the time the output was below 130 MW (70%)

S6

S7 Output from 184 MW NI Windpower

Low output in critical dry period

S8 Tidal stream power

• SeaGen prototype

weighs 1000 tonnes.

• Delivered full power

(1200 kW) in December 08 but does not seem to have completed three months reliable

• peration
• Seems to be further

ahead than anyone else

S9 Kaipara Tidal Stream Power

S10 Pelamis - Sea snake

• Deployed in

Portugal last year and now abandoned for “financial and technical reasons”

• Originally

developed by Prof Normal Bellamy at Coventry University in the

• 1980s. He

abandoned it in favour of “Sea Clam” - a much

S11 Olmedilla Solar Voltaic Farm

• 60 MW for $530

million = $8800/ kW

• ~85 GWh pa
• ~60/c/kWh
• Loses 60%
• utput on a

cloudy day and 100% every night

• Subsidy = 560%
• f wholesale

price for 20+ years!

• A lot of glass to

clean!

S12 Kalpasar Project, India

This scheme is not economic - in spite of 8-9m tides!

S12 Kalpasar Project, India

This scheme is not economic - in spite of 8-9m tides!